2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy"

Transcription

1 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

2 PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2

3 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University, its President, John R. Broderick, the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business, or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy and the Economic Forecasting Project.

4 2018 National and Virginia Economic Forecast Accelerating Growth, Increasing Risk Professor Robert McNab January 31, 2018

5 Current and Historical Expansions Expansion Duration In months Annual Employment Growth Annual Real GDP Growth October 1949 July % 6.14% May 1954 August % 3.67% April 1958 April % 4.86% February 1961 December % 4.68% November 1970 November % 4.60% March 1975 January % 4.01% December 1982 July % 3.81% March 1991 March % 3.45% November 2001 December % 2.66% June 2009 Present* % 2.14% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP in chained 2009 dollars. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. Annual Real GDP CAGR derived from quarterly series. Annual employment CAGR derived from monthly series. Current expansion data ends in Q3. Average annual Real GDP CAGR of previous expansions = 4.21% while average annual employment CAGR from previous expansions = 2.92% 5

6 3.5% 3.0% Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product United States and Virginia, Q4 3.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% Q1 United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP Q2 Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. U.S. Q4 and VA Q3 are advance estimates. VA Q4 is our forecast. Quarterly numbers are annualized rates of growth Q4 6

7 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Thousands of Jobs 150, ,000 Total Nonfarm Employment United States, January 2007 December Million Jobs 147, , , , , , ,000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December are preliminary. Trough was February

8 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Thousands of Jobs 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 Total Nonfarm Employment Virginia, January December 3, ,400 Jobs 3, ,400 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. Data for December are preliminary. Trough is February

9 % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment Virginia and the United States, % 4.69% Months Since Pre-Recession Peak United States Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January Peak employment for Virginia was April Seasonally adjusted data through December. December data are preliminary. Data measure the number of reported jobs by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. 9

10 12% 10% Headline Unemployment Rate (U3) Virginia and United States, January December 10.0% 8% 6% 4.6% 7.4% 4.1% 4% 2% 3.0% 3.7% 0% Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 United States Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. December data are preliminary. 10

11 18% Alternative Measure of the Unemployment Rate (U6) Virginia and the United States, % 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 10.1% 8.2% 12.9% 8.5% 6% 4% 2% 6.8% 6.0% 7.9% 0% United States Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. U-6 measures total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers. State level data based on 4-quarter moving average. Annual averages are presented. 11

12 Individuals 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000-20,000-25,000 3,770 Dec 2016 Month-to-Month Change in Labor Force Virginia, December 2016 to December 5,461 7,460 9,351 Jan Feb Mar 10,911 Apr 4,782 May 7,991 6,061 Jun Jul Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December data are preliminary. 368 Aug 19,560 Sep 1,549 Oct 11,411 Nov 18,263 Dec 12

13 Jobs Month-to-Month Change in Employment Virginia, December 2016 to December 25,000 22,158 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,402 8,280 13,35813,836 10,304 4,697 8,438 5, ,000-10,000-15,000-20,000 Dec 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Seasonally adjusted data. December data are preliminary. 12,832 Nov 16,746 Dec 13

14 % 77.9% Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate United States, January 1980 December 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 63.7% 51.5% 69.0% 62.7% 57.0% 40% Overall Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. 14

15 % 72% 70% Labor Force Participation Rate Virginia, January 1976 to December 71.5% 69.7% 68% 65.3% 66% 64% 62% 60% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Seasonally adjusted data. 15

16 Federal Deficit in Billions of Dollars $400 $200 $236 $128 $0 -$200 -$400 -$600 $158 $378 $413 $318 $248 $161 $459 $485 $438 $585 $666 -$800 $680 -$1,000 -$1,200 $1,087 -$1,400 -$1,600 $1,294 $1,413 $1,300 Source: Office of Management and Budget and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Federal deficits in nominal dollars. 16

17 % 10% 8% 6% Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP United States, 1950-* 6.52% 9.53% 4% 2% 0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Corporate Profits After Tax Without Inventory Adjustment. is through the 3 rd quarter. 17

18 Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio Standard and Poor s Composite Price Index January 1881 January Source: Robert Schiller, Irrational Exuberance. Prices and earnings are in January 2000 dollars. Data as of January 16 th, 2018 market close. For further information: 18

19 Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product Virginia and the United States, % 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% 2.3% 3.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% e 2018f United States Real GDP Virginia Real GDP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Real GDP measured in chained 2009 dollars. US is an advance estimate. VA and 2018 are our forecasts. 19

