Population Analysis & Breeding and Transfer Plan

Transcription

1 Population Analysis & Breeding and Transfer Plan Black-Necked Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus) AZA Species Survival Plan Red SSP Program AZA Species Survival Plan Coordinator & Studbook Keeper Carmen Murach, NEW Zoo AZA Population Advisor Cara Groome Bryan, Population Management Center 18 January 2017

2 Executive Summary Species Survival Plan for the Black-Necked Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus) The current black-necked stilt population is 49 ( ) individuals at 18 AZA institutions and 2 non-aza institutions. This species is currently considered its own species, though in the past has been considered a subspecies of the blackwinged stilt (Himantopus himantopus). The Charadriiformes Taxon Advisory Group (TAG) has designated a target size of 80 individuals for the black-necked stilt SSP in their 2011 Regional Collection Plan (RCP). This population currently qualifies as a Red SSP Program. Based on an analytical studbook with extensive assumptions (See Appendix A), the current black-necked stilt population is descended from 16 founders with 2 potential founders remaining in the population. Efforts should be made to recruit these potential founders into the breeding population. The current gene diversity of the descendant population is 91.56%. This current gene diversity is equivalent to almost 6 unrelated animals (FGE=5.93). Long-term projections based on a growth rate of approximately 4% (lambda = 1.04) and a target size of 80, indicate that gene diversity will decline to approximately 76% over the next 10 generations. When gene diversity falls below 90% of that in the founding population, it is expected that reproduction and survival may be increasingly compromised. Demography Current size of population (N) Total (Males.Females.Unknown Sex) 49 ( ) Number of individuals excluded from management 4 (2.2) Population size following exclusions 45 ( ) Target population size from RCP Mean generation time, T (years) 8.1 *Historical / 5 year / Projected population growth rate ( ; lambda) / / *Historical from life tables (SSP, 1969 present); 5-year from PopLink census; Projected from PMx stochastic 20 yr projections Genetics Based on analytical studbook with extensive assumptions Current Potential Current Founders 16 2 Founder genome equivalents (FGE) Gene diversity (GD %) Population mean kinship (MK) Mean inbreeding (F) Effective population size/census size ratio (Ne / N) Percentage of pedigree known before assumptions & exclusions Percentage of pedigree known after assumptions & exclusions Projections λ = 1 λ = 1.04, Target size = 80 Years To 90% Gene Diversity 4 5 Years to 10% Loss of Gene Diversity Gene Diversity at 100 Years From Present (%) Gene Diversity in 10 Generations From Present (Tx10) Demographic analyses indicate that at least 5 hatches in the coming year are required to maintain the population at its current size. To achieve an annual population growth rate of approximately 4% (λ=1.04) and reach the target population size of 80 in 12 years, approximately 7 hatches per year are needed in the coming years. Due to historic unknown pedigree, extensive assumptions were developed for this species to allow genetic management. These assumptions may over or under estimate the current gene diversity and mean kinship of the current population. Institutions are encouraged to investigate the historic origins of their unknown pedigree animals and record parentage for all new offspring in order to help determine relatedness and genetic importance of animals within the living population. Where possible, existing breeding groups were left together and breeding recommendations were prioritized to maintain or increase gene diversity through consideration of mean kinship (prioritizing breeding for low mean kinship animals and minimizing differences in sire and dam mean kinships), avoidance of inbreeding, and institutional needs. Institutions recommended to breed are expected to hold offspring for at least one year. Summary Actions: The Program recommends 11 females for breeding. In addition, 7 transfers are recommended to facilitate new breeding or to meet institutional requests. 1

3 Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Description of Population Status Introduction 3 Analytical Population 3 Demography 4 Genetics 5 Management Strategy 6 Recommendations Summary Recommendations 7 BLOOMINGT, BUSCH TAM, CHICAGOLP, COLUMBIA 8 CORPUS CH, FRESNO, GREENBAY, JACKSON, LONG B AQ, LOUISVILL 9 MEMPHIS, MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA, MONTERYAQ, NZP-WASH 10 PHOENIX, SANJOSECA, SCOT NECK, TRACY AV, WACO 11 Appendices A. Pedigree Assumptions 12 B. Summary of Data Exports 15 C. Animals Excluded from Genetic Analysis 15 D. Life Tables 16 E. Ordered Mean Kinship List 18 F. Descriptive Survival Statistics Report 19 G. Definitions 21 H. Directory of Institutional Representatives 23 Acknowledgments SSP Coordinator/AZA Studbook Keeper: Carmen Murach, NEW Zoo Murach_CD@co.brown.wi.us Report and Analyses Prepared By: Cara Groome Bryan, Consulting Population Biologist, Population Management Center cgroome@lpzoo.org The black-neck stilt planning meeting was held via phone / internet conference on 15 December 2016, attended by: Carmen Murach, SSP Coordinator/Studbook Keeper, NEW Zoo Cara Groome Bryan, Population Management Center Cover photo credit: Sue Ascher, Northern Wisconsin Zoo Volunteer, August This plan was prepared and distributed with the assistance of the AZA Population Management Center in Chicago. pmc@lpzoo.org 2

