SANTA ANITA (THE GREAT RACE PLACE) Saturday, May 6, 2017 FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!!

Transcription

1 SANTA ANITA (THE GREAT RACE PLACE) Saturday, May 6, 2017 FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot fillie waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than ideal conditions. californiawinning.com, Graded Selections.as follows Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. All purchases are final, and thank you.

2 I have recognized scratches up to 11 a.m. PDT, Saturday, May 6, 2017, approximate time of posting Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Check out my free Kentucky Derby Preview at californiawinning.com ( Free Daily Selections ) and ALSO appended to the end of this document. In addition, on Friday afternoon, I will be posting my detailed graded analysis for the Derby, analyzing every horse s chances. If you wish to buy the detailed, complete Kentucky Derby analysis, including the pros and cons of all starters, please go to Today s Full Racing Card and transmit $10 to my PayPal account. I will then forward the full Derby analysis to you by electronic mail. Thank you RACE 1: In this virginal maidens race (i.e., no one has raced), Private Tucker marries top trainer and heady recent works, including a bullet here on April 26. Moonlight Praise also marries top trainer and excellent works, same rationale. And so it goes for Bookies Luck, the M/L favorite, another fine Bonde entry who shows excellent works. RACE 2: Blackjackcat, the overwhelming M/L favorite, may very well walk home: he moves way down in class (this is major class relief, as his last five have all been graded races, wherein he has performed commendably), comfortably won his lone grass effort at race distance ( RD ), and carries perhaps the quintessential Left Coast rider. Roy H loves RD and the avuncular yet sophisticated Santa Anita crowd, has hit the board in seven of nine grass races, and ought to make a bid. Tribal Fighter sports truly heady recent works, including a bullet here on April 25 (five 59 3 ), he closes turf races fairly well and should challenge, at least for a while.

3 RACE 3: Cupid s Beau is the M/L favorite, in large measure because he moves down, has hit the board in his last six races, and clearly likes racing here. My Farmer likewise moves down, and he shows steady works as well. Red Carpet Cat has hit the board in his last two races and carries Mr. Bejarano, need I say more? FOR TODAY S FULL RACE CARD GO TO CALIFORNIAWINNING.COM AND CLICK ON TODAY S FULL RACE CARD TO MAKE A PAYMENT. DON T FORGET TO CHECK OUT MY FREE KENTUCKY DERBY PREVIEW appended to the end of this document and also located at Free Daily Selections and you can purchase my excellent, well-written, well-researched and accurate Kentucky Derby Selections by going to Today s Full Racing Card and clicking on the $20 button (the cost is $20). When I receive your payment of $20 I will send you an asking if you want the Derby selections or 30 days of Santa Anita Selections. Thank you. Today s deadline for payments is 2 p.m. PDT, 5 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the latest one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss

4 KENTUCKY DERBY: californiawinning.com 143rd KENTUCKY DERBY: OVERVIEW (unless otherwise stated, includes all twenty-two potential racers) Location and Time: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky, Saturday, May 6:34 P.M. EDT (watch on NBC network) Weather: Current reports (as of 9 a.m. EDT, Thursday, May 4) show a 60% chance of rain on Saturday, and at this time it is pouring there The Race: It is 1 ¼ miles, on the main track, with twenty equine athletes, all of whom are three year old colts, participating (only two contestants, Thunder Snow and Master Plan, have ever raced at one and one quarter miles) The Odds: The Morning Line favorite is set at 4/1. Two other entrants are set at 5/1. One entrant is set at 6/1. The remaining sixteen starters are set at a range of 15/1 (four horses) to 50/1 (two horses: one of those is a maiden, believe it or not).

5 The Horses Past Performances in Graded Races (general): Fifteen of the participants have won graded races before. Eight of them have won multiple graded races: Thunder Snow (3), Girvin (2), Gunnevera (3), Classic Empire (4), McCracken (2), Irish War Cry (2), Gormley (3), and Practical Joke (2). The Most Rested and the Least Rested Horses: The most rested horses will have rested since March 25, exactly 42 days (six weeks) prior to Saturday s race. There are three such horses: Thunder Snow, Fast and Accurate and Master Plan. In addition, Hence has rested since March 26 (almost six weeks). The least rested horses will have rested since April 15, exactly 21 days (a mere three weeks) prior to Saturday s race. There are four such horses: Lookin at Lee, Untrapped, Sonneteer, and Classic Empire. Nine horses will have rested since April 8, exactly 28 days (four weeks) prior to Saturday s race. These horses are Irap, Battle of Midway, J Boys Echo, McCracken, Tapwrit, Irish War Cry, Gormley, Practical Joke, and Royal Mo. Finally, five horses will have rested since April 1, exactly 35 days (five weeks) prior to Saturday s race. These horses are Always Dreaming, State of Honor, Girvin, Gunnevera, and Patch. If It Rains, How Many Horses Have Raced in Such Conditions? Thirteen of the entrants have been reported to have raced on a wet track. These horses are: Lookin at Lee, Thunder Snow, Untrapped, Hence, Irap, Gunnevera, Battle of Midway, Sonneteer, Classic Empire, Tapwrit, Gormley, Royal Mo, and Master Plan. Of those, seven horses have been reported to have won a race on a wet track. These horses are: Thunder Snow, Fast and Accurate (twice), Hence, Battle of Midway, Classic Empire, Tapwrit, Gormley, and Royal Mo.

6 Finally, five of the entrants have placed in a race reported to have taken place on a wet track (and have not won on such). These horses are: Lookin at Lee, Untrapped, Gunnevera, Sonneteer, and Master Plan. Does the Maiden Horse, Sonneteer, really have a chance? Yes, he has a chance. Twelve maidens have started in a Kentucky Derby. Three maidens have won the Kentucky derby. These horses are: Buchanan (1884), Sir Barton (1919), and Broker Tip (1933). Sir Barton went on to win the Triple Crown. The last maiden to enter the Kentucky Derby was Pendleton Ridge, in Is There Really a One-Eyed Horse in the race? Yes, Patch lost an eye to an infection and has a cavity where once an eye rested. Unlike the case of a human, there apparently is no effort to aid the unfortunate horse in a cosmetic way. How Many Trainers Have Multiple Entries in the Race, and Are There any Conspicuous Trainer Omissions? Todd Pletcher has the potential for four entrants in the Derby if there is a scratch. His horses are: Always Dreaming, Tapwrit, Patch, and Master Plan, an AE. Steve Asmussen has three entrants in the Derby: Lookin at Lee, Untrapped and Hence. John Shirreffs has the potential for two entrants in the Derby: Gormley and Royal Mo (an AE). Bob Baffert has no horse in the race. What is the Post Position that Represents the Winner of the Kentucky Derby most often?

7 Post positions 5 and 10 were each the numbers of nine winners, the most claimed by any post position. By the way, my apologies to Lookin at Lee, but no horse has won the Kentucky Derby out of the number 1 post position since Ferdinand, in Of course, there is always a first time, and a horse is a horse, of course, of course In Your Humble Opinion, How Many Entrants Have a Legitimate Shot to Win the 143 rd Kentucky Derby? In my humble opinion, seven of the entrants have a good chance of winning the race. Note that there is no overwhelming, stark favorite. NOTE: To purchase my full Derby selections, Just deposit $20 into my PayPal account, by clicking on Today s Full Racing Card and then click on a PayPal button. I will then my full, exhaustive analysis of the Derby directly to you, in PDF format. Thank you for your attention.