Groundfish Operational Assessments 2017 Overview

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1 Groundfish Operational Assessments 2017 Overview Northeast Fisheries Science Center

2 Summary Presentation Operational Assessment Process Among Stock Comparison and Overview (Big Picture; Executive Summary) Assessment and Management History U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 2

3 Operational Assessment Timeline We are here N R C C Expert Review of Catchability Study July 18 Assessment Oversight Panel meeting July 24, Industry Outreach meetings August- Sep. Conduct Assessments August- Sep. Peer Review Meeting Sep Final report to the NEFMC: PDT SSC October 2017 NEFMC FW 57 Dec. 5-7 Species Stock U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 3

4 Peer Review Assessment Peer Review Panel Patrick Sullivan (Co-Chair) Cornell University Patrick Lynch (Co-Chair) NOAA Science & Technology Gary Nelson - MADMF Jim Berkson - NOAA-Sea Grant Other Key Participants Assessment Oversight Panel: J McNamee, J Boreman, R Brown Catchability Peer Review Panel: S Cadrin, M Dean, G DeCelles, J Gartland SAW/SARC Chair James Weinberg (NEFSC) Stock Assessment Leads (NEFSC) Jamie Cournane NEFMC (at review table) Large audience in Woods Hole and on Webinar 4

5 Generic TORs - few changes allowed Update the data Run the models to estimate stock size and fishing mortality Update the values of Biological Reference Points Evaluate Stock Status Estimate Overfishing Limit or other Catch Advice Sources of Uncertainty and Research Needs Plan B if model fails Consider catchability estimates, incorporate directly into relevant empirical assessments U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 5

6 Enhancements to Process Plan Bs, Catchability, and Ecosystem Context Alternative basis for catch advice developed in advance for all analytical assessments reviewed and approved by AOP Meeting started with presentation on ecosystem indices and trends applicable to the suite of stocks Panel considered this context and commented extensively on ecosystem-related research needs Flatfish day started with presentation on cooperative research on survey catchability Catchability estimates directly used in three empirical assessments (GOM winter, witch, GB yellowtail flounders) Catchability info provided for context/comparison/diagnostics for analytical assessments 6

7 Keeping up with a Changing Environment Stock assessment models incorporate the primary consequences of changes in the environment. Growth Maturity Recruitment Irrespective of the underlying cause, the updated information is immediately relevant to management. 7

8 8

9 Retro Rule Decisions to apply a retrospective adjustment to estimates of terminal year biomass and fishing mortality rates were based on whether the rho adjusted value was outside the 90% joint confidence region for the model estimates. 9

10 2017 Operational Review The Panel accepted all of the assessments as a scientific basis for management and provided catch advice for all 19 stocks. Recommended stock status did not change for 18 of the 19 stocks, and improved for 1 stock. 10

11 Recommended Status Score Card Overfished and Overfishing (4) GOM Cod Cape Cod/GOM Yellowtail Flounder GB Yellowtail Flounder* SNE Yellowtail Flounder Overfished but No Overfishing (4) SNE Winter Flounder Wolffish Northern Windowpane Ocean Pout Overfished and Overfishing Unknown (2) GB Cod Witch Flounder Not Overfished and Overfishing (0) Not Overfished and No Overfishing (8) GB Haddock GOM Haddock GB Winter Flounder (improved) Plaice Redfish White Hake Pollock Southern Windowpane Flounder Unknown and No Overfishing (1) GM Winter Flounder *GB Yellowtail Flounder was reviewed by the Transboundary Resources Assessment Committee, so the Operational Assessment Peer Review Panel did not comment on status. The indication here is based on prior status determination. U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 11

12 Data Portal Data Portal Output Search Criteria Assessment Year Species Stock Information Type operational-assessments-2017/ OUTPUTS Zip File=Everything Assessment Report Figures Tables Model info: inputs, outputs, diagnostics Maps Survey Maps Commercial Background Reports U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 12

13 Spawning Stock Biomass 13

14 14

15 2015 Operational Assessments 2017 Operational Assessments 15

16 Stock Assessment Models VPA Georges Bank haddock Plaice Georges Bank winter flounder Cape Cod-Gulf of Maine yellowtail flounder OTHER GB cod Ocean Pout Witch flounder N Windowpane S Windowpane GOM winter flounder Wolffish GB yellowtail flounder ASAP Gulf of Maine cod Gulf of Maine haddock Pollock Redfish White hake Southern New England- Mid Atlantic winter flounder Southern New England- Mid Atlantic yellowtail flounder 10/20/