20 Forecast Actual 2018 Forecast U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2.2% 2.3% 3.0% Civilian Job Growth 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.1% 3.8% Consumer Price Index 2.8% 2.2% 2.9% Core Consumer Price Index 2.4% 1.7% 2.2% 3-month Treasury Bill 1.3% 1.4% 2.0% 10-year Treasury Bill 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% 30-year Treasury Bill % 3.6% 30-year Conventional Mortgage 4.3% 4.0% 5.0% Federal Deficit --- -$655 Billion -$750 Billion Virginia Real GDP* 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% Virginia Employment Growth % 1.3% Source: data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of where appropriate. VA GDP is an estimate based on the first 3 quarters. Data are rounded to nearest tenth. 20

21 2018 Hampton Roads Economic 2018 Hampton Roads Forecast Economic Forecast Stagnant Growth, Growth, Improving Future? Improving Future? Professor Vinod Agarwal Professor January 31, Vinod 2018 Agarwal January 31, 2018

22 Annual Growth Rate in Real GDP Hampton Roads and the United States 3% 2% 1.62% 2.12% 2.17% 1.49% 2.25% 1% 0% -0.04% -1.09% 0.80% -1% -2% 2001 to to to to e United States Hampton Roads Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September. US GDP is advance estimate while Hampton Roads GDP is our estimates. 22

23 % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment Hampton Roads, Virginia and United States, % 4.69% -2.25% -8% Months Since Pre-Recession Peak United States Virginia Hampton Roads Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008, Virginia was April 2008, and Hampton Roads was July Seasonally adjusted data through December (US and VA) and November (HR). Last month of data are preliminary. Data measure number of reported jobs.

24 Defense Spending in Hampton Roads

25 Billions of Dollars DoD Base Budget Cap, Request, and Appropriations Bills Fiscal Year 2018 $590 $580 $570 $560 $550 $540 $530 $520 $510 $500 $490 $522 DoD Budget Control Act Cap $574 POTUS Request $584 $581 House Appropriations Senate Appropriations Sources: Budget Control Act of 2011, FY 2018 Presidential Budget Request, U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate

26 Billions of Dollars Estimated Direct DoD Spending Hampton Roads, 2000 to Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement. Data for 2016 are estimates and data for are forecasts. 26

27 Estimated Average Compensation Hampton Roads, Selected Categories Change in Compensation Military $91,561 $92, % Federal Civilian Govt. Employees State and Local Govt. Employees $107,322 $109, % $62,602 $64, % Private Nonfarm $42,189 $41, % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Compensation includes wages, salaries, and benefits. 27

28 Where are the jobs?

29 Thousands of Jobs Average Annual Civilian Jobs Hampton Roads, Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March 2018

30 Change in Private Sector Employment Selected Industries in Hampton Roads, 2007 Q1 to Q1 Health Care and Social Assistance Accodomation and Food Transportation and Warehousing Professional and Scientific Management of Companies Utilities Finance and Insurance Admin and Support Real Estate Information Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Manufacuting Construction Thousands of Jobs Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by Private Ownership and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.

31 Thousands of Individuals Civilian Labor Force Hampton Roads, Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018

32 Thousands of Individuals Number of Individuals Employed Hampton Roads, 1999 to Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018

33 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Headline Unemployment Rate (U3) Hampton Roads, Virginia, and United States January 2007-December * 4.1% 4.3% 3.7% United States Virginia Hampton Roads Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally adjusted data and the Old Dominion University Forecasting Project. Preliminary data: US and VA (Dec 17) and HR (Nov 17). Hampton Roads data only through November.

34 Residential Housing is Looking Up

35 Millions of Dollars $1,600 $1,400 Value of Building Permits for One-Unit Family Homes Hampton Roads, $1,338 $1,200 $1,000 $978 $800 $600 $551 $400 $200 $0 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project

36 25,000 Existing and New Construction Home Sales Hampton Roads, ,492 20,000 15,000 14,703 10,000 5,000 2,265 3, Existing Homes New Construction Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.

37 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Distribution of New Construction Home Sales by Financing Type Hampton Roads, FHA VA Conventional Cash 49.0% 29.0% 15.8% 4.1% Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.

38 $250,000 $200,000 Median Sales Price of Existing Homes Hampton Roads, $223,000 $180,000 $219,000 $150,000 $116,900 $100,000 $50,000 $ Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed = 91% increase is a 22% increase.

