Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research Economist November 16, 2018
|
|
- Jacob Crawford
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research Economist November 16, 2018
2 Post-WWII U.S. Economic Expansions by Length Date range of expansion (M/Y) 10/45-11/48 10/49-7/53 5/54-8/57 4/58/4/60 2/61-12/69 11/70-11/73 3/75-1/80 12/82-6/90 3/91-3/01 11/01-12/07 6/ s 1990s Current Months Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
3 Dow Jones Industrial Average Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
4 Both the U.S. and S.C. economies are strong and stable overall
5 U.S. GDP Growth (Annualized) 6.0% 5.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% q110 q310 q111 q311 q112 q312 q113 q313 q114 q314 q115 q315 q116 q316 q117 q317 q118 q318 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
6 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Year/Year Change, in Billions $600.0 $500.0 $400.0 $300.0 $200.0 $100.0 $0.0 -$100.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
7 $300.0 Real Private Non-Residential Fixed Domestic Investment Year/Year Change, in Billions $250.0 $200.0 $150.0 $100.0 $50.0 $0.0 -$50.0 q111 q211 q311 q411 q112 q212 q312 q412 q113 q213 q313 q413 q114 q214 q314 q414 q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417 q118 q218 q318 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
8 Real Net Exports Year/Year Change, in Billions q111 q211 q311 q411 q112 q212 q312 q412 q113 q213 q313 q413 q114 q214 q314 q414 q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417 q118 q218 q318 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
9 Keep your eye on the fundamentals... GDP = C + I + G + NX Which growth trend will dominate? Private Investment vs. Net Exports in 2019
10 Who are the beneficiaries of this expansion?
11 Pct. Job Creation Among Firms with Less than 100 Employees 68.1% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% % Small businesses are creating relatively fewer jobs in the current expansion period Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; QCEW
12 Annual Employment Growth by Firm Size: % 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.9% Less than 100 employees 100+ employees Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; QCEW
13 120.0 U.S. Consumer Sentiment Source: University of Michigan
14 Labor Force Participation All Ages Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
15 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate Less 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
16 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
17 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (Yr/Yr Pct. Change) 150.0% 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% -50.0% % Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
18 What about South Carolina?
19 Demographic Changes in the U.S. and South Carolina
20 South s Share of Population Growth is Increasing Years US Population Growth South s Population Growth South s Share of Population Growth ,974,129 8,468,303 27% ,123,128 9,339,455 33% ,886,128 15,598,279 30% ,497,947 22,650,563 50% ,035,665 29,104,814 49% ,961,073 8,638,224 54% Source: US Census, Annual Population Estimates & James H. Johnson
21 Population is Moving South and West Midwest +0.3% Northeast +0.2% West +1.0% South +1.0% Source: US Census, Annual Population Estimates
22 Economic Development and Population Growth Cycle Right to work states, lower wages, lower costs of business, access to ports Shift of manufacturing employment Increased demand for transportation and support operations Additional employment and population gains Additional need for transportation and support functions
23 Population Drivers Driving force behind decisions to move: Search for jobs More affordable housing Baby Boomers seeking mild climate and lower cost of living
24 Population surpasses 5 million! +390,000 from 2010 to 2017 Source: US Census, Annual Population Estimates
25 Growth Accelerated Over Past 7 Years 5,100,000 5,000,000 4,900,000 4,800,000 4,700, % +1.0% +1.0% +1.2% +1.4% +1.4% +1.3% 4,600,000 4,500,000 4,400, Source: US Census, Annual Population Estimates
26 Population is Becoming More Urban
27 S.C. Population Growth Growth greater than state avg. Growth positive but less than state avg. Growth negative Oconee Pickens Greenville Anderson McCormick Spartanburg Laurens Abbeville Greenwood Edgefield Cherokee Union Newberry Saluda Aiken Allendale York Chester Fairfield 12.2 % Lexington Richland Barnwell Bamberg Hampton Lancaster Kershaw Calhoun Orangeburg Colleton Sumter Dorchester Chesterfield Lee Darlington Berkeley Charleston Marlboro Florence Clarendon Williamsburg Dillon Marion Horry Georgetown Source: US Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates Jasper Beaufort SC Annual Growth: +1.2%
28 Population vs. Employment Growth Metro Area Population Growth Employment Growth Charleston 14.0% 20.6% Columbia 6.2% 14.2% Florence 0.1% 9.8% Greenville 7.2% 15.6% Hilton Head/Beaufort 12.7% 17.7% Myrtle Beach 18.7% 15.7% Charlotte 11.3% 22.2% Augusta 5.0% 8.7% South Carolina 7.0% 14.6% Source: U.S. Census Population Estimates & LAUS NSA Employment ( )
29 Population is Becoming Older
30 Total Population Growth by Age Range: and over 65 to to to to to 14 Under % 36.1% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Median age in SC increased from 37.4 in 2010 to 38.8 in 2017 while the number of citizens over the age of 65 increased by 27.9% Source: US Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
31 Annual Population Growth by Age Range: Age Group Charleston Tri-County Region Statewide % +3.7% +1.3% % +3.3% +0.6% % +3.5% +2.2% % +6.3% +4.8% % +8.0% +6.3% % +5.3% +4.2% % +3.0% +2.5% % +3.6% +2.9% Source: US Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
