The New York Times/CBS News Poll October 28-30, 2004

Transcription

1 The New York Times/CBS News Poll October 28-30, 2004 For release in paper of November 1, 2004 N= 920 Registered N= 824 All trends are from New York Times/CBS News polls unless otherwise noted. An asterisk indicates registered respondents only. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you registered to vote in the precinct or election district where you now live, or aren t you? Yes No 10/28-30/ How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2004 Presidential campaign a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? A lot Some Not much None DK/NA 7/8-9/03* CBS /26-28/03* CBS /28-10/1/03* /10-12/03* CBS /10-13/03* /14-16/03* /12-15/04* /12-15/04* CBS /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* CBS /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /20-22/04* CBS /1-3/04* /14-17/04* 10/28-30/04*

2 ROTATE QUESTIONS 2 AND Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven t you heard enough about John Kerry yet to have an opinion? Not Haven t Favorable Favorable Undecided heard enough Refused 8/26-28/03* CBS /28-10/1/03* /28-10/1/03 DPV /10-13/03* /10-13/03 DPV /14-16/03* /14-16/03 DPV /12-15/04* /12-15/04 DPV /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* CBS /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /20-22/04* CBS /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04*

3 3. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven=t you heard enough about George W. Bush yet to have an opinion? Not Haven t heard Favorable Favorable Undecided enough Refused 4/99 CBS /99 CBS* /99 CBS* /99 CBS* /99 CBS* /99* /99* CBS /00* /00* CBS /00* CBS /00* /00* /00B* /00* CBS /00* CBS /00A* /00D* /00* CBS /00* /00* CBS /00* /00L* /15-17/01 CBS /10-12/01 CBS /8-12/ /4-5/01 CBS /23-25/01 CBS /14-18/ /28-31/01 CBS /13-16/ /20-24/ /13-27/ /26-28/03 CBS /28-10/1/ /10-13/ /14-15/ /12-15/ /10-14/ /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /20-22/04* CBS /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04*

4 4. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2004 election for President this November -- would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the election for President? Definitely Probably Probably Definitely Already Vote vote not vote not vote voted DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* /23-27/04* /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /20-22/04* CBS /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04* If the 2004 Presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice-President, the Republicans; John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice-President, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, would you vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney; John Kerry and John Edwards, or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo? (CANDIDATE NAMES ROTATED) Won t vote Depends Kerry Bush Nader Other(vol.) (vol.) (vol.) DK/NA 9/12-16/04* /20-22/04* CBS /1-3/04* /9-11/04* CBS /14-17/04* /28-30/04* LIKELY VOTERS RELATED TREND: IF THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WERE BEING HELD TODAY, AND THE CANDIDATES WERE JOHN KERRY, THE DEMOCRAT, AND GEORGE W. BUSH, THE REPUBLICAN, AND RALPH NADER, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR JOHN KERRY, GEORGE W. BUSH OR RALPH NADER? WON T VOTE DEPENDS KERRY BUSH NADER OTHER(VOL.) (VOL.) (VOL.) DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* CBS /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS

5 IF ANSWERED DK/NA TO Q.5, ASK: 6. Well, as of today, do you lean more toward John Kerry and John Edwards, or more toward George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, or more toward Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo? Won t vote Depends Kerr y Bush Nader O ther(v ol. ) (vo l. ) (vol.) DK/NA 10/28-30/04* IF ALREADY VOTED, ASK: 7. In the 2004 Presidential election, did you vote for John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice-President, the Democrats; George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice-President, the Republicans; or Ralph Nader for President and Peter Camejo for Vice- President? Kerry Bush Nader Other(vol.) DK/NA 10/28-30/04* If the 2004 Presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President, the Democrats, and George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice President, the Republicans, would you vote for Kerry and Edwards or Bush and Cheney? (CANDIDATE NAMES ROTATED) Kerry and Bush and Other Won t vote Depends Edwards Cheney (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) DK/NA 2/24-27/04* CBS /20-23/04* CBS /10-14/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /20-22/04* CBS /1-3/04* /9-11/04* CBS /14-17/04* /28-30/04* RELATED TREND: IF THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WERE BEING HELD TODAY, AND THE CANDIDATES WERE JOHN KERRY, THE DEMOCRAT, AND GEORGE W. BUSH, THE REPUBLICAN, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR JOHN KERRY OR GEORGE W. BUSH? (CANDIDATE NAMES ROTATED) WON T VOTE DEPENDS KERRY BUSH OTHER(VOL.) (VOL.) (VOL.) DK/NA 2/12-15/04* CBS /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* CBS /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04*

