Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook

Transcription

1 Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook Mare Forum, Jakarta 27 Peter Malpas 29 th November 27

2 Introduction

3 Indonesia Key Facts Land Area 1,919,44 km2 = World s s 16 th Largest Population 235 million = World s s 4th Largest GDP (PPP) US$ 1.38 trillion = World s s 15 th Largest GDP per capita US$ 4,356 = World s s 114 th largest Comprising 17,58 islands

4 Fundamentals

5 GDP Long Term View China India USA Indonesia % annual growth Source: Official - BS

6 Asian Economies GDP parity US$ (trillion) China Skorea India Japan Taiwan Philipp Cambodia Spore Indonesia thailand vietnam malaysia USA Australia

7 Energy Forecasts

8 World Energy Demand by Source Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Quadrillion btu Source: EIA

9 China Energy Demand by Type quadrillion btu Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables

10 India Energy Demand by Type 3 Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables 25 quadrillion btu

11 Steel Intensity & Steel Forecasts

12 Steel Drives the Market! Steel Related Steam Coal 73 % % Dry Bulk Cargoes % % 25 % 23 % 52 % 6 % 2 22 % % 7 % World Australia India China Cape Trade

13 Steel Intensity The relationship between economic growth and steel consumption. Based on the logic that increases in GDP have less impact in steel consumption in developed economies than emerging ones. Moderated by market intelligence.

14 Steel Consumption Potential cons/pc 27 population per capita steel cons (kg) population (million) India Indonesia China USA Japan South Korea 2

15 Indonesia Steel Consumption 18, 8 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, k tonnes kg per capita

16 China Steel Consumption 7, 65, 6, 55, 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, k tonnes kg per capita

17 Indonesian & World Trade

18 World Dry Bulk Trade 26 Baux/Alumina 2% Phos Rock/Fert 5% Coking Coal 6% Minor Ores 2% Other Minor Bulk 9% Iron Ore 22% Forest Prod 7% Steam Coal 19% Agribulk 13% Steel Ind Minor Bulk 15%

19 Dry Bulk Trade Growth 5,, 4,5, 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, k tonnes Other Other Forest Products Woodchip Salt Cement/Clinker Scrap Coke Phos Rock /Fert Bauxite /Alum Steel Grain Coal Iron Ore

20 China Monthly Iron Ore Imports Aug-2 Nov-2 Feb-3 May-3 Aug-3 Nov-3 Feb-4 May-4 Aug-4 Nov-4 Feb-5 May-5 Aug-5 Nov-5 Feb-6 May-6 Aug-6 Nov-6 Feb-7 May-7 Aug-7 m tonnes source: China s Customs Statistics

21 Sources of Chinese Iron Ore Imports 4 35 million tonnes Brazil Australia India 27Q1 27Q2 27Q3

22 China Iron Ore Consumption vs Imports 1,4, 1,2, 1,, Imports Consumption 8, 6, 4, 2, tonnes

23 Asia Steam Coal Demand k tonnes 3,, 2,75, 2,5, 2,25, 2,, 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, 75, 5, 25, NE Asia SE Asia SW Asia

24 Key Steam Coal Exporters k tonnes 24, 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Australia China Colombia Indonesia Khazakstan Russia S Africa USA Vietnam

25 China Coal Exports 1, 9, 8, 7, Coking Coal Steam Coal 6, k tonnes 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,

26 China Coal Export Markets k tonnes 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, S Korea Japan Taiwan Philippines India Hong Kong Turkey Other

27 China Coal Imports 8, 7, 6, Coking Coal Steam Coal 5, k tonnes 4, 3, 2, 1,

28 China Coal Import Sources 35, 3, , k tonnes 2, 15, 1, 5, Vietnam Australia Indonesia Mongolia N Korea Russia N Zealand Other

