Romania nominal and real convergence on the way to euro adoption

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1 Romania nominal and real convergence on the way to euro adoption Ionut Dumitru President of the Fiscal Council and Chief-economist, Raiffeisen Bank Romania February 2015

2 Eurozone enlargement current status Initial target Date of setting the target Current target Bulgaria no target date Croatia 2019 no target date Czech Republic 2009/ no target date Hungary no target date Lithuania Poland 2008/ no target date Romania Denmark no target not obliged to join Sweden no target de facto opt-out United Kingdom no target not obliged to join Source: European Commission

3 I. Nominal convergence. Maastricht criteria

4 Nominal convergence: Maastricht criteria 1. Inflation the achievement of a high degree of price stability; a Member State has a price performance that is sustainable and an average rate of inflation, observed over a period of one year before the examination, that does not exceed by more than 1.5 percentage points that of, at most, the three best performing Member States in terms of price stability. 2. Long-term interest rate developments observed over a period of one year before the examination, a Member State has had an average nominal long-term interest rate that does not exceed by more than two percentage points that of, at most, the three best performing Member States in terms of price stability. Interest rates shall be measured on the basis of long-term government bonds or comparable securities 3. Public budget deficit is below 3.0% of GDP the sustainability of the government financial position will be apparent from having achieved a government budgetary position without a deficit that is excessive, i.e. that exceeds 3.0% of GDP on permanent basis 4. The ratio of government debt to GDP is less than 60% of GDP 5. Exchange rate stability under ERM II mechanism Member State has respected the normal fluctuation margins [+/-15%] provided for by the exchange rate mechanism on the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two years before the examination Source: European Commission

5 Sustainability of public financial position Public budget balance (% of GDP) Maastricht criteria: -3.0% of GDP Gross public debt (% of GDP) Maastricht criteria: 60% of GDP Romania's EU accession >>> -6-7 Romania's EU accession >>> : EDP in place F 2015F 2016F F 2015F 2016F Note: European Commission (Feb 2015) Source: European Commission

6 Inflation and long-term interest rates Assesment of Maastricht Criteria on inflation 10 Assesment of Maastricht Criteria on interest rates (10-year LCY yields) Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Maastricht reference criteria as computed by the ECB/EC Maastricht reference criteria - own estimates Annual inflation rate in Romania (% yoy, average 12-months) 10-year yield on RON T-bonds (%, average last 12 months) Maastricht reference criteria as computed by the ECB/EC Maastricht reference criteria - own estimates Note: Reference values for December 2014 (1.3% for inflation and 4.8% for 10Y LCY yields) were computed as averages for Spain, Portugal and Slovakia. Similar to the assessment performed by the ECB in April 2014, there were excluded from computations Greece, Bulgaria and Cyprus. Source: European Commission, European Central Bank

7 Achieving the inflation criterion is a difficult task 3.6 Average annual inflation rate (from Dec 2009 to Dec 2014) - 10 largest advances Level of consumer prices in 2013 (% of Euro area 15), 10 lowest levels EU 28 average = 1.8% RO EE HU UK FI AT LT MT LU PL Bulgaria Romania Poland Hungary Lithuania Croatia Czech Rep. Slovakia Latvia Estonia Note: level of consumer prices is computed based on household final consumption expenditure Source: Eurostat

8 II. Real convergence

9 Public policies make a difference 65 GDP per capita in PPS (% of average for Germany and France) Bulgaria Poland Hungary Romania Note: Estimates for the year 2014 Source: European Commission

10 Real convergence: not a one way street 140 GDP per capita in PPS (% of average for Germany and France) Italy Ireland Portugal Spain Greece Source: European Commission

11 Euro area enlargement: euro adopted recently only by small countries Euro adoption years: : Slovenia : Malta, Cyprus Malta Cyprus Estonia Latvia Slovenia Slovakia Romania Lithuania Bulgaria Hungary Czech Republic Poland Portugal Greece Spain 2009: Slovakia 2011: Estonia 2014: Latvia Stable population in 2013 (% of Euro area) Gross domestic Product in 2013 (% of Euro area) 2015: Lithuania Source: European Commission, Eurostat

