USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

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1 USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 3 rd Ukrainian Grain Congress 2012 Edward W. Allen U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service ewallen@ers.usda.gov

2 U.S. Producer Prices Are High U.S. $/bushel Monthly Prices Recieved Wheat Soybean Corn Source: NASS, USDA

3 Key Drivers of USDA Projections Several years of sustained high prices U.S. corn and soybean yields devastated by drought in 2012 U.S. corn use for ethanol prospects flat China s import demand uncertain, but internal prices are high. South America s 2011/12 output and 2012/13 prospects shape 2012/13 U.S. and Ukrainian export demand. World wheat supplies remain tight. Economic Research Service

4 World Corn Production and Consumption Million tons 850 Production Consumption / /06 Year 2008/ /12

5 U.S. Corn Area Up, Yields Fall For 3 Years 1000 acres Corn area harvested (left axis) Yield (right axis) bushels/acre / / / / / / / / Source: NASS, USDA

6 U.S. Corn Areas Experiencing Drought

7 Mt./ha. 11 U.S. Corn Yields Actual yields Trend June WASDE July WASDE October Survey F -WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 12, July 11, and August 10, 2012.

8 U.S. Ethanol: Corn Use to Decline Significantly Billion bushels / / / / /11 Crop year Economic Research Service

9 Billion gallons 155 U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption Actual EIA AEO Dec EIA AEO Jan EIA STEO Feb bil. gal bil. gal F 2014F 2016F Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

10 World Corn Area Expanding 175 Million hectares World Corn Area Harvested / / / / / / /2012 Year

11 Argentina: Corn Production Increases Slowly Million tons Production (left axis) Area (right axis) Million hectares / / / / / / / /13

12 Ukraine: Corn Production Skyrockets Million tons Production (left axis) Area (right axis) Million hectares / / / / / / / /13

13 Brazil: Corn Production Grows Million tons Production (left axis) Area (right axis) Million hectares / / / / / / / /13

14 Corn Production (Million tons) Second Season Corn Increases in Brazil First-Season Second-Season Data Source: IBGE- Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística and 2011/12 is from CONAB

15 Second Tier Corn Exporters Expand Mil. tons South Africa Brazil Ukraine Argentina /87 89/ /93 95/96 98/ /02 04/05 07/08 10/11, Foreign Agricultural Service, Grain: Word Markets and Trade (Grain Circular).

16 China s Soybean Import Growth Leads World Million tons Soybean Imports Corn Imports 1997/ / / / / /13 Economic Research Service

17 China: Data Issues Increase Uncertainty, Corn and Soymeal Feed Use Do Not Track Well With Swine Production Corn Soymeal Swine meat Million tons / / / / / /2002 Soybean Meal 2006/ /12

18 U.S. Soybean Production Takes a Backseat, Drought Hits Brazil and Argentina in 2011/12, Then U.S. Million tonnes U.S / / / / / / / / /12

19 World Wheat Production and Consumption Million tons Production Consumption / / / / / / / / /12

20 Million tonnes World Wheat Stocks To Decline Some Rest of the World United States China 0

21 Russia s Wheat Yields Highly Variable Tons per hectare Russia CV=.181 United States CV= / / / / / / / / / / / / /12

22 Key Developments To Watch The reaction of poultry and pork producers to high feed costs. Soybean and corn crops currently being planted in South America, China s soybean and corn import growth, Northern Hemisphere winter wheat seedings, Economic Research Service

23 Related reports on the ERS web site Wheat Outlook (monthly) Feed Outlook (monthly) Oil Crops Outlook (monthly) Long-term projections /2009 world economic crisis commodity price spike U.S. ethanol expansion Economic Research Service

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