ERSTE GROUP BANK AG. Growth outlook for the region
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1 A Macro-Economic View of the Banking Sector and the Leasing Market in Central and Eastern Europe Leaseurope: 2011 Seminar for Lessors in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe Erste Group Ljubljana, April, 2011 Page 1 April 15, 2011
2 Growth outlook for the region Page 2 April 15, 2011
3 Today GDP growth is back in all Erste markets % Real GDP growth y/y (in %) AT HR CZ SK HU PL RO SR UA Source: Erste Group Research Page 3 April 15, 2011
4 How long will it take until real GDP levels of 2008 are reached again? Ukraine Romania Hungary Croatia Austria Czech Republic Slovakia Serbia Source: own calculations based on EIU data Page 4 April 15, 2011
5 European growth in a global setting Page 5 April 15, 2011
6 During the crisis of 2009 there was an equal amount of growing and shrinking economies Change of real GDP 2009 (in %) Quelle: EIU, Index Mundi Page 6 April 15, 2011
7 In 2010 the picture changed to the better, however, many parts of Europe grew well below global average Change of real GDP 2010 (in %) Quelle: EIU, Index Mundi Page 7 April 15, 2011
8 At the latest in 2012 CEE will again be the growth engine of Europe, ranking equal with other emerging regions in terms of growth Change of real GDP 2012 (in %) Source: EIU, Index Mundi Page 8 April 15, 2011
9 What are macro economic factors behind this development in CEE? Page 9 April 15, 2011
10 The basic driver for GDP in the post crisis world in CEE: exports Page 10 April 15, 2011
11 In comparison to many CEE countries Germany is a relatively closed economy, despite its reputation as an export nation (figures for 2010, in %) RS HR RO DE UA AT CZ SK HU Export/GDP Import/GDP Source: EIU Page 11 April 15, 2011
12 Increasing net exports had a major role in getting over the crisis (Net exports in % of GDP) AT HR CZ HU RO SR SK UA Page 12 April 15, 2011
13 Growth in Germany is particularly favorable for CZ, HU and SK (and vice versa) 2009 data German position as export partner Exports to Germany as % of total exports Exports to Germany as % of GDP Czech Rep. 1 32% 18% Hungary 1 26% 16% Slovakia 1 20% 13% Poland 1 26% 9% Romania 1 19% 5% Croatia 3 11% 2% Serbia 3 10% 2% Source: CIA world factbook Page 13 April 15, 2011
14 Industrial output of CZ, HU and SK depends highly on performance in Germany 110 Industrial production index (2008 = 100) Slovakia Germany Germany Czech Republic Hungary M M M M M M07 Source: Eurostat Page 14 April 15, 2011
15 ...but HR, RO and PL are much less dependent on Germany 110 Industrial production index (2008 = 100) Croatia Poland Germany Germany Romania M M M M M M07 Source: Eurostat Page 15 April 15, 2011
16 Unemployment weighs on private consumption...and makes potential private leasees hesitant Page 16 April 15, 2011
17 In CEE unemployment is coming down only at a very slow pace 15 Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in % BG CZ HU AT PL RO SI SK HR 2010M M M02 Source: Eurostat Page 17 April 15, 2011
18 High employment rates make people feel safe...and ready to lease Page 18 April 15, 2011
19 Among countries in CEE BG, PL, SI and SK made the biggest progress in this respect Change , in % Bulgaria Germany Poland Slovenia Slovakia Latvia Estonia Austria Finland Lithuania Czech Republic Sweden Hungary Portugal Romania Source: Eurostat, national statistics, Berlin Institute gain 2009 loss Page 19 April 15, 2011
20 When will the region be where Western Europe is today? Page 20 April 15, 2011
21 True CEE convergence will take place between 2020 and 2030 Page 21 April 15, 2011
22 By 2020 many CEE countries will still be significantly below Western levels of 2010 Real per cap GDP in 2020 as % of Western European average in 2010 more than 150% between 90% and 150% between 60% and 90% below 60% Source: EIU Page 22 April 15, 2011
23 By 2030 the most developed part of CEE will be where Western Europe is today Real per cap GDP in 2030 as % of Western European average in 2010 more than 150% between 90% and 150% between 60% and 90% below 60% Source: EIU Page 23 April 15, 2011
24 What will the converging East look like? Page 24 April 15, 2011
