October 14, University of Missouri Extension

Transcription

1 October 14, 2014 University of Missouri Extension

2 Pat Guinan October 14, 2014

3 A benign growing season for much of Missouri, and the Midwest Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure from Average* April 2014 September 2014

4 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks July 2014 Period:

5 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 Sep 2014

6 Class A Pan Evaporation Apr-Sep (in.) HARC*, New Franklin, MO, Long-term average: in Highest water loss in 24 years *Horticulture and Agroforestry Research Center

7 Departure from Normal Precipitation (in.) Oct 1-12, 2014 Source: Regional Climate Centers

8 Precipitation (in.) Oct 1-12, 2014 Oct 1-13, 2014 Precipitation (in.) Troy 1.2NNE New Franklin 1.8E 9.86 California 0.3SW 9.75 Clinton 0.9NNW 9.72 Smithville 3.4E 9.53 Columbia 8.9E 9.35 Cole Camp 3.5WNW 9.30 Purdy 4.8SSW 9.19 Source: Regional Climate Centers

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11 Winter Temperature Outlook for Dec-Jan-Feb, Winter Precipitation Outlook for Dec-Jan-Feb, Issued: Sep 18, 2014 Issued: Sep 18,

12 Weather Resources on the Internet Missouri Climate Center River Information Resources for Missouri

13 David Reinbott October 14, 2014

14 Issues Impacting Prices Record corn yield ? Harvested acres down 1 2 million Rebound in demand Foreign corn production Corn acres in 2015

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16 Supply & Demand: Corn Sept To Oct Change Acres plant/harv. (mil.) 97.2/ / /83.1 Avg. yield/ac. (bu.) Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks Production Total Supply Use: Feed Ethanol Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Avg. price/bu. $6.89 $4.46 $ T

17 Supply & Demand: Corn Acres planted (mil.) 90.9/ / /82.2 Avg. yield/acre (bu.) Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks Production Total Supply Use: Feed Other Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Avg. price/bu. $3.40 $3.30 $3.20

18 Corn Ending Stocks Projections Matrix USDA Est. Beginning Stocks Billion Bushels Import Billion Bushels USDA Estimated Demand Billion Bushels Oct USDA Yield per Acre Harvested Acres Planted Acres Oct USDA

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23 Dec 2014 Corn Futures

24 Monthly Corn Futures

25 Cattle Outlook (title) Ron Plain October 14, 2014

26 Cents per Pound Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly Source: USDA/ERS

27 f Pounds U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption 2014 per capita meat consumption the lowest since 1991 Source: USDA/ERS

28 Million Head U.S. CALF, : 33.6 million head, down 1.0% Smallest calf crop since Source: USDA/NASS

29 Percent U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Production, monthly Imports Exports Source: USDA/ERS

30 CATTLE SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head Avg Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 6.4% JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

31 STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly Pounds Avg JAN APR JUL OCT 2014 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

32 TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head JAN Year-to-date cow slaughter is down 14.1% APR JUL OCT Avg Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

33 HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head JAN Year-to-date heifer slaughter is down 8.2% APR JUL OCT Avg Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

34 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Au Sep Oct Nov Dec Female Share of Slaughter U.S. Federally Inspected Cattle Slaughter Year-to-date female slaughter is down 10.6% Source: USDA/AMS

35 Mil. Head Cattle On Feed Large U.S. Feedlots, Monthly Sept 1 cattle on feed: down 0.8% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

36 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

37 $ Per Cwt Choice Steer Breakeven Price S. Plains Cattle Feedlots, Monthly 175 Breakeven Projected Breakeven Cost of Gain is roughly $70/cwt Source: LMIC

38 U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds Qtr 1 6,172 5,868 5,525* Qtr 2 6,516 6,183 6,100* Qtr 3 6,609 6,185 6,130* Qtr 4 6,423 6,120* 6,035* Year 25,720 24,356* 23,790* % Change % - 5.8% % + 1.3% % - 0.9% % - 1.4% % - 2.3% *forecast

39 5 Area Slaughter Steer Prices Choice Steers Per Live Hundredweight Qtr 1 $ $ $ $ * Qtr 2 $ $ $ $ * Qtr 3 $ $ $ $ * Qtr 4 $ $ $ * $ * Year $ $ $153.00* $ * *forecast

40 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Dollars Per Cwt Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price, Monthly Average Cash Futures Thru Feb 2016 all cattle futures contracts are above $156 per cwt

41 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Dollars Per Cwt OKC # Feeder Steer Price, Monthly Average Cash Futures Thru Sep 2015 all feeder cattle futures contracts are above $230 per cwt

42 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

43 David Reinbott October 14, 2014

44 Issues Impacting Prices Record soybean yield ? Harvested acres down 1 2 million Rebound in demand South America soybean acres Soybean acres in 2015 China exports

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46 Supply & Demand: Soybean Acres Planted (mil.) 77.2/ / /83.4 Avg. yield/acre (bu.) Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks Production Total Supply Use: Crush Other Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Avg. price/bu. $14.40 $13.00 $10.00 Sept To Oct Change -600K