17 F/F MSY 17

18 B/B MSY 18

19 19

20 NEFSC Spring Survey 20

21 NEFSC Fall Survey 21

22 The Good 2013 stood out as was a good year for producing strong recruitment year classes (other years, such as 2007 may also have been conducive to recruitment across stocks). Stocks with Strong 2013 YC GOM Haddock (huge yc) GB Haddock (huge yc) GB Cod (relative to recent years, cannot quantify) American Plaice (relative to recent years) Witch Flounder (cannot quantify) Pollock (huge yc) Redfish (relative to recent years) 22

23 The Bad The review panel observed situations where fisheries stocks seemed unable to respond positively to management restrictions on catch. Stocks not responding to low catches Ocean Pout Wolffish GB Yellowtail GOM Winter Flounder SNE Winter Flounder 23

24 And The Ugly with a Silver Lining Retros are still an issue Stocks with retro adjustments increased from 7 to 8 but six of those retros are improving (less bias and low adjustments). Stocks with retro adjustments GB Haddock White Hake GB Winter Flounder* SNE Yellowtail* CC/GOM Yellowtail* American Plaice* Pollock* Redfish* 24

25 Changes in rho relative to

26 Long Term Performance of Projections Projections used to set future catches and plan rebuilding strategies do not perform well (projected catch does not result in the desired fishing mortality, and stock growth does not occur as expected). In 2011 the NEFSC augmented the PDT to examine an alternative to using updated assessments for setting FY ABCs. Simulation analyses showed that projections tend to be biased high that is, they over-estimated stock growth and future catches. (Brooks and Legault 2015; Wiedenmann and Jensen 2017) 26

27 The SSC s default ABC control rule (see Amendment 16) 1. ABC should be determined as the catch associated with 75% of F MSY. 2. If fishing at 75% of F MSY does not achieve the mandated rebuilding requirements for overfished stocks, ABC should be determined as the catch associated with the fishing mortality that meets rebuilding requirements (F rebuild ). 3. For stocks that cannot rebuild to BMSY in the specified rebuilding period, even with no fishing, the ABC should be based on incidental bycatch, including a reduction in bycatch rate (i.e., the proportion of the stock caught as bycatch). 4. Interim ABCs should be determined for stocks with unknown status according to case- by case recommendations from the SSC 27

28 Control Rule Control Rule Stock Prior to 2015 After 2015 GB cod 75%Fmsy constant 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) GOM cod pseudo 75%Fmsy constant (3 projections) pseudo 75%Fmsy constant (3 projections) GB Haddock 75%Fmsy sensitivity projection 75%Fmsy constant GOM Haddock 75%Fmsy 75%Fmsy GB Yellowtail Flounder 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) constant catch (no projection, TRAC 2017) SNE Yellowtail Flounder long term 75%Fmsy constant averaging CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder 75%Fmsy constant 75%Fmsy constant Plaice 75%Fmsy 75%Fmsy Witch Flounder Frebuild constant constant ABC (no projection, SARC 62) GB Winter Flounder Frebuild 75%Fmsy constant GOM Winter Flounder 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) SNE/MA Winter Flounder long term 75%Fmsy constant, different recruitment 75%Fmsy constant Redfish 75%Fmsy 75%Fmsy White Hake 75%Fmsy 75%Fmsy Pollock 75%Fmsy constant 75%Fmsy constant Northern Windowpane Flounder 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) Southern Windowpane Flounder 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) Ocean Pout 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) Halibut Frebuild averaging Wolffish 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) 75%Fmsy or Frebuild %Fmsy or Frebuild and held constant %Fmsy and held constant, no projection 6 7 other 2 3 Note that no Frebuild ABCs were used in /20/

