2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End?
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1 2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? Advantage Bank Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 15 th, 2018
2 Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Percent Change, SAAR Average Average Average Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.
3 Economic Growth Percent Change Year-over-Year Quarterly SAAR Year Personal Consumption Expenditures Fixed Business Investment Percent Change Government Spending Net Exports Exports Imports -30 Year -20 Year Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.
4 Economic Growth Percent Change Personal Consumption Expenditures Year-over-Year Quarterly SAAR Q Q Q Q Government Spending Fixed Business Investment 7 6 Net Exports Imports YoY Exports YoY Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.
5 Recession 8 Months National Employment Month-over-Month Change, 12-Month Average Thousands, Month-over- Month, 12-Mo Average Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Moody s Analytics, and NBER.
6 Employment Growth by State Year-over-Year September had a 1%-0% decline 6 had 0%-1% growth 27 had 1%-2% growth 11 had 2%-3% growth 5 had > 3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
7 Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force Average U-6 U Average U-3 U-3 7.4% 3.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
8 Wage Growth Year-Over-Year Percent Change Year-over-Year 12-Month Average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES, Average hourly earnings of all employees, total private, not seasonally adjusted.
9 Per Capita Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Top 10 District of Columbia Connecticut Massachusetts New York New Jersey Maryland California New Hampshire Wyoming Washington
10 Per Capita Personal Income Growth 1-Year Top 10 New York Wyoming Illinois West Virginia Utah Washington New Hampshire Colorado Maine Texas Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
11 U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Change 5.0 Real Disposable Income Percent Change 4.0 Real Personal Consumption % % 2.4% Source: Consensus Forecasts.
12 Household Wealth Q Q $ Trillions Other Assets Mutual Funds Corporate Equities 20 Real Estate Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
13 Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR 13.5 FOR Debt Service Ratio (L) Financial Obligations Ratio (R) Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.
14 Index of Consumer Confidence 1985=100 Recession 8 months 160 Mountain Region 140 Recession 18 months United States Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.
15 Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Thousands, SAAR 25,000 Vehicle Sales Retail and Food Services Sales Annual Percent Change 10.0% 20, % 15, % 10, % 5, % % Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
16 Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment Percent Change Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits Percent Change Business Fixed Investment % 4.7% % 4.5% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.
17 ISM Indices ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
18 Home Price Growth by State Year over Year Q All 50 states grew in Q2 31 had 5%+ growth 4 had 10%+ growth 0 states posted losses Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.
19 National Housing Starts Millions Source: Consensus Forecasts.
20 Federal Budget Balance $ Billions ,000-1,200 -$823 -$1022-1,400-1, Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.
21 U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index and Real Net Exports U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index 1973= $ Billions 0 Real Net Exports $896 -$ Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Consensus Forecasts.
22 Money, Interest Rates, Credit, and Prices
23 Interest Rates Percent Year Conventional Year T-Note 3-Month T-Bill Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody s.
24 Mortgage Rates (Forecast) Percent Year Fixed Mortgage 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Year Treasury Rate Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve, Moody s Analytics.
25 The FED $ in Millions 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Federal Agency Debt Securities Treasury Securities Mortgage Backed Securities Other Assets 0-1,000,000-2,000,000 Deposits -3,000,000 Reserve Notes Outstanding, Net Holdings -4,000,000 Other Liabilities -5,000, Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, H.4.1 Statistical Release.
26 Total Debt Balance and its Composition Percent Mortgage HE Revolving Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan Other (2.9%) (10.6%) (6.2%) (9.3%) (3.2%) (67.7%) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax,
27 National Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change Shelter All items All items less food and energy Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI), (SA).
28 Colorado Economy
29 Colorado Change in Population Thousands 140, ,000 Colorado s population increases 77,000 in ,000 in ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Net Migration Natural Increase 8th-fastest state for percentage growth 8th-fastest state for absolute growth 88% of growth along Front Range Continued net migration into the state Sources: Colorado Demography Office, U.S. Census Bureau, and Business Research Division.
30 Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added Thousands , Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
31 Colorado Labor Force Labor Force (Thousands) 3,500 LFPR (Percent) 76% 3,000 Labor Force Participation Rate 74% 2,500 2,000 Labor Force 72% 70% LFPR on the Rise 66.6% Aug % September ,500 68% 4 th highest nationally 1,000 66% Colorado peak=74.5% (1998) % % Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
32 Colorado LFPR State Ranking December July 2018 Rank, 12-Month Average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Notes: Colorado ranked 6 th in July 2018 based on the 12-month average, and 4 th in July alone.
