X X. The 50+ Year Genesis of the Woodland Caribou Knowledge and Management File

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1 The 50+ Year Genesis of the Woodland Caribou Knowledge and Management File Everything in this storyline is supported by published references R.R. Stewart s + NL Biologist (T. Bergerud) publishes PhD Thesis on caribou pop. dynamics in NL discounts bears as a predator despite high calf mortality- lynx targeted Kemp- high densities of bears documented west central Alberta- Kemp, Fuller, Keith 1974 Bergerud, A.T The decline of caribou in North America following settlement J. of Wildl. Manage. Introduces wolf as primary predator Holling introduces mathematical theory of apparent competition 1980 s Research in Alaska (Franzmann, Schwartz, Ballard) Saskatchewan (Stewart) & Alberta (Nolan and Barrett) in early 1980 s point finger as black bears as dominant predators of moose calves Mountain and Boreal Woodland Caribou become species of concern in several provinces resulting in curtailment of sport hunting western Canada and elevation to a threatened species designations 1990 NL biologist Mahoney reports black bears the primary predator of caribou calves 1986, 1987 Bergerud senior author on population dynamics and spacing out wolf avoidance strategies of BC mountain woodland caribou, and idea of apparent competition resulting in high caribou calf mortality from wolves. Successful wolf culling results in positive population response Caribou populations in Alberta continue to decline in wake if increased oil and gas exploration and development and other major research undertaken (Latham, McLoughlin) on the wolf/caribou relationship. Latham shows increased numbers of deer, coyotes, and wolves in peatland areas and increases in non-snow period predation of caribou by wolves Numerous research studies initiated in BC and Alberta ranges focus on role or wolves as the dominant predator of woodland caribou 2005 Government sponsored wolf culls initiated in the Little Smokey Range in Alberta as a short-term mechanism to reduce effects of wolf predation on caribou James undertakes PhD thesis seating the idea that a relationship exists between industrial habitat development effecting increases in moose and then wolf populations leading to higher rates of incidental caribou depredation from wolves, and the belief that caribou were at risk of extirpation on several ranges- He saw this as apparent competition A 10 year long wolf culling (poisoning program fails to promote a significant positive growth response in one woodland caribou population in western Alberta (Hervieux et. al 2014) Researchers in Quebec (Dussault, Brodeur, Pinard) and NL demonstrate black bears as primary predator of caribou calves in those jurisdictions. NL unsuccessfully experiments with diversionary feeding of bears ?? Alberta Government institutionalizes and expands wolf culling to include an adjacent mountain caribou range Latham, D. implicates black bears as potential predators of boreal caribou calves in the Cold Lake Area of Alberta Latham updates knowledge respecting deer, wolf, and coyote population shifts and use of peatlands in WSAR and speculates on potential of bears as a primary predator of caribou calves And The Progressive Appreciation of the Challenge & Complexity of Management Solutions Latham PhD thesis compares James era data and concludes evidence is overwhelming that apparent competition mediated trough wolves driven by high deer populations explains caribou decline and recommends wolf control

2 Dr. A.T. Bergerud 1950s s 1970 s-80 s Bergerud & Elliot 1986 More Prey =More Wolves = Less Caribou Post Little Ice Age Expansion Moose Early 1900 s + Logging Shifted Forest Landscapes Bergerud & Elliot s Wolves Implicated as the Cause of Population Declines 1950 s -60 s Concluded Lynx as Primary Predator- bears rejected as no bear kills observed, no wolves in NL The Bergerud Effect 1950 s s Caribou Spacing From Moose and Wolves 2000 s Woodland caribou persistence and extirpation in relic populations on Lake Superior 2000 s From The Caribou Conservation Conundrum 2007 My 1974 paper is now generally quoted by young caribou biologists as showing that the proximate cause for the decline of caribou is wolf predation with the implied implication that the real reason is anthropogenic factors such as logging that have upset the balance of nature. Many older wolf biologists still believe in the balance of nature concept and helped indoctrinate the general public to that view and still do not support management intrusion into natural systems. Caribou have persisted since the ice age in a simple one prey- one primary predator system; to continue to persist with climate change and increased species diversity wolves and or the alternate prey species (moose and deer) will have to be managed.