4 Description of Population Status Species Survival Plan for the Black-Necked Stilt (Himantopus mexicanus) Introduction: The current black-necked stilt population is 49 ( ) individuals at 18 AZA institutions and 2 non- AZA institutions. This species is currently considered its own species, though in the past has been considered a subspecies of the black-winged stilt (Himantopus himantopus). The Charadriiformes Taxon Advisory Group (TAG) has designated a target size of 80 individuals for the black-necked stilt SSP in their 2011 Regional Collection Plan (RCP). This population currently qualifies as a Red SSP Program. Comprehensive genetic and demographic analyses of the black-necked stilt population were performed in December 2016, resulting in the current breeding and transfer plan for this species. Analyses of the North American Black- Necked Stilt Studbook (current to 5 October 2016) were performed using PopLink 2.4, and PMx This is the second breeding and transfer plan for the black-necked stilt. Recommendations proposed in a Red SSP Plan are non-binding; participation is voluntary. Analytical Studbook: The current Black-Necked Stilt Studbook has data from 1969 to present. According the SSP Coordinator successful breeding of this species did not occur until this time, though the species was held in zoos for many years previous to this first hatching. Extensive assumptions were applied to resolve pedigree unknownness within the black-necked stilt population (Appendix A). These assumptions have affected the projected genetics of the population as they may be over or under estimating the amount of inbreeding and genetic diversity within the current living population. Assumptions were made to connect all BUSCH TAM animals to historic wild caught animals which were brought in as a group and bred from the 1970s to the mid-1980s. Without records of parentage it is difficult to determine which animals from this institution may be related. To prevent future inbreeding in the future, animals with unknown pedigree were all given the same parents from BUSCH TAM (See Appendix A). Additional assumptions were made at several other institutions for individuals with unknown or multiple possible parents. Institutions are encouraged to record parentage of all individuals to allow for more accurate genetic management in the future. In addition, any institutions with information on the pedigree history of their animals are encouraged to contact the SSP Coordinator. Four individuals (2.2) were excluded from the breeding population for age (Appendix C). After exclusions, there were 45 birds remaining in the potentially breeding population. 3

5 Demography: Black-necked stilts began successfully breeding in North American zoos in However, this species was not held in large numbers until the early 1980s. Zoo breeding and the occasional importation from the wild has allowed the population to continue growing, reaching its peak size in The population slightly decreased in 2010 due to more deaths in the population than births (Figures 1). Growth rates for the black-necked stilt population over the last 10 years have ranged from with an overall growth rate of λ=0.961). Over the last 5 years, the population has been growing at a slightly slower rate of approximately λ= Male Female Total Wild Hatch Unknown Total Unknown Captive Hatch Figure 1. Census of black-necked stilt population in AZA by sex (left) and hatch type (right). Demographic projections estimate that to keep this population stable (0% growth); at least 5 hatches in the coming year are necessary. According to studbook data, the North America black-necked stilt population typically has 1 to 4 chicks per clutch with a mean of 1.5 chicks per clutch. Over the past 10 years, the AZA population has had an average of approximately 7 chicks per year; over the past 5 years however there have been fewer with only 3-4 chicks per year. A growth rate of 4% (λ= 1.04) would require 7 hatches per year in the coming years, and allow the population to reach the target population size of 80 in approximately 12 years. Figure 2. Age structure of the Black-necked Stilt SSP population. The age structure does not approximate a stable distribution as it has many sparse or empty age classes. In addition, there is a male sex bias within the population which is not conducive to the breeding biology of this species. The Program should focus on breeding a steady amount of hatches in order to continue this broad base and continue to fill of the breeding age classes in the future. Based on studbook data from 1969 to present, juvenile mortality for the black-necked stilts is 18% for males and 27% for females (Appendix D). The oldest recorded male in the North American black-necked stilt population lived to be 26 years old and the oldest female stilt was 24 years old. Both male and female black-necked stilts have been recorded as breeding at one year old. The oldest male and female in the population to have bred were both 16 years old. Black-necked stilts are somewhat seasonal with over 50% of the hatches occurring in June and July. 4

6 GENETIC SUMMARY* Current Potential Current Founders 16 2 Founder genome equivalents (FGE) Gene diversity (GD %) Population mean kinship (MK) Mean inbreeding (F) Effective population size/census size ratio (Ne / N) Percentage of pedigree known before assumptions & exclusions Percentage of pedigree known after assumptions & exclusions Projections λ = 1 λ = 1.04, Target size = 80 Years To 90% Gene Diversity 4 5 Years to 10% Loss of Gene Diversity Gene Diversity at 100 Years From Present (%) Gene Diversity in 10 Generations From Present (Tx10) *Based on analytical studbook with extensive pedigree assumptions (See Appendix A). Genetics: Extensive assumptions were created to resolve pedigree unknownness and avoid inbreeding within the managed population. Please note these assumptions may over or under estimate the amount of inbreeding and genetic diversity within the current living population. Based on the studbook with assumptions, the potentially breeding black-necked stilt population is descended from 16 founders with 2 additional potential founders remaining in the population (Figure 3). Current gene diversity in the population is 91.56%, equivalent to that found in almost 6 unrelated individuals (FGE = 5.93). Long-term projections indicate that gene diversity would decrease to approximately 76% in 10 generations (assuming growth rate of 1.04 and a target size of 80). When gene diversity falls below 90% of that in the founding population, it is expected that reproduction will be increasingly compromised by, among other factors, lower hatch weights, and greater neonatal mortality. To retain gene diversity for a longer period of time and possibly recruit additional potential gene diversity, potential founders should be recruited into the breeding population and animals with low mean kinship values should be paired and prioritized for breeding in order to equalize the different founder lineages. Other strategies that could reduce the loss of gene diversity include; increasing the population s Ne/N ratio (number of animals breeding), growing the population at a faster rate, and acquiring additional founders. Figure 3. Founder representation graph illustrating the inequality of the founder lineages represented in the current black-necked stilt population. This graph is based on extensive pedigree assumptions. 5