25 CEE will become a cluster for high and medium tech manufacturing Page 25 April 15, 2011
26 Structurally speaking the region developes into the direction of countries like Germany and China (Change of current account balances in %, ) Page 26 April 15, 2011
27 The region is on the verge to become a cluster for manufacturing high tech Share of High Tech Exports (% of total exports) 0-5% 15-18% 5-8% 18-59% 8-15% Source: Eurostat Page 27 April 15, 2011
28 A very competitive high and medium tech manufacturing belt has emerged in the recent past Page 28 April 15, 2011
29 ...and CEE s demography deteriorates fast... Page 29 April 15, 2011
30 The number of people living in CEE is rapidly declining 110% 105% EU % 95% 90% 85% 80% EU EU12 EU15 Source: Eurostat Page 30 April 15, 2011
31 The positive effect: growth of GDP per capita is higher than growth of GDP 5 Real GDP growth (in %) AT HR CZ HU RO SR SK UA total per cap Source: EIU Page 31 April 15, 2011
32 Convergence in CEE will be the convergence of regions Page 32 April 15, 2011
33 Projected population changes at regional level (until 2030) show, that agglomerations emerge... Stredni Cechy & Praha Niederösterreich, Wien & Nord- Burgenland Mazowieckie Západné Slovensko & Bratislavsky kraj Közép- Magyarország Metropolitan and other regions in CEE with growing populations, migrations gains and more young adults Közép- & Nyugat- Dunántúl Vest Bucuresti-Ilfov Page 33 April 15, 2011
34 ...with better jobs, higher wages and a better standard of living Regional GDP in % of EU27 average in PPP (2007) up to 56% 114%-143% 56%-85% 143%-172% 85%-114% Page 34 April 15, 2011
35 And why is this important for you? Page 35 April 15, 2011
36 Empirical data show exponential growth of banking assets when people get richer 300% Total banking assets/gdp vs. GDP per capita Total Banking Assets in % of GDP 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% UA 09 UA 06 AT 09 AT 06 HU 09 SL 09 PL 09 HR 09 CZ 09 SL 06 RO 09HR 06 SR 09 HU 06 SK 09 SK 06 SR 06 RO 06 PL 06 0% GDP per cap in Source: Own calculations based on NB figures Page 36 April 15, 2011
37 Similar correlations can be observed in the leasing business Page 37 April 15, 2011
38 Especially in the consumption related car segment there is a close relation between GDP and new volume development Equipment & Cars 800 per cap new leasing volume per cap GDP Page 38 April 15, 2011
39 In relation to per cap GDP markets like HU, RO, BG and UA still seem far from being saturated Actual size of equipment & car leasing market as % of theoretical size 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AT CZ SK HU HR RO RS BG UA SI Page 39 April 15, 2011
40 In the rather business driven real estate business the correlation is less obivous, but still there Real Estate per cap new leasing volume per cap GDP Page 40 April 15, 2011
41 The potential in the real estate leasing seems to be even larger Actual size of leasing market as % of theoretical size 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AT CZ SK HU HR RO RS BG UA SI Page 41 April 15, 2011
42 What other macros tell us Page 42 April 15, 2011
43 Leasing in relation to investment behavior Real growth of equipment & car leasing (X) vs real growth of investments (Y) Page 43 April 15, 2011
44 Leasing in relation to investment behavior Real growth of real estate leasing vs. investments Page 44 April 15, 2011
45 Leasing in relation to consumption behavior Real growth of equipment & car leasing (X) vs. real growth of private consumption (Y) Page 45 April 15, 2011
46 And how do we expect these variables to develop? Forecast of real growth of private consumption (in %) 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Euroland Austria Czech Republic Croatia Hungary Poland Romania Serbia Slovakia Ukraine Bulgaria Slovenia 2011f 2012f Page 46 April 15, 2011
47 And how do we expect these variables to develop? Forecast of real growth of investments (in %) Euroland Austria Czech Republic Croatia Hungary Poland Romania Serbia Slovakia Ukraine Bulgaria Slovenia f 2012f Page 47 April 15, 2011
48 Thank you for your attention Page 48 April 15, 2011
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