EXPERT SELECTIONS AND VALUE PLAYS

Transcription

1 EXPERT SELECTIONS AND VALUE PLAYS Thursday, September 15, 2011 ARLINGTON PARK EXPERT ANALYSIS SCOTT MCMANNIS Paraphrasing Maxwell Anderson, As the days dwindle down to a precious few and these precious days we want to spend with you here at Arlington. Just two more weeks of racing. Join us as often as you can since it will be seven months before we meet again for live racing. Then join us seven days a week at Trackside, and Fridays through Sundays at Mr. D s, for simulcasting. 743/220W, 378WP, 470WPS 1 st 2-RICH CITY DUDE likely would have won his last race if he didn t have trouble at the break. Assuming a clean trip, all signs are aligned for this second start after being claimed, and second after the layoff. 8-BERGMAN returns to Arlington s syn surface from Canterbury s dirt which looks like a plus. His two May races make him a top contender. 6-WHAT DO YOU MEAN also qualifies as a contender, based on his viewable best, but he must be fit and ready after the five-month layoff. Selections: 2-8-6

2 2 nd 9-SURE SUCCESS sure looks to be the one to beat, IF she s the same horse, and IF she transfers that viewable dirt form to syn. Is it a warning sign that he is immediately dropping well under the claim price, or is Larry Rivelli invoking the Calabrese modus operandi? 7-HEZA BOXER drops in claim price, but raises in conditions, after a win that makes him the next contender. 4- CHARTER CLASS followed a slow pace last time. He s better than that performance, and his syn record and record at the distance support him. Selections: rd 7-ON THE SNEAK has the back class, but where has he been for a year-and-a-half, and why does he show up on a big class drop? He may not be the same horse, talent-wise, but he still may be good enough to beat these. Trainer double, races 2-3? 6-MAGIC MAN won his last at 6F, and might have won his second back if it was at today s distance. 1-PRIME SPEED has a win at 7F and a close-up third, both looking like today s distance will work for him. Selections: th 2-BARON SLEW drops under the claim price for this second start after the claim. He s unknown at the distance but 100% in the money on syn. 7-LIMESTONE returns to the main track and drops in half for his third start after a layoff. He has a second at the distance, albeit on dirt, and his win was in a two-turn race on sand. 8-REGGIVILLE is 75% in the money on syn, and can add to that record today by taking a piece of this. Selections: th 7-THIRD CHANCE is part of the early speed in here so must avoid dueling out, obviously. However, she won a duel for the lead last time by running the fastest pace of the day. 1-ROSE MOUNTAIN is one to benefit if a speed duel does knock out the early speedsters. Her two May races recommend her. 6- CHORAGUS is another to benefit from a too-hot speed duel. She hasn t been on syn in the last 16 races I can see, which is a little curious, but is it meaningful? Selections: th 10-STRONG LUCK turns back to a turf sprint for this third start after the layoff. Her turf routes say she may be better sprinting since she was often in contention after six furlongs. 2-MAWAAQEF is probably going to be the favorite again, and no surprise since she, of all these, has shown the most promise at turf sprinting. She s fast enough to win if she wants to. 3-POP S GOLD is trainer Danny Pietz s second horse in here. She was well-bet in her debut, 13 months ago, indicating potential talent. Selections: Main Track Selections: Same 7 th 6-REALLY NOW failed to hold on again and now takes another class drop. Couple the easier competition with the cutback to today s distance and it can be what she needs to win. The concern is the prospect of dueling out. 1-ENSORCEL wasn t able to show us what she has with her troubled debut. She deserves another chance. 2-RAILEY S BLINKERS has confined her in-the-money finishing to this year. She s fast enough to take a part of this. Selections: 6-1-2