6 11. Is your mind made up or is it too early to say for sure? Mind made up Too early DK/NA 2/12-15/04* CBS /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* CBS /23-27/04* /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04* IF ANSWERED GEORGE W. BUSH TO Q.5 OR Q.8, ASK: 12. Would you describe your support for George W. Bush as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates? Like with Strongly favor reservations Dislike others DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /12-16/04* /20-22/04* CBS /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04*

7 IF ANSWERED JOHN KERRY TO Q.5 OR Q.8, ASK: 13. Would you describe your support for John Kerry as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates? Like with Strongly favor reservations Dislike others DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /12-16/04* /20-22/04* CBS /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04* IF UNDECIDED OR LEANER IN Q.5, Q.8 OR Q.11, ASK: 14. When do you think you will definitely decide who to vote for -- in the next few days, on election day itself, or do you think you might decide not to vote? Next few days Election day Might not vote DK/NA 10/28-30/04* Regardless of how you intend to vote for President in 2004, who do you expect to finally win the 2004 presidential election -- John Kerry or George W. Bush? (CANDIDATE NAMES ROTATED) Kerry Bush Depends(vol.) DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /12-16/04* /28-30/04*

8 ROTATE QUESTIONS 17 AND If George W. Bush is re-elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what he will do in office: 1. Excited, 2. Optimistic but not excited, 3. Concerned, but not scared, or 4. Scared? Excited Optimistic Concerned Scared DK/NA 10/28-30/04* If John Kerry is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what he will do in office: 1. Excited, 2. Optimistic but not excited, 3. Concerned, but not scared, or 4. Scared? Excited Optimistic Concerned Scared DK/NA 10/28-30/04* So far, would you be more likely to describe the 2004 Presidential election as interesting or dull? Interesting Dull DK/NA 9/12-16/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04* READINGS FROM PAST ELECTION YEARS: INTERESTING DULL DK/NA 11/84B /88C* /92A* /92C* /92C /96* /96C* /96* /00* /00B* /00* CBS /00* CBS /00A* /00D* /00*

9 21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Ap- Dis- DK/ Ap- Disprove approve NA prove approve DK/NA 2/10-12/01 CBS /26-28/03 CBS /8-12/ /15-16/03 CBS /4-5/01 CBS /28-10/1/ /10-12/01 CBS /20-21/03 CBS /14-18/ /10-12/03 CBS /28-31/01 CBS /10-13/ /11-12/01 CBS /14-15/ /13-14/ /12-15/ /20-23/ /12-15/04 CBS /25-28/ /24-27/04 CBS /7-10/ /10-14/ /5-6/02 CBS /30-4/1/04 CBS /15-17/02 CBS /23-27/ /21-24/ /20-23/04 CBS /24-26/02 CBS /23-27/ /1-2/02 CBS /11-15/ /28-5/1/ /15-18/04 CBS /13-14/02 CBS /12-16/ /19-20/02 CBS /20-22/04 CBS /18-20/02 CBS /1-3/ /8-9/02 CBS /9-11/04 CBS /13-16/ /14-17/ /22-23/02 CBS /28-30/ /6-7/02 CBS /2-5/ /22-23/02 CBS /3-6/ /27-31/ /20-24/ /4-6/03 CBS /19-22/ /5-6/03 CBS /10-12/ /24-25/03 CBS /4-5/03 CBS /7-9/ /15-16/03 CBS /17/03 CBS /20/03 PANEL /20-21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /20-24/ /26-27/03 CBS /2-3/03 CBS /11-13/ /26-27/03 CBS /9-12/ /13-27/ /11-12/03 CBS

