SECRET BETTING CLUB FINK TANK FREE SYSTEM GUIDE DECEMBER 2013 UPDATE

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Jeremy Fleming
5 years ago
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1 SECRET BETTING CLUB FINK TANK FREE SYSTEM GUIDE DECEMBER 2013 UPDATE WELCOME TO THE FINK TANK FOOTBALL VALUE SYSTEM Welcome to this Free Fink Tank Football System Guide from the team at the Secret Betting Club, updated to include details of performance for the 2013/14 season as of the 1st December In this Free guide you can find the exact rules behind how the Basic Fink Tank Football Value System actually works and how you can use it to identify value football bets each week. You can also find out more on the 6 extremely profitable Advanced Systems available to all SBC members. As we now also have results data for the current 2013/14 season we also have the latest on the system's performance up until 1st December 2013 and the first 3 1/2 months of the season. If you enjoy this content and are after dedicated, independent help with your betting then please do consider a full Secret Betting Club membership. We believe so strongly in our ability to help you make more money betting, that we offer a full anytime money back guarantee if joining our service and not happy for any reason. Join the Secret Betting Club today Best Regards, Peter Ling Secret Betting Club Editor Read our blog: All content copyright Minerva Publishing Ltd. Free Advanced Fink Tank Tips On Facebook During the 2013/14 Season we are posting up free tips as selected from the 6 Advanced Fink Tank Systems exclusively on the Secret Betting Club Facebook page. Last season we made Profit At 25 Stakes from only 92 bets - highlighting the massive profits on offer via the Fink Tank System. To pick up each week's best tips simply LIKE the Secret Betting Club page on Facebook. Page 1

INTRODUCING THE BASIC AND 'ADVANCED' FINK TANK SYSTEMS This free guide will reveal to you the rules behind the Basic Fink Tank Football System and just how to use it to find excellent value football

Yet if you want to take this to the next level and are looking for further help in identifying the best value bets each week, then we also recommend the 6 Advanced Fink Tank systems available to all

2 INTRODUCING THE BASIC AND 'ADVANCED' FINK TANK SYSTEMS This free guide will reveal to you the rules behind the Basic Fink Tank Football System and just how to use it to find excellent value football tips each week. Yet if you want to take this to the next level and are looking for further help in identifying the best value bets each week, then we also recommend the 6 Advanced Fink Tank systems available to all Secret Betting Club members. These 6 Advanced Systems build on the Basic System rules and take it that much further - identifying the best value bets each weekend for you to follow. You can of course simply follow the Basic Fink Tank System (I will show you how shortly) but if keen to find out more on how these 6 Advanced Systems work, do read on... 2, PROFIT AT 10 STAKES The first of the 6 Advanced Systems is what we call our 'Win Value 15' System, which has an excellent record in all 4 of the top English leagues. From 2540 bets in the past 5 seasons, this Advanced System has made a profit of 2, at just 10 stakes, equating to a Return on Investment of 11.20%. At 25 stakes per bet, this becomes 7, and up to 14, if able to manage 50 stakes. As you can see from the graph below, this represents steady betting growth with a smooth profit curve over the 2540 bets from the past 5 seasons. To 25 Stakes the Win Value 15 System will have made over 7,000 profit during this period. Page 2

3 December 2013 Update This current 2013/14 season, the Win Value 15 System has continued to make profitable headway with a further 11.5 points profit from its first 94 qualifying bets. (Includes all bets up until the 1st December 2013) This equates to a Return on Investment of 11.2% and Return on Capital of 14.4% and at 25 stakes represents a further profit The strike-rate for success this season has been 23.4%, which is historically lower than the 27.2% we have seen in the past, so there is a case to suggest the system will improve as the season wears on. Nevertheless it has been a good start to the season for this Advanced system and we would encourage you all to check it out further! Highlighted winners for the Win Value 15 System this season include: Southampton to beat Liverpool at odds of 6.5 West Brom to beat Man Utd at odds of Newcastle to beat Chelsea at odds of 6.0 Tranmere to beat Bradford at odds of 6.0 Doncaster to beat QPR at odds of ADVANCED FOOTBALL SYSTEMS WITH 5 SEASONS OF PROFIT Each of the 6 Advanced Systems are based on results from over 10,000 games and use odds from the past 5 seasons across all 4 English divisions (Premier League, Championship, League 1 and League 2). They are all to fair achieved odds and are based on the Fink Tank ratings for each of these games so you know they are accurate. Even at simple 10 Stakes, the 6 Advanced Systems have made between and profit. To 25 stakes, this ranges from 3, up to 7, At 50 stakes, becomes as large as 14, if following the top-rated Win Value 15 System. Return on Capital (Betting Bank growth) ranges upwards to 553% - effectively 5 and 1/2 times growth of your initial starting fund. Below you can find the full rundown of just how profitable each of the 6 Advanced Systems actually are, based on results since the 2008/09 season. Page 3