3 35% 30% 32% 32% DeMars, C. et. al., 2011, Predation Risk on Boreal Caribou Calves. PTAC Annual Report 40% % 25% 20% 15% WSAR Population Simulation Starting Population 400 Pregnant Cows 236 Calves Born 212 Calves Dead July (65%) Calves Dead Apr (76%) 20% 10% April N.E. BC 2 4 May1-7 May 8-15 May % calved 4 May May 31 - June 5 June % 5% 1% 0% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% J F M A M J J A S O N D Annual Adult Mortality (McLoughlin 2003) Annual Mortality Calves (Stuart-Smith 1997)

4 KNOWLEDGE ABOUT WOLVES, MOOSE AND CARIBOU AND THE EMERGENCE OF THE THEORY APPARENT COMPETITION IN ALBERTA ELECTIVITY FOR SELECTION OF UPLAND HABITAT TYPES we believe the magnitude of the difference (proportion of caribou in diet) and the consistent results were strong evidence that caribou were not killed in proportion to their availability in the study area Moose Wolf Packs Wolves Caribou Fall Spring Winter Relating predation mortality to broad-scale habitat selection McLoughlin/Dunford/Boutin. results strongly suggest that uplands (primarily mixed deciduous and coniferous forest) present caribou with higher than expected levels of predation risk, and that caribou can avoid predation by maximizing selection of peatlands (open, conifer- dominated bogs and fens) Our data do not allow us to conclude with certainty that caribou having resource selection functions that favour peatlands experience higher fitnessthan caribou that use more edge or uplands PREDATION RATES AS A FUNCTION OF CARIBOU HABITAT SELECTION Predation Selection James 1999 PhD. Effects of Industrial Development on the Predator-Prey Relationship Between Wolves & Caribou in NE Alberta Edge Upland Peatland Historically, caribou in northeastern Alberta must have survived localized increases in moose densities after wildfires. However, current conditions may not provide caribou with the options they once had. It is possible that fen/bog complexes previously provided a more complete refuge for caribou, and that recently the many new linear corridors created during oil and gas exploration, production and distribution have eroded the effectiveness of these refuges. Wolves in northeastern Alberta use linear corridors more than expected by chance, while caribou avoid them and linear corridors may allow wolves to travel more quickly and further into caribou range. Oil and gas, heavy oil, and peat extraction activities may also reduce the options available to caribou for movements within patches. In addition, timber harvesting may result in a more widespread increase in moose than wildfires because of the dispersed nature of current two-pass harvesting designs. The juxtaposition of forage and cover in logged areas, a characteristic often cited as important for creating good moose habitat (reviewed by Thompson and Stewart 1997), may be higher than occurred following large fires. Therefore, caribou may be less able to endure increases in moose and wolf populations in the existing landscape in northeastern Alberta.

5 Caribou Mountains Bistcho Yates LAMBDA VALUES West Side Athabasca River Cold Lake Combined East Side Athabasca River Red Earth Little Smokey Red Rock-Prairie Creek A la Peche Narraway Jasper