32 In-Migration to Charleston, SC: Source: US Census Bureau
33 What do these trends imply for S.C. economic growth?
34 Transportation Occupations in S.C. Approximately 143,000 employed in Transportation and Material Moving occupations Does not include other support and peripheral functions such as: logistics, construction, engineering, and management Largest occupations within sector include: Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers (50,000) Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (26,500) Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers (13,400)
35 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Occupation Employment Growth 13.3% All Occupations 21.9% Transp. & Material Moving Transportation sector occupations have grown faster than the state s average occupation growth rate throughout the current expansion Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics, % Laborers 34.6% Heavy Truck Driving 15.7% Light Truck Driving
36 Putting South Carolina s Economy into Perspective
37 Stages of Economic Development Low-Cost Economy (Agriculture) Investment-Driven Economy (Capital Investment) Innovation-Driven Economy (Technology/Talent)
38 A Competitive Challenge Emerges in the 1980s Globalization trends begin to move manufacturing overseas millions of lost jobs across the U.S. After China joins the WTO in 2001, imports from China double within 4 years; Mexico took 12 years to achieve this same level of activity after NAFTA
39 U.S. Manufacturing Emp. (in thousands) 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 China joins the WTO 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW
40 360.0 S.C. Manufacturing Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW
41 S.C. Textile Manufacturing Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW
42 What Does S.C. Do Now? Learn the economic lessons of trade and creative destruction 42
43 U.S. Light Weight Vehicle Sales Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
44 North American Auto Assembly Source: Thomas Klier, Federal Reserve Bank, Chicago (2013)
45 Similar Histories Generate Similar Strategies Regensburg, Germany Spartanburg, South Carolina 45
46 What about South Carolina?
47 3.5% South Carolina Employment Growth 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% +1.3% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
48 S.C. Employment Growth 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2016/ /2018 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
49 S.C. Employment Growth 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2016/ /2018 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
50 S.C. Construction Markets
51 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Construction Emp. Growth vs. SC Average Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Construction South Carolina Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
52 S.C. Construction Emp. Growth Components 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Construction of Buildings Heavy and Civil Engineering Specialty Trade Contractors Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
53 Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Index U.S. Commerce Dept. Places Higher Import Tariffs on Canadian Lumber Index up 21% since January 2017
54 Housing Demand is Strong Sales Activity Permit Activity Inventory
55 Tradeoffs! Increasing builder costs vs. High demand due to steady employment & wage growth
56 15.0% FHFA House Price Index 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% q110 q210 q310 q410 q111 q211 q311 q411 q112 q212 q312 q412 q113 q213 q313 q413 q114 q214 q314 q414 q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417 q118 q218 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency South Carolina Charleston Columbia Gville/Spt. Hilton Head
57 E/P Ratio Employment (D) Permits (S) A Demand to Supply Ratio
58 Charleston Greenville Charlotte E/P Ratio Increases Columbia Source: U.S. BLS & U.S. Census Bureau
59 Total Employment Growth: % 27.3% 25.7% 25.0% 20.0% 16.6% 18.9% 17.1% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Charlotte Charleston Columbia Greenville South Carolina Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
60 How are tariffs affecting manufacturing in South Carolina? Short-run Increased production costs Lower demand (-1.9%) Long-run USMCA to replace NAFTA? Adjust global production strategies a possible benefit for South Carolina
61 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Growth in S.C. Employment Services Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17 Jan.'18 Jul.'18
62 S.C. Total Employment Growth (w/ Auto Losses) 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 2.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% (Annualized) 2017 Total 2018 Projected 2018 Projected (w/ 3,415 job loss) 2018 Projected (w/ 5,692 job loss) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Peterson Institute for International Economics
63 USMCA May Benefit the S.C. Automotive Sector 75% of a vehicle s value must be produced in North America 40% of a vehicle must be made by workers earning at least $16/hour We will allocate more U.S. production for the U.S. market Harald Kruger, BMW CEO Moving away from export-oriented manufacturing?