10 22. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Wrong DK/ Right Wrong Dir. Trk. NA Dir. Trk. DK/NA 1/ /10-12/03 CBS /83 NYT /10-13/ /83 NYT /14-15/ / /12-15/ / /12-15/04 CBS / /10-14/ / /30-4/1/04 CBS /94 CBS /23-27/ /95 NYT /20-23/04 CBS / /23-27/ /96 CBS /11-15/ /96 NYT /15-18/04 CBS / /12-16/ / /20-22/04 CBS / /1-3/ / /14-17/ / /28-30/ / /98A /98B / /8-12/ /23-25/01 CBS /14-18/ /25-28/ /7-10/ /24-27/ /13-16/ /22-23/02 CBS /6-7/02 CBS /2-5/ /3-6/ /27-31/ /20-24/ /10-12/ /20-21/ /22/ /20-22/ /11-13/ /13-27/ /28-10/1/ QUESTION READ: DO YOU FEEL THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY ARE GENERALLY GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION TODAY, OR DO YOU FEEL THINGS HAVE GOTTEN OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK? 2 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL. QUESTION READ: DO YOU THINK THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY ARE GENERALLY GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION OR DO YOU FEEL THINGS HAVE GOTTEN PRETTY SERIOUSLY OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK? 3 ABC NEWS POLL. QUESTION READ: DO YOU THINK THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY ARE GENERALLY GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION OR DO YOU FEEL THINGS HAVE GOTTEN PRETTY SERIOUSLY OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK? 4 WASHINGTON POST POLL, CONDUCTED 1/28-31, AFTER THE LEWINSKY SCANDAL BROKE. 10

11 23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling foreign policy? Ap- Dis- Ap- Disap- DK/ prove approve DK/NA prove prove NA 3/8-12/ /20-21/03 CBS /4-5/01 CBS /10-13/ /23-25/01 CBS /14-15/ /10-12/01 CBS /12-15/ /14-18/ /12-15/04 CBS /25-28/ /24-27/04 CBS /07-10/ /10-14/ /15-17/02 CBS /30-4/1/04 CBS /21-24/ /23-27/ /24-26/02 CBS /20-23/04 CBS /1-2/02 CBS /23-27/ /15-18/02 CBS /11-15/ / CBS /1-3/ /19-20/02 CBS /14-17/ /18-20/02 CBS /28-30/ /8-9/02 CBS /13-16/ /2-5/ /22-23/02 CBS /3-6/ /27-31/ /20-24/ /4-6/03 CBS /19-22/ /5-6/03 CBS /10-12/ /24-25/03 CBS /4-5/03 CBS /7-9/ /13-27/ /26-28/03 CBS /15-16/03 CBS /28-10/1/

12 24. How about the economy? Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy? Ap- Dis- Ap- Disprove approve DK/NA prove approve DK/NA 3/8-12/ /30-4/1/04 CBS /4-5/01 CBS /23-27/ /23-25/01 CBS /20-23/04 CBS /10-12/01 CBS /23-27/ /14-18/ /11-15/ /25-28/ /15-18/04 CBS /7-10/ /12-16/ /5-6/02 CBS /1-3/ /15-17/02 CBS /9-11/04 CBS /21-24/ /14-17/ /24-26/02 CBS /28-30/ /13-14/02 CBS /18-20/02 CBS /8-9/02 CBS /13-16/ /22-23/02 CBS /6-7/02 CBS /2-5/ /22-23/02 CBS /3-6/ /27-31/ /20-24/ /4-6/03 CBS /19-22/ /5-6/03 CBS /10-12/ /24-25/03 CBS /4-5/03 CBS /7-9/ /20-21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /20-24/ /11-13/ /26-27/03 CBS /9-12/ /13-27/ /11-12/03 CBS /26-28/03 CBS /15-16/03 CBS /28-10/1/ /10-13/ /14-15/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04 CBS /10-14/

13 25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 2/10-12/ /24-25/03 CBS /4-5/03 CBS /7-9/ /15-16/03 CBS /17/03 CBS /20/03 PANEL /20-21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /20-24/ /26-27/03 CBS /2-3/03 CBS /11-13/ /26-27/03 CBS /9-12/ /27-28/03 CBS /8-9/03 CBS /11-12/03 CBS /15-16/03 CBS /28-10/1/ /20-21/03 CBS /10-12/03 CBS /10-13/ /14-15/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04 CBS /10-14/ /30-4/1/04 CBS /23-27/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/ /11-15/ /15-18/04 CBS /12-16/ /1-3/ /9-11/04 CBS /14-17/ /28-30/