7 Management Strategy: The current black-necked stilt population is 49 ( ) individuals at 18 AZA institutions and 2 non-aza institutions. Demographic analyses indicate that at least 5 hatches in the coming year are required to maintain the current population size (lambda = 1.00). To increase the population to the target size of 80 in the next 12 years (lambda=1.04), approximately 7 hatches per year are needed in the coming years. Pairings have been recommended with the consideration of mean kinship, maximum avoidance of inbreeding, differences in sire and dam mean kinships, and the needs of individual institutions in an attempt to maintain gene diversity for as long as possible. This is the second breeding and transfer plan for the Black-necked stilt program. 1. Recommends 11 females for breeding in AZA. Institutions recommended to breed are expected to hold offspring for at least 1 year. Since this is a three year plan for this program, please allow your pairs to breed annually. 2. Institutions are encouraged to track and record parentage of all chicks hatched in order to facilitate genetic management of this species. Individuals of unknown pedigree cannot be prioritized for placement. Institutions should band or otherwise individually identify birds for easy visual differentiation. 3. Recommends 7 transfers within the program to address institutional requests or to make new companion or breeding pairs. 4. Institutions interested in obtaining or placing black-necked stilt should contact the SSP Coordinator to coordinate transfers that will facilitate genetic and demographic stability. 5. Institutions contacted by rehabilitation facilities are asked to contact the SSP Coordinator to coordinate the best placement for these individuals. 6

8 SUMMARY OF BREEDING AND TRANSFER RECOMMENDATIONS UniqueID Location Sex Age Disposition New Location Breeding With RecNotes 85 BLOOMINGT M 13 HOLD BLOOMINGT DO NOT BREED 99 BLOOMINGT F 8 SEND TO MILWAUKEE BREED WITH BUSCH TAM M 17 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH BUSCH TAM M 3 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH BUSCH TAM F 3 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH BUSCH TAM F 1 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH BUSCH TAM M 17 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH BUSCH TAM F 14 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH CHICAGOLP F 13 HOLD CHICAGOLP BREED WITH CHICAGOLP M 7 HOLD CHICAGOLP BREED WITH CHICAGOLP M 0 SEND TO BLOOMINGT DO NOT BREED 141 COLUMBIA M 7 HOLD COLUMBIA BREED WITH COLUMBIA F 1 HOLD COLUMBIA BREED WITH CORPUS CH M 6 HOLD CORPUS CH DO NOT BREED 217 CORPUS CH M 0 HOLD CORPUS CH DO NOT BREED 74 FRESNO F 14 SEND TO PHOENIX BREED WITH FRESNO M 9 HOLD FRESNO DO NOT BREED 39 GREENBAY M 24 HOLD GREENBAY DO NOT BREED Excluded 83 JACKSON M 13 HOLD JACKSON DO NOT BREED 91 JACKSON M 11 HOLD JACKSON DO NOT BREED 148 LONG B AQ F -- HOLD LONG B AQ BREED WITH 165 Potential founder, prioritize breeding 165 LONG B AQ M 6 HOLD LONG B AQ BREED WITH LOUISVILL M 15 HOLD LOUISVILL DO NOT BREED 49 LOUISVILL F 21 HOLD LOUISVILL DO NOT BREED Excluded 50 LOUISVILL F 21 HOLD LOUISVILL DO NOT BREED Excluded 45 MEMPHIS M 21 HOLD MEMPHIS DO NOT BREED Excluded 77 MILWAUKEE M 14 HOLD MILWAUKEE BREED WITH MINNESOTA F 14 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED WITH MINNESOTA M 14 HOLD MINNESOTA DO NOT BREED 142 MINNESOTA M 7 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED WITH MINNESOTA F 5 SEND TO MONTERYAQ BREED WITH MINNESOTA M 0 SEND TO TRACY AV DO NOT BREED 124 MONTERYAQ M 7 SEND TO FRESNO DO NOT BREED 219 NZP-WASH M 0 HOLD NZP-WASH BREED WITH NZP-WASH F 0 HOLD NZP-WASH BREED WITH PHOENIX M 8 SEND TO MONTERYAQ BREED WITH PHOENIX M 0 HOLD PHOENIX BREED WITH SANJOSECA M 7 HOLD SANJOSECA DO NOT BREED 206 SCOT NECK F 6 HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES See institutional table 207 SCOT NECK F 6 HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES See institutional table 200 SCOT NECK F -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES See institutional table 201 SCOT NECK M -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES See institutional table 202 SCOT NECK F -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES See institutional table 203 SCOT NECK M -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES See institutional table 204 SCOT NECK M -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES See institutional table 205 SCOT NECK M -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES See institutional table 167 TRACY AV M 6 HOLD TRACY AV DO NOT BREED 82 WACO M 13 HOLD WACO DO NOT BREED 171 WACO Unknown 5 HOLD WACO DO NOT BREED 7

9 BLOOMINGT Miller Park Zoo Bloomington, IL Black-Necked Stilt SSP DRAFT RECOMMENDATIONS BY INSTITUTION 85 B05083 M 13 HOLD BLOOMINGT DO NOT BREED 99 B10002 F 8 SEND TO MILWAUKEE BREED WITH M 0 RECEIVE FROM CHICAGOLP DO NOT BREED BUSCH TAM Busch Gardens Tampa Bay Tampa, FL M 17 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH 197 or M 3 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH 153 or 238 See matrix F 3 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH 151 or 150 below for F 1 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH 150, 151 or 196 suitable mates M 17 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH 238 or F 14 HOLD BUSCH TAM BREED WITH Breed DNB Breed 238 Breed Breed Breed 153 DNB Breed DNB CHICAGOLP Lincoln Park Zoological Gardens Chicago, IL F 13 HOLD CHICAGOLP BREED WITH M 7 HOLD CHICAGOLP BREED WITH M 0 SEND TO BLOOMINGT DO NOT BREED COLUMBIA Riverbanks Zoo and Garden Columbia, SC M 7 HOLD COLUMBIA BREED WITH F 1 HOLD COLUMBIA BREED WITH 141 8

