THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on and also check

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1 THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on and also check 10/29/17 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO I can t believe the Autumn Meet is coming to an end, but we ve got an awesome $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4 to close out the proceedings. Let s see if we can keep adding to our Breeders Cup bankroll. Note that it s an 11-race card again today, so first post is an early 12:15 pm, and the Late Pick 4 begins in Race 8. LEG 1 (R8): The ultimate Late Pick 4 of the meeting begins with a full field of twelve $12.5K beaten-claimers going 5.5-furlongs on the main track. While this condition is often unreliable, I m having a hard time looking beyond the logical runners in here. #1 CAL CAL LI GOWCHIS (7/2) makes his first start for the greatest trainer in the world, Genaro Vallejo, who is lighting it up this year despite having only a handful of starters. His charge has plenty of early zip, so all the aggressive Frey has to do is get him out of the gate. That said, he was 7/5 against similar types at LRC last time and he gave up the ghost late (though he did set a hot pace). GRADE: B. #2 LIBERATION (6/1) has been double-digit odds and was well-beaten in his two tries against winners (albeit tougher ones than this). He too gets a weight-break today (7-pounds) while coming off a brief freshening. He should get a good tracking trip in here, so he s not impossible, but he ll need to pick things up quite considerably to beat the best in here. GRADE: C. #3 YO LA TENGO (10/1) has a great name for indie rock fans, but this 3-year-old couldn t beat lesser at Ruidoso back in August, so he ll need to improve leaps and bounds to beat the fastest runners in here while making his first start for Chuck Treece. Note that this guy tuned up with works at Turf Paradise, so Treece must think he can be competitive here. I m not so sure. GRADE: X. #4 PROUDTOBESICILIAN (30/1), believe it or not, looks class-compromised at this low level, unable to beat even weaker foes at Los Al. GRADE: X. #5 JULIA S SUMMER (50/1): ditto. GRADE: X. #6 BLACK TIE N TAILS (3/1) hasn t been seen since December, when he faltered against slightly tougher as the even-money favorite. Don t let the drop concern you, however, since we re dealing with Peter Miller and he always spots them aggressively off the bench. I m sure this guy will be ready to fire. GRADE: A. #7 CAMMY S MUSIC (15/1) was 13/1 at this level last time, and he ran half a race due to a wide journey and a tricky 6.5-furlong distance. He s better than that, and he should get a good stalking trip today but he will need to run a career best against the top ones in here. GRADE: X. #8 MT. LEINSTER (12/1) was 34/1 at this level last time when coming off a freshening to try 8.5- furlongs. He stalked inside and then stopped like he got shot. His sprint try before that wasn t any better. That said, he s in good hands with Spawr, and check out Spawr s route-to-sprint numbers: a silly 45 percent. GRADE: C.