6 BUT THE SHIFTING LANDSCAPE OF NORTHERN ALBERTA INTRODUCES NEW THREATS TO WOODLAND CARIBOU Invading white-tailed deer change wolf-caribou dynamics in northeastern alberta (WSAR) A. David M. Latham, M. Cecilia Latham, Nicole A. McCutchen, and Stan Boutin. Observed Changes compared to fold increase in deer observed population (37.5% gain/yr) Stable moose population Increasing overlap between wolf and caribou ranges Wolf prey switch from moose to deer 10 fold increase in caribou in the diet of wolves** Caribou populations trended from stable to declines Wolf use of beavers increased Concluded the caribou decline was due to apparent competition mediated through an increase in deer and wolf populations Observed Changes compared to % increase in wolf population density in *** compared to Recommended primary prey and wolf reduction programs as a caribou conservation measure Spatial relationships of sympatric wolves and coyotes with woodland caribou during the calving season in a human-modified boreal landscape A. David M. Latham, M. Cecilia Latham, Mark S. Boyce and Stan Boutin. Wolves generally avoided caribou-preferred habitats, particularly bogs. Most coyotes selected bogs and/or fens; however, relative to caribou, they were found closer to upland forests. Caribou hair uncommon in scats of wolves and coyotes >25% of wolf packs and most coyotes selected caribou-preferred habitats during the calving season, but limited secondary predation, by these predators and black bears on adult and calf caribou is likely to be contributing to caribou population declines. We caution that predation on caribou is likely to escalate as coyotes expand into this region and increasing human disturbance continues to create habitat for whitetailed deer which is an important prey for both wolves and coyotes. Black bears have been shown to be an important mortality factor for moose calves in our study area (Nolan and Barrett 1985) and it is possible that, as in eastern Canada (Pinard et al. 2012), bears are depredating a greater proportion of caribou calves than are wolves or coyotes. Note: Authors Opinion. Dr. Latham has published the most compelling and contemporary work on woodland caribou and it s relationship with predators in Alberta. He reports a rapidly changing wildlife complex associated with the WSAR peatlands whereby increasing deer and coyote populations introduce permanent new landscape residents and real ecological threat to caribou. His observations that increases in wolf populations and their use of industrial corridors that penetrate such complexes precipitate opportunities for more wolf encounters with caribou, thereby increasing risk to predation. His work on this and seasonal prey switching, corridor impacts, and unappreciated role of black bears as the potential primary predator of caribou calves leads the research community.

7 Changing Food Consumption Wolves WSAR Estimate of Caribou WSAR approx. 400 animals Given the shift from 0.5% to 5% representation of caribou in the diet of wolves, and the doubling of the wolf population, wolves would consume 126 caribou/year out of a population of 400 animals. Just how long would there be any caribou left at this rate of predation that is not supported by population data?? Latham Estimate 241 wolves Wolf Diet 5% Caribou The conclusions drawn in Alberta relied upon this change in diet based on scat samples that were collected using different methodologies of collection between the mid-1990 s and mid s. Give your head a shake and ask what is going on here! 126 wolves Fuller & Kieth Estimate Wolf Diet 0.5% Caribou James estimate 5 Latham Estimate Latham estimate 126 Adapted from data provided in Invading white-tailed deer change wolfcaribou dynamics in northeastern alberta (WSAR) A. David M. Latham, M. Cecilia Latham, Nicole A. McCutchen, and Stan Boutin.

8 Ecosystems are not only more complex than we think- they are more complex than we can think- (Egler 1977) The Case of the Little Smokey Wolf Cull Problem 1 The biologists researching and managing woodland caribou prescribed and implemented a wolf control program for the highly fragmented 3,000 km 2 Little Smokey Range. The hypothesis was simple: since it was believed caribou populations were controlled by wolves, the removal of wolves would result in an increase in the survival of both calves and adult caribou. The LS population had dropped from 120 to 80 between 2000 and 2005, a decline attributed to wolf predation. Ten years of extensive wolf control on a 10,000 km 2 core and buffer zone beginning in 2005 has failed to elicit a statistically significant increase in the caribou??? population, contrary to the expectation and the caribou population has stabilized around 80 animals. Since 2010 biologists combined prey reduction of moose and elk and used the carcasses as strychnine baits for poisoning, thereby reducing the attraction for wolves, and providing an effective mechanism for wolf reduction. Over the ten years approximately 1000 wolves, 177 moose, 16 elk and 3 deer have been killed by this program. Unfortunately, the combination of lower populations of ungulates and wolf removal have failed to effect a positive population response. Problem 2 Recruitment rates have remained low suggesting that neonatal mortality has remained high, despite the fact the resident wolf population was believed to have been completely removed each year. Given that the wolf control program terminated each year (March/April) just prior to the onset of calving. It does not appear probable that wolves recolonized through the buffer zone, and set up shop en masse in the peatlands, and then resumed killing caribou adults and calves within 30 days. Management Response 1 The LS wolf/prey cull is being expanded to an adjacent mountain woodland caribou range. Biologists foresee an indefinite and expanding wolf cull and primary prey control program as the best means to protect free ranging caribou populations, at least until some point in the distant future that habitat restoration programs begin to have a positive effect and forest succession will correct the imbalances in the system- like decades into the future! Management Response 2 Some biologists even suggest that the only mechanism to protect caribou is to construct predator exclusion fences around caribou ranges(in process), thereby introducing massive shifts in the ecological relationships that take us well beyond where we can even begin think.