TABLE KEY Return on Investment represents your overall profit on staking (i.e. a ROI of 11.20% suggests that for every 100 you stake, you make 11.20 on average).

4 TABLE KEY Return on Investment represents your overall profit on staking (i.e. a ROI of 11.20% suggests that for every 100 you stake, you make on average). Return on Capital indicates your betting bank growth - so a ROC of 553% suggests you would have grown your starting bank 5.53 times itself. A SYSTEM FOR EVERY KIND OF GAMBLER As we supply 6 different Advanced Systems for you to chose from, it does mean you should find something to suit all kinds of gamblers. Like to win at least 1 in every 2 bets you place? Both our AH Value Systems average over a 50% strike-rate - perfect it you hate losing! Like to find big priced outsiders? Our Win Value 20 System has a superb record at finding unfancied winners Like to make the biggest Return on Investment possible? Our Mix Value 20 System makes a whopping 13.20% - huge for any football system. So whether you enjoy backing favourites, big-priced outsiders or even Asian Handicaps, you can choose any of the 6 Fink Tank Advanced Systems that are suitable for you. You can find full details on each of these 6 Advanced Systems, how you can follow them yourself plus a lot more besides in the Full Fink Tank System Guide - available to Secret Betting Club members only. Next...The Free Fink Tank System Revealed! Page 4

THE BASIC FINK TANK SYSTEM HOW IT ALL WORKS This next section reveals the rules behind the Basic Fink Tank System and how it all works - plus how you can use it to pick out the best bets each week

5 THE BASIC FINK TANK SYSTEM HOW IT ALL WORKS This next section reveals the rules behind the Basic Fink Tank System and how it all works - plus how you can use it to pick out the best bets each week for free! The Fink Tank is a free football predictor that is provided by Dectech and sponsored by The Times newspaper. Fink Tank is named after Daniel Finkelstein who writes regular columns in The Times, although it was originally created by Henry Scott and Alex Morton. The Fink Tank uses shots on target as the basis for their prediction model and weight this based on certain factors such as home bias etc. With goals generally at a premium in football matches, a crossbar or dodgy penalty can mean a team undeservedly losing a game. A better judge of a team s dominance and ability is apparently the ratio of shots on goal a team both has themselves and concedes to their opponents. The higher incidence of shots, as opposed to goals, in a game, provides you with more data by which to assess a team s true strength. The more shots a team manages to create, the more goals it is likely to score, so the theory goes. Fink Tank provide their predictions in the form of estimated probabilities for the home win, draw and away win. These ratings are provided for the Premier League, Championship, League 1 and League 2 and can be accessed for the following week s fixtures at their website: An example of the data displayed on the website, is shown below. You can then compare the predicted percentages ( Home Pct, Draw Pct and Away Pct ) to the available odds to assess whether a particular game offers value. For example, for the Man Utd v Chelsea game, the Fink Tank percentages equate to the following odds: Man Utd 100/44.6 = 2.24 Draw 100/24.4 = 4.10 Chelsea 100/31.0 = 3.23 As we put pen to paper, the best odds available on the match are: Man Utd Draw Chelsea 2.50 [several bookmakers including BetVictor, Bet365 and 5Dimes] 3.42 [Pinnacle] 3.10 [Pinnacle, Coral] Page 5

