The World Did Not End in Q1
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- Hollie Wilkinson
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1 The World Did Not End in Q1 Sam Wilkin Senior Advisor, Business Research Blog:
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6 5 Exports to Russia: 10% of Finnish exports; 4% of Finnish GDP
7 1. Global Economic Weather Report 2. Economic Outlook Europe Grexit US China Russia/Ukraine 6
8 Global Economic Growth Heat Map 1993 Source: IMF 7
9 Global Economic Growth Heat Map 2004 Source: IMF 8
10 Global Economic Growth Heat Map 2009 Source: IMF 9
11 Global Economic Growth Heat Map 2010 Source: IMF 10
12 Global Economic Growth Heat Map 2014 Source: IMF 11
13 Global Economic Growth Heat Map 2015 Source: IMF 12
14 Next up: Europe Outlook What happens if Greece exits? China Outlook US Outlook Russia/Ukraine Outlook 13
15 1. Global Economic Weather Report 2. Economic Outlook Europe Grexit US China Russia/Ukraine 14
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19 Eurozone: Lending to non-financial corporations % year Source: Haver Analytics
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21 Eurozone: Consumer confidence & retail sales % balance % year 5 Consumer confidence 5 0 (LHS) *3 month moving average Retail sales* (RHS) Source: Haver Analytics
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23 Eurozone: Industrial new orders % year Source: Oxford Economics
24 Cash holdings of non-financial corporations % of GDP UK Germany France Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
25 Eurozone: GDP % quarter % year-on-year (RHS) % quarter-onquarter (LHS) Forecast % year Source: Oxford Economics
26 RAPPORTO DEBITI/PIL Household FAMIGLIE Debt (%GDP) RAPPORTO DEBITI/PIL Household FAMIGLIE Debt (%GDP) Regno UK Unito Stati Uniti US Spain Spagna 80 Eurozone Zona euro 80 Germany Germania Francia France Italia Italy Source: Oxford Economics
27 200 RAPPORTO DEBITI/PIL Corporate AZIENDE* Debt (%GDP) 200 RAPPORTO DEBITI/PIL Corporate AZIENDE* Debt (%GDP) Spagna Spain 150 Zona euro Eurozone 150 Francia France Italy Italia Regno Unito UK Germania Germany US Stati Uniti * Settore non-finanziario 50 Source: Oxford Economics * Settore non-finanziario.
28 Eurozone: GDP % quarter % year-on-year (RHS) % quarter-onquarter (LHS) Forecast % year Source: Oxford Economics
29 Unit labour costs 2000= Greece Spain France Germany Forecast Italy Source: 28 Oxford Economics
30 29 Productivity growth Ireland Slovakia Spain Portugal France Neth Eurozone Beligum Germany Austria Greece Finland Italy ,% Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
31 GDP growth forecast for Ireland Slovakia Spain Malta Luxembourg Estonia Slovenia Germany Netherlands Portugal EuroZone France Belgium Austria Italy Finland Greece Cyprus Source: Oxford Economics % year
32 1. Global Economic Weather Report 2. Economic Outlook Europe Grexit US China Russia/Ukraine 31
33 Germany and other AAA countries Eurozone periphery states 32
34 Eurozone: Credit spreads % spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds Greece Portugal Italy Spain Ireland Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
35 Italy Eurozone: Credit spreads % spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds Italy Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
36 Eurozone: Credit spreads % spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds Greece Portugal Italy Spain Ireland : Draghi's "Whatever it takes" Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
37 Italy Eurozone: Credit spreads % spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds Italy : Draghi's "Whatever it takes" Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
38 Eurozone: Credit spreads % spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds Greece Portugal Italy Spain Ireland : Draghi's "Whatever it takes" Now! Greek Elections Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
39 Italy Eurozone: Credit spreads % spread of 10-year bonds over German bunds 6 Now! 5 Italy : Draghi's "Whatever it takes" 4 3 Greek Elections Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
40 Now! Germany and other AAA countries Greece
41 Implicit views of markets based on bond prices: 1. Greece and EU reach agreement 78% 2. Agreement stays on track months 67% 3. Capital controls 48% 4. Greek exit 38% Source: Oxford Economics 40
42 Retail deposits at Eurozone banks* % annual growth Spain Greece Ireland -30 Cyprus Portugal * Non-MFIs excluding central government Source : Oxford Economics/ECB
43 Eurozone bank lending to Greece In 2008: 175bn In 2014: 42bn (0.5% of German GDP) (Eurozone gov t lending to Greece: 250bn) 42
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45 44 Greek exit scenario
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47 46 Greek exit scenario
48 1. Global Economic Weather Report 2. Economic Outlook Europe Grexit US China Russia/Ukraine 47
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54 US, UK & Eurozone: Corporate loan growth % year 25 UK loans to PNFCs US loans inc. commercial real estate 5 0 Eurozone loans to PNFCs Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
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56 US: Consumer attitudes 1985= Consumer confidence Conference Board Consumer sentiment University of Michigan Source: Conference Board, University of Michigan/Haver Analytics
57 US: Real wage rate % year Nominal Real Source: BLS, Oxford Economics
58 US: Relative unit labour costs 2008= Forecast Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
59 Manufacturing Investment Index: 2007 = Japan UK Germany US Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
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65 1. Global Economic Weather Report 2. Economic Outlook Europe Grexit US China Russia/Ukraine 64
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67 World: Broad money % year 12 Excluding China Including China Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
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72 China s Forex reserves of $3.6trn Gov t debt of 17% GDP External debt of 9% GDP = bailoutability 71
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74 Economic Growth Forecast for China (%) About 10% About 6% 73
75 1. Global Economic Weather Report 2. Economic Outlook Europe Grexit US China Russia/Ukraine 74
76 Source: nypost.com 75
77 76 Source: abcnews.com
78 77 Source: taringa.net
79 78 Source: businessinsider.com
80 Increase in income per person over the past 30 years in the world s major oil-rich nations* * Oil revenues are more than 10% of economic output * Population of three million people or more 11 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
81 Increase in income per person over the past 30 years in the world s major oil-rich nations* 6 th -best performance out of 163 countries in the world * Oil revenues are more than 10% of economic output * Population of three million people or more 153 out of out of out of Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
82 A barrier to manufacturing (especially exports) A barrier to democracy A target in war Rental income : control more valuable than creation 13
83 Increase in income per person over the past 30 years in the world s major oil-rich nations* Russia +$3,600 since 1998 A class by itself? Or, will the resource curse return? * Oil revenues are more than 10% of economic output * Population of three million people or more 11 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators
84 Economic Growth Forecast for Russia (%) 83
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87 86 Conclusion
88 OVERALL SUMMARY Eurozone Market impacts of brinksmanship ended in 2012 But people & companies are deleveraging Hence new normal growth, with some bright spots US Deleveraging largely complete. Q1 slowdown a one-off Hence return to growth; but will it be old normal? China No longer the world s credit engine. New normal is 6% per annum. And, might crash Russia Revenge of the resource curse. New normal is uncertain 87
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91 The World Did Not End in Q1 Sam Wilkin Senior Advisor, Business Research Blog:
Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics.
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