National Housing Trends
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1 National Housing Trends
2 34% America s Choice of Best Long Term Investment 26% 17% 15% 6% Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds Gallup 2018
3
4 Housing Affordability 197 Index 1990 to Today Years when distressed properties dominated the market National Association of Realtors
5 1,400 1,200 1, Overbuilt during Housing Boom Residential New Construction The market needs more new homes! Underbuilt Housing need since the Bust Census Bureau
6 Upcoming Recession? Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicts a recession in 2020 Pulsenomics survey of economists and analysts predicts a recession in 2020 Recession Housing Crisis
7 When Will Next U.S. Recession Begin? 59% 48% Wall Street Journal survey of private-sector economists 24% 22% Pulsenomics survey of economists, investment strategists and real estate market analysts 14% 0% 4% 8% 8% 9% 4% 1% after 2022 Pulsenomics and WSJ
8 Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price CoreLogic
9 Average Days on the Market NAR
10 Seller Traffic NAR
11 Buyer Traffic NAR
12 Foot Traffic indicator of future sales January February March April May June July August September October November December NAR 7/2018
13
14 Historical Mortgage Rates Have Averaged Around 8%
15 Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three Q Q Q Q /2018
16 Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A Significant Difference In Home Affordability Amount Of Mortgage 3.5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 8% Mortgage 30-Year Cost $200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120 $300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360 $400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600 $500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480 $1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320
17 Greater Metro Atlanta Market September 2018 Report With Results Through August 2018
18 Metro Atlanta Homes Sold ,000 Homes Sold In ,000 Homes Sold In YTD Closings 2.2% Higher Than Pendings Up 4.6%.
19 Metro Atlanta Closings 9000 Prior Year Current Month August Closings Down 11.9% Compared To July Closings August 2018 Closings Down 7.1% Compared To August 2017 All 2018 Months Exceeded Prior Year Except March, June, August
20 Metro Atlanta Closings August 2018 (Number Of Transactions By Price) % Of Transactions In $100K-$500K Price Range < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-$1 mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil +
21 Metro Atlanta Closed Units By Price Point August 2018 Compared To August < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-$1 mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil +
22 Listed Inventory January 2012 August 2018 Residential Detached, Metro Atlanta Inventory Up 28% From Recent Bottom Of Feb Inventory Down.6% From Last Month, Down 3% Compared To Last Year
23 Months of Inventory Change The Market Strategy LESS THAN 6 MONTHS BETWEEN 6-7 MONTHS GREATER THAN 7 MONTHS SELLERS MARKET Home prices will appreciate NEUTRAL MARKET Home prices will only appreciate with inflation BUYERS MARKET Home prices will depreciate
24 Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (August 2018, Based On Closed Sales) Months Supply Is Considered Normal Market < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-1 Mil $1 Mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil + Total Metro Atlanta Months Of Inventory Is 3.1 Months
25 Metro Atlanta Monthly Average Sale Prices $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 ASP $313,000 In August. ASP $320,000 Last Month. Down 2.2% From Last Month. Up 7.6% From Last August.
26 Metro Atlanta Annual Average Sale Prices $261 $268 $209 $189 $190 $176 $183 $229 $250 $266 $276 $289 $ Annual ASP Up 75% From Bottom Of 2011
27 Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta Jan 2010 Through June 2018 (Reported August 28, 2018) Home Values Up 75% From Recent Bottom Of March 2012.
28 Case-Shiller Gain/ Loss For Metro Atlanta Comparisons Based On The Latest Case Shiller Index Compared To The Average Index For The Year Property Was Purchased. Year Property Bought Gain/ Loss Year Property Bought Gain/ Loss % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Case Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta - June 2018 As Reported August 28, Local Markets And Price Points May Have Significantly Different Outcomes.
29 Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta Recent Bottom Was March Metro Average Home Values Back To Normal Trend Line.
30 Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Georgia Properties
31 BHHS KW-AP ATL Comm HNR MB CB AFH YTD Closed Units August 2018 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent 8,620 8,043 5,318 3,812 3,774 3,233 2,756 Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.
32 BHHS KW-AP HNR AFH ATL Comm CB MB YTD Closed Volume August 2018 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent ($ Volume in Thousands) $2,812,365 $2,499,994 $1,777,530 $1,631,659 $1,438,115 $1,061,497 $894,030 Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.
33 Georgia Economic & Housing Trends
34 Top States For Business CNBC Survey
35 Buyers Moving To Atlanta! Here is the Top 10 List including previous rank: 1. Atlanta (1) 2. Phoenix (4) 3. Tampa/Sarasota (2) 4. Dallas/Fort Worth (3) 5. Orlando (5) 6. Denver (7) 7. Houston (8) 8. Seattle (6) 9. Las Vegas (10) 10.Chicago (9) Penske Truck Rental published their latest moving destination list and Atlanta was ranked #1 for the 6 th year in a row. The trend of moving to the sunbelt has returned. Desirable attributes that help Metro Atlanta include a business friendly environment, low cost of living for a metro area, airport, moderate weather with 4 seasons and a high quality of life.
36 Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close To Their Children & Grandchildren. Rank of Share Total Population Under Dallas 6,144, Atlanta 5,271, Phoenix 4,179, Denver 2,466, Riverside 4,081, Houston 5,629, Portland 2,174, Seattle 3,309, Sacramento 2,091, Washington 5,306,125 Metro 14 Atlanta 3 Has 23 The: Los Angeles 12,875, San Diego 2,974,859 #2 Population 8 14 Age San Francisco 4,203, Orlando 2,032, Minneapolis #5 Population Under 20 3,208, Chicago 9,522, New York 18,815, Boston 4,482, Cincinnati 2,134, Baltimore 2,668, Detroit 4,467, Philadelphia 5,827, St. Louis 2,802, Miami 5,413, Tampa 2,723, Cleveland 2,096, Source :Census Bureau Pittsburgh 2,355,
37 Rustbelt To Sunbelt
38 Population & Employment Growth Trends
39
40 Population & Employment Growth Trends U.S. Conference of Mayors Report predicts that Metro Atlanta will be the 6 th largest city in the nation by Metro Atlanta will grow from 5.8 million residents to 8.6 million residents. That means 2.8 million people will move to our area! This is great news for our long-term real estate values!
National Housing Trends
National Housing Trends 34% America s Choice of Best Long Term Investment 26% 17% 15% 6% Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds Gallup 2018 Housing Affordability 197 Index
More informationNational Housing Trends
National Housing Trends 34% America s Choice of Best Long Term Investment 26% 17% 15% 6% Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds Gallup 2018 Housing Affordability 197 Index
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