WHERE ARE ARIZONA DEMOGRAPHICS TAKING US? HOW GROWING SLOWER, OLDER AND MORE DIVERSE AFFECTS REAL ESTATE

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1 WHERE ARE ARIZONA DEMOGRAPHICS TAKING US? HOW GROWING SLOWER, OLDER AND MORE DIVERSE AFFECTS REAL ESTATE March 2017 Tom Rex Office of the University Economist and Center for Competitiveness and Prosperity Research, L. William Seidman Research Institute

2 OVERALL POPULATION Annual population estimates are expressed as of July 1. Estimates for Arizona and its counties are available back to 1929 from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. In addition, the Arizona Office of Employment and Population Statistics (OEPS) has produced annual estimates since The 2016 population of Arizona was million according to the OEPS and million according to the Census Bureau. Using OEPS estimates, two thirds of the population lived in the metro Phoenix area (Maricopa and Pinal counties), less than 15% in the Tucson area (Pima County), and less than 19% in the balance of the state (the other 12 counties).

3 Annual Population Change, United States (Census Bureau) 3,600,000 3,000,000 2,400,000 1,800,000 1,200, ,

4 Annual Population Change, Arizona (Census Bureau) 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,

5 Annual Population Change, Arizona 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, OEPS Census Bureau

6 Annual Population Change Within Arizona (Census Bureau) 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Metro Phoenix Metro Tucson Balance of State

7 Annual Population Change Within Arizona (OEPS) 150, , ,000 75,000 50,000 25, , Metro Phoenix Metro Tucson Balance of State

8 Annual Average Population Change by Economic Cycle, Arizona (Census Bureau Through 2000, OEPS Since) 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,

9 Annual Average Population Change by Economic Cycle Within Arizona (Census Bureau Through 2000, OEPS Since) 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Metro Phoenix Metro Tucson Balance of State

10 Arizona s Share of the National Population (Census Bureau for Nation) 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% 1.00% 0.75% Census Bureau Estimates OEPS Estimates

11 Annual Population Percent Change, Arizona (Census Bureau Through 2000, OEPS Since) 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

12 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE Population change consists of the sum of: Net natural change (births minus deaths) Net migration (in-migration minus out-migration) When possible, net migration is split into two pieces: Net domestic migration Net international migration

13 Births and Deaths

14 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 Net Natural Change, United States (National Center for Health Statistics) Births Deaths Net Natural Change

15 Net Natural Change, Arizona (Arizona Department of Health Services) 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Births Deaths Net Natural Change

16 Crude Rates of Net Natural Change, Arizona (Arizona Department of Health Services) Births Deaths Net Natural Change

17 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Births by Race/Ethnicity of Mother, Arizona (Arizona Department of Health Services) 5, White non-hispanic Hispanic or Latino Other

18 Total Fertility Rate (Arizona Department of Health Services and World Bank) 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1, Arizona Replacement Rate United States

19 Total Fertility Rate by Race/Ethnicity, Arizona (Arizona Department of Health Services) 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1, Hispanic NH Black NH Asian NH White NH Native American

20 Migration Net international migration as a share of the nation s population change since 1970 has averaged 38.5%, but has varied from less than 20% to more than 50%. Net migration international and domestic as a share of Arizona s population change has averaged 66.7% since 1970, but has varied from negative to 80%.

21 Components of Population Change, United States (Census Bureau and National Center for Health Statistics) 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , Net Natural Change Net International Migration

22 Components of Population Change, Arizona (Census Bureau, OEPS, and Arizona Department of Health Services) 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40, Net Natural Change Net Migration

23 Components of Population Change, Arizona (Decennial Census Counts and Vital Records) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Population Change Net Migration Net Natural Change

24 Components of Population Change, Arizona, 2010 Through 2016 (Census Bureau Estimates) Population Change Net Migration Net Natural Change Births Deaths Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration -400, , , , ,000

25 Migration From Another State or From Abroad, United States (Census Bureau) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, % 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Number in Thousands (left axis) Percent (right axis)

26 Percentage of the U.S. Population Moving in a Year (Census Bureau) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

27 Net Migration Rate, Arizona (University of Wisconsin)

28 Net Domestic Migration, Arizona (Internal Revenue Service) 250, , , , , , ,000 75,000 50,000 25, , In-Migration Out-Migration Net Migration

29 DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION Characteristics of the population include race/ethnicity, age, homeownership, etc. The decennial census was the primary source of this information through The American Community Survey (ACS) has provided such information annually since 2005, but survey error is a concern.

30 Race/Ethnicity

31 Race/Ethnicity, Share of Population, Arizona (Decennial Census) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hispanic origin NH Black NH Asian or Pacific Islander NH White NH Native American NH Other race

32 Race/Ethnic Distribution, Arizona Less United States, 2015 (American Community Survey) Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Native American NH Asian NH Other -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

33 Race/Ethnicity, Percentage Point Change in Share, Arizona (Census Bureau) NH Other/Multiple Race NH Asian or Pacific Islander NH Native American NH Black NH White Hispanic origin

34 Race/Ethnicity, Projected Share of Population, Arizona (OEPS) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hispanic origin NH Black NH Asian or Pacific Islander NH White NH Native American NH Other race

35 Per Capita Income by Race/Ethnicity, Arizona, 2015 (American Community Survey) Hispanic Asian Native American Black NH White TOTAL $0 $7,500 $15,000 $22,500 $30,000 $37,500

36 Age As defined by generation birth dates: G.I. Generation ( Greatest Generation ): roughly (ages 90 and older) Silent Generation : roughly (ages 71-89) Baby-Boom Generation : (ages 52-70) Baby-Bust Generation ( Generation X ): 1965-roughly 1980 (ages 36-51) Millennial Generation ( Generation Y or Baby-Boom Echo ): roughly (ages 16-35) Post-Millennial Generation ( Generation Z ): roughly since 2001 (younger than 16)