33 Colorado Employment Change September 2018 Year-over-Year Employment in Thousands 2,750 2,740 2,730 2,720 2,710 2,700 2,690 2,680 2,670 2,660 2,650 2,640 Leisure and Hospitality Professional and Business Services 2017 Government Construction Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (SA). Financial ActivitiesManufacturing Information Other Services Mining and Education and Logging 2018 Health Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Total jobs gained: 77,700
34 Top vs. Bottom States Jobs Added in 2018 and 2019 Forecast (1T) Utah (1T) Nevada (3) Idaho (4) Washington (5) Texas (6) Colorado (46) Maryland (47) Kentucky (48) North Dakota (49) Vermont (50) Alaska % 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% (1) Nevada (2) Florida (3) Arizona (4) Texas (5) Oregon (6) Utah (7) Colorado (46T) West Virginia (46T) Michigan (48) Louisiana (49) Vermont (50) Alaska % 1% 2% 3% 4% Sources: Moody s Analytics and Economy.com.
35 Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment Employment Growth Rate September 2018 YoY Colorado Springs Greeley Fort Collins- Loveland Denver-Aurora- Broomfield Grand Junction Boulder Pueblo Colorado 2.9% Percent Colorado Springs Greeley Fort Collins- Loveland Denver-Aurora- Broomfield Grand Junction Unemployment Rate September 2018 YoY Colorado SA 3.1% NSA 3.1% Boulder Pueblo Percent Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
36 Employment In Current Decade National, State, and Local Percent Greeley Ft. Collins-Loveland Denver Colorado Boulder Colorado Springs National Pueblo Grand Junction Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
37 Natural Resources and Mining
38 WTI Oil Price Forecast September 2018 Dollars per Barrel $ $ $80.00 WTI Spot Price EIA Forecast Moody's Baseline Forecast Upper CI Lower CI $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $ Source: Energy Information Association (EIA), SPEO, Cushing, OK WTI; Moody s Analytics.
39 Value of Natural Resources $ Millions $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $14 Coal Minerals CO2 Natural Gas Crude Oil $ Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
40 Colorado Energy Rankings 7 th Total Energy th for Crude Oil th for Natural Gas th for Coal th for Solar th for Wind th for Total Energy Consumed per Capita (2016) Sources: Energy Information Administration. Note: Wind and solar based on electricity production.
41 Construction Photo Courtesy
42 Colorado New Housing Units and Households Annual Change 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Housing Units ,895 more housing units than households ,409 more households than housing units ,874 more housing units than households 20,000 10,000 Households Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office.
43 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA Q Q Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA CAGR Q Q Colorado 9.5% Colorado 5.6% Colorado Springs Pueblo Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Greeley Grand Junction Boulder Fort Collins Colorado Springs Pueblo Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Greeley Grand Junction Boulder Fort Collins 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.
44 Colorado Residential Building Permits 1996 YTD September ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Multifamily Single Family 20,000 10, Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Sept 2017 YTD Sept 2018 YTD
45 Value of Construction Colorado YTD September 2018 $ Millions 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Nonbuilding Nonresidential Residential 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: Dodge Data & Analytics. Sept 2017 YTD Sept 2018 YTD
46 Retail Trade Sales Total and Percentage Change Retail Sales Taxes $ Millions, 12-Month Rolling Sum $3,500 General Fund Sales Taxes $3,000 Net Sales Taxes $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $ =100 Consumer Confidence Mountain United States $ Sources: Colorado Department of Revenue and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.
47 Colorado General Fund $ Millions $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 Other $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Individual and Corporate Income Sales, Use, and Other Excise Fiscal Years Source: Colorado Office of the State Controller and the Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting (December 2017). Note: Excludes revenue transferred to the State Education Fund.
48 U.S. and Colorado Economies Q Q Index (50=Neutral) 75 National and State Expectations Colorado United States Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Business Research Division, Leeds Business Confidence Index.
49 Employment and New Entity Filings Employment, thousands 2, month total new entity filings 130,000 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 Employment New Entity Filings 120, , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 2, ,000 Note: Solid line displays actual seasonally adjusted employment numbers; dotted line reflects calculated forecasts. Source: Seasonally adjusted. Colorado total nonfarm employees from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES), calculations by BRD research team.
50 Colorado Ranking Among Other States Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth Employment Growth Population Growth Personal Income Growth PCPI Growth NA PCPI Average Annual Pay % Growth Average Annual Pay Unemployment Rate Labor Force % Growth FHFA Home Price Index Growth Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Q2 2018), Bureau of Labor Statistics (9/18), U.S. Census Bureau (2017), Colorado State Demography Office (9/18), Federal Housing Finance Agency Purchase Only Index (Q2 2018), BRD calculations. Notes: Most current data available; based on the compound annual growth rate.
