Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years
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1 AUTOMOTIVE Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years 22 September 2016 Hannover, Germany Andrej Divis, Director, IHS Automotive ,
2 2
3 Index, over 50 signals expansion 3 Markit manufacturing PMIs send mixed signals Purchasing (Index, over managers 50 indicates indexes expansion) United States Eurozone China Japan Sources: Markit 2016 IHS 3
4 Sep 09 Feb 10 Jul 10 Dez 10 Mai 11 Okt 11 Mrz 12 Aug 12 Jan 13 Jun 13 Nov 13 Apr 14 Sep 14 Feb 15 Jul 15 Dez 15 Mai 16 Millionen Millionen 4 Global Truck Demand: Where To Now? Sales >6T GVW rose rapidly in 2015 and have cooled since Global, annualized sales 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 Excl. China 2,4 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 World annualized trend (BRIC & Triad) Excl. China
5 Dollars/barrel 5 Crude-oil prices will gradually recover Price of Dated Brent crude oil Source: IHS 2016 IHS 5
6 IHS weekly indexes, 2002:1=1 6 Industrial materials prices rebound but remain low IHS Materials Price Index All industrial materials Chemicals Nonferrous metals Source: IHS 2016 IHS
7 Percent change 7 Emerging markets will lead a pickup in global growth Real GDP World Advanced countries Emerging markets Source: IHS 2016 IHS 7
8 Annual percent change 8 Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) to expand fastest Real GDP NAFTA Other Americas Western Europe Emerging Europe Mideast- N. Africa Sub- Saharan Africa Japan Other Asia- Pacific Source: IHS 2016 IHS
9 9 As goes the Economy, so go New-Truck Sales Economic output vs. new-truck sales for selected countries (logarithmic scale) rising newtruck sales 44k 8k 3k 1k Larger economy
10 10 Expansion Will Accelerate World Freight Demand Rise IHS World Industry Service (WIS): Gross freight transport, in real $US bn year avg: CAGR 3.4% 2.1% 2.7% 3.1%
11 11 In Quantity, Land Transport Will Rise Most IHS World Industry Service (WIS): Gross freight transport, rise in real $US bn. Land transport +19% by 2021 Pipeline Water Air $0 $100 $200 $300 $400
12 Millionen 12 Truck Sales to Hit New High in 2019, 3.0m in 2021 Global >6T GVW truck sales, forecast in total and by region 3,0 2,9 2,8 2,7 2,6 2,5 3, m EE 14% NA 10% MEA 1% WE 12% SA 6% of the growth APAC 57% 2,4 2,47
13 Millionen Millionen 13 Majority of Rise Accrues to Heavies in APAC Different growth picture for medium-duties, w/ other regions having larger role 2,5 6-15T sales >15T sales 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 2,0 1,5 1,0 SA APAC 0,5 0,0 0,5 0,0 NA EE WE
14 14 BRIC-Market Share to Remain Below 50% %share of >6T GVW global truck sales of Brazil, China, India and Russia 80% 70% Peak share of 67% of global sales 60% 50% 50% 40% 46% 30%
15 Tausende 15 Truck sales by OEM Group ( ) Top 15 OEMs (2015) will enjoy much but not all of 0.5m f cast unit-sales rise
16 Millionen 16 Production Increases Proportionately With Sales 3,3 3,2 3,1 3,0 2,9 2,8 2,7 >6T global output incl.kits 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% SA NA EE WE APAC
17 17 Plant Utilization Improves, But Overcapacity Persists Recovering from crisis, mature markets have seen sharp reductions in plants 120 >6T truck plant count Production capacity utilization 80 70% % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
18 Model Renewal Accelerates OEMs on track to replace or renew larger %volume in than New programs (Triad) By 2020 ½ of Triad sales new vs Dutro Kazet Giga Actros FH XF FM T-Series C/K-Series Antos Arocs Daily D-Series Elite 6 VNX R-Series S-Series T K T880 F WS.5700 Ch. COE F450/550 HX LT Cascadia
19 19
20 Tausende 20 Bus Demand Reflects Population & Urbanization Rise Unlike trucks, global medium- and large-bus segment has not seen downturn Regional bus builds (>6T) 5-year avg: CAGR 1.6% SA APAC NA EE WE Bus fleet size vs. %urban pop. BE CH UK ES RU TK 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
21 21 Conclusions Current year is seeing a slowdown in economic growth and freight tonnage growth, resulting in a decline in global truck sales in recent months, after strong YTD; however, full-year sales projection remains up on 2015, about 3% y/y higher, led by China & India. North & South America down. Despite shaky YTD truck selling rates in many markets and mixed economic data, prospects are good for an acceleration in economic growth in 2017 and 2018 (healthy household finances). Global truck sales in 2017 forecasted up 4% y/y to 2.6m Truck-sales growth will be driven by ongoing recovery in most of the BRICs as well as solid upward momentum in Western Europe Big OEM players will benefit most, but some smaller OEMs will gain disproportionately Production will rise too, also about 3% in , returning utilization in the triad to relatively healthy levels; however, rest-of-world utilization still suffers from overcapacity. The bus sector has seen less volatility than the truck market, and bus-market fundamentals are healthy for the medium- term. Buses reach pre-crisis levels in and new record by 2021.
22 22 Further Down the Road
23 23 Thank you
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