Preliminary statistical analysis of. the international eventing. results 2014

Transcription

1 Madrid 23/1/15 Preliminary statistical analysis of the international eventing results 2014

2 Overview of the talk Statistical analysis The analysis and the data Analysis of the fall data (related to a fence) Analysis of results data

3 1. The questions addressed in this analysis What are the factors that on their own and as a combination are correlated with good results, Refusals, EL, Horse Fall, Unseated Rider? Age of horse and rider, barely qualified, previous results, competing at international level since when, average number of successful / unsuccessful competitions per year at that level, number of competition as a combination, Are there parameters that significantly alter the probability of a fall? Homework: questions / interesting points raised during the seminar Possibility to distinguish XC profiles??

4 The major steps in a statistical analysis Define the interesting questions and factors, that might affect risk Query the FEI database and compose file with data Encode data for statistical analysis Perform the analysis Interpretation of the results

5 iuseppe s slide

6 2. The data file Excel file with data on each international starter rows and 650 columns Profile of rider: age # different horses # starts 1*, 2*, 3*, 4* # MER 1*, 2*, 3*, 4* Profile horse: age # different horses # starts 1*, 2*, 3*, 4* # MER 1*, 2*, 3*, 4* Profile of competition CCI or CIC Star-level SJ before XC Speed Distance Result Dressage: pen XC: pen, EL (R, Fall) RET,WD SJ: pen, EL, RET,WD Identifications, Date, Officials, Profile of fall 38 columns 977 rows Multidimensional highly correlated dataset PCA, FA Low dimensional uncorrelated dataset File: but focus on 2014

7 Fall analysis

8 Grouping of competitions CCIY1* CCIYH1* CCIJ1* CCIP1* CCI1* CICYH1* CICJ1* CIC1* CCIP2* CCIU252* CCIY2* CCI2* CICY2* CICYH2* CIC2* CCIO3*-NC CCIU253* CCI3* CCI4* CICO3*-NC CIC3* CIC4* Championship 1* Championship 2* WEG Asian Games-C1* CH-EU-P-C2* WEG-C C.Am+Caraib Games-CCI1* CH-EU-Y-CCI2* CH-Balkan-CCI1* CH-M-YH-CCI2* CH-EU-J-CCI1* CH-N.Am-Y-CCI2* CH-M-YH-CCI1* CH-S.Am-C2* CH-N.Am-J-CCI1*

9 Competition Format and Horse Falls # starters # competitions # XC-FH % XC-FH # XC-FR % XC-FR CCI1* CCI2* CCI3* CCI4* CIC1* CIC2* CIC3* ? CH1* CH2* WEG Normal competitions: - numbers of horse falls and unseated riders increase with star level; - approximately 3 times more unseated riders than horse falls Championships: - alarming number of falls in particular horse falls

10 Falls and type of fences In total 912 falls related to fences Unseated Riders: 685 (75%) Horse Falls: 227 (25%) C. square spread E. brush F. round No normalization by the number of times the type of fence is jumped!

11 Similar to 2013 In 2013 total 817 falls related to fences

12 Unseated Riders: 685 (75%) Horse Falls: 227 (25%) More (as compared with FR) horse fall on type C less on type E Significant difference between the distribution of Unseated riders and horse falls (chi-square p=0.014)

13 2013 Distribution Unseated riders and horse falls over the fence types Relative more Horse Falls than Unseated Riders on type C Relative more Unseated Riders than Horse Falls on type G (corner) and J(step) Not in 2014

14 Where does the fall occur: fence number? Horse falls At the end?! Unseated athlete NB: 44 of the 974 falls are not related to fences

15 Falls and ground conditions

16 Other fall characteristics: frequencies of individual parameters FALSE TRUE valid Combination Fence Type Option Frangible Portable Related to water Terrain Ground Line Off a Bend Air Jacket worn Air Jacket activated Frangible break 5 Horse fell or tread on Rider Accident Type Horse slipped? Wind Poor Visibility Horse refused? Horse hit Fence? Horse tipped portable? 4 Horse broke fence? Horse somersaulted? Inexperience Rider fatigue Horse out of control Horse too fast Horse too slow Light situation Horse impaired by health Horse fatigued Horse distracted

17 Four (to 5) possible classes of falls related to a fence Component Fall Fence Combination Fall Fence Portable Fall Fence Related to water Fall Fence Ground line Fall Fence Off a bend Did horse fall on or tread on athlete Did the horse slip Injury level Did horse refuse Did horse hit the fence Did horse break the fence Did horse somersault Inexperience Athlete impaired by fatigue Horse out of control Horse too fast Horse too slow Horse fatigued Horse distracted NB: falls not related to fence are not included in this analysis

