Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research Economist November 16, 2018

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1 Joseph Von Nessen, Ph.D. Research Economist November 16, 2018

2 Post-WWII U.S. Economic Expansions by Length Date range of expansion (M/Y) 10/45-11/48 10/49-7/53 5/54-8/57 4/58/4/60 2/61-12/69 11/70-11/73 3/75-1/80 12/82-6/90 3/91-3/01 11/01-12/07 6/ s 1990s Current Months Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

3 Dow Jones Industrial Average Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

4 Both the U.S. and S.C. economies are strong and stable overall

5 U.S. GDP Growth (Annualized) 6.0% 5.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% q110 q310 q111 q311 q112 q312 q113 q313 q114 q314 q115 q315 q116 q316 q117 q317 q118 q318 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

6 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Year/Year Change, in Billions $600.0 $500.0 $400.0 $300.0 $200.0 $100.0 $0.0 -$100.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

7 $300.0 Real Private Non-Residential Fixed Domestic Investment Year/Year Change, in Billions $250.0 $200.0 $150.0 $100.0 $50.0 $0.0 -$50.0 q111 q211 q311 q411 q112 q212 q312 q412 q113 q213 q313 q413 q114 q214 q314 q414 q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417 q118 q218 q318 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

8 Real Net Exports Year/Year Change, in Billions q111 q211 q311 q411 q112 q212 q312 q412 q113 q213 q313 q413 q114 q214 q314 q414 q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417 q118 q218 q318 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

9 Keep your eye on the fundamentals... GDP = C + I + G + NX Which growth trend will dominate? Private Investment vs. Net Exports in 2019

10 Who are the beneficiaries of this expansion?

11 Pct. Job Creation Among Firms with Less than 100 Employees 68.1% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% % Small businesses are creating relatively fewer jobs in the current expansion period Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; QCEW

12 Annual Employment Growth by Firm Size: % 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.9% Less than 100 employees 100+ employees Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; QCEW

13 120.0 U.S. Consumer Sentiment Source: University of Michigan

14 Labor Force Participation All Ages Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate Less 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

16 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

17 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (Yr/Yr Pct. Change) 150.0% 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% -50.0% % Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

18 What about South Carolina?

19 Demographic Changes in the U.S. and South Carolina

20 South s Share of Population Growth is Increasing Years US Population Growth South s Population Growth South s Share of Population Growth ,974,129 8,468,303 27% ,123,128 9,339,455 33% ,886,128 15,598,279 30% ,497,947 22,650,563 50% ,035,665 29,104,814 49% ,961,073 8,638,224 54% Source: US Census, Annual Population Estimates & James H. Johnson

21 Population is Moving South and West Midwest +0.3% Northeast +0.2% West +1.0% South +1.0% Source: US Census, Annual Population Estimates

22 Economic Development and Population Growth Cycle Right to work states, lower wages, lower costs of business, access to ports Shift of manufacturing employment Increased demand for transportation and support operations Additional employment and population gains Additional need for transportation and support functions

23 Population Drivers Driving force behind decisions to move: Search for jobs More affordable housing Baby Boomers seeking mild climate and lower cost of living

24 Population surpasses 5 million! +390,000 from 2010 to 2017 Source: US Census, Annual Population Estimates

25 Growth Accelerated Over Past 7 Years 5,100,000 5,000,000 4,900,000 4,800,000 4,700, % +1.0% +1.0% +1.2% +1.4% +1.4% +1.3% 4,600,000 4,500,000 4,400, Source: US Census, Annual Population Estimates

26 Population is Becoming More Urban

27 S.C. Population Growth Growth greater than state avg. Growth positive but less than state avg. Growth negative Oconee Pickens Greenville Anderson McCormick Spartanburg Laurens Abbeville Greenwood Edgefield Cherokee Union Newberry Saluda Aiken Allendale York Chester Fairfield 12.2 % Lexington Richland Barnwell Bamberg Hampton Lancaster Kershaw Calhoun Orangeburg Colleton Sumter Dorchester Chesterfield Lee Darlington Berkeley Charleston Marlboro Florence Clarendon Williamsburg Dillon Marion Horry Georgetown Source: US Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates Jasper Beaufort SC Annual Growth: +1.2%

28 Population vs. Employment Growth Metro Area Population Growth Employment Growth Charleston 14.0% 20.6% Columbia 6.2% 14.2% Florence 0.1% 9.8% Greenville 7.2% 15.6% Hilton Head/Beaufort 12.7% 17.7% Myrtle Beach 18.7% 15.7% Charlotte 11.3% 22.2% Augusta 5.0% 8.7% South Carolina 7.0% 14.6% Source: U.S. Census Population Estimates & LAUS NSA Employment ( )

29 Population is Becoming Older

30 Total Population Growth by Age Range: and over 65 to to to to to 14 Under % 36.1% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Median age in SC increased from 37.4 in 2010 to 38.8 in 2017 while the number of citizens over the age of 65 increased by 27.9% Source: US Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates

31 Annual Population Growth by Age Range: Age Group Charleston Tri-County Region Statewide % +3.7% +1.3% % +3.3% +0.6% % +3.5% +2.2% % +6.3% +4.8% % +8.0% +6.3% % +5.3% +4.2% % +3.0% +2.5% % +3.6% +2.9% Source: US Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates

