PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION
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1 PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2018
2 THE SASKATCHEWAN DIFFERENCE Economic Stability Diversified economy balances cyclicality of resources Growing population Majority government with strong mandate Fiscal Responsibility Budget : On Track to return to balance in fiscal No major new tax changes Continued targeted infrastructure investments Financial Flexibility Among lowest provincial debt levels in Canada Low reliance on federal transfer payments Strong credit ratings 2
3 DIVERSIFIED 2016 REAL GDP BY INDUSTRY Education & Healthcare 11% Government Services 6% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 6% Business Services 9% Mining and Petroleum 21% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 14% Wholesale and Retail Trade 11% Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 7% Manufacturing 7% Construction 7% 3 4
4 TRADE- DRIVEN 2 nd highest level of exports among Provinces 39% of GDP 5
5 RENEWABLE AND NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES 5
6 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW SASKATCHEWAN KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2017 over 2016) Per Cent Change Retail Wholesale Sales Source: Statistics Canada 8.0 New Cars Mfg Sales 8.7 Exports 10.9 Bldg Permits 2.7 Housing Starts Many of the key indicators posted strong growth in 2017 While some investment indicators were down slightly in 2017, they remain high in an historical context 6
7 GROWTH RETURNS IN 2017 Saskatchewan Economic (Per Cent Change Unless Otherwise Noted) Real GDP Nominal GDP CPI* Employment Growth (000 jobs)* (0.9) Unemployment Rate (%)* Retail Sales* * 2017 Actual Signs in 2017 that the economy is rebounding from recent challenges include: Population reached 1,169,752 as of January 1, 2018, an increase of 13,410 from January 1, Manufacturing sales grew by 12.6 per cent and new motor vehicles sales were up by 8.0 per cent in 2017, the fourth-highest percentage increases among provinces. Oil production and value of sales were up by 5.4 per cent and 33.9 per cent in 2017, respectively. Potash production and value of sales were up by 13.1 per cent and 13.9 per cent in 2017, respectively 7
8 Thousands of People Number of People STRONG EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION FUNDAMENTALS SASKATCHEWAN EMPLOYMENT Average (550.5) Source: Statistics Canada Average (477.1) SASKATCHEWAN POPULATION GROWTH (January 1) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000 Source: Statistics Canada Average (+16,120) Average (-2,319)
9 COMPETITIVE TAX AND UTILITY RATES 2 nd lowest personal taxes among provinces 2018 INTERCITY COMPARISON OF TAXES AND UTILITIES (FAMILY AT $100,000 TOTAL INCOME) Competitive business tax environment Total Household Utility Costs comprised of: home heating, electricity, telephone and auto insurance. Source: Ministry of Finance, Budget
10 BUDGET ($M) Budget Forecast Budget Revenue 14, , ,243.5 Expense 14, , ,608.8 Adjustments (50.0) - - Surplus / (Deficit) (696.0) (595.0) (365.3) Budget $365M deficit Revenue up 0.6% from Budget / up 2.2% from Q3 Expense down 1.4% from Budget / up 0.5% from Q3 10
11 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS The Plan: Budget 2017 established a 3-year plan to restore balance by controlling spending and reducing dependence on volatile resource revenue Budget 2018: Controls spending while providing important investments in health care, education and social services Supports continued economic growth Continues on the course to restore a balanced budget by
12 REVENUE MEASURES Maintaining last year s efforts to shift reliance from volatile resource revenues to consumption taxes No increases to tax rates PST, income taxes, EPT and no carbon tax New initiatives Saskatchewan Value-added Agriculture Incentive Saskatchewan Technology Start-up Incentive 13
13 BALANCED REVENUE SOURCES TOTAL REVENUE $14.2B 13
14 CONTAINED EXPENSE GROWTH TOTAL EXPENSE $14.6B 14
15 Millions of Tonnes US$/Barrel # of Wells Drilled COMMODITY PRODUCTION WTI OIL PRICE AND OIL WELLS DRILLED Forecast ,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Oil Wells Drilled WTI Oil Price Source: Ministry of Energy and Resources SASKATCHEWAN CROP PRODUCTION Average (23.8) Average (31.2) Source: Ministry of Agriculture 15
16 RESOURCE ASSUMPTIONS RESOURCE ASSUMPTIONS: WTI Oil Price (US$/bbl) Differential (% of WTI) Production (million barrels) Potash Price (US$/KCl tonne) Potash Sales (million K 2 O tonnes) Canadian Dollar (US cents) Sensitivities to Budget Assumptions Change Net Impact ($M) Oil Price (WTI US$/barrel) $1 16 Exchange Rate (USD/CAD) 1 cent 21 Potash Prices (US$/KCI tonne) $
17 RETURN TO BALANCE MEDIUM-TERM FINANCIAL OUTLOOK ($M) Revenue 14,244 14,761 15,114 15,518 Expense 14,609 14,755 15,006 15,306 Surplus (Deficit)* (365) Revenue growth 1.6% 3.6% 2.4% 2.7% Expense growth -1.4% 1.0% 1.7% 2.0% 18
18 TARGETED INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS Infrastructure Investments ($B) Saskatchewan Builds Capital Plan 1.2 Crown Corporation infrastructure investments 1.5 Total Infrastructure Investment 2.7 SaskPower = $883M SaskTel = $298M SaskEnergy = $268M SaskWater = $34M SASKATCHEWAN BUILDS CAPITAL PLAN ($ Millions) 2,000 1,800 1,757 1,582 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, , , ,154 1, F
19 MANAGEABLE DEBT LEVEL ($M) (As at March 31) Budget Forecast Budget GRF - Operating 5, , , SK Builds Capital Plan 2, , ,193.8 Other GSO Debt GSO Debt 9, , ,775.1 GBE Debt 9, , ,259.8 Second lowest Net Debt to GDP ratio among provinces Public Debt 18, , ,034.9 $2.28B increase in total public debt from Up $1.44B for SK Builds Capital Plan Up $400M for GRF operating Down $95M for other GSOs Up $536M for GBEs 20
20 CONSERVATIVE DEBT MANAGEMENT Domestic issuance focused, no FX exposure Focused on longer term issuance 17+ years average term to maturity of term debt Sinking Fund currently $2.0B Significant short-term borrowing capacity Promissory Note authority up to $4.0B Accessed $232M prom note financing in F Modest near-term debenture maturities 21
21 BORROWING PROGRAM * *includes $600M of pre-borrowing 21
22 DEBT PORTFOLIO as at March 31,
23 STRONG CREDIT RATINGS RATING AGENCY CURRENT RATING LONG-TERM CURRENT RATING SHORT-TERM MOODY S Aaa Not Rated STANDARD & POOR S AA A-1+ FITCH AA F1+ DBRS AA R-1 (high) April
24 Province of Saskatchewan CONTACT INFORMATION: Rod Balkwill Denise Macza Executive Director Associate Deputy Minister 1 (306) (306) rod.balkwill@gov.sk.ca denise.macza@gov.sk.ca
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