47 Supply & Demand: Soybeans Acres planted (mil.) 84.2/ / /82.5 Avg. yield/acre (bu.) Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks Production Total Supply Use: Crush Other Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Avg. price/bu. $10.00 $9.50 $8.50

48 Soybean Ending Stocks Projections Matrix USDA Est. Beginning Stocks Billion Bushels Import Billion Bushels Estimated Demand Billion Bushels Oct USDA Yield per Acre Planted Acres Harvested Acres Oct USDA

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54 2014 November Soybeans

55 Monthly Soybean Futures

56 Hog Outlook (title) Ron Plain October 14, 2014

57 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Cents Per Pound U.S. Retail Pork Prices, Source: USDA/ERS

58 Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, $ Per Live Cwt Actual Forecast Marketing Month Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri

59 Head per mo. 800, ,000 U.S. Hog Imports from Canada Slaughter Hogs Feeders Pigs 600, , , , , ,000 0

60 Jan 06 APR JUL OCT Jan 07 APR JUL OCT Jan 08 APR JUL OCT Jan 09 Apr Jul Oct Jan 10 Apr Jul Oct Jan 11 Apr Jul Oct Jan 12 Apr Jul Oct Jan 13 Apr Jul Oct Jan 14 Apr Jul % of Production 30 U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent Imports Exports 0 Source: USDA/ERS

61 New Cases New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by Week PDCoV PEDV NAHLN Reports Source: AASV & NAHLN Week Ending

62 U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Month Head January 2014 PPL lowest since January 2009

63 Pounds 290 Barrow & Gilt Live Weights Iowa-Minnesota Weekly Average record JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

64 HOG SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 Avg ,900 1,800 1,700 JAN APR Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS JUL OCT 2014 Year-to-date hog slaughter is down 5.3%; pork production is down 1.7%

65 September Hog Inventory All Hogs & Pigs 97.7 Kept for Breeding Kept for Marketing 97.3 Under 50 lbs lbs lbs lbs. and over 94.3 Which do you believe? Dec-Feb Farrowings 99.2 Mar-May Farrowings 99.7 Jun-Aug Farrowings Sep-Nov Farrowing Intentions Dec-Feb Farrowing Intentions Source: USDA NASS

66 DJF99 DJF00 DJF01 DJF02 DJF03 DJF04 DJF05 DJF06 DJF07 DJF08 DJF09 DJF10 DJF11 DJF12 DJF13 DJF14 DJF15 % change from yr. ago Sows Farrowed By Quarter-U.S. -6 Source: USDA/NASS

67 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center H-P-09 10/06/14

68 Commercial Pork Production Forecast Million Pounds Qtr 1 5,777 5,785 5,910* Qtr 2 5,519 5,504 5,750* Qtr 3 5,622 5,490 5,860* Qtr 4 6,274 6,050* 6,405* Year 23,187 22,759* 23,925* Change % + 2.2% - 0.3% +4.5% - 3.2% +8.1% - 3.6% +5.9% - 1.8% +5.1% *forecast

69 Iowa-Minn Hog Price, Quarterly Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight Qtr 1 $84.78 $80.17 $94.97 $86-90* Qtr 2 $85.45 $89.33 $ $88-92* Qtr 3 $83.15 $95.36 $ $86-90* Qtr 4 $79.93 $82.36 $92-96* $74-78* Year $83.36 $86.87 $ * $84-88* *forecast price prior day puchased

70 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Dollars Per Cwt 150 Net Slaughter Hog Price, Monthly Average Cash Futures

71 $ Per Head Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, Iowa State University Calculations Actual Forecast -60 Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

72 David Reinbott October 14, 2014

73 Issues Impacting Prices World production and demand U.S. winter wheat acres

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75 Supply & Demand: Wheat Acres planted (mil.) K Avg. yield/acre (bu.) Supply: (bil. bu.) Beg. Stocks Production Total Supply Use: Feed Food & Seed Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Avg. price/bu. $7.77 $6.87 $5.90 Sept. to Oct. change

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79 December 2014 Wheat

80 July 2015 Wheat

81 Monthly Wheat

82 Joe Horner October 14, 2014

83 Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell Supply Neutral US cow numbers rising slowly US milk per cow rising US milk production rising 2.5% year over year US dairy product stocks rebuilding Demand Bearish Domestic weak fluid demand Exports NZ/AU production coming on strong Global dairy product prices falling significantly Outlook Profitable Margins remain as feed costs drop faster than milk prices Production constrained by cull prices and cow numbers

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87 Stocks Rising Bullish Neutral Neutral Neutral

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90 MPP Enrollment by Nov 28

91 Dairy Price Outlook 4th Quarter st Quarter USDA All Milk Price $22.80 $20.40 $19.40 Sept. 17, 2014 $23.30 $21.20 $20.40 CME Group Futures Class III October 10, CME Group Futures Class IV October 10, MO Farm Forecast $23.25 $19.25 $18.75

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