10 CORPUS CH Texas State Aquarium Corpus Christi, TX 166 B16050 M 6 HOLD CORPUS CH DO NOT BREED 217 B16051 M 0 HOLD CORPUS CH DO NOT BREED FRESNO Fresno Chaffee Zoo Fresno, CA F 14 SEND TO PHOENIX BREED WITH M 9 HOLD FRESNO DO NOT BREED M 7 RECEIVE FROM MONTERYAQ DO NOT BREED GREENBAY NEW Zoo Green Bay, WI M 24 HOLD GREENBAY DO NOT BREED Excluded JACKSON Jackson Zoological Park Jackson, MS M 13 HOLD JACKSON DO NOT BREED M 11 HOLD JACKSON DO NOT BREED LONG B AQ Aquarium of the Pacific, Long Beach Long Beach, CA 148 HM-07- F -- HOLD LONG B AQ BREED WITH 165 Potential founder, prioritize breeding 165 UM1501 M 6 HOLD LONG B AQ BREED WITH 148 LOUISVILL Louisville Zoological Garden Louisville, KY M 15 HOLD LOUISVILL DO NOT BREED F 21 HOLD LOUISVILL DO NOT BREED Excluded F 21 HOLD LOUISVILL DO NOT BREED Excluded 9

11 MEMPHIS Memphis Zoological Garden and Aquarium Memphis, TN M 21 HOLD MEMPHIS DO NOT BREED Excluded MILWAUKEE Milwaukee County Zoological Gardens Milwaukee, WI 77 B4579 M 14 HOLD MILWAUKEE BREED WITH B10002 F 8 RECEIVE FROM BLOOMINGT BREED WITH 77 MINNESOTA Minnesota Zoological Garden Apple Valley, MN F 14 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED WITH M 14 HOLD MINNESOTA DO NOT BREED M 7 HOLD MINNESOTA BREED WITH F 5 SEND TO MONTERYAQ BREED WITH M 0 SEND TO TRACY AV DO NOT BREED MONTERYAQ Monterey Bay Aquarium Monterey, CA M 7 SEND TO FRESNO DO NOT BREED F 5 RECEIVE FROM MINNESOTA BREED WITH M 8 RECEIVE FROM PHOENIX BREED WITH 175 NZP-WASH Smithsonian National Zoological Park Washington, DC M 0 HOLD NZP-WASH BREED WITH F 0 HOLD NZP-WASH BREED WITH

12 PHOENIX Phoenix Zoo Phoenix, AZ M 8 SEND TO MONTERYAQ BREED WITH M 0 HOLD PHOENIX BREED WITH F 14 RECEIVE FROM FRESNO BREED WITH 225 SANJOSECA Happy Hollow Zoo San Jose, CA M 7 HOLD SANJOSECA DO NOT BREED SCOT NECK Sylvan Heights Waterfowl Scotland Neck, NC 206 Green F 6 HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES Breed at institutional discretion 207 red lt F 6 HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES Breed at institutional discretion si F -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES Breed at institutional discretion si M -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES Breed at institutional discretion NL7 F -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES Breed at institutional discretion 203 1NL7 M -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES Breed at institutional discretion NL7 M -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES Breed at institutional discretion NL7 M -- HOLD SCOT NECK SEE NOTES Breed at institutional discretion TRACY AV Tracy Aviary Salt Lake City, UT M 6 HOLD TRACY AV DO NOT BREED M 0 RECEIVE FROM MINNESOTA DO NOT BREED WACO Cameron Park Zoo Waco, TX 82 B02803 M 13 HOLD WACO DO NOT BREED 171 B01811 U 5 HOLD WACO DO NOT BREED 11