51 What if Colorado Grew like the Nation? Actual vs. Hypothetical Growth Since June 2009 Metric Real GDP (Last 4 Quarter Total) Population ( ) Employment (Last 12 Month Average) Total Wages (Last 4 Quarter Total) Home Prices (March 2018) Difference Between Actual and Hypothetical Values $34.0B 323, ,000 $10.2B $96,000 Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, Colorado Department of Local Affairs, Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES), Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW), Zillow Home Value Index.
52 Summary Growing population Tight Labor Market/Full employment Boost in income Affordable Housing Infrastructure Trade Policy Immigration Policy
53 Northern Colorado
54 Non-Ag Employment Greeley and Fort Collins MSAs Thousands Months 40 Months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES (SA).
55 Total Wages Greeley and Fort Collins MSAs, 4Q Rolling Sum $ Millions $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $0 Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.
56 Average Wages Greeley and Fort Collins MSAs, 4Q Rolling Average 4Q Rolling Average $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.
57 2017 Average Annual Wages Front Range Dollars $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $50,236 $49,008 Colorado: $54,914 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
58 1-Year Industry Employment Change Greeley and Fort Collins, 1-Year Change, September 2018 Mining, Logging, and Construction Government Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Manufacturing Other Services Information Financial Activities -1,500-1, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES (NSA).
59 10-Year Industry Employment Change Greeley and Fort Collins, 10-Year Change, September 2018 Government Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Leisure and Hospitality Mining, Logging, and Construction Professional and Business Services Manufacturing Education and Health Services Other Services Financial Activities Information -8,000-4, ,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES (NSA).
60 Single Family v. Multifamily Permits Fort Collins-Loveland and Greeley MSAs, Year-to-Date through September ,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Single Family Multifamily Source: U.S. Census Bureau. YTD 2017 YTD 2018
61 Thank You!
62 Population Change Population Total Weld County Larimer County Denver MSA Colorado 200 United States Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, State Demography Office.
63 Population Change Larimer and Weld Counties, Population Change 25,000 20,000 Net Migration Natural Increase 15,000 10,000 5, Source: Colorado Demography Office.
64 Real Gross Domestic Product Fort Collins-Loveland and Greeley MSAs Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars $30,000 Percentage Change 7.0% $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 Fort Collins-Loveland MSA Combined Area Percent Change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% $5,000 $0 Greeley MSA % 0.0% -1.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
65 Real GDP Growth by Industry Fort Collins and Greeley MSAs, 2017 Manufacturing Mining Professional and Business Services Wholesale Construction Retail Education and Health Transportation and Warehousing Leisure and Hospitality Government Other Services Information Utilities Finance Agriculture Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars
66 Proprietor and Employment Growth Indexed Growth, Indexed, 1969= Larimer and Weld Colorado U.S Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research.
67 Jobs Added, 1 Year Larimer and Weld Counties Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality State Professional and Business Services Mining, Logging, and Construction Information Federal Local Other Services Financial Activities Manufacturing Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Thousands Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, QCEW.
68 Employment Comparison Larimer and Weld Counties v. Colorado, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2% 2% 1% 4% 11% 9% 7% 1% 8% 7% 7% 13% 11% 10% 12% 3% 14% 8% 13% 10% 14% 10% 9% 15% 35% 34% 21% Colorado Larimer Weld All Other Mining Information Manufacturing Construction Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Accommodations & Food Retail Healthcare Government Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, QCEW.
69 Government Manufacturing Construction Accomm. and Food Real Estate Retail Arts and Ent. Admin and Waste Other Professional Wholesale Healthcare Information Transportation and Warehouse Finance Management of Companies Utilities Private Private Education Agriculture Mining Industry Location Quotients Larimer and Weld Counties compared to the U.S. Location Quotient Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
70 Larimer and Weld Covered Employment Jobs 300, ,000 5-Year Growth: 45,600 New Jobs; + 21% 200, , ,000 50, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
71 Larimer and Weld Wages Annual (4Q Rolling) $ Millions $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 5-Year Average Growth: 8% $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.
72 Larimer and Weld Counties Average Wages Annual Rate (4Q) Average Annual Pay $60,000 $50,000 5-Year Average Growth: 25.2% $53,716 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.
73 Northern Colorado Ranking Among MSAs Greeley MSA Fort Collins-Loveland MSA Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth Employment Growth Population Growth Personal Income Growth PCPI Growth PCPI Unemployment Rate Labor Force % Growth FHFA Home Price Index Growth
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