BRAZIL S INVESTMENT CLIMATE
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1 São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Brasília Curitiba Recife Belo Horizonte Campo Grande London Lisbon Shanghai Beijing Miami Buenos Aires Johannesburg BRAZIL S INVESTMENT CLIMATE DURVAL DE NORONHA GOYOS JR. SENIOR PARTNER - NORONHA ADVOGADOS BRAZILIAN EMBASSY OCTOBER 17, 2011.
2 POINTS OF PRESENTATION 1. Brazil some geopolitical fundamentals 1.1 Map of Brazil; 1.2 Strategic Advantages; 1.3 Oil Production; 1.4 Ethanol Production and 1.5 Somes of Energy. 2. Brazil s economy 2.1 Population and income; 2.2 GDP; 2.3 External debt; 2.4 International reserves; 2.5 Inflation; 2.6 Exchange rates; 2.7 Interest rates and 2.8 Current account. 3. Brazil s foreign trade 3.1 Overview of Brazil s foreign trade; 3.2 Main suppliers; 3.3 Main buyers; 3.4 Main exports; 3.5 Main imports; 3.6 Main markets; 3.7 Exports by added value and 3.8 Trade in agricultural products. 4. Brazil s investment flows 4. 1 Inbound and 4. 2 Outbound 5. Conclusion: Brazilian Economy Under Dilma Roussef s administration
3 1.1 Map of Brazil
4 1.2 Strategic Advantages Arable land over 20 millions hectars UKR PKT Pop over 100 Million inhabitants KZT TUR IDN NIG BGL ARG AUS USA BRA CHI IND RUS MEX JPN CAN GDP, Population, Agriculture GER UK FRA SPN GDP over US$ 1 Trillion NLD KOR ITA Source:Fiesp
5 1.2 Oil Production Fundamentals million barrels a day 2006 Brazil achieves self sufficiency in oil 2007 Discovery of Tupi oilfield with estimated 10 billion of barrels of oil. The discovery could double the Brazilian reserves Discovery of Carioca oilfield with estimated 70 billion barrels of oil. Discovery puts Brazil's oil reserves among the world's largest million barrels a day million barrels a day 2 Source: 1 - Financial Times, July Petrobras, February 2011 estimate
6 1.3 Ethanol Production Fundamentals 27 billion liters/year (2009) 70 billion liters/year (2020)* Estimate Increase in cultivated area by 67,000 hectares Creation of 20,000 direct jobs and 60,000 indirect jobs Investments in production chain estimated at around USD 1,5 billion for the next years CO 2 emission reduction by 3.5 million tons/year Source: Sugar Cane Industry Union - UNICA
7 1.4 Sources of Energy Fundamentals 86% % 55% % 0 World Renewable Brazil Non-Renewable Source: Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy
8 Brazil's Economy 2.1 a Brazil's Social Development: Division by Classes in 2009 % 30% 15% 55% Classes A/B Classe C Classes D/E Source: FGV
9 Brazil's Economy 2.1 b Middle Class in % of the Brazilian Population 1992/ ,
10 2.1 c Salaries Growth Brazil's Economy 25% 20% 20% 15% 15.38% 16.67% 12.05% 10% 8.33% 8.57% 9.21% 9.68% 6.86% 5% 0% Source: DIEESE
11 Brazil's Economy 2.1 d Real Growth of the Minimum Wage 1996/ % 12.40% 13.04% 12.00% 10.30% 10.00% 8.23% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 4.50% 4.70% 3.60% 5.10% 4.03% 5.79% 6.02% 2.00% 0.00% 1.50% 1.23% 1.19% -0.30% % -4.00% -4.20% -6.00% Minimum Wage today in SP: R$ 600,00 Source: DIEESE
12 Brazil's Economy 2.1 e Poverty in % of the Brazilian Population 1992/ Source: CPS/FGV
13 Brazil's Economy 2.1 g Number of Minimum Wages Required to Acquire a Basic Car Source: FIPE
14 Brazil's Economy 2.2 a Brazil s GDP in US$ GDP (Billion) Population (Million) GDP per capita (Thousand) ,006 1,300 1,378 1,922 2, ,10 3,66 4,77 5,41 6,91 7,030 9,658 10,295 Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE
15 Brazil's Economy 2.2 b Economic Growth % (GDP) Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics IBGE/IEDI * Estimate March, 2011
16 Brazil's Economy 2.2 c Brazil s GDP Source: MTE - CAGED
17 Brazil's Economy 2.2 d Biggest Economies - Projected GDP US$ Trillion Source: The Economist
18 Brazil's Economy 2.3 Development of External Debt Year Gross Amount (US$ Billion) Net Amount (US$ Billion) , , , ,9 165, ,4 148, ,4 115, ,6 86, ,2 12, ,2 (-28) ,4 (-62) ,6 (-51) 2011* 355 (-120) Source: Central Bank * April, 2011
19 Brazil's Economy 2.4 Brazilian International Reserves Year US$ Billion , , , , , , , ,6 * Source: Central Bank *April, 2011
20 Brazil's Economy 2.4 a Brazilian International Reserves US$ Billion Source: Central Bank *April, 2011
21 Brazil's Economy 2.5 a Brazilian Inflation Rates 14.00% 12.00% 12.53% 10.00% 9.30% 8.00% 7.60% 6.00% 5.69% 5.90% 5.91% 6.50% 4.46% 4.31% 4.00% 3.14% 2.00% 0.00% Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE
22 Fundamentals of Brazil's Economy 2.5 b Brazil s Inflation Rate Targeting Tolerância Mín. Tolerância Máx. IPCA META Source: Central Bank / IBGE