13 Appendix A Pedigree Assumptions HYPOTHETICAL SPECIMENS Studbook Sire Dam Notes ID HYP MULT14 potential sires are 39, 42, and was most likely too young to breed at this time. 39 has offspring and is still living, 42 has offspring in the population. HYP1=39x42. HYP MULT15 potential dams are 40, 41, and never bred and has pedigree already represented by 40 and and 41 both have living offspring. HYP2=40x41 HYP Represent one of the 2nd generation breeding pairs at BUSCH TAM. The other pairs were 52 x 53 and 115 x is a sibling to these animals. 62 was a bird that went from ORLANDO to BUSCH and bred at BUSCH TAM. These assumptions connect the BUCH TAM lineage with the ORLANDO lineage to the third generation animals. HYP Represent one of the 2nd generation breeding pairs at BUSCH TAM. The other pairs were 61 x 62 and 115 x 116. These animals are siblings to 115 and 116, chosen arbitrarily to represent the 1st generation lineage. These assumptions connect the BUCH TAM lineage with the ORLANDO lineage to the third generation animals. HYP MULT5 potential sires are 8, 46, 119, 117, and is the offspring of 8 and dam of this individuals, so did not include in assumptions. 113 and 114 are the parents of 117 and 118. HYP MULT5 potential sires are 8, 46, 119, 117, and is the offspring of 8 and dam of this individuals, so did not include in assumptions. 113 and 114 are the parents of 117 and 118. HYP7 WILD WILD Hypothetical parent of birds imported to SCOT NECK from Denmark HYP Possible sires in MULT25 HYP Possible sires in MULT25 HYP10 HYP8 HYP9 HYP HYP HYP13 HYP11 HYP12 ANALYTICAL DATA FOR TRUE SPECIMENS Studbook Field True Overlay Notes ID 1 Dam UNK WILD This individual came in in 1969, the first year captive breeding was recorded with note Sire UNK WILD purchased from unknown." Most likely not from a zoo, assume wild caught or rehab bird. 104 Sire MULT4 76 MULT4 = Potential sires 39, 76, 83, and , 83, and 91 are all offspring of was breeding with offspring's dam (#84) at this time. Assume 76 is sire. 115 Dam MULT7 113 BUSCH TAM has records of approx. 12 wild caught animals that came in during the Sire MULT6 114 early 1980s, of these it looks like 8 made it to adulthood. It is assumed that the birds in the studbook that were hatched from this time to about 1997 were offspring of these animals. There is no record of which animals bred and which did not, assume that all animals hatched at this time came from wild caught parents 113 and 114 to connect all birds to the wild caught founders. 116 Dam MULT7 113 BUSCH TAM has records of approx. 12 wild caught animals that came in during the Sire MULT6 114 early 1980s, of these it looks like 8 made it to adulthood. It is assumed that the birds in the studbook that were hatched from this time to about 1997 were offspring of these animals. There is no record of which animals bred and which did not, assume that all animals hatched at this time came from wild caught parents 113 and 114 to connect all birds to the wild caught founders. 13 Dam MULT1 7 MULT1 potential dams are 7 and is wild caught with many living descendants. 15 is thought to be wild caught but no living offspring. 133 Dam MULT16 HYP4 Connects the second generation animals to the third generation. HYP3 = 61x 62 HYP4 Sire MULT17 HYP3 = 52 x 53 (represents 1st generation) 14 Dam UNK WILD This animal says it was captive hatched at San Antonio, however it was the first Sire UNK WILD recorded bird at this facility and there before captive breeding became abundant. Assume wild caught bird. 150 Dam MULT23 HYP4 Connects the second generation animals to the third generation. HYP3 = 61x 62 HYP4 Sire MULT24 HYP3 = 52 x 53 (represents 1st generation) 152 Dam MULT19 HYP4 Connects the second generation animals to the third generation. HYP3 = 61x 62 HYP4 12

14 Sire MULT22 HYP3 = 52 x 53 (represents 1st generation) 153 Dam MULT19 HYP4 Connects the second generation animals to the third generation. HYP3 = 61x 62 HYP4 Sire MULT21 HYP3 = 52 x 53 (represents 1st generation) 154 Dam MULT19 HYP4 Connects the second generation animals to the third generation. HYP3 = 61x 62 HYP4 Sire MULT20 HYP3 = 52 x 53 (represents 1st generation) 155 Dam MULT19 HYP4 Connects the second generation animals to the third generation. HYP3 = 61x 62 HYP4 Sire MULT20 HYP3 = 52 x 53 (represents 1st generation) 160 Dam MULT16 HYP4 Connects the second generation animals to the third generation. HYP3 = 61x 62 HYP4 Sire MULT17 HYP3 = 52 x 53 (represents 1st generation) 163 Dam MULT18 HYP4 Connects the second generation animals to the third generation. HYP3 = 61x 62 HYP4 Sire MULT17 HYP3 = 52 x 53 (represents 1st generation) 168 Dam MULT12 59 Parents were actually known but there was confusion with which birds were sent to this Sire MULT11 57 institution. Reassigned numbers to birds so they are accurate to HOMOSASSA records. 176 Dam MULT Potential parents at LOSANGELE during time of hatch were all unknown sexed Sire MULT13 10 animals: 10, 178, and and 178 were known wild caught animals and 180 was from a Private facility but thought to be wild caught and left no offspring in the population. Choose 10 and 178 as potential parents. 177 Dam MULT Potential parents at LOSANGELE during time of hatch were all unknown sexed Sire MULT13 10 animals: 10, 178, and and 178 were known wild caught animals and 180 was from a Private facility but thought to be wild caught and left no offspring in the population. Choose 10 and 178 as potential parents. 27 Dam UNK 193 This individual and #26 were likely offspring of wild caught birds (brought in as eggs) to Sire UNK 192 SEAWORLD. 49 Dam MULT15 HYP2 MULT14 potential sires are 39, 42, and was most likely too young to breed at this time. 39 has offspring and is still living, 42 has offspring in the population. HYP1=39x42. Sire MULT14 HYP1 MULT14 potential sires are 39, 42, and was most likely too young to breed at this time. 39 has offspring and is still living, 42 has offspring in the population. HYP1=39x Dam MULT15 HYP2 MULT14 potential sires are 39, 42, and was most likely too young to breed at this time. 39 has offspring and is still living, 42 has offspring in the population. HYP1=39x42. Sire MULT14 HYP1 MULT14 potential sires are 39, 42, and was most likely too young to breed at this time. 39 has offspring and is still living, 42 has offspring in the population. HYP1=39x Dam MULT7 113 BUSCH TAM has records of approx. 12 wild caught animals that came in during the Sire MULT6 114 early 1980s, of these it looks like 8 made it to adulthood. It is assumed that the birds in the studbook that were hatched from this time to about 1997 were offspring of these animals. There is no record of which animals bred and which did not, assume that all animals hatched at this time came from wild caught parents 113 and 114 to connect all birds to the wild caught founders. 53 Dam MULT7 113 BUSCH TAM has records of approx. 12 wild caught animals that came in during the Sire MULT6 114 early 1980s, of these it looks like 8 made it to adulthood. It is assumed that the birds in the studbook that were hatched from this time to about 1997 were offspring of these animals. There is no record of which animals bred and which did not, assume that all animals hatched at this time came from wild caught parents 113 and 114 to connect all birds to the wild caught founders. 56 Dam 17 HYP6 MULT5 potential sires are 8, 46, 119, 117, and is the offspring of 8 and dam of Sire MULT5 HYP5 this individuals, so did not include in assumptions. 113 and 114 are the parents of 117 and Dam MULT10 HYP4 Connects the second generation animals to the third generation. HYP3 = 61x 62 HYP4 Sire MULT9 HYP3 = 52 x 53 (represents 1st generation) MULT10 HYP4 Connects the second generation animals to the third generation. HYP3 = 61x 62 HYP4 59 Dam = 52 x 53 (represents 1st generation) Sire MULT9 HYP3 61 Dam UNK 113 BUSCH TAM has records of approx. 12 wild caught animals that came in during the Sire UNK 114 early 1980s, of these it looks like 8 made it to adulthood. It is assumed that the birds in the studbook that were hatched from this time to about 1997 were offspring of these animals. There is no record of which animals bred and which did not, assume that all animals hatched at this time came from wild caught parents 113 and 114 to connect all birds to the wild caught founders. 62 Dam UNK WILD Orlando at this time was believed to have one wild caught pair breeding and possibly 13

