The MS Economic Outlook The Fall Forum
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1 The Economic Outlook The Fall Forum Darrin Webb, State Economist University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning (601) September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 1
2 Growth In Real GDP 2.4% 2.8% 3.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 2.2% 1.8% 2.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.2% 3.1% 0.7% 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 2
3 112 Index of Coincident Indicators Index 2004= Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 The Mississippi Index of Coincident Indicators reflects economic conditions existing in a given month. The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and reindexed to The Index is based on changes in nonfarm employment, the unemployment rate, average manufacturing workweek length and wage and salary disbursements. September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 3
4 Regional Comparison of August Coincident Index Percentage Growth Since Recession Trough 140.0% 130.0% 120.0% 110.0% 116.5% 115.6% 124.0% 127.1% 121.4% 112.0% 114.6% 125.3% 116.9% 130.5% 133.5% 131.2% 121.9% 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% US September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 4
5 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Annual Growth in Real GDP for SE States % 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% Avg. Annual Growth in Nonfarm Employment for SE States 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 5
6 and US Employment Growth Y/Y % Change by Month 4.0% 3.0% US 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 6
7 2.74% CA 3.41% OR 3.14% WA % AK 2.63% NV 3.38% ID 2.88% AZ 3.30% UT Nonfarm Employment January August % MT % WY 0.47% NM 2.14% HI 2.76% CO % ND 1.64% SD 1.30% NE 1.57% % KS % 1.28% MN U.S. Average 1.81% Decline Between 0% and 1.0% Between 1.0% and 2.25% Greater than 2.25% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL % IA 0.87% MO 2.02% % 1.52% WI 0.88% IL 1.16% 1.37% IN MI 2.17% 2.71% 0.98% 1.53% 1.50% OH 2.95% -0.41% WV 1.68% VT 2.49% 3.21% 1.01% PA 2.19% VA 2.13% 1.75% NH 1.33% NY 0.73% ME 1.66% NJ 2.89% DE 2.00% MD 1.85% MA 1.16% RI 0.86% CT
8 Nonfarm Employment 1,200 1,150 1,161.8 May 00 1,161.8 Feb 08 1,147.5 Aug 16 Thousands 1,100 1,050 1,000 1,110.9 Jun 03 1,084.2 Jan September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 8
9 Where are the Jobs? Mississippi has added an average 13,100 jobs in 2016 over 2015 Trade, Transportation & Utlities Leisure & Hospitality Government Education & Health Services Manufacturing Construction Information Other Services Financial Activities Mining and logging Professional & Business Services 2, ,125 2,837 2,675 4,213 4,975 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 9
10 Jobs Gained (Lost) By County * 32 Counties Lost Employment 49 Counties Gained Employment 1 County Saw No Change Greater than 200 Loss Less than 200 Loss No Change Less than 200 Gained Greater than 200 Gained * The average employment for the January to July period is compared for both years. -39 Adams -14 Wilkinson -541 Warren -49 Claiborne 1,566 Tunica Coahoma Quitman 269 Bolivar 17 Sunflower -526 Leflore -349 Washington 13 Sharkey -17 Issaquena -20 Jefferson -30 Franklin 14 Amite -103 Humphreys 96 Yazoo 903 Madison 1,447 Hinds 116 Copiah 89 Lincoln 50 Tallahatchie 0 Pike 1,729 De Soto -40 Carroll -7 Holmes 231 Tate 90 Panola 50 Simpson 23 Yalobusha Benton Marshall Tippah -83 Attala -60 Leake 37 Smith Covington 31 Jefferson Lawrence Davis Marion Walthall -16 Pearl River -53 Hancock -40 Calhoun 104 Grenada Webster Montgomery 601 Rankin 1,037 Lafayette 120 Scott 113 Choctaw 39 Chickasaw 67 Winston 271 Neshoba -81 Newton -113 Jasper -294 Jones 517 Union 497 Pontotoc 103 Stone 571 Harrison 110 Clay 194 Oktibbeha Lamar ForrestPerry 37 Alcorn -13 Prentiss 1,656 Lee 19 Monroe 321 Kemper -224 Lauderdale -200 Wayne 156 Lowndes 61 Noxubee -21 Clarke 4 Greene 77 George -289 Jackson 233 Tishomingo 189 Itawamba September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 10
11 Which counties are back to their pre recession level? Percentage of Jobs Gained (Lost) By County * Loss Gain -15% Adams -21% Wilkinson -6% Warren -15% Claiborne 7% Tunica -10% -30% Coahoma Quitman -13% Bolivar -23% Sunflower -26% Leflore -19% Washington -32% Sharkey -46% Issaquena -19% Jefferson -6% Franklin -13% Amite -46% Humphreys -8% Yazoo 13% Madison -7% Hinds -6% Copiah 1% Lincoln -2% Tallahatchie -5% Pike 8% De Soto -4% Simpson 6% -5% 4% Benton Marshall Tippah -4% Attala -2% Leake -22% -10% Covington -7% Jefferson Lawrence Davis 3% Calhoun.09% Grenada 18% -4% Webster Montgomery -32% Carroll -15% Holmes 0.29% Tate -10% Panola 0.1% Rankin -5% Yalobusha -3% -13% Marion Walthall 10% Lafayette -1% Scott 1% Smith 11% Choctaw -0.39% Chickasaw -12% Winston -24% Neshoba -8% Newton -16% Jasper -15% Jones 14% Union 7% Pontotoc 8% Clay 14% Oktibbeha 20% -11% -17% Lamar ForrestPerry 4% Alcorn 1% Prentiss 7% Lee -4% Monroe -14% Kemper -4% Lauderdale -13% Wayne -3% Lowndes 3% Noxubee -14% Clarke -11% Greene 3% Tishomingo 4% Itawamba * The average employment is compared for both years. 5% Pearl River 1% Hancock -18% Stone -2% Harrison -3% George -2% Jackson September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 11