64 Unemployment Rates 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% US: 3.7% 8.0% SC: 3.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 SC US Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
65 4.0% Average Hourly Earnings of all U.S. Employees 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
66 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Annualized Growth in Employer Costs per Hour Worked ( ) 2.8% 2.6% 7.4% 10.7% 2.0% 0.0% Total Compensation Wages & Salaries Supplemental Pay Non-Productivity Bonuses Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
67 Spotlight on Millennials & igen
68 Total S.C. Population by Age 1,200,000 1,000, ,372 1,008, , , , , , , , ,000 0 < Source: American Community Survey
69 Average Daily Spending by U.S. Adults $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 $108 $110 $93 $95 $95 $74 $ $78 Source: Gallup; August 2017
70 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 S.C. vs. U.S. Student Loan Debt per Capita SC US Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
71 Average Homeownership by Age 30 Group Homeownership by Age 30 No College 22% Associate s Degree, Student Debt 24% Associate s Degree, No Student Debt 31% Bachelor s Degree or higher, Student Debt 33% Bachelor s Degree or higher, No Student Debt 40% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax & National Student Clearinghouse
72 The Bottom Line Strong national economic growth w/ steady employment and wage gains Tariffs Broad-based growth across most South Carolina sectors Labor shortages Consumer spending experiencing consistent growth Interest rates
73
SC NRCS Field Offices
SC s Abbeville County County Agricultural Building 394 Hwy 28 Bypass Abbeville, SC 29620 Tel: (864) 459-5419 Fax: (864) 459-4467 (Also serves McCormick County) Aiken County 1555 Richland Avenue East, Suite
More informationFirst Circuit Calhoun, Dorchester, and Orangeburg Counties Website:
First Circuit Calhoun, Dorchester, and Orangeburg Counties Website: https://scsolicitor1.org Calhoun County 120 Mill Street St. Matthews, SC 29135 Ph: 803.874.1978 Solicitor David M. Pascoe, Jr. P.O. Box
More informationA comment on recent events, and...
A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,
More informationEconomic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017
Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation
More informationThe Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies
The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers
More information2007 South Carolina. South Carolina department of natural resources. Submitted by Charles Ruth; Project Supervisor
2007 South Carolina TURKEY Harvest Report South Carolina department of natural resources TURKEY research & management project Submitted by Charles Ruth; Project Supervisor INTRODUCTION Ranking only behind
More informationEconomy On The Rebound
Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Executive
More informationState of American Trucking
State of American Trucking October 11, 2018 Rod Suarez Economic Analyst American Trucking Associations rsuarez@trucking.org Business Cycles U.S. Expansions Duration October 1949 - July 1953 May 1954 -
More informationPresident and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics
The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.
