BREEDER S CUP 1999 By Tom Walters

Transcription

1 BREEDER S CUP 1999 By Tom Walters The Breeder Cup day turned out to be one of my better days. Sometime you don t know when you are going to have a good day, and I didn t have a lot of expectation this year. I advised my students in my classes that on big purse and betting days like the Breeder Cup and the Derby, always make sure you include the people who have been there before in your contenders. The only preparation I made prior to the actual races was to go through the #2 report and highlight Baffert, Lukas, Day, Sellers, and Bailey. I also suggested that you should be willing to spend more and include more horses in your wagering strategy since you know everything is going to pay more. This was one of those amateur money days. Everything pays great because all the amateurs are at the races betting on their favorite colors, favorite names, and the latest rumor. In fact, many times on days like this you may need only to catch one or two races to have a good day. Little did I realize how prophetic I was. I was really involved in a big golf game on that Saturday morning, and had planned to miss the first couple of races. I told Linda that the handicapping looked so tough I may play a few races, a pick 3 or two and come home. After reading about Andy Beyer s comment that the Breeder Cup was too tough this year, Linda decided to not even go this year. This would be the first time she missed the Breeder Cup races in several years. So, I was planning on meeting my partner Bob Springer for a just a few races. I got there just after the 2d race. Bob had said there were no real surprises in the first two races. He noted the rail seemed to be holding speed, but it was still early. Looking at the 3d race, the first thing I saw was an Ernie. Do you remember the Ernie? The Ernie is a trifecta formula used when there are three favorites (1-2-3 with with 4-5-6). So, the horses were the obvious bet-down favorites. I assumed everyone in the world was going to bet a trifecta box, which in my view would be the worst bet to make. I refuse to make bets that pay practically nothing. I have missed a lot of $10 exactas, and will continue to miss them. You have to make your money work harder than that. If you are going to get ahead in handicapping, you cannot make the obvious bets that everyone else makes. So, this called for an Ernie, with with???. 1

2 Beautiful Pleasure(#6), Banshee Breeze(#3) and Silverbullitday(#7) were going make one of the really great races between three of the best fillies in the country. I favored Banshee Breeze who I liked ever since I saw her here at Keeneland and was older than Silverbulletday who was everyone else's pick. Beautiful Pleasure was relatively new on the scene for me, but she was the #1 K horse. So I decided to put in the show position. Notice I put one more on the bottom than I usually do because this was Breeder Cup Day. I didn t need to as the #5 HTR horse came in 3d. As you know the result was which started the day off with a $ trifecta. The 4 th race was the Chilukki race that everybody has been talking about. She was 6 0, trained by Baffert and looked unbeatable. But this was Breeder Cup and anything can happen. The threatening competition was from Lukas who had Pat Day on Surfside (#7). But I remember the lesson we learned at the last Derby. Lukas had two horses then and everybody talked about one of them and never mentioned the other (Charasmatic). It was just a last second thought that sent me to the window with one minute to go that made me buy a $5 win ticket, and save my day. Looking over the sheet were three favorites again: Chilukki(#3), Surfside (#7), and Darling (#6). As you can see, Lukas has two horses running in this race, just like the Derby. It was a 7 Quirin * horse in the one hole. In addition Jerry Bailey was up. He has to be a contender! The similarity was too great. But in this race, I had decided to make my favorite wager, the pick 3. I had decided up front that I would use my normal pick 3 formula which was a three bet formula generally using 4 horses per race: with 1-2 with with 3-4 with with 3-4 with 1-2 The total cost is $32. So looking at the three races you can see my top 4 in each race. 2

3 I highlighted below the contenders that I used in making the pick 3 wagers. But I did reverse and alter the order. On a day like Breeders Cup, there are some things that are certain: The morning line favorite will win not every race. The K1 will not win every race. In fact the K1 and K2 should not be expected to come in three races in a row, especially on Breeders Cup Day. So why bet that they will? I always find it interesting that people make a lot of bets that they know won t win. With that in mind here is the formula, the way I adjusted it, and then the actual wagers for the 4 th, 5 th and 6 th race. 1-2 with 3-4 with with 1-2 with with 1-2 with 1-2 Cost ($1) $32 Notice I adjusted the formula. The formula says that 1-2 will not come in all three races. In the 6 th race Artax and Forestry were my top two horses, no matter who the K1 was. Actual: with 1-10 with with 5-8 with with with 5-8 Total Cost ($1) = $32 The only doubt I had was that #1 horse in the 4 th, Cash Run. He kept looking better and better. Bob didn t play the Pick 3, but we both played the #1 in the exacta. I played a power exacta that was: ($1) 1-3 with As the odds climbed on #1, I couldn t stand it any longer and bought two Power Exacta s 1-7 with , and 1-6 with Then, Bob and I split a with 1 with all, and a with with 1. 3

4 The 4 th race was really exciting as Bailey took Cash Run(#1) to the front and hugged that rail all around the home turn. Then Chilikki came after him and it was a case of seeing if Cash Run would hold on. At the time I had mixed feelings. If Chilukki could win, we would have a nice trifecta, exacta and I would have the first leg of the pick 3. As you know Chilukki didn t make it, and I could hear a groan all over that dining room at Keeneland. I hadn t realized that the odds were going up all the while. As it turned out, we both had exactas, and kicking ourselves for not playing the #1 in the win position on the trifecta. With Chilukki so heavily bet, we guessed our exacta was going to be about dollars. But on Breeder Cup Day there is almost a nice 4

5 push on everything. The exacta paid a whopping $255 and trifecta $ The win price of $67 was also a real surprise. The 5 th race was easy to bet: A Tomcat split in this case a three bet formula (K1 and K2) with exacta with with trifecta wheel with exacta wheel was a backup. Those K ratings were great Ken, with another $225 exacta. I kicked my self again by not playing the trifecta, which paid $2632. But, winning two races in a row and several hundred dollars ahead, it was hard to be unhappy. I still had the third leg of the Pick 3 to come. I was very worried about the third race, since I only had 5-8 left on my Pick 3 ticket. I had left off the K1 horse. But he was in the 12 hole and the rail was running pretty good. I really liked Artax and Forestry was very capable in case Artax didn t get a good start. Artax sometimes doesn t get good starts, and then doesn t run well. The situation today would need Artax to get a good start, or was there going to be another horse come out of nowhere and upset the field? I remember watching closely to see what kind of start Artax got. I breathed easier when I saw him come right out and take the lead. Forestry was also in the hunt. The final was a relief as Artax motored home (I held my breath all the way down the stretch) and I knew I had the Pick 3. I thought I saw a screen flash by showing Pick3 payoffs and that the payoff would be about 500 some dollars. Bob said, I think you re going to have a signer. No, I replied, I didn t think it would pay that much, but I hope you re right. The payoff screen came up and showed the win and exacta payoffs, and I waited and waited for the Pick 3 payoff, and then it came up. At first, I thought it said $ , which was thrilling, but Bob started yelling 12 thousand, 12 thousand. I had to get up and go over to the TV screen and look closely. He was right. It said $12, Wow! It took for ever to get paid off ($6,391.20) as they had to call a supervisor and check my credentials. When they started to get the money together from the other tellers, I requested a check because I didn t want to carry that much cash. But they said the person that signs checks doesn t work on Breeder Cup Day. Bob started telling everyone in the restaurant about my good fortune, and that they needed to get in my classes. People started to come over requesting my card and wanting to know when the next class would start. This attention made me extremely nervous with that much money, and people want to talk with me, and wanting to know who was going to win the next race. I decided I needed to go home and deposit that money. So Bob walked me to my car and did I have a nice surprise for Linda! 5