THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (on 1/3/2016 OVERVIEW

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1 THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (on 1/3/2016 OVERVIEW PICK 4 LEG 1 (R6): Today s $500K Guaranteed Late P4 sequence begins with a 7-furlong MSW for 3-year-old fillies. We don t have much info to go on here, but let s see if we can narrow it down and get out alive with oftenunreliable young fillies. #1 FAITHFULLY (3/1) debuts for Baffert after costing $700K as a yearling. She was training at Los Al with the D-team before she switched over to Santa Anita for two decent works. It s always tricky for any horse to win at first asking going 7-furlongs let alone having to do it when breaking from the rail. Raffi rides, but Baffert has been a little chilly of late. Mixed signals here. GRADE: B. #2 EDGY GIRL (6/1) was claimed for $62.5K out of her debut, and O Neill promptly protected her when running her one-mile at Los Al. She prompted the pace while racing wide and weakened. She ll be much fitter on the cutback here, but she ll have to prove she belongs in the special-weight division as opposed to the claiming division. GRADE: X. #3 SPLATTER (15/1) didn t do much running in her debut when sent off at 38/1. She can t run any worse, so that s a plus, but she ll need to show a spark of life before getting my money. GRADE: X. #4 DREAMY ART (7/2) ran a very sharp debut when finishing second after chasing a nice Baffert filly. The race came on a sealed sloppy track, so I don t trust the big figure she earned, because in her next two starts, she didn t run nearly as fast. She does have early speed, and she s making the second start of her form cycle after running like a short horse in her last race (when she was beaten by one of today s rivals). GRADE: A. #5 MISS PRISS (15/1) has some class in her family tree, but trainer James Cassidy isn t exactly known for having them fully cranked in their debuts. He s also 0-for-19 when teaming up with James Graham, who has struggled on this circuit and is mercifully returning to Fair Grounds. I do, however, like her last workout. GRADE: C. #6 AUDACIOUS ANGEL (6/1) was well-beaten in her debut, and then she was forced to break from the rail in her second start. She s been freshened for this and Gary Stevens sticks around. She cost $100K as a 2-year-old in-training, so she must have some ability. I think she ll put forth a solid effort today. GRADE: C. #7 REALLY A GEM (10/1) outran her 69/1 odds at Los Al when finishing fourth in her debut. She should improve off that effort, especially since she s bred to go longer but I have a hard time backing trainer Caesar Dominguez right now based on his 2-for-45 record this past year. GRADE: X. #8 MERIROSVO (20/1) debuted at one-mile on the turf, so you can forgive that poor effort as I m sure it was just an educational run. Fans of the old-school turf-to-dirt, route-to-sprint move will like the price and the jock change, but Van Dyke will have to make sure he s not too far back with this gal turning for home. GRADE: X. #9 ROCKANTHAROS (5/2) pressed a quick pace in her debut at Los Al on a closer-friendly surface, and she was overtaken by two others. She ll get a good forwardly placed trip today as the outside speed, and she should move forward off her debut effort. Trainer Peter Miller has started this meet with a bang, and he scratched her out of a stakes race to face this easier group. GRADE: A.