32 In-Migration to Charleston, SC: Source: US Census Bureau

33 What do these trends imply for S.C. economic growth?

34 Transportation Occupations in S.C. Approximately 143,000 employed in Transportation and Material Moving occupations Does not include other support and peripheral functions such as: logistics, construction, engineering, and management Largest occupations within sector include: Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers (50,000) Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (26,500) Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers (13,400)

35 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Occupation Employment Growth 13.3% All Occupations 21.9% Transp. & Material Moving Transportation sector occupations have grown faster than the state s average occupation growth rate throughout the current expansion Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics, % Laborers 34.6% Heavy Truck Driving 15.7% Light Truck Driving

36 Putting South Carolina s Economy into Perspective

37 Stages of Economic Development Low-Cost Economy (Agriculture) Investment-Driven Economy (Capital Investment) Innovation-Driven Economy (Technology/Talent)

38 A Competitive Challenge Emerges in the 1980s Globalization trends begin to move manufacturing overseas millions of lost jobs across the U.S. After China joins the WTO in 2001, imports from China double within 4 years; Mexico took 12 years to achieve this same level of activity after NAFTA

39 U.S. Manufacturing Emp. (in thousands) 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 China joins the WTO 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW

40 360.0 S.C. Manufacturing Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW

41 S.C. Textile Manufacturing Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW

42 What Does S.C. Do Now? Learn the economic lessons of trade and creative destruction 42

43 U.S. Light Weight Vehicle Sales Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

44 North American Auto Assembly Source: Thomas Klier, Federal Reserve Bank, Chicago (2013)

45 Similar Histories Generate Similar Strategies Regensburg, Germany Spartanburg, South Carolina 45

46 What about South Carolina?

47 3.5% South Carolina Employment Growth 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% +1.3% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

48 S.C. Employment Growth 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2016/ /2018 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

49 S.C. Employment Growth 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 2016/ /2018 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

50 S.C. Construction Markets

51 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Construction Emp. Growth vs. SC Average Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Construction South Carolina Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

52 S.C. Construction Emp. Growth Components 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Construction of Buildings Heavy and Civil Engineering Specialty Trade Contractors Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

53 Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Index U.S. Commerce Dept. Places Higher Import Tariffs on Canadian Lumber Index up 21% since January 2017

54 Housing Demand is Strong Sales Activity Permit Activity Inventory

55 Tradeoffs! Increasing builder costs vs. High demand due to steady employment & wage growth

56 15.0% FHFA House Price Index 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% q110 q210 q310 q410 q111 q211 q311 q411 q112 q212 q312 q412 q113 q213 q313 q413 q114 q214 q314 q414 q115 q215 q315 q415 q116 q216 q316 q416 q117 q217 q317 q417 q118 q218 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency South Carolina Charleston Columbia Gville/Spt. Hilton Head

57 E/P Ratio Employment (D) Permits (S) A Demand to Supply Ratio

58 Charleston Greenville Charlotte E/P Ratio Increases Columbia Source: U.S. BLS & U.S. Census Bureau

59 Total Employment Growth: % 27.3% 25.7% 25.0% 20.0% 16.6% 18.9% 17.1% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Charlotte Charleston Columbia Greenville South Carolina Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

60 How are tariffs affecting manufacturing in South Carolina? Short-run Increased production costs Lower demand (-1.9%) Long-run USMCA to replace NAFTA? Adjust global production strategies a possible benefit for South Carolina

61 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Growth in S.C. Employment Services Jan.'15 Jul.'15 Jan.'16 Jul.'16 Jan.'17 Jul.'17 Jan.'18 Jul.'18

62 S.C. Total Employment Growth (w/ Auto Losses) 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 2.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% (Annualized) 2017 Total 2018 Projected 2018 Projected (w/ 3,415 job loss) 2018 Projected (w/ 5,692 job loss) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Peterson Institute for International Economics

63 USMCA May Benefit the S.C. Automotive Sector 75% of a vehicle s value must be produced in North America 40% of a vehicle must be made by workers earning at least $16/hour We will allocate more U.S. production for the U.S. market Harald Kruger, BMW CEO Moving away from export-oriented manufacturing?

64 Unemployment Rates 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% US: 3.7% 8.0% SC: 3.3% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 SC US Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

65 4.0% Average Hourly Earnings of all U.S. Employees 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

66 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Annualized Growth in Employer Costs per Hour Worked ( ) 2.8% 2.6% 7.4% 10.7% 2.0% 0.0% Total Compensation Wages & Salaries Supplemental Pay Non-Productivity Bonuses Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

67 Spotlight on Millennials & igen

68 Total S.C. Population by Age 1,200,000 1,000, ,372 1,008, , , , , , , , ,000 0 < Source: American Community Survey

69 Average Daily Spending by U.S. Adults $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 $108 $110 $93 $95 $95 $74 $ $78 Source: Gallup; August 2017

70 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 S.C. vs. U.S. Student Loan Debt per Capita SC US Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax

71 Average Homeownership by Age 30 Group Homeownership by Age 30 No College 22% Associate s Degree, Student Debt 24% Associate s Degree, No Student Debt 31% Bachelor s Degree or higher, Student Debt 33% Bachelor s Degree or higher, No Student Debt 40% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax & National Student Clearinghouse

72 The Bottom Line Strong national economic growth w/ steady employment and wage gains Tariffs Broad-based growth across most South Carolina sectors Labor shortages Consumer spending experiencing consistent growth Interest rates

73

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