39 Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes for Selected Cities in Hampton Roads: 2007 and Median Price Median Price City % change 2007 Chesapeake $250,100 $245, % Norfolk $195,000 $183, % Portsmouth $165,500 $140, % Suffolk** $257,500 $240, % Virginia Beach $245,000 $247, % Hampton $180,000 $155, % Newport News $199,250 $170, % Williamsburg* $284,450 $283, % Hampton Roads $223,000 $219, % Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. * Williamsburg represents Williamsburg, James City County, York County and Gloucester County. ** Median price in Suffolk peaked in 2006 at $263,950 39

40 30% 25% Short Sales and Bank-Owned Sales as Percent of Total Sales Hampton Roads, % 20% 15% 10% 7.1% 8.4% 5% 0% 1.2% 3.6% 0.2% Short Sales REO Sales

41 Hotel Industry

42 Millions of Dollars Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $520.2 Hotel Revenue in Hampton Roads $708.3 $645.3 $803.1 $841.6 $

43 6.0% Growth in Hotel Revenue and Revenue Per Available Room United States, Virginia, and Hampton Roads, % 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% 4.0% 3.0% 3.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% United States Virginia Hampton Roads Hotel Revenue Revenue per Available Room

44 Source: STR Trend Report, January 17, 2018, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Williamsburg Market includes James City County, York County, and City of Williamsburg. Growth in Hotel Revenue Hampton Roads, 2016 to Hampton Roads Chesapeake/Suffolk Newport News/Hampton 3.85% 4.80% 5.81% Norfolk/Portsmouth 14.43% Virginia Beach 4.15% Williamsburg Market 0.16% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

45 Millions of Dollars Source: Aidna (2018) market data adjusted by Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Excludes shared rooms $7 $6 $5 $4 Monthly Airbnb Revenue in Hampton Roads $5.88 $3 $2.16 $2 $1 $0 $0.42 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

46 Port of Virginia: Growing rapidly

47 Millions of Tons 25 General Cargo Tonnage Port of Virginia, Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.

48 Thousands of TEUs 3,000 Twenty Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs) Port of Virginia, ,841 2,500 2,000 2,128 1,745 2,224 1,500 1,348 1, Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.

49 Millions of Containers Movement of Containers by Type of Transportation Port of Virginia, Rail Barge & Truck

50 Number of TEUs Average TEUs per Container Vessel Call Port of Virginia, ,000 1,800 1,798 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,158 1,201 1,307 1,341 1,410 1,514 1, Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 50

51 Hampton Roads Real Gross Domestic Product Initial Forecast Hampton Roads Real Gross Domestic Product Mid-year revision Forecast Actual 2018 Forecast 1.4% % % Civilian Job Growth 0.5% -0.3% 0.5% Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% Taxable Sales 2.6% 3.0% 3.0% Hotel Revenue 4.4% 4.8% 3.9% General Cargo Tonnage 2.7% 5.3% 2.8% One Unit Housing Permit Value 2.6% 8.5% 2.4% Source: data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of where appropriate. 51

52

53 To receive updates from the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy, please leave your card with us. You may also text CEAPODU to to join our list and follow CEAPODU on Facebook and Twitter. You will not only receive access to our reports and presentations but also monthly economic updates for Hampton Roads. As we launch new products, you will be included in the distribution list. We put it the economy into context so that you can better understand the numbers. 53

54 Questions? Presentation slides will be available at: Professor Vinod Agarwal Professor Robert McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business Old Dominion University 54

55 55

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,

More information

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,

More information

Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business

Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business January 3, 2019 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute

More information

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business October 24, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute

More information

Economic Update: Accelerating Growth and Increasing Risk

Economic Update: Accelerating Growth and Increasing Risk Economic Update: Accelerating Growth and Increasing Risk Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business May 23, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do

More information

Old Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast. Strome College of Business

Old Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast. Strome College of Business Old Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast January 25, 2017 Professor Vinod Agarwal Director, Economic Forecasting Project Strome College of Business www.odu.edu/forecasting The views expressed

More information

State of American Trucking

State of American Trucking State of American Trucking October 11, 2018 Rod Suarez Economic Analyst American Trucking Associations rsuarez@trucking.org Business Cycles U.S. Expansions Duration October 1949 - July 1953 May 1954 -

More information

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014 Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture

More information

President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics

President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.