18 Falls in relation to other results

19 70.0% Results in function of competition format 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% Downward trend compensated by Falls, WD and RET 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% CIC1* CIC2* CIC3* CCI1* CCI2* CCI3* CCI4* clear 66.3% 63.5% 59.2% 63.0% 58.8% 50.9% 40.5% % 10.9% 13.3% 11.3% 11.1% 13.2% 11.3% % 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 1.6% 1.9% 60.9% 1.2%.5% 1.0% 1.0%.5%.3% XC-R 4.4% 3.6% 2.3% 6.1% 4.7% 2.8% 2.3% XC-FR 3.2% 2.9% 3.7% 3.7% 4.2% 6.9% 9.7% XC-FH.7% 1.0% 1.6%.8% 1.7% 2.7% 6.5% XC-OT 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0%.9%.6% 1.3%

20 16.0% 14.0% RET 12.0% 10.0% FR 8.0% 6.0% WD RET FH WD 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% CIC1* CIC2* CIC3* CCI1* CCI2* CCI3* CCI4* XC-R XC-FR XC-FH XC-OT XC-EL XC-RET XC-WD

21 Results and TD TD s with more than 200 starters 80.0 # starters clear XC-R 5 XC-FR 6 XC-FH 7 XC-OT 8 XC-EL 9 XC-RET 10 XC-WD 11 XC-AH-DR 12 SJ-EL 19 SJ-RET 20 SJ-WD 21 SJ-WD 100

22 Falls and TD TD s with more than 200 starters # starters of 210 CCI4* XC-FR 6 XC-FH 7

23 Results and CD CD s with more than 300 starters 80.0 # starters clear XC-R XC-FR XC-FH XC-OT XC-EL XC-RET XC-WD XC-AH-DR SJ-EL SJ-RET SJ-WD rest

24 Falls and CD CD s with more than 300 starters # starters XC-FR XC-FH

25 Dressage/Show Jumping score Dressage penalties Result code, Starlevel Result code N Mean Std. Deviation clear XC-R XC-FR XC-FH XC-OT XC-RET XC-WD Total Show Jumpiing fence penalties ANOVA: the ResultCode has an influence Result code N Mean Std. Deviation clear XC-R XC-FR XC-FH XC-OT XC-RET XC-WD Total

26 Rider profile Result code 2 types of riders - 1 and 2* riders - 3 and 4* riders No clear clustering

27 Rider profile Horse Falls X-axis: 3 and 4* riders Y-axis: 1 and 2* riders

28 Horse profile Horse profile Result code 2 types of horses - 3 and 4* - older 1 and 2* No clear clustering

29 X-axis: 3 and 4* riders Y-axis: 1 and 2* riders Horse profile Horse profile Horse Faslls

30 ResultCode PC1rider PC2rider PC3rider PC1horse PC2horse PC3horse XC-clear Mean SE 2013: summary To do 2014 XC-20pen Mean SE No experienced 1 and 2* horses XC-40pen Mean SE XC-60pen Mean SE No 2 and 3* rider, Not many horses No experienced 1 and 2* horses XC-EL-R Mean SE No 2 and 3* rider, Not many horses No experienced 1 and 2* horses XC-EL-FR Mean SE No 1, 2 and 3* rider, Not many horses XC-EL-FH Mean SE XC-RET Mean SE XC-WD Mean SE No 1* rider Horse start in 2 and 3* 2and 3* rider with one horse Horse start in 2 and 3* Total Mean SE

31 2013 Age of Rider, Horse Result Code, Star-level Mean Starlevel Horse age at time of competition Athlete age at time of competition 1 9,67 28, ,37 31, ,64 34, ,62 36,52 Total 10,27 30,44 Mean ResultCode Horse age at time of competition Athlete age at time of competition XC-clear 10,19 30,48 XC-20pen 10,24 29,84 XC-40pen 10,36 29,92 XC-60pen 10,03 28,41 XC-EL-R 10,39 29,03 XC-EL-FR 10,60 29,33 XC-EL-FH 10,49 29,91 Age of horse and age of the athlete are significantly different in the different starlevels XC-EL-OT 10,64 33,04 XC-RET 10,66 32,15 XC-WD 10,62 32,91 Total 10,27 30,44 The mean age of the athletes is significantly different in the different results classes; not the age of the horse.

32 Gender analysis Significantly more women in CIC1* No difference in results

33 Gender analysis Males more competitive??

34 Acknowledgements FEI-eventing department: Giuseppe, Catrin, Nathalie FEI-IT department: Jérôme Begey