How Travel Demand Has Been Changing. Susan Handy Asilomar 2015

Transcription

1 How Travel Demand Has Been Changing Susan Handy Asilomar 2015

2 Annual VMT per Capita in U.S. 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Census

3 Peak in VMT per capita by state Source: Garceau et. al., 2014

4 Commuting by car Source:

5 Registered vehicles per capita Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Transportation Statistics, Tables 4-11 and 4-12

6 It s the economy, right? 14,000 12,000 VMT vs. GDP 60,000 50,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - VMT per capita GDP per capita ($2009) ,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Source: Garceau et. al., 2014

7 Or other factors? Income Fuel prices Traffic congestion Aging population Regional migration Back-to-the city Smartphones Others

8 Another way to look at it How do we as individuals and households make choices about travel? How and why are these choices changing?

9 Nested choices Long-term Choices Lifestyle Residential Location Mid-term Choices Driver s license Auto ownership Short-term Choices Trip frequency Trip destination Mode choice

10 Choice process Set of choices available Drive alone Shared ride Bus Rail Bicycle Walk Skateboard Qualities of choices available Cost Time Comfort Safety Value placed on different qualities Cost vs. Time vs. Comfort vs. Safety Knowledge, perceptions

11 Changes in all cells Long-term Choices Mid-term Choices Short-term Choices Choice Sets Choice Qualities Value of Qualities

12 Changes in all cells Long-term Choices Mid-term Choices Short-term Choices Choice Sets Choice Qualities Value of Qualities

13 Expanding Traveler Choice B Bike Sharing

14 Bike sharing

15 Lounge buses

16 Car access without ownership

17 Status quo ownership? Shared cars? Shared cars with shared rides?

18 Changes in all cells Long-term Choices Mid-term Choices Short-term Choices Choice Sets Choice Qualities Value of Qualities

19 Are the Millennials different? Example 1: Allison Example 2: Hannah

20 Driver s License Got license within 1 year of eligible age 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Baby Boomers (50-68) Gen Exers (34-49) Millennials (<34) Source: 2014 UC Davis Campus Travel Survey

21 Driver s License: Role of Parents My parents were happy to drive me places 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Baby Boomers (50 to 68) Gen Xers (34-49) Millennials (<34) Source: 2014 UC Davis Campus Travel Survey

22 What else do we know

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25 Ride Sharing Has used Uber, Lyft, or other service 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Baby Boomers (50 to 68) Gen Xers (34-49) Millennials (<34) Source: 2014 San Francisco Voter Survey

26 Bicycling culture /08/22/fashion/riding-awayfrom-a-bar-crawl-with-citibikes.html 013/10/12/nyregion/insickness-and-in-healthlong-after-the-bike-is-dueback.html Riding away from a bar crawl In Sickness and in Health, Long After the Bike Is Due Back

27 E-Bikes and Parents I love my bike. It s my car!

28 Smartphones and travel Flexibility in activities Flexibility in travel Productive travel time

29 Choice Sets Choice Qualities Quality Value Long-term Choices Mid-term Choices Short-term Choices Implications for VMT?

30 How do choices stack-up?

31 What replaces what?

32 Will new options mean new travel?

33 VMT in the future? The aggregate trends discussed do not allow us to forecast with any certainty the car use that we can expect in the future. Goodwin and Van Dender, ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000? 2,

34 Things we can influence Set of choices available Qualities of choices available Value placed on different qualities

35 By the tens of thousands, Portlanders preview their new car-free bridge 8/9/15 With walkers and in strollers, on hopalongs and (in the case of quite a few happily panting dogs) on leashes, Portlanders packed a series of previews Sunday of Tilikum Crossing, the first bridge in the United States to carry buses, bikes, trains, streetcars and people walking but no private cars.

36 Turns onto Market Street by private cars barred starting Tuesday 8/10/15 Anyone hoping to cruise San Francisco s motley main drag of Market Street, whether driving through or simply gawking, will likely have to do it aboard Muni, in a taxi, on a bicycle or on foot.

37 L.A. will add bike and bus lanes, cut car lanes in sweeping policy shift 8/11/15 L.A. will add bike and bus lanes, cut car lanes in sweeping policy shift City leaders say the plan reflects a newfound view that simply widening streets is no longer feasible or, in many cases, desirable. They contend that if even a small share of motorists change their travel behavior, choosing alternatives to the car, the city can make a big dent in the overall number of miles traveled.

38 Tipping the balance If the options are good enough If driving is bad enough

39 Challenge: US resistance to driving impediments 007/07/11/london-releasesits-fifth-annual-congestionpricing-study/ log/2004/09/23/no-car-day/ Pricing Restrictions

40 Not all vehicle trips are high value! The goal is accessibility!

41 Will demand management strategies work?

42 Transforming Transportation Vehicles Fuels Travel How will travel change in the future? What s going on with the millennials? What about the baby-boomers? How will new mobility services evolve? Autonomous vehicles? What about long-distance travel? And don t forget freight!