More information

Economy On The Rebound

Economy On The Rebound Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Executive

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group

Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group State of the Metro Area (in January Each Year) Total Employment has slowly increased in the last three years after

More information

A comment on recent events, and...

A comment on recent events, and... A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,

More information

Economic Update and Outlook

Economic Update and Outlook Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and

More information

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the

More information

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Kenworth National Dealers Conference November 8, 2018 1 National Economic Conditions 2 Volatility Returns to the Stock Market 27,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average October 10,

More information

From Recession to Recovery

From Recession to Recovery From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific

More information

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) AUGUST 2018 WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 Labor Force Employment 1,152,626 1,116,938 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 2016 to 2017: 35957 (3.1%)

More information

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation

More information

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook

Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook 2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Sr. VP/Chief Economist, LAEDC February 17, 2016 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy

More information

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Member FDIC VectraBank.com Economic Outlook 2015 Richard

More information

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts

Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic

More information

Briefing on the State of the State. presented to the. SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy

Briefing on the State of the State. presented to the. SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy Briefing on the State of the State presented to the SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy Rae D. Rosen Assistant Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of New York November 16, 2006 Key Points: Economic

More information

2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014

2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014 2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC October 8, 2014 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy & Industries Five-Year Outlook

More information

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) AUGUST 2016 WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 950,000 900,000 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 Labor Force Employment June 2015 to June 2016: 36,504

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Intermountain Credit Education League May 10, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around

More information

The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya

The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension 2009 Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented

More information

Southern Lodging Summit Memphis, TN. Presented by Randy Smith Founder Smith Travel Research

Southern Lodging Summit Memphis, TN. Presented by Randy Smith Founder Smith Travel Research Southern Lodging Summit Memphis, TN Presented by Randy Smith Founder Smith Travel Research Total US - Key Statistics 12-Months Ending July 2012 % Change Hotels 52.3 k Room Supply 1.8 bn 0.4% Room Demand

More information

Economic Update and Outlook

Economic Update and Outlook The Building Industry Association Of Okaloosa-Walton Counties Economic Update and Outlook Rick Harper, PhD February 1, 2018 The Economic Outlook 3rd longest postwar expansion for U.S., marked 103 months

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Veteran Owned Business Conference May 11, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around Correction

More information

10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business

10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business 10 County Conference Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Hmm... (http://myfallsemester.blogspot.com) Real GDP Growth Percent

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update.

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update. Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update February 26, 2013 The Worst Recession Since the Great Depression 0% Loss from Peak

More information

Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee

Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee The U.S. economy has now enjoyed 7 years of economic growth since the Great Recession Real GDP grew by 1.2% in

More information

How Global Trade Is Driving Demand For Ports

How Global Trade Is Driving Demand For Ports How Global Trade Is Driving Demand For Ports 17 April, 2018 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Strategist JLL Ports Airports and Global Infrastructure JLL Ports Airports and Global Infrastructure Capital Markets

More information

U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business

U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks Presented by the Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado at Boulder U.S. Economic

More information

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global

More information

Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM

Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Moderator: Gillian Tett, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times Speakers: Jared Bernstein,

More information

Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015

Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015 Analysis. Answers Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015 Beacon Economics, LLC California fact versus fiction Looking back a few years (2009 / 2010) everyone was saying that CA would

More information

2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End?

2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? 2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? Advantage Bank Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 15 th, 2018

More information

2018 Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute VP, Division of Strategic Partnerships and

2018 Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute VP, Division of Strategic Partnerships and 2018 Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute VP, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Towson University November 29, 2018 $19,000

More information

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE

2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE 2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS

More information

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS

More information

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers

More information

More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?

More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017 Real GDP

More information

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Presented to State Data Center Conference William F. Fox, Director November 18, 2016 GDP Grows, Though Slowly 10.0 8.0 Percentage Change, Previous Qtr, SAAR 6.0 4.0

More information

The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS

The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS February 2019 Mississippi University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Darrin Webb, State Economist dwebb@mississippi.edu (601)432-6556

More information

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services

The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)

More information

Utility Debt Securitization Authority 2013 T/TE Billed Revenues Tracking Report

Utility Debt Securitization Authority 2013 T/TE Billed Revenues Tracking Report Utility Debt Securitization Authority 2013 T/TE Billed Revenues Tracking Report Billing Budgeted Billed Dollar Percent Month Revenues Revenues Variance Variance Jan 2018 11,943,180.68 12,697,662.47 754,481.79