2 #9 ONE I M RUNNING TO (5/2) would appear to have this field over a barrel, dropping in after running well against more expensive foes in his last two starts. Roman and his 5-pounds stick around, and this guy s speed means he ll be able to get position early despite this wide post. GRADE: A. #10 TRUE RANGER (10/1) is a steady check earner, but he truly lacks the eye of the tiger, always settling for the minor awards, even at this low level. His inside neighbor beat him easily in the spring, so unless this guy is a different horse off the August layoff, then the minor awards are his ceiling. GRADE: X. #11 SPIRIT WORLD (50/1) has been beaten a city block plenty of times at the bottom. GRADE: X. #12 SMARTY MOON (30/1) makes his first start for Oscar Garcia after breaking his maiden for William Delia at the $5K level at Oak Tree Pleasanton. I don t think the barn change or the circuit switch are positives here. GRADE: X. LEG 2 (R9): Today s feature is an incredible renewal of the $100K Autumn Miss (G3), a one-mile turf affair for 3- year-old fillies. There are plenty of talented ladies in here with lots of upside, so it s likely the winner will be the one who gets the best trip in a field filled with evenly matched, talented gals. For what it s worth, I m against the top-two morning-line choices in here. #1 KATHY S SONG (15/1), the first of three Baltas trainees, just lost to a few of these, but that race came down the hill, while two back, this gal looked good beating older N2X runners (including a next-out winner). Toss her Del Mar Oaks (G1) three back where she ran into a roadblock, and you re looking at a gal who has some sneaky form and who should get the right stalking trip from the rail. One negative: Talamo sticks with another. GRADE: A. #2 MISS SOUTHERN MISS (6/1) also just lost to a few of these in that downhill race (where she was improbably the favorite), but she was coming off a February layoff, yet she came home respectably, suggesting she could easily move forward big-time today. She s run against some very nice dirt fillies, but she does have a win at a mile on turf, so she s versatile. I expect a big run from her today at a nice price. GRADE: A. #3 BEAUTIFUL BECCA (20/1) got a perfect set-up last time to beat N1X sophomores going a mile over this course. It was a nice race, and she showed a decent stretch run, but the waters get much deeper today. GRADE: X. #4 TAPPED (6/1), the second Baltas runner, has untapped potential, but I m thinking today might be the day she puts it all together to win a graded-stakes race. In her three recent starts, Smith has done her zero favors by losing touch with the field before allowing this gal to run and she does have a nice stretch run. I don t think we ve seen the best of her, and I have to think that Smith will be a bit more tactical stretching out from the same downhill race that a bunch of these just ran in. GRADE: A. #5 CHOCOLATE COATED (12/1) is an honest gal who has won on turf (downhill) and on dirt (routing), but she faces stakes foes for the first time so we ll see what she s made of today. With so many other talented runners in here, this gal seems up against it (although she did just beat elders going down the hill). GRADE: X. #6 STORM THE HILL (6/1) just headed a bunch of these in that downhill stakes race, closing nicely to get the job done. And while she does have a win at a mile, I think she s a better downhill horse, since the one time she tried a mile against graded-stakes foes, she lacked the same punch. GRADE: X. #7 DOMESTIC VINTAGE (20/1) just beat older N1X runners at 11/1. It was a nice performance, as she was parked wide the whole time yet still finished with run, coming home in under :23 seconds. She still has room to improve under Drysdale s tutelage, and it s nice to see Talamo stick around (since he had options) but we ll see how this gal stacks up against some proven stakes runners. GRADE: C. #8 SPIN ME A KISS (10/1) is a Cal-bred who has done nothing wrong since stepping on turf. In fact, she almost beat open company in the Unzip Me down the hill, but she was run down by a few of these. Her speed makes her dangerous and she has done nice work while routing but there will be

