Mexico sugar towards 2014/15. Forget the inflexion point?

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1 Mexico sugar towards 20 Forget the inflexion point? Pablo Sherwell VP, Food & Agribusiness Research & Advisory September

2 Rabobank: Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory

3 Objective The objective of my presentation is to discuss the main drivers and prospects for the Mexican sugar market towards the 20. 3

4 Mexico Sugar Market Background 4

5 Things to know about the Mexican sugar market Mexico in the world The 7 th largest sugar producer in the world. Becoming a global player: It is NOT a residual exporter as it used to: NAFTA + Rest of the World (RoW) Price formation is different than most of other countries Domestic MX sugar prices are higher than US (#16) and World (#11) In Mexico Accounts for 8.5 % Ag GDP; 2.5% manufacturing GDP 440 thousand jobs million indirect jobs Around 12 million people depend (directly or indirectly) on the sector A long the supply chain: independent labor in cane fields, cane growers, private sector, labor unionized in mills, government. Cane prices depend on sugar prices Policy focused primarily on cane growers Partially protected market Strong economic interaction between cane growers, mills and government Due to policy and market s structure, cane area is highly inelastic towards other crops

6 00/01 01/02 03/04 The Mexican sugar market went through a structural change Mexico sugar S&D Million tonnes, actual weight 8,000 3,000 7,000 2,500 6,000 5,000 2,000 4,000 1,500 3,000 1,000 2,000 1, Stocks Domestic use (LHS) Production (LHS) Exports Source: Rabobank, USDA, SAGARPA, SNIIM

7 99/00 00/01 01/02 03/04 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Ago 14 Mexico s cane area planted increased as a result of high sugar prices Rabobank Sugar Baseline Mexico: cane area Mexico: field yields (1,000 Has) (cents per pound) Estandard Estándar Avg Refined Refined Avg Industralized area Area Planted Source: Rabobank, August 2014

8 Mexico Sugar Market Current situation and prospects for 20 8

9 Jan 11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 13 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Prices dropped as a result of global, region and domestic fundamentals. World and NAFTA prices (cents per pound) US refined 50 Mexico Standard 40 US raw 30 World raw Source: USDA, Rabobank _Sept 2014 World Mexico Standard USraw US refined 2014

10 99/00 00/01 01/02 03/04 Despite low prices, area planted in Mexico remains high due to (1,000 Has) Rabobank Sugar Baseline Mexico: Cane area planted Some mills are trying to increase margins Why is the Mexican area planted increasing today?? Economies of scale Area planted and yields are increasing! Industralized area Area Planted Cost is the key variable Mills are moving backwards along the supply chain Source: Rabobank, SAGARPA

11 /01 The integration between the US and the Mexican sugar market tells an important part of the recent story. US sugar market US HFCS Consumption: Sugar vs HFCS (1,000 Tonnes, raw value) (1,000 Tonnes, dw) (1,000 Tonnes) (%) 12,000 10,000 12, ,000 10,000 9,000 Consumption Deficit 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 Production Surpluss 10,000 8,000 6, ,000 7,500 Consumption 4, ,000 6,000 Production 7,000 6,500 2, , Production Domestic use Production Consumption HFCS Sugar % HFCS Source: USDA, Rabobank March 2014 Dw= dry weight; HFCS= High Fructuose Corn Syrup Confidential

12 00/01 01/02 03/04 00/01 01/02 03/04 Mexico s market structure is inversely proportional to the US Rabobank Sugar Baseline Mexico: cane area Mexico: HFCS (1,000 Tons.) (1,000 Tons, dw) 7,500 2,000 7,000 1,800 6,500 1,600 6,000 1,400 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 1,200 1, , ,000 0 Domestic use (LHS) Production (LHS) Domestic use (LHS) Production (LHS) Source: Rabobank, August 2014 Source: SAGARPA, Rabobank Aug 2014 Dw= dry weight; HFCS= High Fructuose Corn Syrup Confidential

13 Where is the Mexican sugar market going in 20? Two scenarios: Rabobank Sugar Baseline (BL) Assuming normal conditions Alternative scenario What if exports to the US change its course from our BL?

14 Where is the Mexican sugar market going in 20? Two scenarios: Rabobank Sugar Baseline (BL) Assuming normal conditions Alternative scenario What if exports to the US change its course from our BL?

15 99/00 00/01 01/02 03/04 99/00 00/01 01/02 03/04 Mexico s current area planted will slightly decline while yields should remain at current levels Rabobank Sugar Baseline Mexico: cane area Mexico: field yields (1,000 Tons.) (Tons per hectare) Industralized area Area Planted Source: Rabobank, August 2014

16 Mexico s sugar production is expected at 6.27 mt, consumption at 4.3 mt. Exports to the US will decline while to the rest of the world will remain at current levels 00/01 01/02 03/04 00/01 01/02 03/04 Rabobank Sugar Baseline Mexico: production & use Mexico: exports (1,000 Tons.) (1,000 Tons.) 7,500 2,500 7,000 6,500 2,000 6,000 5,500 1,500 5,000 4,500 1,000 4, ,500 3,000 0 Domestic use (LHS) Production (LHS) To USA Rest of the world Source: Rabobank, August 2014

17 00/01 01/02 03/04 00/01 01/02 03/04 Mexico s stocks will decline and domestic prices will find a strong support Rabobank Sugar Baseline Mexico: stocks Mexico: Sugar prices (1,000 Tons.) (%) (pesos per 50 kg bag of Estandard sugar) 2, , ,500 1, Stocks (LHS) Mean Stocks-to-use (RHS) Stocks-to-use (RHS) Source: Rabobank, August 2014 LHS: Left Hand side RHS: Right Hand Side

18 Where is the Mexican sugar market going in 20? Two scenarios: Rabobank Sugar Baseline (BL) Assuming normal conditions Alternative scenario What if exports to the US change its course from our BL?

19 If Mexican exports drop to 1 mt, exports to the rest of the world will marginally increase, consumption will rise further and production will decline to 6 mt. 00/01 01/02 03/04 Rabobank Sugar Baseline versus alternative scenario Mexico: exports Mexico: production & use (1,000 Tons.) (1,000 Tons.) ,500 7, ,500 6, ,500 5, ,500 4, ,500 3,000 0 RoW Alternative To US RoW BL Production Alternative Use Alternative Production BL Use BL Source: Rabobank, August 2014

20 Under this scenario domestic prices could fluctuate around the lows mx$400 pesos per 50 kg, below the BL (pesos per 50 kg bag) 600 Rabobank Sugar Baseline versus alternative scenario Alternative Baseline

21 If production remains around 6.3 mt, prices will drop further, around the mid mx$350 per 50 kg bag. Rabobank Sugar Baseline versus alternative scenario (pesos per 50 kg bag) Alternative Baseline

22 Final comments 22

23 Final comments Mexico went through a structural change Under normal conditions: Production will remain above historical average and fundamentals will give support to prices. However,. An inflexion point? Not likely! Mexican prices There are many possible scenarios and high uncertainty as we move into 20

24 The financial link to the global food chain Pablo Sherwell VP, Food & Agribusiness Research & Advisory September

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