WORK BOOK III HONG KONG RACING

Transcription

1 WORK BOOK III HONG KONG RACING

2 Over the last few years Hong Kong racing has provided many excellent betting opportunities and terrific value. With only two tracks being used, Sha Tin and Happy Valley, it is easier to assess runners and to line up form lines. One of the key factors to be successful in Hong Kong and to be a realistic winning chance, you need to be betting into the Hong Kong Pools. It is pointless betting any form of Exotics on the Australian totes as the pools are insignificant and even if you are correct in your assessment of the race, you will destroy your value by taking massive unders in the dividends. If you are betting win only, there are several Corporate Bookies that bet fixed odds albeit a crush market, they do on occasion make a mistake and bet over the odds especially if there is a short priced favourite in the race. There are several critical factors that need to be applied but once you have an understanding of these, much will fall into place. These factors are: Trainers Trainer/Jockey Partnerships Understanding Track Work Methods Analysing Trials Horses for Courses Racing Patterns at the two tracks Each of these factors has a significant bearing on analysing races in Hong Kong in their own right but collectively, an understanding of these factors will give you a massive advantage over the rank and file punters that may be betting on this venue. We will address each of these in detail and hopefully you will have a better understanding of what is required to be betting successfully in Hong Kong.

3 TRAINERS There are leading trainers in Hong Kong and they consistently provide 80% + of all the winners for the season. The key is to identify WHERE they train their winners. I do not advocate following Trainers, if you do you will almost certainly lose but there are pockets where advantages can be gained. Most will have a preferred track that will account for the biggest percentage of their wins. They will in many cases use the other track to get them ready. One of the best examples is John Size, most of his winners come at Sha tin and whilst he does have some winners at Happy Valley, he tends to use HV to prepare runners with conditioning runs and then they run their best races at Sha Tin. In 2010, 68 of his 75 winners were at Sha Tin. This will be the case with most of the top trainers; Sha Tin will provide the bulk of their winners. The list below will give you a guide. (Based on 2009/10 season) J Size C Fownes J Moore A Cruz K L Man

4 P F Yiu Y S Tsui C H Yip D Hall A T Millard A Lee L Ho

5 P O Sullivan S Woods Based on these statistics, the TOP FIVE (5) trainers at: Sha Tin J Size J Moore P F Yiu A Cruz D Hall Happy Valley C Fownes K L Man Y S Tsui C H Yip L Ho When I am assessing runners chances this factor must be considered especially when looking at Happy Valley races. I weight heavily towards to trainers proficient at HV in comparison to the trainers that use HV for conditioning.

6 TRAINER/JOCKEY PARTNERSHIPS Whilst I am not a big fan of Trainer/Jockey combo s, I accept that in HK this is very much to the fore and with this in mind, serious consideration must be given to this factor. This is not to say that every time a particular combination is seen that it is a winning opportunity. What I look for is when the trainer combines with his high strike rate rider after the runner was ridden by some one else at its previous start. This will generally happen when a trainer is using the run for conditioning and will either have an apprentice ride it or a senior rider from the lower ranks. It will run accordingly and then the Jockey change will come and it will go to the right track and run an improved race. Below are the most prominent combinations (Based on 2009/10/11 season) Trainer Wins Jockey Wins J Size 75 D Whyte 54 C Fownes 66 B Prebble 26 J Moore 59 D Beadman 36 A Cruz 53 M Chadwick 41 K L Man 43 B Prebble 16 P F Yiu 39 H Lai 10 B Prebble 8 Y S Tsui 36 Y T Cheng 11 C H Yip 35 B Prebble 8 Y T Cheng 8 D Hall 32 B Prebble 20 A T Millard 30 J Lloyd 9 W Marwing 9 A Lee 29 M L Yeung 8 L Ho 29 T H So 13 P O Sullivan 28 Z Purton 10 S Woods 28 O Doleuze 8 D Ferraris 20 W Marwing 8 J Lloyd 7 Y O Wong 19 Y T Cheng 7 T W Leung 18 B Doyle 12