More information2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
More information2010 SOUTH CAROLINA TURKEY HARVEST REPORT SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES TURKEY RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT PROJECT
2010 SOUTH CAROLINA TURKEY HARVEST REPORT SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES TURKEY RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT PROJECT Submitted by Charles Ruth; Deer & Wild Turkey Program Coordinator INTRODUCTION
More informationSouth Carolina Pedestrian and Bicycle Crash Analysis
South Carolina Pedestrian and Bicycle Crash Analysis 2009-2017 Submitted to: Palmetto Cycling Coalition Submitted by: Equitable Cities, LLC 1 I. Introduction In summer of 2018, Equitable Cities LLC undertook
More informationHouston and Tomball Economic and. Housing Outlook. recenter.tamu.edu. Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist
Houston and Tomball Economic and Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist Housing Outlook recenter.tamu.edu THE CURRENT SITUATION The Future Just Ain t What It Used to Be! Yogi Berra National Economic Recovery
More informationZions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview Kenworth National Dealers Conference November 8, 2018 1 National Economic Conditions 2 Volatility Returns to the Stock Market 27,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average October 10,
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and
More informationHow Global Trade Is Driving Demand For Ports
How Global Trade Is Driving Demand For Ports 17 April, 2018 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Strategist JLL Ports Airports and Global Infrastructure JLL Ports Airports and Global Infrastructure Capital Markets
More informationThe Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global
More informationU.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business
U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks Presented by the Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado at Boulder U.S. Economic
More informationSouth Carolina Pedestrian and Bicycle Crash Analysis
South Carolina Pedestrian and Bicycle Crash Analysis 2009-2017 Submitted to: Palmetto Cycling Coalition and the South Carolina Livable Communities Alliance Submitted by: Equitable Cities, LLC 1 I. Introduction
More informationDr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu
Texas Uncertain Economy in a World of Uncertain Oil Prices Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu National Economic Recovery still Going 2 U.S. Outlook Expected GDP growth still modest:
More informationUS Economic Activity
US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. US Economic Activity
More informationMore of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?
More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017 Real GDP
More informationU.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013
U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area
More informationCanadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
More informationCurves On The Road Ahead
Curves On The Road Ahead Light Vehicle Market Outlook November 2018 Charles Chesbrough Senior Economist A g e n d a Economic Outlook and New Vehicle Sales Affordability Threat and the Used Vehicle Market
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update.
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update February 26, 2013 The Worst Recession Since the Great Depression 0% Loss from Peak
More informationMBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook
MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook MBA of Alabama Annual Conference June 7, 2017 Presented by Lynn Fisher Mortgage Bankers Association 1 Summary of the MBA Outlook 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP Growth
More informationDISTRICT & SCHOOL NAME NUMBER ENGLISH MATH READING SCIENCE COMPOSITE
ABBEVILLE ABBEVILLE HIGH SCHOOL 35 17.7 19.4 18.4 18.5 18.6 DIXIE HIGH SCHOOL 22 16.5 19.0 18.8 20.3 18.7 AIKEN AIKEN HIGH SCHOOL 133 20.3 21.5 21.5 20.8 21.1 AIKEN PERFORMING ARTS ACAD -- -- -- -- --
More information2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
More information2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
More informationBabson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014
Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic
More informationOPENING KEYNOTE SPEAKER
NIT LEAGUE TRANSPORTATION SUMMIT OPENING KEYNOTE SPEAKER Derek J. Leathers President and CEO Werner Enterprises Founded in 1956; grown from one-truck operation to a $2 billion company Among five largest
More informationWORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)
AUGUST 2018 WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 Labor Force Employment 1,152,626 1,116,938 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 2016 to 2017: 35957 (3.1%)
More informationnipigon.net Township of Nipigon 2018 Community Profile
nipigon.net Township of Nipigon V 1.0 February 2018 2018 Nipigon nipigon.net nipigon.net Township of Nipigon nipigon.net Township of Nipigon nipigon.net Township of Nipigon nipigon.net Township of Nipigon
More informationThe Party Is Over U.S. Automotive Outlooks
The Party Is Over U.S. Automotive Outlooks Yen Chen Senior Research Economist Center for Automotive Research Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook Symposium December 1, 2017 U.S. Light Vehicle
More informationFrom Recession to Recovery
From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific
More informationManufacturers Continue Capacity Expansion as Technology Orders Grow
Contact: Penny Brown, AMT, 703-827-5275 pbrown@amtonline.org For Release: October 8th, 2018 Manufacturers Continue Capacity Expansion as Technology Orders Grow Manufacturing technology orders posted an
More informationWORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)
AUGUST 2016 WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 950,000 900,000 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 Labor Force Employment June 2015 to June 2016: 36,504
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com
More informationNorthwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook
Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs 2019 Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook 1/10/2019 2 U.S. ECONOMY 1/10/2019 3 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
More informationDemographic Change in North Carolina
Demographic Change in North Carolina 5 Trends to Watch North Carolina Aggregates Association June 29, 2017 Rebecca Tippett, PhD Director, Carolina Demography July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina
More informationFuture Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013
1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible
More informationABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee
ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS
More informationSouthern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook
2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Sr. VP/Chief Economist, LAEDC February 17, 2016 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy
More informationWhat you should know, higher prices trade tensions, and the expanding economy September 11, 2018 Mark Schniepp Director
The 2018 Economy What you should know, higher prices trade tensions, and the expanding economy September 11, 2018 Mark Schniepp Director 1 The annual update Why are you here? (1) I m here for the update
More informationThe ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources
The ABA Advantage: Economic Issues Update & ABA Resources aba.com 1-800-BANKERS Meet the team Jim Chessen Chief Economist Curtis Dubay Senior Economist Brittany Kleinpaste Vice President of Economic Policy
More informationAlternative Measures of Economic Activity. Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group
Alternative Measures of Economic Activity Jan J. J. Groen, Officer Research and Statistics Group High School Fed Challenge Student Orientation: February 1 and 2, 217 Outline Alternative indicators: data
More informationZions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview Intermountain Credit Education League May 10, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around
More informationSpring Time for Housing
Spring Time for Housing Arizona State University December 2 nd, 2015 Presented By: Elliott D. Pollack CEO, IN PHOENIX 1 2 The World has Changed Pre-2007 Post-2007 3 Employment Growth From Bottom of Recession
More informationZions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview WIB Education Summit September 19, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow Breaks 22,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Federal
More informationMARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE. Matthew Marsh September 2016
MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE Matthew Marsh September 2016 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
More informationManufacturers continue capacity expansion as technology orders grow
Contact: Penny Brown, AMT, 703-827-5275 pbrown@amtonline.org For Release: September 10, 2018 Manufacturers continue capacity expansion as technology orders grow Manufacturing technology orders for July
More informationWHERE ARE ARIZONA DEMOGRAPHICS TAKING US? HOW GROWING SLOWER, OLDER AND MORE DIVERSE AFFECTS REAL ESTATE
WHERE ARE ARIZONA DEMOGRAPHICS TAKING US? HOW GROWING SLOWER, OLDER AND MORE DIVERSE AFFECTS REAL ESTATE March 2017 Tom Rex Office of the University Economist and Center for Competitiveness and Prosperity
More informationCurrent Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian
Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the
More informationU.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015
U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.)
More informationNational and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business
National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business October 24, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
The Building Industry Association Of Okaloosa-Walton Counties Economic Update and Outlook Rick Harper, PhD February 1, 2018 The Economic Outlook 3rd longest postwar expansion for U.S., marked 103 months
More informationModest fall in December Orders Offset by 19% Gain in Annual Total over 2017
For Immediate Release: February 11, 2019 REVISION Contact: Amber Thomas Director - Advocacy & Communications, AMT 571-216-7448 or athomas@amtonline.org Modest fall in December Orders Offset by 19% Gain
More informationTHIS AIN T THE 80s! And Houston isn t going anywhere.
THIS AIN T THE 80s! And Houston isn t going anywhere. EXPECTEDLY, A DRAMATIC DOWNTURN IN OIL, ONE THAT HAS RUN EVEN FASTER AND DEEPER THAN DURING 2008-2009, RAISED ALARM ABOUT THE STABILITY OF THE HOUSTON
More informationBig Changes, Unknown Impacts
Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth
More informationBriefing on the State of the State. presented to the. SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy
Briefing on the State of the State presented to the SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy Rae D. Rosen Assistant Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of New York November 16, 2006 Key Points: Economic
More informationSteel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert
Steel Market Outlook AM/NS Calvert Agenda Economic indicators Key steel consuming markets and forecasted demand Steel consumptions trends Global steel markets and raw materials Comments on trade 1 U.S.