3 some pressure on her, and it s unlikely she ll have enough to fend off some serious stretch-runners in her first try against graded-stakes foes. GRADE: X. #9 MEADOWSTREET (4/1) has plenty of speed, and with Roman in the irons, I suspect he ll send and keep the pressure on Spin Me a Kiss. This gal was right there in the lane in the 9-furlong Del Mar Oaks (G1), but she was overtaken late after being rank early. She ll appreciate the cutback today, and she s bred to be a top-class runner, but I don t think the race sets up for her and Desormeaux must agree since he ends up elsewhere. I m shocked at the 4/1 morning-line here. GRADE: X. #10 REVERSE (15/1), the third Baltas runner, makes her first SoCal start after a strange career at Woodbine, where she was running against claimers before she was finally protected to win an N1X before running third in the Ontario Cotillion (G3). That form won t cut it against these, but how many times have we seen mediocre East Coast form transfer very well on the West Coast especially for Baltas. GRADE: B. #11 LULL (7/2) brings more speed to the proceedings, exiting sprint races and having to break from an outside post. Prat won t get in a duel, but he will have to use her early to gain position and stalk the front-runners. The bigger problem, however, is that this gal is not her best around two turns, so she ll have to do something she hasn t been able to do before and that s win around two turns. She s definitely talented, but there are hurdles here, and 7/2 on the morning-line isn t very appealing. GRADE: X. #12 BERNINA STAR (30/1) is 0-for-1 on turf and will have to work out a trip from a tough post. This seems like a tall order. GRADE: X. #13 SANDY S SURPRISE (20/1) is also 0-for-1 on turf, and will probably end up pushing the pace with her dirt speed and having to break from this post. With Espinoza in the irons, this gal is likely to run two miles from this post. GRADE: X. #14 ALMOST CARLA (20/1) has won three in a row, all on or near the pace, so what choice does Elliott have but to gun hard? She also has some serious class questions she ll need to answer. GRADE: X. LEG 3 (R10): Today s third leg doesn t get any easier, since this $40K optional-claiming/n1x for fillies and mares going 6-furlongs on the main track has often produced some fuzzy results the last few years. There are no standouts in here, and we ve got several ladies who could or could not fire. #1 DR LIZ (12/1) is a Louisiana-bred making her first SoCal start for a barn who typically races them into shape, so I m okay watching one, since this gal is coming off a March layoff. GRADE: X. #2 ADIOS CALI (30/1) was 70/1 at this level last time when routing. Before that, she beat entrylevel Cal-breds going 5.5-furlongs at LRC, so she seems class-compromised in here. She s for route-tosprint players only it would seem. GRADE: X. #3 MEANIE IRENIE (6/1) is a 3-year-old coming off an April layoff after being eased in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. The fact that they thought enough of her to try her there must count for something in this wide-open race. GRADE: B. #4 BOWIE (3/1) was a hero just for one day back in July of last year, blasting off and wiring seven other maidens at Saratoga at 5/2. She cost $750K back in 2014, so big things were expected of her, but unfortunately, she hasn t been seen since that maiden-breaker, so we ll see how she deals with such a long layoff while making her first start for Papa Mandella. GRADE: B. #5 STEALTH DRONE (5/1) was just claimed for $25K back in July but hasn t made it back to the races since the claim and that s not a good sign. On the plus side, Mulhall brings her back above the purchase price, so either she has a lot of confidence or she s using this as a prep before dropping her at Del Mar, where she actually cleared her N1X hurdle many moons ago. There was a time when she d look really good against these, and do note that she was 2/1 at this level two back when Hollendorfer (who

4 had her then) couldn t win anything. She s a little interesting in here as a proven veteran against several unknowns. GRADE: A. #6 EMPRESS RULES (50/1) has been well-beaten in all three of her tries against winners. GRADE: X. #7 SHEZROXIIE (10/1) has never run a bad race, but she s a 5-year-old race mare who has been plagued by injuries, never able to string races together in her brief career. She s run well on turf, but this will be her first start on dirt, so who knows what to expect from her but take solace in the fact that she s hit the board in all four of her career starts, so she at least knows her job. GRADE: X. #8 DISCATONTHESQUARE (10/1) is 0-for-8 at today s distance, but she does have five placings, so she s a steady check-earner. She s been stuck at this condition for a very long time, but today she faces a field with a ton of question marks. What you see is what you get but that might be just good enough in here. GRADE: A. #9 RUBY TRUST (5/1) looked great breaking her maiden back in December going 5.5-furlongs, but something clearly went amiss in her first try against winners, where she ran half a race at 3/1 and then disappeared for a