9 50 Year Simulation Population Status with Wolf Culling

10 WE KNOW THAT Removing Wolves As A Predator And Simultaneously Reducing The Prey Base Within The Little Smokey Caribou Range For Over Ten Years Failed To Significantly Improve Recruitment And Population Recovery As Predicted & Given that caribou cows held in a number of maternity enclosures resulted in 100% calf survival to 3-4 months of age The High Postnatal Mortality Rates Are Likely Due To Continued Losses To Predators At Least In Some Ranges WE DO NOT KNOW THAT the overwhelming evidence supports the interpretation that anthropogenically induced apparent competition, mediated by wolves and broad-scale habitat fragmentation and loss, is driving caribou declines and that the slow process of recovery for Alberta s caribou populations is dependent upon immediate recovery planning and actions (Hervieux et al. 2013, p. 880) APPLIES TO ONE RANGE LET ALONE ALL CARIBOU RANGES IN ALBERTA As professional biologists we must be diligent, thorough, and not too quick to convert ideas and theory to fact, because frankly the consequences of error can be expensive and drastic

11 So what should we have learned in 25 years? POLITICAL LEADERSHIP Identify & Research Critical Gaps Refine Delivery Industry First Nations LOW RECRUITMENT if not wolves then others Alberta Environment Residents How to Reduce Predation on Calves Raise Funding Removing Wolves As A Predator And Simultaneously Reducing The Prey Base Within The Little Smokey Caribou Range For Over Ten Years Failed To Significantly Improve Recruitment And Population Recovery As Predicted & Given that caribou cows held in maternity enclosures resulted in 100% calf survival to 3-4 months of age Evaluate Performance Citizenry Monitor Calf Survival Alberta Energy Implement Field Trials The High Postnatal Mortality Rates Are Likely Due To Continued Losses To Predators At Least In Some Ranges that biologists must use and enforce discipline in ARM approaches

12 Bergerud 1986* Wolverine primary Predator of caribou calves in multi-predator system Gustine 2006 Tagged bears in calving complexes and an adult caribou bear kill Culling 2000/04 High moose calf mortality due to bears in Alaska Schwartz, Franzmann, Ballard 1980 s Bear predation Moose calves Nolan & Barrett /3 upland Tagged bears Access bogs during Caribou calving Latham 2011 High bear Populations 40-80/100 km 2 Cold lake area Bear culling study Kemp, Young, Ruff Bear culling Doubles recruitment rates in moose Stewart 1983/84 Bears observed in bogs during caribou calving Schindler 2012/13 Dussault/ Pinard/ Bastille/Cote/ Beauchesne/Leclerc/ & Others 95% calf predator mortality due to bears Bears Primary Predator Coyotes Increasingly Important Mahoney & Others Dozens of References from US Researchers Involving Bear depredation of moose, elk, deer calves and fawns BACK TO THE LITERATURE RESPECTING PREDATION OF UNGULATE CALVES IN THE BOREAL FOREST