14 26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the campaign against terrorism? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 10/25-28/ /07-10/ /5-6/02 CBS /15-17/02 CBS /21-24/ /24-26/02 CBS /1-2/02 CBS /13-14/02 CBS /19-20/02 CBS /18-20/02 CBS /8-9/02 CBS /22-23/02 CBS /6-7/02 CBS /2-5/ /22-23/02 CBS /27-28/03 CBS /10-13/ /14-15/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04 CBS /10-14/ /30-4/1/04 CBS /23-27/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/ /11-15/ /15-18/04 CBS /12-16/ /1-3/ /9-11/04 CBS /14-17/ /28-30/ VARIED WORDING: QUESTION READ WAR ON TERRORISM 14

15 27. Compared with past presidential campaigns, do you think the campaign has been more positive this year, more negative this year, or about the same? More positive More negative Same DK/NA 10/21-24/88* /31-11/2/88* /2-4/92* /31-11/1/92* /10-13/96* /17-20/96* /12-16/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04* Which will matter more in deciding how you vote for President -- national security issues or economic issues? (ANSWER CATEGORIES ROTATED.) National Economic security issues Both equal(vol.) Neither(vol.) DK/NA 10/14-17/04* /28-30/04* Do you think the policies of the Bush Administration have made the United States safer from terrorism, less safe from terrorism, or have the policies of the Bush Administration not affected the U.S.'s safety from terrorism? Safer Less safe No effect DK/NA 9/28-10/1/ /12-15/ /10-14/ /30-4/1/ /23-27/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/04* /12-16/04* /20-22/04* /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04*

16 31. Do you think the policies of the Bush Administration are increasing the number of jobs in the United States, decreasing the number of jobs, or are the policies of the Bush Administration not affecting the number of jobs? Increasing Decreasing No effect DK/NA 10/14-17/04* /28-30/04* RELATED TREND: DO YOU THINK THE POLICIES OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION HAVE INCREASED THE NUMBER OF JOBS IN THE UNITED STATES, DECREASED THE NUMBER OF JOBS, OR HAVE THE POLICIES OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION NOT AFFECTED THE NUMBER OF JOBS IN THE U.S.? INCREASED DECREASED NO EFFECT DK/NA 9/28-10/1/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04 CBS /10-14/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/04* /12-16/04* Do you think the Bush Administration did a good job or a poor job thinking through what would happen in Iraq as a result of the war? Good job Poor job DK/NA 10/1-3/04* /11-14/04* /28-30/04* ROTATE QUESTIONS AND Do you think John Kerry has the same priorities for the country as you have, or not? Has Does not have DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /15-18/04* /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /9-11/04* CBS /14-17/04* /28-30/04*

17 34. Do you think John Kerry has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Has Does not have DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /30-8/1/04* CBS /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /28-30/04* Do you think John Kerry does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA 10/9-11/04* CBS /14-17/04* /28-30/04* RELATED TREND: HOW MUCH DO YOU THINK JOHN KERRY CARES ABOUT THE NEEDS AND PROBLEMS OF PEOPLE LIKE YOURSELF -- A LOT, SOME, NOT MUCH, OR NONE AT ALL? A LOT SOME NOT MUCH NONE DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /23-27/04* /12-16/04* Do you have confidence in John Kerry's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, or are you uneasy about his approach? Confidence Uneasy DK/NA 2/24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04* If John Kerry is elected President in November, how much confidence do you have that he would make the right decisions when it comes to protecting the country from terrorist attack ---- a lot, some, not much or none at all? A lot Some Not much None at all DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /9-11/04* CBS /14-17/04* /28-30/04*

18 38. Do you think John Kerry says what he really believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear? What he believes What people want to hear DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /30-4/1/04*CBS /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /9-11/04* CBS /14-17/04* /28-30/04* What do you think John Kerry has been spending more time doing in his campaign -- explaining what he would do as president or attacking George W. Bush? Explaining Attacking DK/NA 3/30-4/1/04* CBS /15-18/04* /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04* Do you think George W. Bush has the same priorities for the country as you have, or not? Has Does not have DK/NA 1/15-17/01 CBS /15-17/02 CBS /19-22/ /5-6/03 CBS /26-27/03 CBS /28-10/1/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /9-11/04* CBS /14-17/04* /28-30/04*