3 8 th 9 th 13-CANDY TRAIN is a top contender if he draws in, but he must overcome the outside post. He drops to a new low claim price where he will be more competitive. 3-BOMBINO led then was just outfinished in his last, against today s level. He s another top contender and has the better post. 5- FEARLESSLY is unknown on the turf but he s dropped in by the Cat Man operation. 8-ELIPTICALS T BIRD may improve with the blinkers to be added, so consider for exotics. Selections: Main Track Selections: QUICK DELIVERY returns to the main track and drops below the level where he last won. He s perfect at the distance (OK, 2-for-2) and over the Arlington syn, and can stay that way. 5-ALARMING AFLEET was claimed last race and now goes back to the one-turn mile. Like the top one Fleet has strong Arlington syn credentials, and is one-third in the exacta at the distance. 9-BROTHERS NICHOLAS may be better around two turns, but he does have four seconds at the distance. 1A-HURTA has a chance to steal the race, especially if no one goes with him. Selections: A 10 th 3-SHO BIZ SREVA ran a closing second when she tried a turf sprint, before routing. Those routes may have her legged up enough to get up for the win this time. 6-MERCURY MOON finished even with the top one in that aforementioned sprint. If we like one, we like the other, but Moon must be ready off the layoff. 2-START STREET was tossing hints at Indiana in June. She s another top contender if she s ready off the two-month layoff. Selections: Main Track Selections: Same

4 Joe's ARLINGTON PARK VALUE PLAYS JOE KRISTUFEK & BRIAN W. SPENCER (maximum wager per race = $20) 140/ ($209.60) $2 WIN ROI $1.50 $6 WPS ROI $5.00 Win: 24% ITM: 59% 137/ ($158.80) $2 WIN ROI $1.16 $6 WPS ROI $4.90 Win: 17% ITM: 53% Brian's Race 1 #8 BERGMAN ran some huge race earlier in the meet, posting a pair of seconds behind talented winners. Off nearly three months, he recently returned in a minor stake at Canterbury and failed to make an impact. He fits like a glove on the drop, and should he return to his May form, the rest of these may be forced to compete for minor awards. He s won only once from ten lifetime tries over the Arlington Poly, but the company he s kept all along was much stronger than he ll be facing today. (Joe Kristufek) $5 WIN & $15 PLACE #8 BERGMAN = $20. Race 4 #9 SCORE BABY SCORE has really stepped his game up in recent starts. He obviously loves this 9f journey, and he should've graduated three starts back, and would've if not for trouble near the quarter-pole. With a clean trip last out, he crushed a field by 13 lengths, and he's still at his best trip today. Can win right back. (Brian W. Spencer) $10 WIN & $10 PLACE #9 SCORE BABY SCORE = $20 Race 6 #3 POP'S GOLD ran well in his only career start, crossing the wire a close 3 rd at odds of 5-2 in that debut in July of Off since then, he returns with a forward series of drills for a barn that can get them ready off the layoff, and he runs into Mawaaqef, who once again looks like the one to beat, once again should take a ton of cash, and might very well, once again find a way to lose. (Brian W. Spencer) $5 WIN, $5 PLACE, & $10 SHOW #3 POP'S GOLD = $20 Race 9 #3 FUFTY TOO hasn t won since 09, but he s done some deceivingly good work since returning from vacation. Compromised by circumstances in all four of his recent runs, he stretches out for a rare mile attempt for this. He should flash stalking speed, and perhaps the added ground will work in his favor. He swings back off a recent fourth behind a talented winner at this level, and may be ready to run his best race in a long time. The apprentice allowance could prove useful. (Joe Kristufek) $2 WIN, $5 PLACE & $10 SHOW #3 FUFTY TOO = $17.

5 For updated full-meet Polytrack & Turf Statistics, visit: Attention Bettors: Surface Change Rule Eliminated Effective July 28, 2011, when a scheduled turf race is moved to the Polytrack, fans will no longer receive an all in the Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5 or Pick 6 wager pursuant to the repeal of Illinois Racing Board rules b) and e). Follow Arlington Park on Facebook at facebook.com/arlingtonpark HANDICAPPING SEMINARS: Saturday, September 24, 2011: Learn to Win w/joe Kristufek & Brian W. Spencer (1:00p-3:30p) Chat live with Horseplayer NOW analysts. Enter chat through Chat Night School to learn more about racing every Monday Night. Can't make it to the track? Head to one of the Arlington Trackside locations. Visit Arlingtonpark.com/trackside for more details and locations.