12 Euro area enlargement: deep foreign trade integration for Euro area late comers 120 Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) Spain Portugal Greece Slovenia Cyprus Malta Slovakia Estonia Latvia Romania Lithuania Bulgaria Hungary Czech Republic Poland Exports towards EU member countries (% of GDP)* Total exports of goods and services in 2013 (% of GDP) Exports towards non EU member countries (% of GDP)* * computed in the year of Euro adoption for new Euro area member countries and in 2013 for non Euro area member countries Source: European Commission, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

13 Euro area enlargement: high GDP per capita at the moment of euro adoption GDP per capita in PPS as % of Germany+France in the year of accession in Euro area Spain Portugal Greece Slovenia Cyprus Malta Slovakia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

14 Real convergence in Romania by 2019: some scenarios GDP per capita at PPS (% yoy, average for period) Reference period Romania Germany+France GDP per capita at PPS in Romania (% of Germany+France) Scenarios for period GDP per capita in Romania in 2019 (% of Germany and France) 40 Scenario Scenario Scenario Real GDP should grow by at least 4% on average per year to be in Scenario Scenario 1: +3.0% pe year growth in GDP per capita at PPS Scenario 2: +4.5% pe year growth in GDP per capita at PPS Scenario 3: +6.0% pe year growth in GDP per capita at PPS Source: European Commission, Eurostat, own computation

15 III. Recent economic growth developments

16 A booming economy before the crisis Annual average GDP growth ( ) Annual growth rate for domestic demand (average ) GDP growth driven by domestic demand HU PL HR SI CZ BG RO EE SK LV LT GDP growth driven by exports EA EU 27 HU PL HR CZ BG EE SK RO LV LT Annual growth rate for real GDP (average ) Source: Eurostat

17 Scarce net inflows of foreign capital to private sector, slow recovery pace % per year % per year Net FDIs (% of GDP) e -6-9 Net loans, deposits (% of GDP) Total inflows of foreign capital in private sector (% of GDP) 02Q4 03Q4 04Q4 05Q4 06Q4 07Q4 08Q4 09Q4 10Q4 11Q4 12Q4 13Q4 Real GDP excluding agriculture (% yoy) 14Q4e Note: net inflows of foreign capital in the private sector; portfolio inflows excluded Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics

18 Less room to use indebtedness to leverage economic growth e GDP per capita at PPS in Romania (% of Germany+France) Gross external debt (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) Source: European Commission, Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

19 Pre-crisis imbalances had to be adjusted F F Public budget balance (ESA 2010, % of GDP) Structural public budget balance (% of GDP) Foreign trade balance, goods&services (% of GDP) Current account balance (% of GDP) Source: Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, European Commission,

20 Sharp contraction in domestic demand followed by a modest recovery 150 GDP and demand (2008=100) 140 Exports GDP excluding agriculture Private consumption Gross fixed capital formation e Source: National Institute of Statistics, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

21 Signs of revival in households spending Retail sales (deflated turnover, 2010=100) Consumer confidence index Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Non-foods, excluding fuels Fuels Foods Total retail sales Euro area CEE 4 countries Romania Note: 3-months moving averages Note: normalized levels (deviation from mean relative to standard deviation); 3-month moving averages Source: National Institute of Statisitcs, European Commission, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

22 Increasing volatility on the external markets 24 VIX index 3.0 Yields for US and German T-securities Feb-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Feb-14 Apr-14 May-14 US 5Y Germany 5Y Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 US 10Y Germany 10Y Feb-15 Source: Bloomberg, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

23 Deleveraging under way 40% Gross external debt, by sectors 25 Stock of banking loans, by sectors 35% 20 30% 25% 15 20% 10 15% 10% 5 5% 0% 04Q4 06Q4 08Q4 10Q4 12Q4 14Q4e Central bank and government (% of GDP) Banking system (% of GDP) Private non-banking sector (% of GDP) 0 04Q4 06Q4 08Q4 10Q4 12Q4 14Q4e Consumer loans (% of GDP) Housing loans (% of GDP) Banking loans for individuals (% of GDP) Banking loans for companies (% of GDP) Source: National Bank of Romania, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