19 41. Do you think George W. Bush has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Yes No DK/NA 10/28-30/ /19-21/00* CBS /10-13/00* /20-23/00B* /18-20/00* CBS /9-11/00* /27-10/1/00* /6-9/00* CBS /18-21/00* /15-17/01 CBS /10-12/01 CBS /23-25/01 CBS /14-18/ /11-12/01 CBS /13-14/ /20-23/ /21-24/ /9-12/ /28-10/1/ /12-15/ /10-14/04* /30-8/1/04* CBS /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /28-30/04* Do you think George W. Bush does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA 10/9-11/04* CBS /14-17/04* /28-30/04* RELATED TREND: HOW MUCH DO YOU THINK GEORGE W. BUSH CARES ABOUT THE NEEDS AND PROBLEMS OF PEOPLE LIKE YOU -- A LOT, SOME, NOT MUCH OR NONE AT ALL? A LOT SOME NOT MUCH NONE AT ALL DK/NA 3/8-12/ /14-18/ /21-24/ /20-24/ /19-22/ /9-12/ /13-27/ /28-10/1/ /12-15/ /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /12-16/04*

20 43. Do you have confidence in George W. Bush s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, or are you uneasy about his approach? Confidence Uneasy DK/NA 7/00B* /00* CBS /00* CBS /00* /00* CBS /00* /00* /15-17/ /10-12/ /8-12/ /4-5/01 CBS /23-25/01 CBS /14-18/ /20-24/ /7-9/ /11-13/ /28-10/1/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04* If George W. Bush is re-elected President in November, how much confidence do you have that he would make the right decisions when it comes to protecting the country from terrorist attack --- a lot, some, not much, or none at all? A lot Some Not much None at all DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /9-11/04* CBS /14-17/04* /28-30/04*

21 45. Do you think George W. Bush says what he really believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear? What he believes What people want to hear DK/NA 10/28-30/99 CBS /12-14/00* /20-23/00* /18-20/00* CBS /18-21/00* /1-4/00* /15-17/01 CBS /23-25/01 CBS /15-17/02 CBS /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /9-11/04* CBS /14-17/04* /28-30/04* What do you think George W. Bush has been spending more time doing in his campaign -- explaining what he would do as president or attacking John Kerry? Explaining Attacking DK/NA 3/30-4/1/04* CBS /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* /1-3/04* /14-17/04* /28-30/04* Which comes closest to your view: 1. Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry OR 2. Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry OR 3. There should be no legal recognition of a gay couples relationship? Marry Civil unions No legal recognition DK/NA 3/10-14/ /20-23/04* CBS /11-15/ /28-30/

22 48. Is it possible you would ever vote for a candidate who does not share your views on the issue of gay marriage, or is the subject so important that you could not vote for a candidate who disagrees with you? Yes No Depends(vol.) DK/NA 10/28-30/04* Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bill Clinton yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided DK enough Refused 5/ /91D* /92* /92A* /92B* /92* /92* /92A* /92* CBS /92* /92* /92* CBS /92B* /92A* /92B* CBS /92D* /92E* /92A* /92A* / /93* / / / / / / / / / /96* /96* CBS /96* /96* /96* NYT /96* /96* /96B* CBS /96C* /96D* CBS (CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE...) 22

23 (CLINTON FAVORABILITY CONTINUED...) Favorable Not favorable Undecided DK enough Refused 9/96* /96* /96C* /96* /98A CBS /98B CBS /98C CBS /98D /98A /98B / /98 CBS /98A CBS /98B CBS / /98 CBS / / / /98 CBS /98B /98C /98 CBS /98 CBS /98A /98A /98 CBS / /19/ /20/ /99 CBS /99 CBS / /99 CBS /99 CBS /99 CBS /99 CBS /99 CBS /99 CBS /99 CBS /99 CBS / / / /00B /00* /15-17/01 CBS /10-12/01 CBS /8-12/ /11-15/ /28-30/04*