More information

colorado.edu/business/brd

colorado.edu/business/brd colorado.edu/business/brd Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Southwest Business Forum Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January

More information

MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook

MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook MBA of Alabama Annual Conference June 7, 2017 Presented by Lynn Fisher Mortgage Bankers Association 1 Summary of the MBA Outlook 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP Growth

More information

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President

More information

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs 2019 Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook 1/10/2019 2 U.S. ECONOMY 1/10/2019 3 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

More information

ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW LAST UPDATED: MAY 2018

ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW LAST UPDATED: MAY 2018 ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW LAST UPDATED: MAY 2018 Orlando MSA Market Overview Labor Market Payroll Employment Commercial Real Estate Residential Real Estate Consumer Spending Visitor Industry Labor Market

More information

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webinar December 1, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President

Muhlenkamp & Company. Webinar December 1, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company Webinar December 1, 2016 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management

More information

2014 Economic Forecast: Boulder & Beyond. Keynote Presentation

2014 Economic Forecast: Boulder & Beyond. Keynote Presentation 2014 Economic Forecast: Boulder & Beyond Keynote Presentation Business Research Division Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business

More information

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?

Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.

More information

NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference

NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference Industry Update: The Statistical Reality Presented by Randy Smith, Chairman and Founder, STR Global Lodging Performance Global Regions Occupancy

More information

Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley

Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook Kevin Thorpe, Chief Economist 2012 Another Year Of Modest Improvement 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1

More information

www.colorado.edu/leeds/brd CAREER ADVANCING DEGREES FROM LEEDS EVENING MBA PROGRAM FOR WORKING PROFESSIONALS #1 PART-TIME MBA Program in Colorado according to U.S. News & World Report Engage in a collaborative

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Department Vol. XVIl, No.3 March 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02 Table

More information

Nevada County Population Projections 2015 to 2034

Nevada County Population Projections 2015 to 2034 Nevada County Population Projections 2015 to 2034 Prepared By: Jeff Hardcastle, AICP Nevada State Demographer Nevada Department of Taxation Reno Office: 4600 Kietzke Lane, Building L Suite 235 Reno, NV

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.9 September 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02

More information

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN

ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.11 November 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02

More information

Manufacturers Continue Capacity Expansion as Technology Orders Grow

Manufacturers Continue Capacity Expansion as Technology Orders Grow Contact: Penny Brown, AMT, 703-827-5275 pbrown@amtonline.org For Release: October 8th, 2018 Manufacturers Continue Capacity Expansion as Technology Orders Grow Manufacturing technology orders posted an

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview WIB Education Summit September 19, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 22,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Federal

More information

Your Texas Economy. Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018

Your Texas Economy. Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018 Your Texas Economy Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018 Overview of Texas Economy The Texas economy is growing robustly in 2018 2018 job growth through October is 2.9 percent annualized compared to 2.1

More information

The Erie Economy: Performance, Opportunities, and Challenges

The Erie Economy: Performance, Opportunities, and Challenges The Erie Economy: Performance, Opportunities, and Challenges Eggs n Issues Manufacturer and Business Association December 2015 Dr. Kenneth Louie The Economic Research Institute of Erie Sam and Irene Black

More information

RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT

RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT April 2016 RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS RTC Transit Highlights... Page ii RTC Transit Summary...

More information

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism

More information

The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference

The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented

More information

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area

More information

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer LECTURE 2 OVERVIEW OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION January 22, 2018 I. THE 1920S A. GDP growth and inflation B.

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half

More information

Not For Sale. An American Profile: The United States and Its People

Not For Sale. An American Profile: The United States and Its People An American Profile: The United States and Its People Not For Sale 1 759_EM_AmPro_ptg1.indd 1 Not For Sale 759_EM_AmPro_ptg1.indd 2 An American Profile: The United States and Its People 3 Table 1 Population,

More information

An American Profile: The United States and Its People

An American Profile: The United States and Its People An American Profile: The United States and Its People 1 153641_EM_AmPro.indd 1 12/16/8 11:1:32 PM An American Profile: The United States and Its People 3 Table 1 Population, Percentage Change, and Racial

More information

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS* COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

More information

RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT

RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS RTC RIDE RTC RAPID RTC INTERCITY SIERRA SPIRIT September 218 RTC TRANSIT OPERATING STATISTICS REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS RTC Transit Highlights... Page ii RTC Transit Summary...

