Curiously, stellar erstwhile apprentice Evin Roman makes no appearance in any of the four stakes races.

Transcription

1 californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Saturday, March 10, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers First, a diligent subscriber pointed out that I had the wrong odds for Spokane Eagle on Thursday I apologize, what happened is that I handicap odds-blind as you know, poring over the preliminary DRF. Then I go back and write in the odds from the later DRF AFTER my handicapping is done. Well, my handwriting is lousy so I misread the odds on that one sorry I am sure you ladies and gents caught that, scratched your head, and said WTH? or something similar I will make sure I print clearer to myself in the future In case you were wondering, that was my first lifetime mistake I guess I might be human after all lol Now to Saturday s exciting card there are eleven races, and there are four stakes races, among them three graded races, including The San Felipe. As I reported previously, the latter race is a qualifying race for that race that takes place the first Saturday in May---the Kentucky Derby--- only eight weeks away. Mike Smith watch: he actually has six mounts today, including mounts in two of the graded races (notably, Om), and The China Doll in addition. Jorge Castellano watch: As you know, this East Coast (Belmont, Saratoga and the like) phenom often travels westward for the big races. Today is no exception, as he appears in not less than six races on my count, including all three graded races plus the The China Doll. We can debate whether the jockey makes the race, or the horse makes the jockey (I prefer the latter), but there is obviously something to be said for having a rider like Castellano (or Mike Smith, or Rafael Bejarano, or Kent Desormeaux, or Cory Nakatani, to name a few) in the irons. Curiously, stellar erstwhile apprentice Evin Roman makes no appearance in any of the four stakes races. Have a winsome day!

2 Note: The first post time today is 12:00 pm PST, 3:00 pm EST Saturday, March 10, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races?

3 Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty calendar-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY S FREE SELECTIONS : Races 1, 2 and 4 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! RACE 1: Three of thirteen potential entries have raced on turf, and only one has raced in a turf sprint Big Buzz sports a string of stellar works, including five furlongs at a bullet 59 4 here a couple of weeks ago, he carries a quintessential Left Coast rider and has hit the board in four of six turf races, albeit, routes. Frenchman Street is the [vulnerable] M/L favorite, as he hit the board at race distance ( RD ) last time out (he is the only entry to have done so), he carries the excellent apprentice Evin Roman, he of the enduring and endearing five-pound weight allowance (collectively, the

4 Roman factor ). Well-rested Desert Stone is a fine Irish lad, born and bred on the county green (County Westmeath), next to Big Buzz, he has the most turf race experience, all routes, he moves here from the East, shows worthy [dirt] work and carries five pounds less of a rider than most of the other entries. Likeable Longshot: Goodwillambassador (M/L 15/1) is worthy of beer money in the form of a win/place bet: he hit the board in his debut, a dirt sprint, and picked turfmaster Cory Nakatani for his first venture onto the grass. RACE 2: Blame the Rider (and not the handicapper!) moves down considerably class-wise, the colt shows decent works and decent connections, and is the sole entry with racing experience. McKale is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s) as the M/L favorite, as the first-time starter is trained by a legend as much as a man, of course he exhibits the stellar Baffert-esque works, such as six furlongs at a fantastic bullet 1:11 1 just ten days ago, he has a great shot in this field. Super Sol, the other Baffert entry, naturally shows creditable works and carries the undersung Joe Talamo. Likeable Longshot: Speaking of stellar workouts, how can we ignore those of Stay Golden (M/L 30/1!), I don t know much about his connections, but his string of very good works suggests to me that he can battle here (dilly dilly!). ***** RACE 4: The Triple Bend, G I, Seven Furlongs on the Main Track Edwards Going Left, a halfback in high school, looking for his first graded race victory, has only won seven of eleven lifetime races, and six of ten dirt races, plus he has won two of four at RD, and never missed the board at such, look for him to battle. Well-rested City of Light is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s) as the M/L favorite, as he sports a string of transcendent works, comes off a graded race win at RD here last December, and shows very good connections, watch him. Giant Expectations has done his best work in the dirt route (e.g., check out that 106 Beyer last a mile and one-sixteenth), his string of works is absolutely stupendous and he carries a top-tier rider to boot.

5 Likeable Longshot: In a mere six-horse field, we have Horse Greedy attached to a M/L of 20/1, he has won three of eleven races, and comes off a win at RD here last month, and please do observe those works, including four furlongs at a bullet 46 4 six furlongs at a bullet 1:12 4, I d say dilly dilly ***** ***** californiawinning.com NOTE: For additional totally free races from today s racing card, and other free expert handicapping information, go to californiawinning.com OR BETTER YET---WHY NOT SUBSCRIBE?- IT S LESS THAN $1 PER DAY LESS THAN WHAT THE TOUTS CHARGED FOR THEIR CARD WHEN THIS TRACK OPENED ON DECEMBER 25, 1934 FOR TODAY S FULL RACE CARD FOR THE MERE SUM OF $2, OR, BETTER YET, TO SUBSCRIBE FOR 30 CALENDAR DAYS ANALYSIS FOR ONLY $20 GO TO californiawinning.com AND CLICK ON TODAY S FULL RACE CARD TO MAKE A PAYMENT. As soon as I receive notice of your payment from PayPal I will forward the full race card selections to you, promptly, I assure you. Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?

6