2 LEG 2 (R7): Today s second leg is a very deep running of the $200K Monrovia (G2), a 6-5-furlong downhill dash for fillies and mares aged 4-years-old and up. #1 SINGING KITTY (8/1) was a great $32K claim for Matt Chew, who then saddled her to three overnight-stakes wins, including a victory in the Unzip Me over today s course and distance. She s coming off a brief freshening and she ll have to deal with the tricky one-post, but she s a pretty honest gal who tries hard. The bigger concern is that she had been racing exclusively against 3-year-olds and will now have to show her form against some really tough older ladies. GRADE: X. #2 MY YEAR IS A DAY (FR) (20/1) had good French form before testing the waters here in the States, to no avail. Trainer Graham Motion couldn t get a peak effort out of her, so she ended up at Del Mar trying a 5-furlong turf sprint for Phil D Amato. She steadied at the start but did come home pretty quickly. I have a feeling she ll like the downhill course and put forth a good effort today, but she s facing some horse-for-course specialists here. GRADE: C. #3 HEAVENS STAIRWAY (15/1) is 5-for-8 over this course with some very sharp wins but she found graded-stakes company too tough for her back in April, and she hasn t been seen since. Trainer Scott Hansen takes over training duties for Marty Jones, and Iggy Puglisi hops aboard for the first time. She s a cool lady, but I m going to watch one. GRADE: X. #4 OUR PURE CREATION (50/1) is 0-for-5 on the turf, and her recent Cal-bred stakes win came with a perfect trip in an off-the-turf event. She ll need a career best and then some to beat these today. GRADE: X. #5 PRIZE EXHIBIT (GB) (5/1) is a graded-stakes winner at one-mile, a distance that she adores. I m not sure how this late runner will fare over this course, but she has been facing some really tough customers and holding her own. She is making the second start of her form cycle after exiting the onemile Matriarch (G1), where she was a zillion wide turning for home. She ll fire, but it all depends on the pace and trip and whether she takes to the course. GRADE: B. #6 SHRINKING VIOLET (4/1) tried the downhill course for the first time in this race last year and responded with a terrific effort. Her two races after that at Pimlico and Woodbine were subpar, but she returned to California in August and responded with a monster effort at Del Mar. Toss the last at Kentucky Downs when she was shut off and never had a chance to show her best stuff. GRADE: A. #7 VELVET MESQUITE (8/1) has run over this course 10 times and has only missed the board twice that s real consistency. That said, she has been beaten by a few of these, so she ll have to reverse form. Desormeaux sides with the horse to her inside, but Bejarano hops aboard. She has tactical speed and will be in the thick of it turning for home, but I think others will edge her late. GRADE: C. #8 ILLUMINANT (8/1) rides a two-race win streak into this event, but she ll have to prove she belongs in this class. Bejarano bails, but Mike Smith hops aboard. She s another with tactical speed and a solid race over this course, but others look faster on paper (though I will say that as a lightly raced 4- year-old, there is still some upside here if you re a believer). GRADE: X. #9 LUTINE BELLE (20/1) is a deep closer who hasn t been able to get it done against agerestricted graded-stakes horses, including Prize Exhibit (GB). She s been off since June, and I have to think this is a tune-up for a two-turn event down the road (though I thought the same thing of another Hollendorfer trainee on Thursday, and all he did was win off a similar layoff!). GRADE: X. #10 THEATRE STAR (15/1) has run well over this course but hasn t been able to win. She s also been beaten by a few of these. She has a solid late kick, so expect her to come rolling late but will it be enough against these? GRADE: C. #11 AGELESS (3/1) is living up to her name, as this now 7-year-old race mare invades from back East while riding a two-race win streak into this event. Her best form seems to come going a bit shorter, but note that she ran fourth here in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (G1) in 2014, losing by only threequarters of a length. Leparoux makes the journey, so you know she s in it to win it. GRADE: A.

3 #12 BARUTA (BRZ) (6/1) is a Grade 3 winner over this track and she projects a very good forwardly placed trip breaking from the coveted outside post. You can toss her last when she was overmatched in the Matriarch (G1) and focus on her downhill form, which is rock-solid. That said, I ve always thought her wins were flattered by perfect set-ups, and I think there are more talented ladies in here. GRADE: C. LEG 3 (R8): Today s eighth race is a 6-furlong main-track dash for Cal-bred $20K optional-claiming/n1x runners and it looks like a very tough, wide-open race to me. There seems to be plenty of speed, so I ll side with the two closers, but relying on late runners always scares me, especially here in California! #1 APOLLO TEN (9/2) has been facing open-claimers and starter-allowance runners, so he ll appreciate Cal-bred only company. He has a very solid closing kick, and there should be enough pace to set up his run. I like that Desormeaux hops aboard for his main-main Bob Hess, Jr. GRADE: A. #2 SIDEPOCKET CHAMP (20/1) couldn t beat conditioned-claimers and is 0-for-12 at today s distance. GRADE: X. #3 SUNDAR DRUMS (8/1) has speed, so he ll be in the vanguard early but there is other speed, so he ll have to show he can stick around against winners. His maiden-breaker came against a very soft 6-horse field. GRADE: C. #4 REAL BIG DEAL (3/1) has tactical speed but expect him to track the pace, coming out of an 8.5-furlong affair. He s been freshened for this, and his last two races are certainly good enough to be competitive here, but I like others just a little bit more. GRADE: B. #5 GUTSY RULER (6/1) has had 10 tries at this level, to no avail. Don t get me wrong: he s been competitive at this level, but he always seems to get beat to the wire. Note that he does like this track, though, notching 3 wins in 6 tries. He should also get a good tracking trip right behind the pace. GRADE: A. #6 W. GILES (8/1) ran a hole in the wind when coming off a layoff to beat $8K claimers back in July. He was claimed out of that race and hasn t been the same horse. He couldn t beat time-restricted claimers last time at Los Al, but he did set a very quick pace before weakening, despite a 5-pound weight break. He keeps the weight break today, and he ll need every bit of it as he tries to move forward. GRADE: C. #7 LAMBO LUXX (6/1) was all out to beat starter-allowance foes three back, and his one try at this level was a well-beaten seventh when running 5-furlongs on the turf at Del Mar. He ll appreciate getting back on dirt, but his best races have come when being forwardly placed, and there s other speed in here. GRADE: C. #8 ONE MORE ROLL (10/1) was claimed for $16K then hit the bench. He returned protected for Bill Spawr but didn t fire at Los Al, going off at 8/5. He did have to break from the rail, so maybe you can excuse that effort. As a former $16K claimer, he ll have to prove he fits with this slightly better company. GRADE: C. #9 ROLO TAMACI (7/2) hasn t been seen since June, but trainer Richard Baltas is on fire right now, and he s lethal off this kind of layoff. I also like that this guy will be running on late in a race that should have plenty of pace. GRADE: A. LEG 4 (R9): We close out the second week of racing with another competitive heat, this one a $50K claimer contested at 8-furlongs on the turf. There are a few speed horses and a few closers in here, so we should get a fairly run race though speed has seemed to be holding on this turf course of late. #1 HUSBAND S FOLLY (6/1) is a deep closer who needed an off-the-turf race to finally get a victory after several tries at the N1X level. He found N2X foes too tough last time, but before that, he