More information

US Economic Activity

US Economic Activity US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. US Economic Activity

More information

The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results

The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Economic Outlook Survey Results January 19, 2018 Elif Sen Senior Economic Analyst FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA * The views expressed today are my

More information

How Much Wind Is in the Sails?

How Much Wind Is in the Sails? How Much Wind Is in the Sails? Erie Chamber of Commerce Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations September 20, 2017 Real GDP Growth

More information

Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu

Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu Texas Uncertain Economy in a World of Uncertain Oil Prices Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu National Economic Recovery still Going 2 U.S. Outlook Expected GDP growth still modest:

More information

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert Steel Market Outlook AM/NS Calvert Agenda Economic indicators Key steel consuming markets and forecasted demand Steel consumptions trends Global steel markets and raw materials Comments on trade 1 U.S.

More information

Frederick Ross. Real Estate Market Overview. Presented by: Kevin Thomas Senior Vice President. Frederick Ross. Company.

Frederick Ross. Real Estate Market Overview. Presented by: Kevin Thomas Senior Vice President. Frederick Ross. Company. Frederick Ross Real Estate Market Overview Presented by: Kevin Thomas Senior Vice President Frederick Ross Company January 2003 Business Consumers Source: BEA, Ross Research Housing...Bust or Rust? 2001

More information

11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum!

11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum! 11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum! (almost) Beyond! Macroeconomics Portland, OR! October 16, 2014! Expansion Continues! Five Years and More!! Recession Indicators Nonfarm Payrolls Real Personal Income

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com

More information

The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff)

The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff) The Economy: A View from the (Atlanta) Fed (Staff) 2018 Alabama Economic Outlook Montgomery, AL January 11, 2018 2 The new supply-side economics? In their discussion of monetary policy, participants saw

More information

TABLE 1. REAL GDP AND GROWTH RATES IN THE ESCWA REGION AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES, (Millions of US dollars and percentages) Percentage change

TABLE 1. REAL GDP AND GROWTH RATES IN THE ESCWA REGION AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES, (Millions of US dollars and percentages) Percentage change TABLE 1. REAL GDP AND GROWTH RATES IN THE ESCWA REGION AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES, 2001-2004 (Millions of US dollars and percentages) Percentage change Country/area 2000 2001 2002 2003 a/ 2004 b/ 2001 2002

More information

CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH. Southern California Regional Economic Forecast

CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH. Southern California Regional Economic Forecast CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH Southern California Regional Economic Forecast Lisa M. Grobar, Ph.D. Director, CSULB Economic Forecast Project Office of Economic Research 2009: A terrible year for

More information

Nevada County Population Projections 2013 to 2032 Based On The Last Estimate Year of 2012

Nevada County Population Projections 2013 to 2032 Based On The Last Estimate Year of 2012 Nevada County Population Projections 2013 to 2032 Based On The Last Estimate Year of 2012 Prepared By: The Nevada State Demographer s Office Jeff Hardcastle, AICP NV State Demographer University of NV

More information

Real Estate and Economic Outlook

Real Estate and Economic Outlook Real Estate and Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Presentation at Inforum Outlook Conference University of Maryland College Park, MD December 12, 2013

More information

Alternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group

Alternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group Alternative Measures of Economic Activity Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group High School Fed Challenge Student Orientation: February 1 and 2, 217 Outline Alternative indicators: data

More information

Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office

Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily

More information

What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy?

What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? Colorado Counties Inc. Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 28, 2017 Real GDP

More information

SA economic review Kevin Lings. August 2018

SA economic review Kevin Lings. August 2018 SA economic review Kevin Lings August 2018 South Africa real GDP growth year-on-year %y/y 8 7 6 5 Ave 4.3% 4 Ave 2.5% 3 2 Ave 0.9% 1 0-1 -2-3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview Logan Rotary Club June 28, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around Correction Territory

More information

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Zions Bank Economic Overview UAFS & NAIB Convention September 14, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 22,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source:

More information

Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research Economist November 16, 2018

Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research Economist November 16, 2018 Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research Economist November 16, 2018 joey.vonnessen@moore.sc.edu Post-WWII U.S. Economic Expansions by Length Date range of expansion (M/Y) 10/45-11/48 10/49-7/53 5/54-8/57 4/58/4/60

More information