Glorious Goodwood Day 4:

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Martina Paul
5 years ago
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1 Glorious Goodwood Day 4: Glorious Stakes & Thoroughbred Stakes Trends & Pedigree Analysing the 2014 Glorious Stakes & Thoroughbred Stakes from an alternative viewpoint Guide by Badly Drawn Horse

2 Glorious Stakes (Group 3) 1 st August 1:55 Goodwood

3 Glorious Stakes: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 10 winners of the Glorious Stakes so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Glorious Stakes Trends 1 10/10 had 7 or more career starts 2 10/10 had 2 or more career victories 3 9/10 were aged 4, 5 or 6 4 9/10 had an OR of /10 top 2 finish last time out 6 9/10 ran within the past 43 days 7 9/10 were (IRE) or (GB) bred 8 8/10 had between 1 & 5 starts in season

4 2014 Glorious Stakes Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 10 winners of the Glorious Stakes to this year s entrants Tot HILLSTAR Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 8/8 BATTLE OF MARENGO Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 7/8 PETHERS MOON Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y 7/8 SONGCRAFT Y Y Y Y N N Y Y 6/8 AUSSIE REIGNS Y Y Y N N Y Y N 5/8 CAFÉ SOCIETY Y Y Y N N Y N Y 5/8 QUEST FOR PEACE Y Y Y Y N N Y N 5/8 ENCKE N Y Y Y Y N N N 4/8 Trend Follower(s) HILLSTAR

5 Glorious Stakes: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Glorious Stakes and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 10/10 had 14 points or more in their DP 8/10 had 18 points or more in their DP DI 10/10 had a DI of 0.77 or above 9/10 had a DI of 0.90 or above 0/10 had a DI above 2.47 CD 10/10 had a CD of or above 8/10 had a CD of 0.14 or above 0/10 had a CD above 0.58 DPA (6/10) - DQ - 2 / / PATB - 0

6 2014 Glorious Stakes Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit BATTLE OF MARENGO HILLSTAR / QUEST FOR PEACE / AUSSIE REIGNS ENCKE DQ CAFÉ SOCIETY Can t be discounted SONGCRAFT DQ Not ideal PETHERS MOON / Wide of the mark n/a

7 2014 Glorious Stakes: Pace & Draw analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace & Draw angle Draw Horse RS Running Style 8 BATTLE OF MARENGO CP/HU CP/HU 7 AUSSIE REIGNS HU HU 6 QUEST FOR PEACE CP/HU CP/HU 5 PETHERS MOON HU/CP HU/CP 4 SONGCRAFT CP/HU CP/HU 3 HILLSTAR HU/CP HU/CP 2 CAFÉ SOCIETY HU HU 1 ENCKE HU/CP HU/CP HU CP FR BATTLE OF MARENGO AUSSIE REIGNS QUEST FOR PEACE PETHERS MOON SONGCRAFT HILLSTAR CAFÉ SOCIETY ENCKE Nothing obvious on the pace-setting front here. BATTLE OF MARENGO has front-run in the past but recent tactics have been to hold him up so whether they want to revert back to old tactics is debatable. Here is the how the past 10 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-1 / cp-2 / hu-7

8 Glorious Stakes Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 10) HILLSTAR 10/10 (Non-Runner) BATTLE OF MARENGO 9/10 The next group consists of 6 horses on 7/10 (!?) so I m not going to try and pick them apart now Hillstar is a N/R. Most likely winner HILLSTAR would have definitely filled this slot so it s extremely disappointing he is now a N/R. Alternative(s) BATTLE OF MARENGO (D Simcock) This simply does not look much of a race with the fav out of it and as such I m happy to take a swipe at decent odds on this lad. He looked a serious player last year when with Aiden O Brien, winning the Derby trial at Leopardstown, finishing 4 th in the Derby by just under 2 lengths and then getting nabbed late on by Hillstar in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, and a return to any of those three bits of form would see him be bang there in this. He disappointed on his last start at Longchamp last season before finding himself with David Simcock (via the yard of Ernst Oertel). He had two starts at Meydan, which he clearly didn t enjoy, before making a return to these shores with a down the field effort in the Doom Bar Stakes at Newbury last month. That was his first run for over 4 months and he most likely needed it. That run will hopefully have brought him on and with him having a record of 1111 in fields of 7 or less ( in 8 or less fields) and a record of 3111 in Aug & Sept I ll take a punt he can bounce back to form here. In truth I ve probably written a hell of a lot for a horse that could easily bomb out but at hefty prices and with not too distant back class to fall upon I m happy to take a flyer on him.