4 lost by half-a-length at the $40K level. He fits fine here, but everything has to go right for this late runner. GRADE: C. #2 IMAGE OF JOPLIN (6/1) is a one-way speed horse who cleared the N1X hurdle against a weak group back in October. He then couldn t hang on against starter-allowance foes when going 1-3/8 miles. He gets back to a preferred distance after being freshened for this and bug boy Kennedy gives him 7- pounds to help carry his speed. GRADE: B. #3 PROHIBITION (20/1) has been running on the dirt at Emerald Downs to no avail. He s been laid up since August and now shows up here for a $50K tag. I like that Prat takes the call, but I think I want to watch one on this circuit before backing. GRADE: C. #4 YES YES YES (6/1) is a pretty honest runner who should be rolling late, like he usually does. Toss the last race against much tougher and key on his previous two efforts they are rock-solid and would easily get the job done today. GRADE: A. #5 LOVENSEEK (4/1) has run well against age-restricted claimers, prompting or setting the pace and taking control when the real running started. He s in very good form, but there is other speed, and he has to face open claimers this time around. He s also making his first start out of the Peter Miller barn, and that s always a dubious proposition. GRADE: C. #6 TIZ DYNAMIC (15/1) ran really well at the $40K level, closing stoutly to just miss at 29/1. He s been freshened for this bump up in class, and he should have a pace to close into today. He will, however, need to improve off that last effort to win here. GRADE: B. #7 TATTENHAM (9/2) was competitive on the East Coast before coming West to try tougher company. He broke from the impossible 10-post at Del Mar but still only lost by 2-lengths. The most intriguing thing, however, is that Desormeaux hops aboard for his main-main Bob Hess, Jr., after Brice Blanc couldn t work out a good trip last time. He looks solid today. GRADE: A. #8 TALE OF A CHAMPION (15/1) is a Grade 2 winner who came off a two-year layoff to run against $40K claimers at Del Mar. He had a really tough trip, so you can forgive that poor effort and note that he was the subject of suspicious betting patterns in that race. Does this 8-year-old have one more race in him or is he a finished product? I guess we ll find out. GRADE: C. #9 HOME SCHOOL (IRE) (12/1) has been competitive against $40K claimers, but he hasn t been able to get over the hump which is why Paulo Lobo legs up 5-pound bug boy David Lopez to try and get this guy to the wire first. He should get a tracking trip, but I wonder if he ll be a little bit wide, and if he ll be able to fend off the closers. GRADE: C. #10 HOBBITS HERO (3/1) is in very good form right now, and you d be silly to ignore anything sent out by Baltas, who is positively on fire. Win-rider Bejarano hops back aboard, but he ll have to work out a good trip from the outside post. GRADE: A. SUGGESTED WAGER You can certainly play the whole matrix, if you want to invest a decent amount of money into this sequence, but I m pretty happy with my top contenders, so I m just going to play my All A Entries and A s with One and Two B s for $ Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: (SCROLL DOWN FOR TODAY S TICKETMAKER MATRIX.)

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