More informationNC Demographic Trends Through 2035
NC Demographic Trends Through 2035 House Select Committee on Strategic Transportation Planning and Long Term Funding Solutions February 22, 2016 Rebecca Tippett, University of North Carolina July 1 Population
More information2017 Nebraska Profile
2017 Nebraska Profile State, 9 NEW Regions, 93 Counties, plus 31 Cities Three Volumes Demographic Change in the State Economic Influences at Work Housing Statistics and Trends Summary of Findings Discuss
More information2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014
2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC October 8, 2014 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy & Industries Five-Year Outlook
More informationNational and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference
National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully
More informationZions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview Veteran Owned Business Conference May 11, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around Correction
More information2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End?
2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? Advantage Bank Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 15 th, 2018
More informationEconomic & Financial Market Outlook
Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets
More informationJanuary 18, Dear Sir or Madam:
PO Box 21707 Columbia, SC 29221 (p) (803) 896-8800 (f) (803) 798-8097 www.trees.sc.gov Henry E. (Gene) Kodama, State Forester January 18, 2017 Dear Sir or Madam: Attached is the South Carolina BMP Courtesy
More informationCompetitiveness
North Carolina ted@econleadership.com Competitiveness NC Everyone has a plan till they get hit in the mouth Mike Tyson The Punch Job Change 1990 to 2012 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000
More informationThe US Economic Outlook
IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth
More informationEconomic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business
Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business January 3, 2019 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute
More information10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business
10 County Conference Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Hmm... (http://myfallsemester.blogspot.com) Real GDP Growth Percent
More informationKevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley
Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook Kevin Thorpe, Chief Economist 2012 Another Year Of Modest Improvement 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1
More informationThe Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya
The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension 2009 Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
More informationU.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18
U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 1 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 July 2018 Key Messages Sales remain resilient backed by robust economic growth Automakers continue to benefit from consumers favoring
More information2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
More informationMUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors
MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.
More informationWill 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services
Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Rising Uncertainty Creating Headwinds for Commercial Real Estate
More information2018 Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute VP, Division of Strategic Partnerships and
2018 Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute VP, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Towson University November 29, 2018 $19,000
More informationEconomic Outlook March Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real
More informationOld Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast. Strome College of Business
Old Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast January 25, 2017 Professor Vinod Agarwal Director, Economic Forecasting Project Strome College of Business www.odu.edu/forecasting The views expressed
More informationThe Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects
MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES The Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects WS (Bill) Cummings PRESENTATION TO Ref:
More informationSouthwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context. Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group
Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group State of the Metro Area (in January Each Year) Total Employment has slowly increased in the last three years after
More informationUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 11 th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT 15-16 April 2019, Geneva Saudi economic growth strategy on the face of oil price uncertainty
More informationThe Wisconsin and Minnesota Economies: What can we learn from each other? Noah Williams
The Economies: What can we learn from each other? Noah University of Wisconsin - Madison Future Wisconsin Summit 2016 Economies Location, size, demographics, and history make Wisconsin and Minnesota natural
More informationReading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond
Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President
More informationHow Much Wind Is in the Sails?
How Much Wind Is in the Sails? Erie Chamber of Commerce Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations September 20, 2017 Real GDP Growth
More informationEconomic Growth in the Trump Economy
Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Presented to State Data Center Conference William F. Fox, Director November 18, 2016 GDP Grows, Though Slowly 10.0 8.0 Percentage Change, Previous Qtr, SAAR 6.0 4.0
More informationWenlin Liu, Senior Economist. Stateof Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1
WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TREND LCCC LIFE Program April 7, 2012 Cheyenne, Wyoming Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist Economic Analysis Division Stateof Wyoming Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming
More informationDr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder
Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Member FDIC VectraBank.com Economic Outlook 2015 Richard
More informationThe U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)
More informationThe Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference
The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
More informationDr. James P. Gaines Research Economist. recenter.tamu.edu
Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu National Economic Recovery still Going 2 National Issues Expected GDP growth still modest: 2015 2.5%; personal consumption 2.5% Inflation not worrisome:
More informationROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN
ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Department Vol. XVIl, No.3 March 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02 Table
More informationROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN
ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.9 September 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02
More informationMONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION
OXYGEN EVENTS CONFERENCE GALA PERFORMANCE 2017 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION - THE CASE OF ROMANIA - Ph.D. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist, Banca Transilvania Researcher, Institute
More informationAnalyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist Disclaimer Disclaimer: The statements in this presentation do not represent the official views of the
More information