9 Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) 1 st August 2:30 Goodwood

10 Thoroughbred Stakes: Winners Trends Analysis This section compiles the important trends of the past 12 winners of the Thoroughbred Stakes so that we can apply them to this year s entries. Thoroughbred Stakes Trends 1 12/12 were rated /12 had between 1 & 4 career victories 3 12/12 had at least 1 win as a 2yo 4 12/12 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out 5 11/12 had 4+ career runs 6 11/12 ran over 7f or 8f LTO 7 10/12 had 2+ runs in current season 8 10/12 had between 2 & 5 runs as a 2yo 9 10/12 had finished in the top 3 on debut 10 9/12 finished in the top 3 LTO

11 2014 Thoroughbred Stakes Entries: Trends Applied This section applies the important trends of the past 12 winners of the Thoroughbred Stakes to this year s entrants Tot SHIFTING POWER Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 10/10 HORS DE COMBAT N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 9/10 WINDFAST Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 9/10 LIGHTNING THUNDER Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N 9/10 BOW CREEK Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y 8/10 WANNABE YOURS N Y N Y Y Y Y Y N Y 7/10 WHAT ABOUT CARLO N Y Y Y Y N Y Y N N 6/10 RAPPROCHEMENT? Y N Y N Y N N Y Y 5/10? Trend Follower(s) SHIFTING POWER

12 Thoroughbred Stakes: Winners Pedigree Analysis This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 12 winners of the Thoroughbred Stakes and applies them to this year s entries. *Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse s pedigree. DP 12/12 had 14 points or more in DP 9/12 had 18 points or more in DP DI 12/12 had a DI of 1.29 or above 10/12 had a DI of 1.57 or above 1/12 had a DI above 2.78 CD 12/12 had a CD of 0.25 or above 11/12 had a CD of 0.33 or above 1/12 had a CD above 0.78 DPA (8/12) - DQ - 0 / / PATB - 0

13 2014 Thoroughbred Stakes Entries: Dosage Applied Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race Snug Fit LIGHTNING THUNDER / Can t be discounted HORS DE COMBAT SHIFTING POWER / BOW CREEK / RAPPROCHEMENT / Not ideal N/A Wide of the mark WANNABE YOURS DQ WHAT ABOUT CARLO / WINDFAST /

14 2014 Thoroughbred Stakes: Pace & Draw analysis Here we take a look at the race from a Pace & Draw angle Draw Horse RS Running Style 8 RAPPROCHEMENT FR FR 7 HORS DE COMBAT CP CP 6 WINDFAST CP CP 5 SHIFTING POWER CP/FR CP/FR 4 BOW CREEK CP/FR CP/FR 3 WANNABE YOURS CP CP 2 WHAT ABOUT CARLO CP CP 1 LIGHTNING THUNDER CP CP HU CP FR RAPPROCHEMENT HORS DE COMBAT WINDFAST SHIFTING POWER BOW CREEK WANNABE YOURS WHAT ABOUT CARLO LIGHTNING THUNDER RAPPROCHEMENT belted away from the front on debut last time out and there must be a chance that they take a similar approach here. The others won t be too far behind and this will probably be run at a decent lick. Here is the how the past 12 winners of the race have run in the race Running Style fr-4 / cp-5 / hu-3

15 Thoroughbred Stakes Summary Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 12) SHIFTING POWER 11/12 LIGHTNING THUNDER 11/12 BOW CREEK - 9/12 HORS DE COMBAT 9/12 Most likely winner SHIFTING POWER (R Hannon) This is a race the Hannon s target (3 winners in the last 10 renewals) and they have a strong contender here in the shape of Shifting Power. He has done precious little wrong in his career and a run to the level of any of his last 3 starts will surely see him take this. The 2000 Guineas form is clearly strong, form in the Irish 2000 Guineas is also pretty decent and it s hard to crab his G1 form in France last time out. His last two runs have been on fairly testing ground and this return to better should be more suitable and he rates as the one to beat. Alternative(s) BOW CREEK (M Johnston) This Shamardal colt ran a huge race in the Brittania Handicap at Royal Ascot last time out from a mark of 104 and deserves this first try at Group level. The Johnston horses have been in fine fettle this week and this is a race they have won twice in recent years so we can expect this lad to be primed for the occasion.

16 Only ever bet what you are happy to lose. Never put more on than you usually would just because you are winning. Please undertake sensible betting practices at all times. Visit to find out more about gambling. Please note that past performance should not be taken as a guarantee of future performance.

Qipco 2000 Guineas Analysis:

Qipco 2000 Guineas Analysis: Trends & Pedigree Analysing the Newmarket 2000 Guineas from an alternative viewpoint Guide by Badly Drawn Horse www.badlydrawnhorse.co.uk 2000 Guineas (Group 1) 30 th April