23 Brazil's Economy 2.6 Exchange Rates of the Real Against the US Dollar
24 Brazil's Economy 2.7 World's Interest Rates Country Nominal Rate Inflation Real Rate Turkey 6,25% 4,16% 2,09% Russia 8,00% 9,50% -1,50% Brazil 12,00% 6,50% 5,50% South Africa 5,50% 3,70% 1,80% Mexico 4,50% 3,57% 0,93% India 5,75% 9,30% -3,55% Euro Area 1,00% 2,40% -1,40% China 6,06,% 6,01% 0,05% Japan 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% USA 0,25% 2,10% -1,85% Source: Trading Economics * Estimate 2011
25 Brazil's Economy 2.8 Brazil's Current Account 60 US$ Billion
26 Brazil's Economy 2.9 Main problems yet to be solved Taxes are not competitive; Interest rates are very high; Brazilian currency overvalued; Labour costs and Infrastructure.
27 Foreign Trade 3.1 Brazil s Balance of Trade 400 US$ Billion Exports Imports Balance Flow of Trade Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 30, 2011
28 Foreign Trade 3.2 Major Suppliers Countries to Brazil Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 30, 2011
29 Foreign Trade 3.3 Major Countries for Brazilian Exports Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 30, 2011
30 Foreign Trade 3.4 Main Products Exported Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 30, 2011
31 Foreign Trade 3.5 Main Products Imported Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 30, 2011
32 Foreign Trade 3.6 a Major Suppliers Markets to Brazil Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 30, 2011
33 Foreign Trade 3.6 b Major Markets for Brazilian Exports Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 30, 2011
34 Foreign Trade 3.7 Products Categories of Exports Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC * June 30, 2011
35 Foreign Trade 3.8 Brazilian Trade in Agricultural products Products Position between main exporters % of Total Global Exports Orange juice 1º 81% Poultry 1º 35% Sugar 1º 33% Coffee 1º 30% Tobacco 1º 27% Bovine Meat 1º 24% Ethanol 1º 13% Soy 2º 32% Soy Oil 2º 28% Pork 4º 11% Cotton 5º 5% Source: MDIC * December 2010
36 Investment Flows 4.1 Foreign Direct Investment: Inflows ,00 * Source: Central Bank *Central Bank Estimate
37 Investment Flows 4.1 Foreign Direct Investments: Inflows by Country US$ Billion USA United Kingdom France Canada China Spain Russia Germany Brazil Belgium Switzerland Italy Mexico Singapore Hong Kong Sweden Luxemburg Source: Unctad, World Investment Report 2008
38 Investment Flows 4.2 Foreign Direct Investment: Outbound US$ Billion Source: Central Bank
39 Investment Flows 4.2 Foreign Direct Investment: Outflows by Country US$ Billion USA United Kingdom France Germany Spain Italy Japan Hong Kong Belgium Switzerland Russia Brazil Holland Canada China Belize Source: Unctad, World Investment Report 2008
40 Foreign Trade 5. Dilma Roussef s Administration: The Brazilian Economy and Foreign Trade Sound policies of Lula s government are to be sustained; Inflation targeting maintained; Interest rates policies are to be maintained; Over appreciation of Real is to be maintained; Some tax reforms will take place; Some reforms in Labour Law to take place; Public management to be improved; Foreign Trade balance to decrease; Current account deficit to grow; Economy to continue to grow at about 5% per year; and Brazil s economy is poised to overtake France s, Britain s and Germany s by the end of Roussef s administration. Source: Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
41 NORONHA ADVOGADOS Located in one of the main financial centers of the city, the São Paulo office is the head office of Noronha Advogados and the oldest, having been opened in June The London office, opened in 1987, has partners admitted in England and Wales, is regulated by the SRA and supports investments and business with Brazil. Address: 4 th floor, 193/195 Brompton Road London SW3 1NE England UK Phone: (44-20) Fax: (44-20) Contact: Vera Helena de Moraes Dantas Address: Av. Brig. Faria Lima, º andar Torre Norte São Paulo SP Brasil Phone: (55-11) Fax: (55-11) Contact: Durval de Noronha Goyos Júnior Lilian Thomé
42 NORONHA ADVOGADOS
43 Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr.
São Paulo, 23 April 2007
1/38 BRAZIL AND CANADA: TRADE FUNDAMENTALS AND PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER COOPERATION São Paulo, 23 April 2007 Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr. Noronha Advogados São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Curitiba, Porto
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