7 Equally as important if not more so is to identify which jockeys are being used by trainers when the conditioning run is in play. There are several trainers that follow a particular pattern with their jockey allocation. Below is an example of this factor. C Fownes uses C K Tong, T H So, Z Purton at Sha Tin in many cases for the conditioning run and then will go to Happy Valley and apply jockey change. A Cruz uses K L Chui, M W Leung, K C Leung at Happy Valley in many cases for the conditioning run and then will go to Sha Tin and apply jockey change. This factor has a bearing on any adjustments that I may contemplate and has proven to have a significant impact when identifying non winning chances. TRAINER/JOCKEY NON WINNING COMBO S (Based on 2009/10/11 season) J Size O. Doleuze, M. L. Yeung, Y. T. Cheng, W. M. Lai J Moore C Fownes A Cruz K L Man P F Yiu Y S Tsui C H Yip D Hall A Millard A Lee L Ho K. C. Leung, W. C. Marwing C K Tong, T H So, Z Purton K L Chui, M W Leung, K C Leung H. W. Lai, Z. Purton, C. K. Tong, M. L. Yeung, W. C. Marwing J. Lloyd, W. M. Lai, K. W. Leung, K. C. Leung, O. Doleuze K. W. Leung, M. W. Leung, C. K. Tong, O. Doleuze, T. H. So C. W. Wong, W. M. Lai, S. K. Sit C. W. Wong, M. W. Leung K. C. Leung, M. Chadwick, S. K. Sit, T. H. So J. Lloyd, Z. Purton, K. C. Leung, O. Doleuze, G. Cheyne H. W. Lai, M. W. Leung P O Sullivan O. Doleuze, J. Lloyd S Woods C Chang K Lui D Ferraris B. Doyle, M. W. Leung T. H. So, S. K. Sit C. K. Tong, M. W. Leung, K. C. Leung, W. M. Lai, Y. T. Cheng Z. Purton, G. Cheyne, M. Chadwick, D. Whyte Ng Ting-keung M. W. Leung, J. Lloyd, G. Cheyne Y O Wong K. C. Leung, C. K. Tong, M. W. Leung, D. Whyte

8 UNDERSTANDING TRACK WORK METHODS The training methods in Hong Kong are different to what most would expect to see when looking at Australian trackwork where trainers here tend to work their horse more quietly in most cases. Trainers in HK will work their horse a few days apart leading up to race day with a sprint up if it s nearing peak fitness levels. They generally work over 800m and fast work 400m with Trotting or Swimming on the days in between fast work. (For those that get the database updates, I cover this section fairly extensively and will comment as per examples below) EXAMPLES TRACKWORK went over 800m sprinting up last 400m in 21.1 on AWT TRACKWORK went 800m in 48.9 last 400m in 22.6 TRACKWORK went strongly AWT sprinting up 400m in I generally ignore any trackwork where they have not run even time, which is, 800m in 48.0 or 400m in 24.0 and even this type of work is not likely to impress unless it s evident that the runner could have gone much quicker and was under a stranglehold The example below for FREE AND EASY shows its work over the last 14 days, its has had 3 jump outs, 1 barrier trial, swimming 11 times and canter work 16 times. 14/03: (58.9) AWT 10/03: (54.5) Turf 07/03: (57.8) AWT 03/03: (56.5) AWT

9 It has progressed well in its work; the Trial is sound and has run which was considerably faster than the other trial on the day, therefore I would expect a reasonable improved run at its next start. The run on the AWT (All Weather Track) is an indication that it may go to Happy Valley and be looking for dirt track. The key point to look for in any track work is at the end of the workout as per examples below: If they work over 800m if they run last 400m in less than /03: (47.4) AWT 12/03: (50.6) AWT 13/03: 21.2 (21.2) AWTG 03/03: (50.2) Turf OR If they work over 400m only, look for anything that runs better than /03: 21.2 (21.2) AWTG 13/03: 22.3 (22.3) AWTG OR If they work over longer and break even time for the last 400m (24.0) 14/03: (1.21.3) AWT 13/03: (1.26.8) AWT 12/03: (1.16.6) AWT (PPFA users that subscribe to the database updates will have this information)

