Compiling your own betting tissues

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Kelly O’Connor’
5 years ago
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Compiling your own betting tissues Compiling your own betting tissues is easier than you probably believe, but you will need some helpful resources and a framework to follow to begin with.

1: Preliminarily rank horses Firstly, you should preliminarily rank horses based on their likely chances of winning.

1 Compiling your own betting tissues Compiling your own betting tissues is easier than you probably believe, but you will need some helpful resources and a framework to follow to begin with. There are many different ways to compile a tissue, but the below framework is easy to follow and should help you get started. 1: Preliminarily rank horses Firstly, you should preliminarily rank horses based on their likely chances of winning. Don't worry about the odds at this point; simply list the horses in some sort of order that relates to their chances. a) If you are compiling a tissue for a handicap race, you should start by checking back over each horse's last two or three recent runs and note their finishing positions and SPs. Horses that have recently won or been placed are likely to be shorter in the betting than rivals that haven't, and those that were relatively well fancied in the betting in their recent runs will likely be relatively well fancied again. b) If you are compiling a tissue for a non-handicap race, you should initially consider what each horse's official handicap mark is and how this relates to the weight it is carrying. Some horses will be carrying more weight against their rivals than they would be in a handicap, and are therefore likely to face stiff tasks, whereas some will be better off than they would W E thehelpfulpunter@gmail.com

2 be if they were meeting the same rivals in a handicap and are therefore likely to have decent chances. To work out how much of an advantage/disadvantage each horse has, calculate how much better/worse off they are. For example, a Grade One race might have five runners, all of which must carry If those horses are officially rated 168, 165, 164, 160 and 157, it is clear that some have pretty hard tasks if the handicap marks are roughly accurate 1. For example, the horse rated 157 would carry 11 lb less than the one rated 168 if the race was a handicap, so would be effectively 11 lb badly treated in this race. As a result, it likely faces a difficult task and its odds will likely reflect that. After this first step, you should also take into account each horse s recent finishing positions and SPs, as you would when assessing handicap races. You may reshuffle your order slightly based on this information. Watch recent races and assess performance vs. SP Next, you should WATCH each horse s last two most recent races and see how the horse performed. Pay particular attention to its most recent race. If it ran better than its SP suggested it would, you would expect it to be shorter in the market this time, whereas if it ran more poorly than its SP suggested it would, it will likely be bigger. The extent to how much better/worse it ran than its SP indicated will give a clue as to the extent to how much shorter/bigger you might expect it to be today. If possible, then watch how other horses from each horse's last two races have run since; at least check the form of those horses in subsequent races to get a sense of how competitive the races were; they can vary considerably. Obviously, a horse that was fifth last time in a race that has produced subsequent winners will likely be shorter in the betting today than another one that was fifth in a race that has not. At this point, you can begin inputting your working tissue prices for each horse in a spreadsheet, like the one that is available for download each week as part of the Betting Tissue Club. Start by inputting a working price for your first choice (favourite) and work backwards. Because shorter-priced horses take a large percentage of the market, it is easier to assign odds to the longer-priced runners when you have fewer options. 1 Generally, official handicap marks are more accurate as horses gain experience; with every run the handicapper has more information to accurately assess a horse's ability. As a result, young, inexperienced horses may possess handicap marks that do not accurately reflect their ability. For example, a horse that has only had two runs and won a novice hurdle last time may be capable of considerably more than its current handicap mark implies.

3 2: Assess suitability of today's race conditions Check the suitability of today s conditions based on each horse s past performances. By far the most important conditions that affect performance are the going, then the distance, and then the class of race and the racecourse itself. Many horses are only effective on one type of going, while some have marked stamina limitations. Others will have good records in certain classes of race but struggle when upped to higher levels, or show a clear like/dislike for certain tracks (e.g. undulating, galloping, right-handed etc.). The best plan is to look through a horse's career record and note down what you feel its ideal conditions are. To help you, focus on its best and worst performances and the conditions they came in, and read any quotes from the trainer/jockey/owner. If there is no obvious pattern it is OK to assume the horse is relatively adaptable and will be able to perform under most conditions. Now use the table at the end of this document to consider how suitable today s race is likely to be in comparison to the conditions each horse faced on its most recent run. When assessing suitability based on a comparison of today s conditions to the conditions each horse faced on its most recent run: For each higher-order concern: +1 if today s conditions are a lot more suitable 0 if conditions are similar to its most recent run 1 if today s conditions are a lot less suitable For each lower-order concern: +½ if today s conditions are a lot more suitable 0 if conditions are similar to its most recent run ½ if today s conditions are a lot less suitable If you are unsure of anything, mark 0 (for example, you may not be sure if a horse will act on a downhill track if it has never run on one before). Because young, inexperienced horses may be harder to evaluate (they may not have had many opportunities to prove their stamina at a certain trip, or have never run on heavy going before, for example), you should only take a positive/negative view on them under certain conditions if you are very confident in doing so (e.g. perhaps a horse will have disappointed every time it has run on soft ground). The table and scoring system means that the range of race suitability for each horse in the race you are assessing is +6.5 to 6.5.