15 Sire UNK WILD getting additional animals in from the wild. All other relatives of #62 are no longer living. Assume wild caught. 80 Dam MULT2 41 Potential dams at time of hatch were 75, 79, and and 79 are offspring of 41. Assume dam is Dam MULT2 41 Potential dams at time of hatch were 75, 79, and and 79 are offspring of 41. Assume dam is Dam MULT2 41 Potential dams at time of hatch were 75, 79, and and 79 are offspring of 41. Assume dam is Dam UNK WILD Sire UNK HYP7 201 Dam UNK WILD Sire UNK HYP7 202 Dam UNK WILD Sire UNK HYP7 203 Dam UNK WILD Sire UNK HYP7 204 Dam UNK WILD Sire UNK HYP7 205 Dam UNK WILD Sire UNK HYP7 220 Dam MULT 27 HYP13 Sire MULT 25 HYP Dam MULT 27 HYP13 Sire MULT 25 HYP Dam MULT 27 HYP13 Sire MULT 25 HYP Dam MULT 26 HYP11 Sire MULT 25 HYP Dam MULT 26 HYP11 Sire MULT 25 HYP10 BUSH TAM Assumptions: According to taxon reports provided by Busch Tampa, the majority of birds from 1975 to 1983 were wild caught, unrelated birds (approximately 12 animals with 8 surviving to adulthood). Of these wild caught birds, only female 113 was recorded as reproducing, the majority of other individuals were listed as unknown sex. Individuals 52, 53, 61, 115, 116 were all hatched at BUSCH TAM and then produced their own offspring.since there are no records on which of the wild caught birds bred or how these individuals might be related, all five of these animals were given parents 113 and 114 (the only two of these 12 birds that are in the current studbook) since it is possible that only one pair was breeding at the time, making these animals siblings and to prevent inbreeding in the future. Busch Tampa was mostly a closed institution, from records it looks like they only received a few animals from other institutions (mainly ORLANDO). Only one of these animals from outside BUSCH is recorded as successfully breeding at BUSCH (#62). From records it looks as though the first generation animals (plus #62) began producing offspring around All animals hatched after 1997 were given HYP3 (61 x 62) and HYP 4 (52 x 53) parents to represent the potential parents at BUSCH TAM at the time of hatch. SCOT NECK Assumptions (added 2016): SCOT NECK birds came from Denmark originally; there were 4 birds in the parent colony that were imported. It was reported that there was relatedness among the group but there was no inbreeding between each pair of birds. It is unknown which birds were paired by the importer. Based on this information and the assumed small size of the population in Europe, we made the assumption that the four original birds at Scot neck were on average half-siblings they share a common sire but unique dams. 14

16 Appendix B Summary of Data Exports PMx Project: BNStilt2016b Created: by PMx version File: C:\PMxProjects\BNStilt2016b.pmxproj Primary data file Data File Name: XXBNStilt.ped Common Name: Black-necked stilt Scientific Name: Himantopus mexicanus Data Source: PopLink Studbook Name: BNStilt Exported On: Software version: PopLink 2.4 Current through: Compiled by: Carmen Murach Scope: AZA Dates: Locations: N.AMERICA Association: Other Filters: Status = Living User: cgroome Locations data file Data File Name: location.txt Demographic input files MPrn file: mxxbnstilt.prn FPrn file: fxxbnstilt.prn Male LifeTable filter: *Dates: to *Locations: N.AMERICA *Association: *Other Filters: Status = Living *User: cgroome Female LifeTable filter: *Dates: to *Locations: N.AMERICA *Association: *Other Filters: Status = Living *User: cgroome Appendix C Animals Excluded from the Genetic Analysis Studbook ID Institution Sex Age Reason for Exclusion 39 GREENBAY M 24 Age 45 MEMPHIS M 21 Age 49 LOUISVILL F 21 Age 50 LOUISVILL F 21 Age 15

17 Appendix D Life Tables Males Age (years) Px Mid Px Qx Risk Qx Lx Mid Lx Mx Risk Mx Ex Vx Cx r = 0.021, lambda = 1.022, T = 8.6, N20 = 43 Qx = mortality; Px = survival; Lx = cumulative survivorship; Mx = fecundity; Vx = expected future reproduction 16