24 50. Is your opinion of Rudolph Giuliani favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Rudolph Giuliani yet to have an opinion? Not Haven t heard Favorable favorable Undecided enough Refused 3/1-2/98 CBS /28-30/99 CBS /15-18/04* CBS /28-30/04* Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out? Right thing Stay out DK/NA 12/10-13/ /14-16/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04 CBS /10-14/ /23-27/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/ /11-15/ /15-18/04 CBS /12-16/ /1-3/ /9-11/04 CBS /14-17/ /28-30/

25 52. Do you think of the war with Iraq as part of the war on terrorism, or do you think of it as separate from the war on terrorism? IF ANSWERED PART OF WAR ON TERRORISM, ASK: Is it a major part of the war on terrorism, or a minor part of the war on terrorism? Major part Minor part Not part DK/NA 4/2-3/02 CBS /11-13/ /9-12/ /15-16/03 CBS /28-10/1/ /10-12/03 CBS /21-22/03 CBS /12-14/04 CBS /30-4/1/04 CBS /23-27/ /23-27/ /6-8/04 CBS /15-18/04 CBS /1-3/ /14-17/ /28-30/ How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq? Would you say things are going very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly? Very Somewhat Somewhat Very well well badly badly DK/NA 5/27-28/03 CBS /8-9/03 CBS /11-12/03 CBS /26-28/03 CBS /15-16/03 CBS /20-21/03 CBS /10-12/03 CBS /10-13/ /14-15/ /21-22/03 CBS /8/04 CBS /23-27/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/ /11-15/ /15-18/ /12-16/ /14-17/ /28-30/

26 54. How likely do you think it is that terrorists will try to disrupt the elections on Tuesday - very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely? Very Somewhat Not very Not at all DK/NA 10/28-30/ How important do you think who wins this year's presidential campaign is to you and your family - very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important? Very Somewhat Not very Not at all DK/NA 10/27-29/96 CBS /10-13/00* /29-31/00* CBS /28-30/04* Do you or does someone in your household belong to a labor union? Yes, No Yes, self Yes, other self and other DK/NA 10/28-30/ Have you yourself ever served in the U.S. armed forces or the U.S. reserves? Yes No 10/28-30/ Do you or does any member of your immediate family now serve in the U.S. armed forces or in the U.S. reserves? No Yes, self Yes, other DK/NA 10/28-30/ If you do vote in the November 2nd election, will you vote by mail or by turning in an absentee ballot, OR will you vote at your precinct polling place on Election Day? IF ABSENTEE ASK: As of today, have you already returned your absentee ballot or are you still planning to vote absentee? 10/28-30/04* Mail/absentee ballot - already returned 4 Mail/absentee - planning to vote 2 Precinct voter 78 Early voter - already voted(vol.) 3 Early voter - planning to vote(vol.) 1 DK/NA - 26

27 IF EARLY VOTER, ASK: 60. When you voted, did you vote by mail or by turning in an absentee ballot, OR did you vote at an early voting location? Mail/absentee ballot Early voting location 10/28-30/04* Is your family financially better off today than it was four years ago, worse off financially, or is it about the same as it was four years ago? Better off Worse off About the same DK/NA 7/30-8/1/04* CBS /14-17/ /28-30/ How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not concerned at all? Very Somewhat Not at all DK/NA 10/3-5/ /23-27/ /23-27/ /12-16/ /14-17/ /28-30/ How much confidence do you have that the votes for President will be counted properly this November -- a lot, some, not much, or no confidence at all? A lot Some Not much None at all DK/NA 10/28-30/ VARIED WORDING: HOW MUCH CONFIDENCE DO YOU HAVE THAT THE VOTES FOR PRESIDENT WILL BE COUNTED PROPERLY THIS NOVEMBER -- A LOT, SOME, NOT MUCH, OR NO CONFIDENCE AT ALL? A LOT SOME NOT MUCH NONE AT ALL DK/NA 7/11-15/ /12-16/ /1-3/ /14-17/ How concerned are you that you will encounter problems that might prevent you from voting or prevent your vote from being counted accurately -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, or not at all concerned? Very Somewhat Not very Not at all DK/NA 10/28-30/04*

