Feeds, Price and Vola0lity

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1 Feeds, Price and Vola0lity Growing Michigan Agriculture Conference Lansing Center, Lansing, MI Jim Hilker Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department Michigan State University January 24, 2013

2 Feeds, Price and Vola0lity Problem: Low and risky returns to livestock producers despite relaively high, but volaile livestock prices. Low Returns Largely Stems From: High and volaile feed prices. High and Vola0le Prices caused by: Tight projected stocks/ending stocks. Causes both high prices and volaility. Even small coninuously changing Supply and Demand condiions are more pronounced. Accented by: Short supplies of all/most subsitutes naionally, local condiions may differ marginally.

3 Feeds, Price and Vola0lity How long will this last? UnIl ending stocks are more pleniful. When could that happen? Could begin mid- summer and be in place by next fall. Does it have to happen this fall? No To happen late this year: Large feed crops in the U.S. and Rest of the World. Otherwise: Two normal years. Could it get worse? Yes When? This spring

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6 WORLD CORN ENDING STOCKS Crop Year Mil. MT South Africa China Brazil Argentina US all other Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS 01/11/13

7 Monthly Corn Futures

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9 U S HAY STOCKS AND PRODUCTION Crop Year Mil. Tons December 1 Hay Stocks 80 Alfalfa Hay Production 60 Other Hay Production Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC 01/11/13

10 U S ALL HAY STOCKS December 1 Mil. Tons Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-22 01/11/13

11 U S ALL HAY STOCKS May 1 (Beginning of Crop Year) Mil. Tons Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-21 01/11/13

12 ALFALFA HAY - MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICE Received by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year $ Per Ton Avg. 06/07-11/ / / MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR Livestock Marketing Information Center G-P-12 12/31/12 Data Source: USDA-NASS

13 OTHER HAY - MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICE Received by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year $ Per Ton Avg. 06/07-11/ / / MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR Livestock Marketing Information Center G-P-13 12/31/12 Data Source: USDA-NASS

14 ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains $ Per Cwt lb Steer Calves lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-06 09/23/12

15 Feb Live CaXle Futures

16 Dollars ANNUAL AVERAGE HOG PRICES National Slaughter Hog ($/cwt) 40 Lb Feeder Pig ($/Hd) Lb Feeder Pig ($/Hd) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS 02/10/12

17 Feb Lean Hog Futures Prices

18 $ Per Head AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 725 Lb. Steers, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: December Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-22 01/18/13

19 $/Head 60 IOWA MARKET HOG PROFIT Farrow/Finish, Monthly Latest Data: December Livestock Marketing Information Center 01/18/13 Data Source: Iowa State University

20 $ Per Cow 200 ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-66 09/20/12 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

21 $ Per Cwt CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: December 2012 Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-21 01/18/13

22 Feeds, Price and Vola0lity Michigan Corn: Michigan s projected 2012 corn yield was raised from 120 to 133 bu/acre in the January report. Shows the variability in supplies around the state Michigan Corn ProducIon down 5% from last year, even with 2 years ago. Corn Acres were up 6% and 10%. Silage: 2012 Silage ProducIon was down 33% from 2010 and Silage acres were actually down this year, and we had lower yields. Abandoned acres were up. Hay: 2012 acres down 3% and yield down 33% relaive to 2010 and 2011 Baled Corn Stalks?

23 U S ANNUAL CORN ENDING STOCKS Crop Year Bil. Bushels Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-09 01/11/13

24 $ Per Bushel 8.00 NATIONAL AVERAGE CORN PRICE Crop Year, Received by Farmers Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-03 01/11/13

25 U S ALL HAY SUPPLY Crop Year Mil. Tons May 1 Stocks Production Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-19 01/11/13

26 Feeds, Price and Vola0lity Probabili-es At this point the market is expec0ng a normal corn crop. July corn prices expected to be around $ % Chance of July Corn prices being $8.00 or higher: Probability means 2013 projected corn yield is expected to be 6-8 bu. below trend. 20% Chance July Corn prices being $6.00 or lower: Probability means 2013 projected corn yield is expected to be 4-6 bu. above trend.

27 Feeds, Price and Vola0lity Probabili-es At this point the market is expec0ng a normal corn crop. Harvest corn prices expected to be $ % Chance Harvest Corn prices being $7.00 or higher: Probability means 2013 corn yield was 6-8 bu. below trend. 20% Chance Harvest Corn prices being $4.40 or lower: Probability means 2013 corn yield was 4-6 bu. above trend.

28 Thanks QuesIons/Discussion Jim Hilker s Web Page

29 Dairy Feeds, Price and Vola0lity Growing Michigan Agriculture Conference Lansing Center, Lansing, MI Chris Wolf Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department Michigan State University January 24, 2013

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32 Nov 2012 Year- over- Year changes in milk producion

33 US Drought Monitor Jan 18, 2013 US hay crop 120 m tons in 2012 down 18% from average Dec 1 hay stocks 76.5 m tons lowest since 1974

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35 Milk Price Outlook Bearish factors DomesIc economic condiions High product prices Imports rising Strong producion in NZ Bullish factors ConInued high feed prices US more compeiive internaionally Lagging West/SW milk producion

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38 Thanks QuesIons/Discussion

39 MSU is an affirmaive- acion, equal- opportunity employer. Michigan State University Extension programs and materials are open to all without regard to race, color, naional origin, gender, gender idenity, religion, age, height, weight, disability, poliical beliefs, sexual orientaion, marital status, family status or veteran status.

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