24 Better prospects for GDP growth, but higher growth is strongly needed GDP growth in 2015 to be supported by: Improving activity on external markets Lower constrains stemming from the fiscal side Further progress in absorption of EU funds Low levels of RON and EUR lending rates Lower risk premium as a result of low macroeconomic imbalances Real GDP excluding agriculture (% yoy) Main risks and challenges 0 Risks stemming from politics have reduced but uncertainty on policies has preserved - increasing risks for fiscal slippages Potential increase in risk aversion of investors towards EM assets A bad agricultural year (increase in inflation rate, ROBOR rates and RON yields, lower GDP dynamics) E 2015E 2016E Source: National Institute of Statistics, Raiffeisen RESEARCH

25 Low level of competitiveness Note: Red lines denote scores for Romania Source: The Global Competitiveness report, World Economic Forum,

26 World Economic Forum World Competitiveness Report Ranking (out of 144 countries) WORST BEST Romania Bulgaria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovak Republic 7.05 Effect of taxation on incentives to work, 1-7 (best) Effect of taxation on incentives to invest, 1-7 (best) Country capacity to retain talent, 1-7 (best) Reliance on professional management, 1-7 (best) Cooperation in labor-employer relations, 1-7 (best) Quality of roads, 1-7 (best) Intensity of local competition, 1-7 (best) Prevalence of trade barriers, 1-7 (best) Wastefulness of government spending, 1-7 (best) Country capacity to attract talent, 1-7 (best) Favoritism in decisions of government officials, 1-7 (best) Primary education enrollment, net %* n/a 1.17 Ethical behavior of firms, 1-7 (best) Corporate ethics Internet access in schools, 1-7 (best) Fixed telephone lines/100 pop.* FDI and technology transfer, 1-7 (best) No. days to start a business* Strength of investor protection, 0 10 (best)* Domestic market size index, 1 7 (best)* Fixed broadband Internet subscriptions/100 pop.* No. procedures to start a business* Quality of math and science education, 1-7 (best) Int l Internet bandwidth, kb/s per user* Legal rights index, 0 10 (best)* Redundancy costs, weeks of salary* Source: The Global Competitiveness report, World Economic Forum,

27 World Bank Doing Business Report Ranking (out of 189 countries) Ease of Doing Business Starting a Business Rank Dealing with Construction Permits Rank Time (days) Getting Electricity Rank Time (days) Cost (% of income per capita) Registerin g Property Getting Credit Protecting Minority Investors Rank Rank Rank Rank Payments (number per year) Paying Taxes Time (hours per year) Total tax rate (% profit) Trading Across Borders Enforcing Contracts Rank Rank Rank Resolving Insolvency Time (years) Recovery rate (cents on the dollar) Economy Rank United States Germany Poland Slovak Republic Bulgaria Czech Republic Romania Slovenia Hungary Source: World Bank Doing Business 2015 Report

28 World Bank Doing Business Report Paying taxes, ranking (out of 189 countries) Economy Rank Payments (number per year) Time (hours per year) Profit tax (%) Labor tax and contributions (%) Other taxes (%) Total tax rate (% profit) Ireland Denmark Bulgaria Switzerland Slovenia United Kingdom Europe & Central Asia Poland Netherlands Norway OECD high income Portugal Romania United States Hungary Czech Republic Slovak Republic Germany Source: World Bank Doing Business 2015 Report

29 Economic activity concentrated in a small number of counties Only 5 counties produce more than 40% of GDP. Nominal GDP per capita (2011, % of country average) SM MM SV BT > 150% BH SJ CJ BN NT IS (125%, 150%] TM AR HD AB SB MS BV HR CV BC VN VS GL (100%, 125%] CS GJ VL AG DB BZ PH BR TL (75%, 100%] MH DJ OT TR IF B GR IL CL CT (50%, 75%] <= 50% Source: National Institute of Statistics, Raiffeisen RESEARCH.

30 Large companies are concentrated even more Over 50% of large companies are located in 5 counties. Number of companies with net turnover above EUR 5 mn. (2012) SM MM SV BT > 250 BH SJ CJ BN NT IS (200, 250] AR MS HR BC VS (150, 200] TM HD AB SB BV CV VN GL (100, 150] CS MH GJ DJ VL OT AG TR DB BZ PH BR TL IL IF B CL CT GR (50, 100] <= 50 Source: Ministry of Finance, Raiffeisen RESEARCH.