Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team (C-SMART)

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1 Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team (C-SMART) Photo Credit : Lighthawk Aerial Community Development Agency 3501 Civic Center Drive, Rm. 308 San Rafael, CA T California Shore and Beach Preservation Association 4/16/18

2 Sea Level Rise Adaptation Process Evaluate Science Info. Implement & Monitor Identify Assets Plan Action Assess Vulnerability Evaluate Adaptations

3 Identifying Future Risk with CoSMoS 1. Global forcing using the latest climate models 2. Drives global and regional wave models 3. Scaled down to local hazards projections

4 State of California Official Guidance

5 EXPOSURE SLR VS. ANNUAL STORM

6 40 different SLR scenarios No storm Annual storm 20-year storm 100-year storm 0cm SLR 25cm SLR 50cm SLR 75cm SLR * * * 100cm SLR 125cm SLR * 150cm SLR 175cm SLR 200cm SLR *

7 ASSET MAPPING & INVENTORYING I & M Plan Science Assets Vulnerabl. Mapping people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources; infrastructure; and economic, social, & cultural assets Evaluate Agricultural land Protected areas Public beaches and parks Dunes River & streams Wetland areas Habitat areas Oyster beds Sandspits Shorebirds Roads and transportation Trails Buildings Residential development Commercial buildings Schools Elderly/mobility limited facilities Hotels/Motels Harbors and marinas Fishing, aquaculture facilities Utilities & services Septic leach fields Water Supply wells Archeological/ Paleontological sites Historic sites

8 The Vulnerability Assessment Tool

9 Asset Mapping In Action

10 Public Workshops! Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team February Slide 10

11

12 Key Findings 4,700 acres exposed at mean higher high water Mean higher high water: The average high tide, thus some sites could be dry during lower tides. Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 12

13 Key Findings 1,100 buildings 1,300 parcels 22% of residential, 33% of commercial Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 13

14 Key Findings $300 million in assessed value, market value is higher $7 million in property tax $700,000 in Transient Occupancy Tax Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 14

15 Key Findings Beaches could flood and erode Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 15

16 Marshes could convert to mud flats or move upland Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 16

17 Key Findings Marshes could convert to mud flats, and may move upland Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 17

18 a dapt ive man age ment /əˈdaptiv/ man-ij-muh nt (Noun) An iterative method of decision making in the face of uncertainty that reduces uncertainty by continuous monitoring; used especially in the management of ecosystems etc.

19 Adaptation Report Informational document compiling adaptation options proposed to date Next steps to carry forward potential options Non-regulatory, not-a-plan Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team February Slide 19

20 Geomorphic Change

21 Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team February Slide 21

22 Combined Riverine and SLR Flooding

23 Shrinking Shores 6/9/18

24 Stinson Beach Strategies Raise Homes (89 structures in V Zone ) = $29 M o Norishment would also be required for beach to maintain ecological/recreation function at 2060/2090 = $22 M total Beach and Dune Nourishment = $44 M over long term Revetment Extension = $24 M (additional nourishment would be required) Cobble Berm = $55 M per mile Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team February Slide 24

25 THANK YOU! Photo Credit : Lighthawk Aerial Community Development Agency 3501 Civic Center Drive, Rm. 308 San Rafael, CA T Marin County Board of Supervisors 2/27/18

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