18 Females Age (years) Px Mid Px Qx Risk Qx Lx Mid Lx Mx Risk Mx Ex Vx Cx r = 0.052, lambda = 1.054, T = 7.7, N20 = 38 Qx = mortality; Px = survival; Lx = cumulative survivorship; Mx = fecundity; Vx = expected future reproduction 17

19 Appendix E Ordered Mean Kinship Note: Values are subject to change with any hatch, death, import, export, inclusion, exclusion, or changes in pedigree or pedigree assumptions. Unknown sexed animals show on both lists. Population MK = Males Females UniqueID MKdynamic MKdynRank Location Age UniqueID MKdynamic MKdynRank Location Age PHOENIX LONG B AQ PHOENIX BUSCH TAM MILWAUKEE BLOOMINGT BUSCH TAM BUSCH TAM BUSCH TAM BUSCH TAM BUSCH TAM SCOT NECK CORPUS CH SCOT NECK SCOT NECK FRESNO SCOT NECK SCOT NECK SCOT NECK SCOT NECK SCOT NECK COLUMBIA FRESNO NZP-WASH COLUMBIA MINNESOTA LONG B AQ WACO CORPUS CH MINNESOTA MINNESOTA CHICAGOLP TRACY AV CHICAGOLP LOUISVILL NZP-WASH MINNESOTA WACO JACKSON BLOOMINGT JACKSON WACO CHICAGOLP MINNESOTA SANJOSECA MONTERYAQ 7 18

20 REPORT OVERVIEW: Black-Necked Stilt SSP DRAFT Appendix F Descriptive Survival Statistics Report Black-necked stilt Studbook Himantopus mexicanus AZA Studbook Studbook data current as of 10/5/2016 Compiled by Carmen Murach Murach_CD@co.brown.wi.us PopLink Studbook filename: BNStilt + XXSTILT PopLink User Who Exported Report: cgroome Date of Export: 12/21/2016 Data Filtered by: StartDate = 1/1/1969 AND EndDate = 12/21/2016 PopLink Version: 2.4 The data for females were not of sufficient robustness to analyze and report female survival statistics. Based on this analysis, if a male Blacknecked stilt survives to its first birthday, its median life expectancy is 12.6 years. Please see the body of the report for more details. BACKGROUND ON ANALYSES: These analyses were conducted using animals that lived during the period 1 January 1969 to 21 December 2016 at all institutions in the studbook. The analyses mainly focus on survival statistics from 1 year (e.g. excluding any individuals that did not survive past their first birthday). These statistics most accurately reflect typical survival for animals which can be seen on exhibit in zoos and aquariums. This report summarizes survival records of individuals housed at zoological facilities for a specific geographic range and time period; these records trace an individual's history from birth or entry into the population to death, exit out of the population, or the end of the time period. As such, this history only reflects standard practices - including management, husbandry, and acquisition/disposition practices - for the specified time period and geographic range. Thus, the report contents should be viewed with some caution as they may not fully reflect current and newly emerging zoo and aquarium management techniques or practices. For example, if the population has not been maintained in zoos and aquariums long enough to have many adults living into old age, median life expectancy will likely be an underestimate until more data accrue in older age classes. Thus, users of these reports should recognize that the results produced will likely vary over time or depending on the subset of data selected. Data were not of sufficient quality to analyze and report survival statistics for females (see Data Quality section). Because of this, statistical differences between male and female statistics could not be calculated and results are only reported for males. SUMMARY OF ANALYSES: SURVIVAL STATISTICS The dataset used for analysis includes partial or full lifespans of 76 male individuals, 47 (61.8%) of which had died by 21 December If a male Black-necked stilt survives to its first birthday, its median life expectancy 1 is 12.6 years of age. Given the quality of the data - how many animals are in the database and how many have died - there is a 95% chance that the true median falls between 9.8 and 14.8 years of age (i.e., these are the 95% confidence limits). Only 25% of male Black-necked stilt can be expected to survive to be 20.3 years or older. First-year (infant) survival 2 for male Black-necked stilt is 79%. The year after birth/hatching is a period of relatively low survival for many species and life histories. The maximum longevity 3 observed for male Black-necked stilt is 26.2 years; this longevity record is based on an individual which was DEAD as of the analysis end date (studbook number 24, sex = Male, origin = Wild Hatch, birth date estimate = Year). 4 The correct interpretation of these statistics is that, if it survives the first year of life, the 'typical' Black-necked stilt male will live 12.6 years; that half of all Black-necked stilt males can be expected to die before they reach 12.6 and half will live longer than 12.6; that only 25% of all male Black-necked stilt can be expected to live 20.3 years; and that it is rare but possible for Black-necked stilt males to live 26.2 years. There are not enough data to determine whether these values are representative of both sexes. The median life expectancy, confidence interval, first-year survival, and maximum longevity may change as more data are accumulated, the population's age structure changes, or management practices improve. While both median life expectancy and maximum longevity are discussed in this report, it is more appropriate to rely on median life expectancy to place the age of any one individual in context. To put these statistics in perspective, median life expectancy from age one for people in the United 19