37 Number of Births in United States and Generations 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000, G.I. Silent Baby Boom Baby Bust Millennial Post-Millenial

38 Age Distribution, Arizona Less United States, 2015 (American Community Survey) <5-0.8% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8%

39 Change in Population by Age Group, Arizona, 2010-to-2015 (American Community Survey) 105,000 90,000 75,000 60,000 45,000 30,000 15, ,000-30,000 < % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Numeric Change (left axis) Percent Change (right axis)

40 Percent Change in Population by Age Group, 2010 to 2015, Arizona Less United States (American Community Survey) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% < Age Group Overall

41 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Share of Population by Age Group, Arizona (Census Bureau and OEPS Projections) 1% < Age Group

42 Change in Share of Population by Age Group, Arizona (Census Bureau and OEPS Projections) 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% Age Group

43 Share of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity, Arizona, 2015 (American Community Survey) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% < NH White Hispanic Other

44 Share of Age-Group Population by Race/Ethnicity, Arizona (American Community Survey, 2015) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total < Age Group NH White Hispanic Other

45 Migration Rate by Age Group, Arizona (University of Wisconsin) Age Group

46 Migration From Another State or From Abroad, United States, , by Age Group (Census Bureau) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% <

47 Percentage of the U.S. Population Who Moved in , by Age Group (Census Bureau) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% <

48 Educational Attainment of Workers, Ages 25 to 64, in % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Less than high school graduate High school graduate Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher United States Arizona

49 Educational Attainment, Age 25 and Older High School Graduate or More Bachelor s Degree or More 90% 35% 80% 30% 70% 25% 60% 20% 50% 15% 40% 10% 30% 5% 20% % United States Arizona United States Arizona

50 Homeownership

51 69% 67% 65% 63% 61% 59% 57% Homeownership (American Community Survey) 55% Arizona United States

52 Homeownership by Race/Ethnicity of Householder, Arizona, 2015 (American Community Survey) Hispanic Asian Native American Black NH White TOTAL 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

53 Homeownership by Age of Householder, Arizona (American Community Survey) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% < Age Group

54 Homeownership by Educational Attainment of Householder, Arizona, 2015 (American Community Survey) Bachelor's degree or higher Some college or associate's degree High school graduate (including equivalency) Less than high school graduate TOTAL 0% 25% 50% 75%

55 Summary of Demographic Effects on Real Estate Slower: Lesser population and economic growth than what has been experienced historically lesser demand for all types of real estate. Older: As people age, they move less frequently, resulting in fewer home sales. An aging population also purchases smaller homes with smaller yards. Health-related businesses and the real estate supporting them experience greater demand. More Diverse: As the population composition shifts from non- Hispanic whites to Hispanics, residential real estate is affected. The lower incomes of Hispanics means lower homeownership and a higher proportion of lower-priced homes being sold. Demand increases for moderate-priced apartments and rental single-family homes.

56 Why Has the Growth Rate in Arizona in This Cycle Been So Slow? Elliott Pollack cited two factors: The subnormal national economic recovery. The slowdown in population flows nationally and locally, which has the following effects: Lower job creation in population-support activities. Slower absorption of excess inventory. Even after controlling for the national growth rate, aggregate growth rates in Arizona still are far below the historical norm. Lesser net immigration and lower domestic migration rates nationally contribute to, but do not fully explain, Arizona s much slower growth.

57 Annual Average Real Percent Change, Arizona Difference From U.S. Average 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Economic Cycle, Peak to Peak Employment Per Capita Earnings Per Worker Earnings

58 Percent Change, Arizona Less United States, Current Cycle Recession: Per Worker GDP Per Worker Earnings Per Capita GDP Per Capita Personal Income Gross Domestic Product Employment Expansion: Per Worker GDP Per Worker Earnings Per Capita GDP Per Capita Personal Income Gross Domestic Product Employment -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2%

59 Economic Dichotomy Base (traded-sector) economic activities drive regional economies, but account for only about 30 percent of total employment. Traded economic activities are those that sell their goods and services to customers outside the region. Importing money into the region is necessary since leakages of money are inevitable no region produces all of the goods and services desired by its residents. Most traded activities can locate anywhere, since their customers are spread out across the country or the world. Economic development focuses on attracting, growing, and retaining traded activities.

60 Economic Dichotomy (cont d) Local (nontraded) economic activities are location specific since they sell their goods and services to customers within the region. Local activities do not display geographic concentrations across the country. Their presence is largely proportional to a region s size, as defined by purchasing power. While an integral part of a regional economy, nontraded activities do not import money into the region. Their presence is due to the traded activities. Traded activities drive the economy while nontraded activities respond to growth in the traded activities.

61 Economic Development Economic development focuses on base activities. Success is dependent on an area s business climate/competitiveness. The most important site selection factors are 1. Workforce quality and availability: largely dependent on education achievement and attainment and workforce training. 2. Physical infrastructure quality and availability: transportation, utilities, telecommunications, etc. 3. Costs: particularly labor, but also taxes (evaluated in relation to the availability and quality of public services), real estate, and energy.

62 Arizona s Business Climate Arizona generally compares favorably on cost measures. Arizona is in the middle of the states on the physical infrastructure. On workforce quality the most important factor Arizona compares unfavorably. Its evaluation on workforce quality has declined over time. Overall, Arizona ranks in the middle of the states on the most reliable studies of business climate: #27 according to the Beacon Hill Institute and #26 according to Forbes.

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