28 65. Do you think there is a deliberate attempt in some states to prevent African-Americans and other minorities from voting or having their votes counted, or not? Deliberate attempt Not DK/NA 10/28-30/04* BLACKS* WHITES* Did you vote in the 2000 presidential election, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote? IF VOTED, ASK: Did you vote for Al Gore, George W. Bush, Pat Buchanan, or Ralph Nader? Voted, Didn't Gore Bush Buchanan Nader won't say vote DK/NA 10/28-30/04* Did you vote for U.S. House of Representatives in the elections held in 2002, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote for U.S. House of Representatives in 2002? IF VOTED, ASK: In the election for U.S. House of Representatives, did you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? Chose Yes, Yes, Yes, Prevented not to Rep. Dem. something else(vol.) DK/NA 10/28-30/04* Regardless of what you think about George Bush now, looking back to 2000, would you say George W. Bush legitimately won the 2000 presidential election, or not? Legitimately won Did not win legitimately DK/NA 12/00 CBS /15-17/01 CBS /8-12/ /9-12/ /28-10/1/ /10-13/ /14-16/03* /12-15/ /10-14/ /11-15/ /12-16/ /1-3/ /14-17/ /28-30/ QUESTION DID NOT INCLUDE REGARDLESS TO

29 67. Some people think of themselves as evangelical or born again Christians. Do you ever think of yourself in either of these ways? Yes No DK/NA 10/28-30/ Would you say you attend religious services every week, almost every week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, or never? Every Almost Once/twice Few times week every week a month a year Never DK/NA 10/14-17/

30 Generally speaking, do you usually consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? Rep Dem Ind DK/NA Rep Dem Ind DK/NA 1/92A / /92B /98B /92A / /92B / / / / / /92A / / /98B / /98C /92B /98A /92A /98B /92D / /92E / /92A / /92A / /92C / /92D / /92E / / /00B / /00A / /00D / / /93A / /93A /00L /93B /8-12/ / /14-18/ / /25-28/ / /7-10/ / /21-24/ / /28-5/1/ / /13-16/ / /2-5/ / /3-5/ / /27-31/ / /20-24/ / /19-22/ / /10-12/ / /7-9/ / /11-13/ / /13-27/ / /28-10/1/ / /10-13/ / /14-15/ / /12-15/ / /10-14/ / /23-27/ /96 NYT /23-27/ / /11-15/ / /12-16/ /96C /1-3/ / /14-17/ / /28-30/ /96C / / / /

31 How would you describe your views on most political matters? Generally, do you think of yourself as liberal, moderate, or conservative? Lib Mod Con DK/NA Lib Mod Con DK/NA 1/92A / /92B / /92A / /92B / / /98B / / /92A / / / / / /92B / /92A / /92D /98C /92E /98A /92A /98B /92C / /92D / /92E / / / / / / / / / /93A /00B /93A /00A /93B /00D / /7-10/ / /21-24/ / /28-5/1/ / /13-16/ / /2-5/ / /3-5/ / /27-31/ / /20-24/ / /19-22/ / /10-12/ / /7-9/ / /11-13/ / /13-27/ / /28-10/1/ / /10-13/ / /14-15/ / /12-15/ / /10-14/ / /23-27/ / /23-27/ / /11-15/ / /12-16/ / /1-3/ / /14-17/ / /28-30/ /96C / / /96C / /

32 What is your religious preference today? Protestant Catholic Jewish Other None DK/NA 10/28-30/ How old are you? Over 64 Refused 10/28-30/ What was the last grade in school you completed? Not a Some College H.S. grad H.S. grad college grad Post Gr ad DK/ NA 10/28-30/ Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, or not? Hispanic Not Hispani c DK/ NA 10/28-30/ Are you white, black, Asian or some other race? White Black Asian Other Refused 10/28-30/ Are you now married, widowed, divorced, separated, or have you never been married? Never Married Widowed Divorced Separated married DK/NA 10/28-30/ Was your total family income in 2003 UNDER or OVER $50,000? IF UNDER, ASK: Was it under $15,000, between $15,000 and $30,000, or between $30,000 and $50,000? IF OVER, ASK: Was it between $50,000 and $75,000 or between $75,000 and $100,000 or was it over $100,000? Under $15,000- $30,000- $50,000- $75,000- $15,000 $29,999 $49,999 $74,999 $99,999 Refused 10/28-30/ Male Female 10/28-30/