10 TRIALS As with trackwork, the Trials format is far different than most trials conducted in Australia and New Zealand. In Hong Kong they run many of the trials under race type conditions and will run fast times in many cases. The main points to look for are the splits that have been run. Most trials are conducted over 1000m, 1050m and 1200m. The general trend is to run a slow 1 st 200m then increase the tempo closing off last 400m in many cases in low 22 s and its very common to break 46.0 for the last 800m What needs to be looked at is where each runner has come from and was it extended Many trainers will send their runners out to do a specific piece of work, it may not necessarily be to win or place in the trial. The trial needs to be analysed in 400m sections. Did it go hard early or middle stages or did it close off strongly, they rarely do all three. 01/03/2011 Batch 7 - Sha Tin - Turf m (0.59.6) In the above trial, 1000m down the straight Royal Portrait settled last on slow opening 200m (13.9) not asked to do much to 600m then closed under good hold along the rail ran last 800m in 45.7 and last 400m in 22.6 Adoration was just as good a trial as it was under good hold throughout and was not asked to doing anything last 100m after kicking up middle stages, it had plenty in hand. On face value running 7 th gives no indicator but the trial was a good as the winners. (PPFA users that receive the database updates will have this information)

11 HORSES FOR COURSES With only two tracks, Hong Kong racing is very much a horses for courses scenario. As has been discussed earlier with trainers having preferred tracks, the same obviously will apply to their runners. When assessing a runner s chance and looking and times boxes in PPFA, it s a critical factor that needs to checked and adjusted as required. The qualifying run MUST be from the track they are running at today. There will be occasions that a runner will win and the qualifying run was from the other track but in the long term it is far more beneficial to exclude these and promote runners from the right track. In the example above, the Top 2 in the RMWD have both qualified with a run at HV, with the races being at Sha Tin, when is assess this race I will deduct the allocated points from their rating UNLESS when checking their form, they are PROFICENT at Sha Tin. Assuming that they are not, I deduct from Beautiful Choice and Young Hero and then will apply a bonus to Amazing Journey and Open Sesame. I take the weights of the qualifying run vs today s weight into account and any runners with a weight drop will receive additional bonus. In the above example, the Top 2 has qualified from the right track and will not have any deductions, Sunrise and Happy Master will have points deducted as the qualifying run was at HV. Floral Picasso with 7kg weight drop and Horseshoe Fortune with 10kg weight drop in comparison with their qualifying runs will receive additional bonus under the criteria I use. TRACK RACING PATTERNS The racing patterns at Sha Tin and Happy Valley are completely different in most cases and this can provide some good windfalls. When assessing the form, position in running plays a major part of my assessment of a runners winning chance in the race depending on where they are racing

12 Sha Tin If racing down the straight, the outside rail will generally have a big advantage therefore anything drawn wide out (8-14) will get the best opportunities to find the fast lane along the outside rail. 1000m-1200m races tend to be run at a good tempo throughout and will general run 1 st 400m in sub 24.5 opening the field up. You can settle back and whilst not ideal, can still win from further back than midfield if tempo is on. 1400m-1600m races are running at slower tempo and big advantage to sit in front half of the field, certainly better to be in 1 st 6 at 400m, they can come wide and win but rarely come from near last and to win unless they find shortcuts through the field, far more difficult to come very wide from 600m and win. Front runners go ok if they are the ONLY leader; pressure tends to go on before turn and they can carve each other up and tend to drop out. The rail is generally NOT the place to be, coming 3-4 runners off the rails is the best option. 1800m-2200m races are not common and are generally run at slow tempo with 1 st 600m generally run in slower than even time, on pace big advantage especially if they have any ability. Whilst it is in most cases an advantage to race handy, runners are not too disadvantaged if they race back providing they come into the race from the 600m, if they wait until straightening it becomes very difficult to win from well back. Happy Valley A much tighter circuit and it s a definite advantage to race handy to the speed. 1000m-1200m races tend to be run at a good tempo throughout and will generally run 1 st 600m in about 34.0 a good leader will have breather middle 400m then kick at the point of the turn, difficult to run them down if they are natural front runners. You can settle back and still win but usually this can occur when there are several leaders and high speed early. 1650m tend to be slow run and a big advantage to race handy. They generally run slow 1 st 400m and no speed middle stages, tend to run home last 400m in sub 24 so wouldn t want to be more than 5-6L off the lead at 400m otherwise will need to run 22.0 last 400m to get into race. 1800m-2200m are very ordinary races for the most part are run at a farcical tempo until the 600m then speed goes on, if not coming into race at that stage very difficult to close off. SUMMARY Happy Valley tends to favour on pace runners and horses that can settle closer to speed, difficult to come from back in sprint races. Sha Tin plays a bit fairer with all runners having a chance in most cases but on speed advantage m races