13 Home Ranges of Two Boreal Caribou Populations WHAT THE BEST SCIENCE TELLS US ABOUT BOREAL BLACK BEARS IN ALBERTA WSAR ESAR ATHABASCA LANDSCAPE TEAM 2008No Data- Unsupported ASRD ReferenceUpland Population Estimate 10-12/ 100km 2 Bogs 1/3 * 12 Bears/100km 2 4 Bears/100km 2 G.A. KEMP 1976 Cold Lake Field Study 3rd Int. Conf. Bear Res. and Manage. Upland Population Estimate Bears/100km 2 Bogs 1/3 * 40 Bears/100km 2 Bogs 1/3 * 40 Bears/100km 2 13 Bears/100km 2 26 Bears/100km 2 B.F. YOUNG AND R.L. RUFF Cold Lake Field Study 1982 J. Wild. Manage. 46: Bog Population Estimate 18 Bears/100km Annual Winter Summer Home Range Size (Km2) A VISUAL APPRECIATION OF THE REALITY Black Bears Caribou Cow/Calf Units Gray Wolves Cows with Calves May/June -65% Cows with Calves July 1 Cows without Calves July/Aug Adult Mortality East Side Athabasca River Simulation LATHAM, A.D.M ET. AL HABITAT SELECTION AND SPATIAL RELATIONSHIPS OF BLACK BEARS (URSUS AMERICANUS) WITH WOODLAND CARIBOU (RANGIFER TARANDUS CARIBOU) IN NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ZOOLOGY 89: Declines in caribou populations in Alberta have resulted from a combination of high adult female and calf mortalities, and subsequent low recruitment. Based on our results, we speculate that approximately ONE- THIRD OF BLACK BEARS IN NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH MORTALITY OF CARIBOU CALVES. Consequently, management actions to conserve woodland caribou must consider the entire suite of potential predators rather than focusing solely on wolf control.

14 57 caribou, 33 wolves, 9 bears collared + Caribou Calving Site Wolf Packs Ranges ( ,000 km Movement Individual Bears Caribou Locations 71+ Wolves 0.61/100 km2 Number of Animals Density/100 km2 200 Bears 200 Wolves 1.6 Bears & 1.6 Wolves 700 Bears 200 Wolves 5.8 Bears & 1.6 Wolves 1200 Bears 200 Wolves 10 Bears & 1.6 Wolves from Culling et. al. Ecology And Seasonal Habitat Selection Of Boreal Caribou In The Snake-Sahtaneh Watershed, British Columbia 2000 To 2004 Caribou calf mortality is generally highest in the first month following birth (Bergerud et al. 1984, Bergerud and Elliott 1986, Stuart-Smith et al. 1997, Dzus 2001). Adult survival is typically high; Dzus (2001) notes adult survival from a series of northern Alberta studies ranged from 74% to 100%, comparable to reports from other geographic areas of Canada. Wolf (Canis lupus) predation is considered the major cause of caribou mortality, with black bears (Ursus americanus), grizzly bears (U. arctos), lynx (Lynx canadensis), wolverine (Gulo gulo), coyote (C. latrans), and golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) contributing variable predation pressure across the geographic range (Thomas 1995, Bergerud and Elliott 1998, Edmonds 1998, Rettie and Messier 1998, Spalding 2000, Dzus 2001, Gustine 2005). Boreal caribou employ a strategy of dispersing at very low densities, referred to as spacing out, to reduce predation during the calving period (Bergerud 1996).

15 LIVING A SUSTAINABLE LIFE IN A BOG IS NOT EVERYONE S CUP OF TEA FACT IS SOME OF US JUST ARE NOT BUILT REAL WELL FOR THAT BUT A ROAD HELPS kg kg kg kg kg kg kg Winter is long, spring is very wet, not a lot to eat, and the bugs will drive you crazy!!

16 FORAGING THEORY- A POSSIBLE INSIGHT INTO THE BLACK BEAR/BOREAL WOODLAND CARIBOU DYNAMIC BEARS AND BOREAL WOODLAND CARIBOU SHARE SOMETHING THAT WOLVES DO NOT- PATCH VEGETATION FEEDERS WITH AN APPRECIATION OF AN EARLY SPRING SALAD FIRST SERVED AT THE LOCAL WETLAND RESTAURANT WITH A LITTLE GOOD INFORMATION THE PROBABILTIES ARE CALCULABLE

17 MAKING MORE WOODLAND CARIBOU A Suite of Minimally Invasive Approaches to Mitigation for the Sustainable Management of Boreal Woodland Caribou Populations

18 The presentation included a section on aversive conditioning deterrents that we evaluated in Unfortunately as some of this work represents intellectual property which is currently in process of a patent application, and for which I have an associate, I am advised not to present this work in a public forum. However I am posting some links to a number of online sites where you can at least appreciate the participation of bears in the depredation of neonate ungulate calves. Enjoy. And if you have any questions do not hesitate to me at bob@teams-ltd.com and I will do my best to respond