Horn of Contention
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- Bertram Summers
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1 Horn of Contention
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7 United Nations Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species
8 Trade ban effect on rhinos Black rhino numbers in Africa: 1970: 65, : 15, : 2,500 Javan and Sumatran species critically endangered Four subspecies extinct since 1977 (western black, northern white, mainland Javan and northern Sumatran)
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10 Number of black rhinos in Africa ? C) Black rhino (all subspecies) Legal Asian markets closed CITES Ban Year
11 Number of northern white rhinos in Africa B) Northern white rhino 15000? CITES Ban rhinos 30 rhinos Extinct Year
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13 Number of southern white rhinos in Africa A) Southern white rhino Market Reforms Natal Parks Board successful breeding program CITES Year
14 Trade ban effect on rhino horn prices (wholesale prices of African horn) Year Price (US$/kg) (East Asia) (East Asia) 1,159 (Yemen) 3,075 (Taiwan) ,000+ (Vietnam)
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16 Pseudo hunting TOPS Moratorium
17 The market for white rhinos Year Live price (R) Trophy price ,100 6, ,000 21, ,500 80, , , , , , , , ,000
18 Maybe dehorned is better than dead!
19 Rhino farming?
20 Argument for legal trade With strong property rights, owners and custodians can benefit directly from sales, reinvesting into protection and breeding The combined gradual effect of increasing supply and added protection can displace illegal market activity by making it far less profitable
21 Counter-arguments Market expansion: may negate price effect Laundering: undermines displacement effort Intensification: animal welfare concerns, health concerns, product differentiation?
22 Mitigation Consumer engagement (demand management) Certification and tracking Free-range production, standards
23 Four common misconceptions 1. Illegal trade always causes illegal killing 2. Trade fuels demand 3. It is always cheaper to obtain from illegal sources because poaching costs are low 4. Wild products are always preferred over farmed
24 Illegal trade causes poaching There are instances where illegal trade of existing stocks may satisfy demand and prevent future price increases, thereby reducing illegal killing (e.g. ivory and rhino horn stockpiles)
25 Trade/supply fuels demand No! Illegal trade meets demand no willing buyer, no trade Alligator data no correlation Legal trade could affect demand either way, depending on which market effect is greater: expansion or substitution
26 Poaching always cheaper Not true for sales of existing stockpiles With farming, increasing returns to scale Poaching costs increase as animals become scarce or better protected Rhino poachers fees are high!
27 Wild preferred over farmed Simplistic, not always correct Quality and certification may favour farmed Spectrum: Bear bile Tiger/lion bone Rhino horn Tiger skins
28 Other issues Profit motive? Bogus medicine? Demand reduction / culture change? Research / adaptive management Precautionary principle Precedents?
29 When do bans work? Short term Larger, visible products Strong and widespread public support (especially from consumers and local people on supply side)
30 When do bans fail? Long term, if demand persists (black markets and corruption move in) Low public support and high transactions costs (= low political will) Highly inelastic supply and/or demand (Gary Becker)
31 Why do bans fail? No incentives for local people devalues the resource at source except for criminals Illegal products can confer status! You can t centrally control a fundamentally decentralized problem!
32 WAR!
33 Some numbers to consider Since 2007, some 2,760 rhinos have been poached in South Africa This represents roughly 11 tons of horn With a retail value of 400 million All of that money financed criminals!
34 Consider We had and still have more than 11 tons of rhino horn in stockpiles Private producers can produce at least 2 tons per year, sustainably (8 times per lifetime) Capturing just a portion of the 400 million would have made a massive difference to rhino protection and conservation efforts generally
35 Concluding comments Supply side: Livelihoods are critical, so give local people incentives! Demand side: Engage with consumers, don t preach to them! Trade: Learn lessons from the War on Drugs! Are bans a long-term solution?
36 Thank you!!
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CONCERNED that some rhinoceros populations have continued to decline drastically and that four of the five species are threatened with extinction;
Conf. 9.14 (Rev. CoP17) * Conservation of and trade in African and Asian rhinoceroses CONCERNED that some rhinoceros populations have continued to decline drastically and that four of the five species