29 India Coal Imports 16, 14, 12, Coking Coal Steam Coal 1, k tonnes 8, 6, 4, 2,

30 India: Coal Import Sources 27 Other, 7.9 South Africa, 2.1 Australia, 25.6 Indonesia, 25.2 (million tonnes)

31 Indonesian Coal Exports 3, 25, 2, k tonnes 15, 1, 5,

32 Indonesian Coal Customers 28 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, k tonnes 5, Japan South Korea India Taiwan China Hong Kong Malaysia Italy Thailand Philippines Spain Israel United States

33 Bauxite Exports Indonesia 14, 18 k tonnes 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, k tonnes % of World % of world trade

34 Nickel Ore Exports Indonesia 4,5 4, k tonnes % of World ,5 3 k tonnes 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, % of world trade

35 Employment

36 Capesize Employment Iron Ore Coal Grain mdwt per year

37 Panamax Employment 4 35 Iron Ore Coal Grain Bauxite /Alum Phos Rock /Fert Coke m dwt per annum Other Dry Trades

38 Handymax Cargo Breakdown Scrap 6% Other 17% Agribulk 21% Forest Prod 5% Iron Ore 6% Baux/Alum 6% Phos R/Fert 6% Coal 14% Steel 19%

39 Vessels Employed in Coal 8 Cape Panamax Handymax 7 m dwt per annum

40 Freight & Markets

41 Record Spot Rates $ per day 2, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, cape panamax supramax handymax handysize Commencement of Chinese Rapid Development Chinese Credit Crunch Record Chinese Iron Ore imports Cooling Chinese Steel Demand & Reducing Congestion Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Dec-99 Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-2 Jun-2 Sep-2 Dec-2 Mar-3 Jun-3 Sep-3 Dec-3 Mar-4 Jun-4 Sep-4 Dec-4 Mar-5 Jun-5 Aug-5 Nov-5 Feb-6 May-6 Aug-6 Nov-6 Feb-7 May-7 Aug-7 Nov-7 CAPE Oct 7 194,115 avg Jun 2 9,33 + 2,8%!!! PANAMAX Oct 7 94,977 Avg Jun2 6, ,477%!!!

42 Vessel Supply

43 Bulker Fleet Existing & On Order no of vessels 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, existing fleet on order 2,37 2,75 1, Capesize Mini-Cape Post-Pmax Panamax Handymax Handy

44 Small Handysize (1-24,999 dwt) on order delivered <= no of vessels

45 Large Handysize (25-34,999 dwt) on order delivered <= no of vessels

46 Small Handymax (35-44,999 dwt) on order delivered <= no of vessels

47 Large Handymax (45-59,999 59,999 dwt) on order delivered <= no of vessels

48 Ships Keep Getting Bigger Average Dwt 56, 54, 52, 5, 48, 46, 44, 42, 4, 38, 36, 34, 32, 3, 28, 26, 24, 22, 2, Handymax Handy Av. 44,46 Av. 21,17 Av. 56,2 Av. 31,

49 Panamax (6-84,999 dwt) on order delivered <= no of vessels

50 Bulker Fleet Growth low scrap high scrap no scrap m dwt

51 Shipbuilding Orders from Jan Tanker Bulker Container Ship general cargo Gas Vehicle Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Dec-6 Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 million GT

52 Shipbuilding Orders from Jan 26 1% 9% % % of ordering 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Other Japan China Korea 2% 1% % Dwt GT

53 Shipbuilding Output dwt Passenger Vehic Gas Gen Cargo Container Ship Bulker Tanker million dwt

54 Forecast Shipyard Capacity million dwt Korea China Japan ROW World Output

55 Growing Shipyard Capacity the issues Primary Expansion from New & Inexperienced Chinese Yards Shortage of Skilled Labour Supervision & Quality Control Suffering Steep Rise in Steel Prices Shortage in Supply of Engines & Equipment Financial Pressures on Reputable & Experienced Shipbuilders

56 Conclusion Dry bulk trade growing at min 3% up until 215 Steel to continue to drive the market China, India biggest drivers not OECD Relative tight balance between vessel supply and demand through 28 Developing oversupply through 29 Significant oversupply in 21 Handysize market has room to breathe due to niche markets, lower oversupply and very old fleet

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