while. She s coming off a February layoff for a trainer who has had limited stock the last few years but who was always capable. The works seem solid for this comeback. GRADE: B. #10 MARLEY S FREEDOM (5/2) wired 11 other maidens at Del Mar to graduate at 29/1. She happened to catch a very speed-favoring track that day, so we ll see how she does today facing winners for the first time and having to break from this far outside post. She s not likely to be on the lead today, so she ll have to pass horses for the first time in her career as well and at 5/2 on the morning-line, I m not excited. GRADE: B. LEG 4 (R11): We end the meet with a full field of Cal-bred 2-year-old fillies going 6.5-furlongs down the hill in this Maiden Special Weight. As you can imagine, it s a pretty competitive affair. #1 AN EDDIE SURPRISE (6/1) debuts for O Neill, and the rail is always a tricky place for any runner, let alone a 2-year-old filly. I do love me some Square Eddie offspring over this course, but I have to watch one today. GRADE: X. #2 LUCKY LULA (30/1) cost less than a used car last year, and she hasn t done much on the track. She hops on turf for the first turf, so I m okay letting her beat me. GRADE: X. #3 BELLA STYLE (5/1) is certainly bred for the turf, so I have to think this was the game-plan all along since Bejarano sticks around after two leg-stretchers sprinting on dirt. GRADE: B. #4 DIXIE LASSIE (30/1) couldn t beat $30K maiden-claimers in her debut, being sent off at 101/1. She did finish third, but this is a whole other wheel of cheese. GRADE: X. #5 FUNNY BEAN (30/1) should appreciate the turf as a daughter of Square Eddie, but she just lost to Cal-bred $50K maidens and the connections don t exactly inspire. That said, her September debut at LRC wasn t half-bad. GRADE: X. #6 LUCKY OUTCOME (15/1) dueled through quick splits in her debut and predictably weakened. That speed will come in handy down the hill, and it s nice to see Maldonado stick around despite that last-place finish. Turf shouldn t be an issue, and she should run much better today with that experience run under her belt. GRADE: B. #7 FANTASTIC CHLOE (8/1) was up against it in her debut when she drew the 10-hole going a mile at Del Mar. She was off slowly and never really got into the race. Glatt runners do much better with a race or two, so it wouldn t shock me if this gal showed up with a much-improved effort today. GRADE: B. #8 SUPER PATRIOT (10/1) takes off the blinkers and tries turf for the first time for Baffert two red flags. GRADE: X.

5 #9 X S GOLD (6/1) was 30/1 in her debut, where she stalked and weakened going 6-furlongs on dirt. I like the surface switch and the move to Desormeaux and Cassidy runners fare much better second time around. GRADE: B. #10 CARRIE S SUCCESS (5/2) has finished second twice on the dirt two decent races, but note that she was favored each time yet still didn t win. That said, she had trouble in her debut, and last time, she was hooked wide the whole time. D Amato wins a lot of downhill races, so I see no reason why this gal won t have a say in the outcome today. GRADE: A. #11 TRIBAL DANCE (12/1), the second Glatt runner, is a first-time starter by Tribal Rule, whose progeny have always done well over this course. That said, Glatt doesn t often have them fully cranked, so perhaps this gal will need one today. GRADE: X. #12 LUCKY AT THE BAY (6/1) debuts for Sise, who has done good work with his first-time starters the last few years. She s also out of a mare who produced a whole slew of runners, a few of whom did nice work on the green. It s never easy to win at first-asking down the hill, but at least this gal should get a good in-the-clear trip if she s fit and ready. GRADE: C. #13 SHE S A GAMBLER (50/1) (AE) couldn t beat $32K maidens at Fresno, so she s in very tough today. She cost less than a nice laptop last year, so not much is expected of her. GRADE: X. #14 CARPATHIA (12/1) (AE), the second D Amato runner, ran half a race in her debut, going 5.5- furlongs at LRC at 6/1. She should move forward off that, since she s bred to handle the green. She will need to step it up, however, to best her stablemate (who already has her on form). GRADE: C. SUGGESTED WAGER I know today s Matrix is an expensive $140, but it s closing day, so why not take a shot, especially since we are against some of the obvious runners. If you want to invest less, $126 will get you all A s with two B s, while $47 will get you all A s with one B. Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at Keep in mind: I don t add Also Eligibles to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!

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