4 Once you have the numbers for each horse, you can use them to help refine your tissue in each week s pre-programmed tissue spreadsheet. Obviously, a horse with conditions much more in its favour today than in its most recent race is likely to have a shorter SP than last time, and the opposite is true for a horse that has less in its favour. 3: Finalise tissue prices (using a spreadsheet) After you have completed the steps above, you should have a betting tissue that you are relatively happy with. However, when you look at the tissue you may instinctively make a few minor final adjustments that you feel are needed. Because there is virtually a 100% chance that one horse will win any given race, the odds of all runners, when adjusted to percentage chances of winning, should add to 100%. A fourrunner race in which all the runners have the same chance of winning should see the four horses priced up at 4.0 / 3-1 (25%). Add the percentages up and you hit 100%. Note, however, that at 100% you could bet on each horse and break even, no matter which horse won. In reality, however, bookmakers are not this generous. They build a safety margin around the odds they offer of about 1-1.5% per horse; in other words, the odds are % worse than they should be for each horse. In the above example, the bookmakers would likely price the four horses up at about 3.8 (26.3%). Add the percentages up and you hit 105.3%. At 105.3% if you bet equally on each horse you would lose 5.3% of your total stakes whichever horse won. When using a spreadsheet to finalise your tissues, I suggest you aim for a 100% book, unless you are pricing up a race containing one or more wildcards (see immediately below). In such cases, allow yourself a little leeway/margin for error, but whenever possible, aim for a book of under 103 or 104%. Additional tips: pricing up 'wildcards' Very often, even if you are working on races that feature established horses with a lot of form to their names, there will be at least one wildcard that you need to assess. This is a term I use to refer to any horse that is hard to get a gauge on. It may include horses that are having their first runs: For a new yard Since being gelded With new headgear (blinkers, visors etc.) For a very long time Over new/different obstacles (fences/hurdles) In a handicap

5 Over very different distances (e.g. a sudden step up in trip) Under very different conditions (e.g. on heavy going) My advice is to initially price the race up as though these horses are not running, and then take a best guess as to where to insert them in the betting based on trainer/jockey/owner form, and overall race strength (if a race looks weak, be defensive). Based on the best guess position as to where to insert the wildcard in your tissue, use the odds of the horses immediately above and below it as a guide as to what price you should put it in at. Of course, you will frequently blow your total race percentage way too high when first inserting a wildcard in this way, but you can then gradually ease all your horses out in the betting until that percentage looks about right. Note that to begin with, as you are learning to compile odds, I recommend you don t bet too heavily (or at all) in such races that feature wildcards, but it is a good idea to compile odds for them to learn how to deal with such horses (and races) for when you are ready to tackle them for betting purposes. Generally, the technique above will result in your wildcard being priced a little too short in your tissue. Tread cautiously but be prepared to be flexible when it comes to interpreting betting opportunities in such circumstances.

6 Concern Issue Questions to consider Higher-Order Lower-Order Going Class Distance Racecourse Handicap mark Trainer form Jockey Performance pattern Field size Running style Should the horse be able to run to its potential on the going? Has it run poorly on it before? Should the horse be competitive in this class? Has it struggled at this level before? Should the horse stay? Should it have sufficient speed? Should the horse act on the track? E.g. Does it seem to have a preference for left/right-handed tracks? Is there a concern about it performing on undulating tracks, or over stiff fences? Should the horse have the ability to win off this mark? Has it struggled off it before? Is the trainer in particularly good/bad form? Is the jockey capable? Is the horse likely to have recovered from recent runs? Does it go well fresh if returning from a long absence or season break? Has there been a sign of improvement/regression in recent runs? Does the horse have experience of big fields if running in one today? Has it run notably poorly in big/small fields, suggesting a preference for one or the other? Is the horse likely to face competition for its running style (e.g. are there lots of other front runners, or a lack of obvious pace in a race of hold-up horses)?

INTRODUCTION TO HORSE RACING. Gambling can be addictive. Please play responsibly.

INTRODUCTION TO HORSE RACING. Gambling can be addictive. Please play responsibly. INTRODUCTION TO HORSE RACING Gambling can be addictive. Please play responsibly. http://responsiblegambling.betfair.com HORSE RACING Horse racing has been taking place in the UK for many hundreds of years.