6 As the odds available for a Man Utd win (2.50) exceed those indicated by the ratings (2.24), we might consider this option to be worth a bet. It s also worth clarifying here that the estimated value of this selection can be calculated as: Value (Man Utd win) = 2.50/2.24 = 0.116, or 11.6% 3 STEPS TO WORKING OUT THE BEST FINK TANK VALUE BETS If all of the above sounds a big complex, we have a simple 3 step guide to running the Fink Tank ratings against betting odds to find out where to bet! Its using an example from a game between Everton and Norwich as put forward by the Fink Tank's ratings, which you can see below. 1. Visit the Fink Tank page: and note the percentage chances for each team for the coming fixtures. In this example, Everton have a 65.2% chance of winning, Norwich a 14% chance and the draw a 20.8% chance 2. We then convert these percentages into odds by using the following simple calculation: 100 / percentage. So in our example this means the following: Everton = 100/65.2 = 1.53 Draw = 100/20.8 = 4.80 Norwich = 100/14 = ) Visit our favourite odds comparison site: and compare these odds with what the bookmakers are offering. If the odds on offer are greater than the odds from point 2) then you have a value bet. The greater the difference, the greater the value bet! For this game, the best odds on offer were as follows: Everton to win with Bet Victor. No value as the same as above (1.53) Draw with Pinnacle Sports. No value (actually -0.13) from the 4.80 needed above Norwich with Totesport. Big value with a pt increase from the 7.14 listed above In this example, the value lies with Norwich who the Fink Tank rate as 7.14, yet we can back at 8.00 with Totesport. Page 6

7 The Basic Fink Tank System really is as simple as that and you can repeat this simple exercise for each game to find out where the value lies! In most football games you will find that the Fink Tank will suggest a value bet and it's a great way of picking out the best bets each week! December 2013 Update This current 2013/14 season, the Basic Fink Tank System has also continued to prosper and make large profits for its followers on a consistent basis. Across all 4 English leagues so far this season (results up to 1st December 2013) backing every team which the Fink Tank suggests as value would have yielded the following: Bets: 1390 Wins: 415 Strike-Rate: 29.85% Profit: (if placing 1 on every bet) Upping your stakes on each bet to 25 would have made you a 2, profit so far this season...not bad for a free system! Don't forget you can select every single qualifying bet simply by using the explanation above and betting on any team where the Fink Tank suggests there is a positive value. Page 7

8 SOME MORE FINK TANK HELP If this whets your appetite, we have a few suggestions for the type of bets that historically have provided the greatest profit from the Basic Fink Tank System. The analysis below is based on the Basic Fink Tank System's performance across all 10,000+ games from the 4 English leagues between 2008 and We cross-referenced the odds available for each game with the Fink Tank ratings to find out exactly where its betting edge lies and how you can follow it to make money in various ways. INDIVIDUAL LEAGUES One area you might like to consider exploring is the best league for use with the Basic Fink Tank System as results over the five year period between have varied. Of all the top 4 English Leagues it is League 2 that has been the most successful with a 31.3% strike-rate and pts profit. Strangely enough as we go one step up the League Pyramid we actually see a loss from League 1 bets of -8 pts from 866 bets so far. It is also a great System for use in the Premier League, where it also has made a 96.1 pt profit and 10.8% ROI from 891 bets. What is noticeable is the massive jump in Average Odds to 5.94, which probably indicates the gulf in class at this level, where you can regularly find teams up against the likes of Man Utd, Chelsea and Man City as big as 15/1 some weeks. Below you can find the full rundown of the Basic Fink Tank System for each league for the past 5 seasons... League Bets Average Wins Strike Profit ROI Odds Rate Premier League % % Championship % % League % % League % % This of course is not to say that League 1 will not be profitable in the future and perhaps does suggest a degree of randomness in this particular division. We therefore would not rule out League 1 as a source of future profits but do recommend keeping a close eye on any bets placed in this league. Page 8