29 Groundfish Stock Contol Rule After 2015 Overfishing in 2016 Comments Projected catch higher than 2018 ABCs? Pojected catch higher than recent catch? Biomass and Rebuilding Comments GB cod 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) unk empirical yes yes Relatively low biomass GOM cod pseudo 75%Fmsy constant (3 projections) yes F has declined yes yes Low recent recruitment, cannot rebuild GB Haddock sensitivity projection 75%Fmsy constant no not constraining stable yes Rebuilt GOM Haddock 75%Fmsy no confirmed strong 2013 year class yes yes Rebuilt GB Yellowtail Flounder constant catch (no projection, TRAC 2017) unk empirical stable yes Near record lows SNE Yellowtail Flounder averaging yes high F no no CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder 75%Fmsy constant yes Plaice 75%Fmsy no constant seemed to work low projected biomass increase Witch Flounder constant ABC (no projection, SARC 62) unk empirical yes yes GB Winter Flounder 75%Fmsy constant no constant seemed to work GOM Winter Flounder 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) no empirical no yes SNE/MA Winter Flounder 75%Fmsy constant no constant seemed to work 8% SSB MSY, need a rebuilding plan yes yes on schedule to rebuild yes yes yes yes yes yes assessments shows rebuilding biomass unquantifiable 2013 year class, need a rebuilding Didn't rebuild, need a rebuilding plan Little response to low catch and F Biomass is declining, cannot rebuild Redfish 75%Fmsy no not constraining stable yes Rebuilt White Hake 75%Fmsy no not constraining no yes Rebuilding biomass but didn't rebuild, need a Pollock 75%Fmsy constant no not constraining yes yes Rebuilt Northern Windowpane Flounder 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) no index assessment no yes Didn't rebuild, need a rebuilding plan Southern Windowpane Flounder 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) no index assessment no no Rebuilt Ocean Pout 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) no index assessment no yes Halibut averaging unk NA NA NA Wolffish 75%Fmsy constant (no projection) no Data poor, SCALE yes yes Little response to low catch and F, need a NA Little response to low catch and F 29

30 T =TRAC Assessment Terminal Year B = benchmark GARM3 op-2012 op-2015 op-2017 op-2019 O = Operational assessment effort effort effort ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC Stock GB cod B O B O O O GOM cod B B B O O O O GB Haddock B O O O O GOM Haddock B O B O O O GB Yellowtail Flounder B T T T T T B T T T T O SNE Yellowtail Flounder B B O O O CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder B O O O O Plaice B O O O O Witch Flounder B O O B O O GB Winter Flounder B B O O O O GOM Winter Flounder B B O O O O SNE/MA Winter Flounder B B O O O Redfish B O O O O White Hake B B O O O Pollock B B O O O O Northern Windowpane Flounder B O O O O Southern Windowpane Flounder B O O O O Ocean Pout B O O O O Halibut B O O O Wolffish B O O O O overfishing not overfishing unknown (cannot quantify) GARM 3 projection (2 year catch assumpion) to estimate ABCs stock op-2012 (2 year catch assumpion) to estimate ABCs

31 Groundfish Rebuilding Schedules stock Rebuild End date GB cod 2026 no projection Rebuilt Stocks GOM cod GB Haddock rebuilt GOM Haddock rebuilt Overfished Stocks GB Yellowtail Flounder 2032 no projection 1 on schedule (not bound by Frebuild) SNE Yellowtail Flounder NA 1 Frebuild lower than 75%Fmsy CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder overfished and difficult to rebuild Plaice 2024 (Doesn't rebuild with F=0 or no projection) Witch Flounder 2017 no projection 6 Overfished and did not rebuild, need a new plan GB Winter Flounder 2017 GOM Winter Flounder NA no projection Unknow Biomass Status Stocks SNE/MA Winter Flounder Redfish rebuilt White Hake 2014 Pollock rebuilt Northern Windowpane Flounder 2017 no projection Southern Windowpane Flounder rebuilt Ocean Pout 2014 no projection Halibut 2056 no projection Wolffish undefined no projection 31

32 2017 Edits on 2015 General Big Picture Concerns Diagnostic retrospective issues are not improving. (Yes, more adjustments but perhaps a slight improvement with lower adjustments?) Less acceptable analytical assessments will results in higher uncertainty with regards to understanding stock dynamics over time. Status cannot be quantified. (Continues to be a concern) There is no evidence for increases in biomass for several stocks that have relatively low recent catch and exploitation rates (Ocean Pout, Wolffish, GOM & SNE Winter Flounder, GB Yellowtail). (Continues to be a concern) ABCs set since 2010 have not consistently ended overfishing or promoted rebuilding for many groundfish stocks (flatfish and cod). Greater divergence in stock status among stocks is producing greater challenges for groundfish management. (Yes but perhaps improving?) 32

33 Big Picture Questions? 33

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