THE ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY
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1 Bet This, Not That: By Mike Hogan FEBRUARY 23, 2015 With less than 10 weeks remaining until the first Saturday in May, much of the focus in the racing world has turned to the 3-year-olds. There are 14 races remaining for these horses to earn points in their bid to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, and with over 400 horses nominated for the Triple Crown, the competition for these points will be fierce. DRF allows you to see the full lifetime past performances of horses that have run in the past five years for any trainer that has horses entered. Using, let s look at some prominent trainers with multiple horses targeting the Run for the Roses. With the exception of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park, the remaining points races are dirt routes, so we ll just focus on how these trainers have done recently in dirt route graded stakes with 3-year-old males. Of course, these stats include races run later in the 3-year-old year, after the Triple Crown events, but it will still point out which trainers have had success with these types of horses, and which tend to get overbet. TODD PLETCHER , $2.19 ROI last 5 years with 3YO males in dirt Triple Crown Nominees: 34 Key Contenders: Carpe Diem, Competitive Edge, Daredevil, Itsaknockout, Far From Over, Khozan, Madefromlucky Neutral: Pletcher s barn is usually loaded with talented young colts, and this year is no exception. Pletcher s baseline stats are formidable (25% winners, $1.72 ROI), and his numbers in our query are generally in line with that baseline. There is a lower win rate in exchange for a better ROI, but it s worth noting that the ROI is skewed by Danza s $84 shocker in last year s Arkansas Derby. Danza s win aside, most of those winners were shorter prices, with exactly half of them going off as the favorite, nine of them as odds-on favorites. Pletcher s 20% win rate in these races makes him tough to ignore, but aside from a few outliers it can be tough to find winners at square prices. And remember, his career numbers in the Kentucky Derby ( , $0.23 ROI) do not instill confidence BOB BAFFERT , $2.09 ROI last 5 years with 3YO males in dirt Triple Crown Nominees: 15 Key Contenders: Dortmund, American Pharoah, Lord Nelson In American Pharoah, Baffert trains the reigning Eclipse winner for 2-year-old males, and Dortmund is among the early favorites for the Derby. As usual, Baffert looks loaded. His baseline numbers are eerily similar to Pletcher, at 25% winners and $1.72 ROI, but in these races Baffert improves on both his win rate and ROI. Like Pletcher, Baffert s 3-year-old males get bet heavily in dirt route graded stakes, and 22 of his 32 winners went off as the favorite, including nine at even-money or lower. Baffert is particularly dangerous in Derby All statistics as of February 23, 2015
2 preps at Oaklawn ( , $3.77 ROI last 5 years), so it s not surprising he s pointing American Pharoah to the Rebel Stakes there for his 3-year-old debut. CHAD BROWN last 5 years with 3YO males in dirt route graded stakes. Triple Crown Nominees: 24 Key Contenders: Majestic Affair Brown s 24 Triple Crown nominees are second only to Pletcher, but with the injury of Remsen winner Leave the Light On, Brown is comparatively light in top contenders. Brown s baseline numbers are among the best in the business (26% winners, $1.79 ROI), but his strength has been horses going long on turf, not dirt. Aside from Brown being winless in dirt route graded stakes over the past five years with sophomore males, it s worth noting that 16 of those 19 runners went off at odds less than Brown gets some very well-bred horses and is too good not to break through sooner or later, but I d be wary of taking him at a short price in any of these races. STEVE ASMUSSEN , $0.86 ROI last 5 years with 3YO males in dirt Triple Crown Nominees: 13 Key Contenders: Bayerd, Bold Conquest, Tiznow RJ Neutral: Considering Asmussen s baseline stats with all runners over the past five years (20% winners, $1.50 ROI), his numbers in dirt route graded stakes with 3-year-old males seem a bit disappointing at first glance. However, those 16 runner-up finishes hint at a bit of bad luck, and a deeper look shows that five of those second-place finishers lost by a neck or less, including two such losses by Nehro in 2011 at odds of 9-1 and Interestingly, Asmussen has had recent success with these types in the first start following a layoff of 45 days or more ( , $2.04 ROI), but not in the third start after a layoff ( ). DALE ROMANS , $0.87 ROI last 5 years with 3YO males in dirt Triple Crown Nominees: 10 Key Contenders: Keen Ice, Idianaughty The baseline numbers for Romans (15% winners, $1.50 ROI) can actually be used as a fair baseline for all trainers in general. In dirt route graded stakes with three-year-old males, though, his numbers plummet. Just two winners (3%) in those races over the past five years, and one of those was a turf race at Saratoga that was moved to the main track. The other win was Shackleford s victory in the 2011 Preakness, and as Romans best runner in recent years, Shackleford also accounted for four of the seven runner-up finishes in the past five years. EOIN HARTY , $4.52 ROI last 5 years with 3YO males in dirt Triple Crown Nominees: 2 Key Contenders: My Johnny Be Good Harty doesn t run many 3-year-old males in dirt route graded stakes, and he only has two nominated to the Triple Crown this year, both of whom ran in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in January. However, even from a small sample, his runners have had a history of outrunning their odds, especially compared to Harty s baseline numbers (14% winners, $1.41 ROI). In addition to those three wins, he had Right to Vote run second at in the 2012 Peter Pan Stakes at odds of 47-1.