9 ODDS BANDS Another area ripe for exploration with the Fink Tank is in relation to the odds of the bets that you take on and whether or not you are best backing a team playing at home or away. As our research below shows, in some cases such as bets under 2.0 (evens) at home, from only 101 bets the profit is very marginal, which suggests that home favourites offer very little profit at all. On the flipside, all bets away from home look profitable, highlighting that as an area to focus in on. Those bets priced 4.5 (7/2) and over Away from home have made a combined profit of pts profit from over 1200 bets in the past 5 seasons. Home Odds Bets Average Wins Strike Profit ROI Odds Rate < % % 2.0 to % % 2.4 to % % 2.6 to % % % % Away Odds Bets Average Wins Strike Profit ROI Odds Rate < % % 2.8 to % % 3.5 to % % 4.5 to % % % % Page 9

10 WANT MO RE? 2 FURTHER WAYS TO BEAT THE BOOKIES THIS SEASON Well that's the Basic Fink Tank System explored, I do hope you have enjoyed reading what it has to offer and feel inspired to use it to help pick out your football bets next time out! If this Free Fink Tank Guide interests you then there are 2 more ways that you can follow it to a more advanced level - giving you even more chances to beat the bookie! They are... 1) Access 6 More 'Advanced' Fink Tank Systems With An SBC Membership Take your betting even further by following our 6 Advanced Fink Tank football systems (as outlined on pages 2 to 4). The full system rules and explanations are available ONLY to Secret Betting Club members. Sign-up now and gain instant access. 2) Follow A Selection of Tips FREE Via Our Facebook Page This season we are posting up free tips as selected from the 6 Advanced Fink Tank Systems exclusively on the Secret Betting Club Facebook page: Last season we made Profit At 25 Stakes from only 92 bets - highlighting the massive profits on offer via the Fink Tank System. To pick up each week's best tips simply LIKE the Secret Betting Club page on Facebook. Page 10

11 WHAT IS THE SECRET BETTING CLUB & HOW CAN WE HELP YOU? Established in May 2006, the Secret Betting Club is a 100% independent source for reporting, reviewing and monitoring the world of betting advice - tipsters, systems and strategies. We can point you in the direction of the best tipsters, systems and methods for making money betting. We do this via our: SBC Magazines Features independent reviews on all the latest and hottest tipsters, expert interviews, racing analysis plus free betting systems and strategies for you to follow. SBC Tipster Profit Reports Published 6 times a year, these unique reports contain our latest tipster ratings, including Hall of Fame listings and at a glance comparative league tables on over 50 different tipsters. Secret Betting System Guide - A powerful compendium of betting strategies and systems that really work and will make you money, including our much sought after 6 Fink Tank Football Systems with 5 years of proven profits (The whole guide is worth we give out away to all new members for free) A free copy of our Best Tipster Guide - featuring an in-depth report on the 7 best tipsters we have uncovered over the 7 years we have run the Secret Betting Club. Worth on its own! The Professional Gambler Blueprint - A comprehensive seven part guide to making your betting pay as written by pro punters. Worth again we give it away for free to all new members. Access to our dynamic forum rammed full of advice, free strategies and systems devised by some of our very shrewd members. Entry to the SBC Discount Club, providing you exclusive saving deals for many top tipsters that you just won t find anywhere else. Before you join any tipster check with us first to save money! Access to our outstanding 7+ year back catalogue full of our past reviews, features and profitable betting advice. The great news is that all of this currently available for the equivalent of just 22p per day and with a full money back guarantee if not in any way satisfied once you joined. CLICK HERE TO JOIN AND GAIN INSTANT ACCESS Page 11

12 DISCLAIMER & COPYRIGHT NO TICE The views expressed within this article are based on the authors experience alone. Any money used within the services mentioned is done so at the risk of the individual. If you are affiliated with any of the services mentioned and have any questions regarding the points we raise we welcome your correspondence. The Secret Betting Club is for information & education purposes only and does not represent financial advice. There is a risk of loss in betting. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is our intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, we cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgment whatsoever. Literary copyright for this document and all the articles herein are held by Minerva Publishing Limited. All content copyright Minerva Publishing Ltd. Registered Office: Drake House, Gadbrook Way, Northwich, Cheshire, CW9 7RA Page 12

Q&A interview between Matthew Walton and The Scotsman

Q&A interview between Matthew Walton and The Scotsman Q1. Your real identity is purposely kept secret and you re only known as The Scotsman, but without blowing your cover, can you tell me a bit more about