12 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Unemployment Claims Three Month Moving Average Initial Unemployment Claims Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Continued Unemployment Claims September 2016 Initial Claims Continued Claims University Research Center, IHL 12
13 Unemployment Stats 15,000 10,000 5,000 (5,000) (10,000) Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed (seeking employment) Unemployment rate = Share of Labor force that is unemployed (15,000) Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Monthly Chg in Labor Force Monthly Chg in Employment Unemployment rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 13
14 Index of Leading Indicators Index 2004= Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 The Mississippi Index of Leading Indicators reflects economic conditions expected for the coming months. The index is constructed by the University Research Center and indexed to There are 7 components of the Index: Initial Unemployment Claims; Income Tax Withholdings; Value of Residential Building Permits; MFG Employment Intensity Index, ISM Index of US MFG Activity; US Consumer Expectations Index and US Retail Sales. September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 14
15 Year Over Year Growth in Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments: Mississippi by Quarter 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Gray Areas Represent National Recessions. September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 15
16 Mississippi Income Tax Withholdings Growth Over Prior Year, Inflation Adjusted 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 9.7% 8.7% 8.9% 8.3% 8.3% 8.0% 6.2% 5.1% 4.7% 4.9% 5.2% 4.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 3.8% * September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 16
17 Per Capita Income $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $ US US Gap September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 17
18 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Mississippi Sales Tax Transfers to the General Fund by CY Growth Over Prior Year, Inflation Adjusted 2.8% 1.8% 6.2% 3.6% 1.0% 1.6% 0.4% 5.3% 8.6% 2016* reflects growth through August over Prior year. 6.2% 10.4% 1.3% 2.3% 7.7% 2.0% 3.3% Growth has been modest through the recovery, and was especially anemic in While growth has improved in 2016, it remains low. 1.7% 2.5% 1.8% * 0.1% 1.3% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 18
19 Manufacturing Employment and Hours Worked WW Length Employment Jan 90 Jan 91 Jan 92 Jan 93 Jan 94 Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Employment, Thousands Hours Worked, 3Mmonth Moving Average September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 19
20 Inflation Adjusted Average Hourly Manufacturing Earnings in Mississippi $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar 16 September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 20
21 Gaming Revenue, Adjusted for Inflation Millions of 2004 Dollars $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 0.2% Coast River If current growth is maintained % CHG 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 21
22 Housing Starts US and 2,500,000 18,000 16,000 2,000,000 14,000 1,500,000 12,000 10,000 1,000,000 8,000 6, ,000 4,000 0 US (Left Axis) (Right Axis) 2, * September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 22
23 Growth In Real GDP Historical and University Research Center Projections 8.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 2.2% 5.4% 4.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 2.8% 2.7% 1.2% 3.1% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.8% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.3% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 23
24 Growth In Nonfarm Employment Historical and University Research Center Projections 2.0% 0.6% 0.8% 2.0% 0.1% 2.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 2.4% 5.3% 0.5% 4.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 24
25 Mississippi University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Darrin Webb, State Economist (601) To subscribe to our publications, including Mississippi s Business and The Mississippi Outlook Janna Taylor at jtaylor@mississippi.edu. September 2016 University Research Center, IHL 25
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