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1 East Bay Financial Planners Association Conference Is The New Normal Here to Stay? January 10, 2018 Rich Taylor Vice President Client Portfolio Manager
2 Percent Change (%) Subpar Economic Growth Real GDP Real GDP YoY Data from 12/31/1986 to 9/30/2017 2
3 Percent Change (YoY %) Tame Inflation Inflation Headline CPI Data from 12/31/1986 to 9/30/2017 Core CPI 3
4 Percent Change (YoY %) Fed s Focus Inflation Fed s Inflation Target: 2% Core PCE Data from 12/31/1986 to 9/30/2017 4
5 Yield (%) U.S. Treasury Yields Remain Stubbornly Low U.S. Treasury Yields Year Maturity Data from 12/31/1986 to 9/30/ Year Maturity 5
6 Yield to Worst (%) Corporate Bond Yields Remain Stubbornly Low Corporate Bond Yields U.S. IG Credit Data from 1/31/1994 to 9/30/2017 U.S. HY Credit 6
7 MoM Change (thousands) Employment Picture Looks Bright, Right? U.S. Employment Unemployment Rate (%) Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls (LHS) Data from 12/31/1986 to 9/30/2017 U3 - Unemployment Rate (RHS) 0 7
8 Participation Rate (%) Fully Employed Economy? Labor Force Participation and Underemployment Underemployment Rate (%) Labor Force Participation Rate (LHS) U6 - Underemployment Rate (RHS) Data from 1/31/1994 to 9/30/2017 8
9 Percent Change (YoY %) Then Why Is Wage Growth Still Anemic? Wages Avg Hourly Earnings Private NFP Prod. & Non-Super. Avg Hourly Earnings, All Private Employees Employment Cost Index Data from 3/31/2001 to 9/30/2017 9
10 Percent Change (YoY, %) Growth and Wages: Chicken or the Egg? GDP Growth and Wages Percent Change (YoY, %) Average Hourly Earnings Real GDP (RHS) -6.0 Data from 12/31/1986 to 9/30/
11 Spread (bps) Crystal Ball or Fake News? Treasury Yield Curve Steepness yr TSY yield vs. 2-yr TSY yield spread Data from 12/31/1986 to 9/30/
12 Target Rate (%) Is Fed Tightening or Renormalizing Rates? Fed Funds Target Rate Fed Funds Target Rate Data from 12/31/1986 to 9/30/
13 Macroeconomic Outlook 4 Global Economy U.S. Economy Inflation Monetary Policy Interest Rates Global growth to remain modest, synchronized European growth improving Expansion robust for emerging markets Continued moderate growth U.S. tax reform to lift growth marginally Low volatility moderate growth environment will remain for extended period Global inflation to moderately increase but remain muted overall Barriers to higher inflation U.S. inflation stabilizes, remains weak in Eurozone, climbing in U.K. Most central banks still accommodative Fed normalization continues; status quo with new Fed Chairman Stimulus slowing in Europe, U.K. Rates stay low globally; higher in U.S. than in other developed markets U.S. rates remain range bound, rise slowly Rate disparity still a factor Views as of 12/31/2017. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and along with other portfolio data, are subject to change without notice. Source: American Century Investments 13
14 Fixed Income Allocation in Typical Moderate Risk Portfolio Typical Allocation for Moderate Asset Allocation Portfolio 4% Typical Fixed Income Allocation for Moderate Asset Allocation Portfolio 6% 16% 64% 32% 6% 45% 3% Bonds Stocks Cash Data as of 12/4/2017 Source: American Century Investments 16% 8% High Quality Bond High Yield Bond Inflation-Adjusted Bond Short Duration Inflation-Prot Bond International Developed Mkt Bond Global Hedged Bond Emerging Markets Bond 14
15 Potential Impact of New Tax Reform Bill on Municipal Market Elimination of Tax-Exempt Advance Refundings Elimination of Tax-Exempt Private Activity Bonds (PABs) Elimination of SALT/Property Taxes Deductibility from Federal Taxes Corporate Tax Rate Reduction Elimination of Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) 15
16 American Century Investments Performance Focused for Nearly 60 Years Pure-Play Business Model Privately Controlled and Independent Prosper With Purpose Managing Money, Making an Impact American Century Investments is a leading asset manager focused on delivering investment results and building long-term client relationships while supporting research that can improve human health and save lives. It s how we and our clients together Prosper With Purpose. Every day, people focus on making the world a better place for themselves, their families and their organizations. It is possible to live a more meaningful and impactful life and give back something that s more valuable than money. When you invest with us, you can also invest in the future of others and have the potential to impact the lives of millions. That s possible because of the distinct relationship with the Stowers Institute for Medical Research, which owns more than 40% of American Century Investments. Our dividend payments provide ongoing financial support for the Institute s work of uncovering the causes, treatments and prevention of life-threatening diseases, like cancer American Century Proprietary Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. The contents of this American Century Investments presentation are protected by applicable copyright and trademark laws. No permission is granted to copy, redistribute, modify, post or frame any text, graphics, images, trademarks, designs or logos. 16
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