3 MIKE MAKER , $1.23 ROI last 5 years with 3YO males in dirt Triple Crown Nominees: 9 Key Contenders: International Star With two graded stakes wins to his credit, International Star is the points leader in the Run for the Roses and, assuming he stays sound, is a virtual lock to make the starting gate. Maker s baseline numbers (22% winners, $1.62 ROI) are strong, so his numbers in these races seem a bit tepid. Further analysis shows those seven wins came from three runners: two by Hansen (9th in the 2012 Kentucky Derby), three by Vicar s in Trouble (19th last year), and two by International Star. Also of note, Maker is with 3-year-old males in Grade 1 dirt routes over the past five years, including in the Kentucky Derby. NICK ZITO , $1.78 ROI last 5 years with 3YO males in dirt Triple Crown Nominees: 7 Key Contenders: Frammento At first glance, 12% winners and a $1.78 ROI in these races don t appear to jump out at you as a Bet This angle, but the win rate is similar to Zito s baseline numbers (13%) and the ROI is 33% higher than his baseline of $1.33. Even better, Zito has proven that his 3-yearold colts can outrun their odds in dirt route graded stakes, with seven of his 13 minor placings hitting the board at double-digit odds. Most recently, he ran third with Frammento in the Fountain of Youth. Also, seven of those that didn t win were beaten by less than one length, so with a little bit of luck, Zito s ROI with these runners would be easily in positive territory. KIARAN MCLAUGHLIN: , $0.88 ROI last 5 years with 3YO males in dirt Triple Crown Nominees: 8 Key Contenders: Classy Class, Frosted, Imperia, Ocean Knight In terms of Triple Crown nominees, McLaughlin s eight seem few compared to other top trainers, but he makes up for it in quality. Despite a disappointing weekend with off-the-board finishes from Frosted in the Fountain of Youth and Imperia in the Risen Star, McLaughlin still has some very well-regarded contenders. He is another trainer with strong baseline numbers (23% winners, $1.82 ROI), and his numbers with 3-yearold males in dirt route graded stakes dip sharply. Even worse, only one of those seven winners was not the favorite - Le Bernardin, whose win in the Grade 3 Pegasus in 2012 at Monmouth came at odds of 5-1. These are just a few examples of potential bets to target or avoid. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner that is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different plans available, priced for every budget. Better yet, try it for yourself; get two cards for a penny by using code BETTHIS at checkout.
4 EXAMPLES TODD PLETCHER LAST 5 YEARS WITH 3YO MALES IN DIRT ROUTE GRADED STAKES BOB BAFFERT LAST 5 YEARS WITH 3YO MALES IN DIRT ROUTE GRADED STAKES.
5 EXAMPLES CHAD BROWN LAST 5 YEARS WITH 3YO MALES IN DIRT ROUTE GRADED STAKES. STEVE ASMUSSEN LAST 5 YEARS WITH 3YO MALES IN DIRT ROUTE GRADED STAKES.
6 EXAMPLES EOIN HARTY LAST 5 YEARS WITH 3YO MALES IN DIRT ROUTE GRADED STAKES. NICK ZITO LAST 5 YEARS WITH 3YO MALES IN DIRT ROUTE GRADED STAKES.
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