21 States is 77.5 years and the maximum longevity (documented worldwide) is 122 years 5. Therefore, if a person lived to be 85 years old, the appropriate context is that they lived well beyond the median life expectancy (77.5), not that they fell short of the maximum longevity (122). DATA QUALITY The PopLink Survival Tool uses five data quality measures to determine whether data are robust enough to make reliable estimates of key survival parameters. The male subset of data for this population passed all of the following tests, while the female subset failed one or more of the tests: 1. Can the median life expectancy be calculated? FEMALE PASS 2. Is the sample size (number of individuals at risk) greater than 20 individuals at the median? FEMALE FAIL 3. Is the 95% Confidence Interval (CI) bounded? FEMALE PASS 4. Is the sample size in the first age class of analysis (e.g. the first day of analysis) greater than 30 individuals? FEMALE PASS 5. Is the length of the 95% CI < 33% of the maximum longevity? FEMALE FAIL PopLink data validation has never been run; if errors are present in this studbook, they may affect the data in this analysis. 1 The statistics analyzed for this report (median life expectancy, 95% confidence limits, and age to which 25% of individuals survive) exclude any individuals who did not survive to their first birthday; these individuals are excluded because this Report is focused on providing median survival estimates for the typical individual that survives the vulnerable infant stage. In other words, this report answers the question, 'how long is this species expected to live once it has reached its first birthday?' For this studbook, 40 individuals died before their first birthday and were excluded from these analyses. For all animals that survive to their first birthday, 50% will die before the median life expectancy in this report and 50% die after. Note that the median life expectancy obtained from population management software (PM2000, PMx, ZooRisk) or from life tables in Breeding and Transfer Plans (e.g. where Lx = 0.5) will be lower because it includes these individuals that did not survive to their first birthday in order to project the correct number of births needed. See the PopLink manual for more details. 2 For reference, first-year survival is provided. For this studbook and the selected demographic window, 40 individuals did not survive to their first birthday and were excluded from the estimates provided above (median life expectancy, 95% confidence limits, and age to which 25% of individuals survive). 3 Maximum longevity is the age of the oldest known individual for this species, living or dead. It is not necessarily the biological maximum age, but only reflects the individuals included in the dataset. 4 Information on the oldest females in the population can be found by running the PopLink Age Outliers Report. Censored individuals are individuals whose deaths have not been observed as of the end of the analysis window, including individuals who 1) are still alive as of the end date, 2) exited the geographic window before the end date (through transfer or release), or 3) were lost-to-follow up before the end date. 5 Median life expectancy for people is estimated from: Xu, Jiaquan, Kochanek KD, Murphy SL, and Tejada-Vera B Deaths: Final Data for National vital statistics reports; vol 58 no 19. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. Jeanne Calment of France was the oldest documented and fully validated human and died at 122 years and 164 days; from: Accessed August 9,

22 Appendix G Definitions Management Terms (as of June 2015) Green Species Survival Plan (Green SSP) Program A Green SSP Program has a population size of 50 or more animals and is projected to retain 90% gene diversity for a minimum of 100 years or 10 generations. Green SSP Programs are subject to AZA s Full Participation and Non Member Participation Policies. Yellow Species Survival Plan (Yellow SSP) Program A Yellow SSP Program has a population size of 50 or more animals but cannot retain 90% gene diversity for 100 years or 10 generations. Yellow SSP participation by AZA institutions is voluntary. Red Species Survival Plan (Red SSP) Program A Red SSP has a population size of greater than 20 but fewer than 50 animals, at least three AZA member institutions, and a published studbook. Animal Programs that manage species designated as Extinct in the Wild, Critically Endangered, or Endangered (IUCN) do not need to meet minimum population size and number of participating institution criteria to be designated as an SSP Program. Red Program participation by AZA institutions is voluntary. Full Participation AZA policy stating that all AZA accredited institutions and certified related facilities having a Green SSP animal in their collection are required to participate in the collaborative SSP planning process (e.g., provide relevant animal data to the AZA Studbook Keeper, assign an Institutional Representative who will communicate institutional wants and needs to the SSP Coordinator and comment on the draft plan during the 30-day review period, and abide by the recommendations agreed upon in the final plan). All AZA member institutions and Animal Programs, regardless of management designation, must adhere to the AZA Policy on Acquisitions, Transfers, and Transitions and the AZA Code of Professional Ethics. For more information on AZA policies, see Demographic Terms Age Distribution A two-way classification showing the numbers or percentages of individuals in various age and sex classes. Ex, Life Expectancy Average years of further life for an animal in age class x. Lambda ( ) or Population Growth Rate The proportional change in population size from one year to the next. Lambda can be based on lifetable calculations (the expected lambda) or from observed changes in population size from year to year. A lambda of 1.11 means an 11% per year increase; lambda of 0.97 means a 3% decline in size per year. lx, Age-Specific Survivorship The probability that a new individual (e.g., age 0) is alive at the beginning of age x. Alternatively, the proportion of individuals which survive from birth to the beginning of a specific age class. Mean Generation Time (T) The average time elapsing from reproduction in one generation to the time the next generation reproduces. Also, the average age at which a female (or male) produces offspring. It is not the age of first reproduction. Males and females often have different generation times. Mx, Fecundity The average number of same-sexed young born to animals in that age class. Because studbooks typically have relatively small sample sizes, studbook software calculate Mx as 1/2 the average number of young born to animals in that age class. This provides a somewhat less "noisy" estimate of Mx, though it does not allow for unusual sex ratios. The fecundity rates provide information on the age of first, last, and maximum reproduction. Px, Age-Specific Survival The probability that an individual of age x survives one time period; is conditional on an individual being alive at the beginning of the time period. Alternatively, the proportion of individuals which survive from the beginning of one age class to the next. Qx, Mortality Probability that an individual of age x dies during time period. Qx = 1-Px. Alternatively, the proportion of individuals that die during an age class. It is calculated from the number of animals that die during an age class divided by the number of animals that were alive at the beginning of the age class (i.e.-"at risk"). Risk (Qx or Mx) The number of individuals that have lived during an age class. The number at risk is used to calculate Mx and Qx by dividing the number of births and deaths that occurred during an age class by the number of animals at risk of dying and reproducing during that age class. Vx, Reproductive Value The expected number of offspring produced this year and in future years by an animal of age x. 21