IRELAND: EUROPE S FASTEST GROWING ECONOMY
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1 IRELAND: EUROPE S FASTEST GROWING ECONOMY Remarkable turnaround story continues to get better S&P Capital IQ June 9 th, 2015
2 Index Page 3: Macroeconomy Page 13: Fiscal & NTMA Funding Page 23: Rebalancing 2
3 SECTION 1: MACROECONOMY Ireland s already robust cyclical recovery boosted by drop in value of euro, oil price decline and (say it quietly!) euro area economic pick up 3
4 Net exports and investment drove 4.8% GDP growth in real terms in 2014 % Domestic Demand contributed to growth for first time since highlighting a more broad based recovery f 2016f Domestic Demand Net Exports Change in Inventories GDP Change Source: CSO; Department of Finance( forecast from SPU 2015 material); NTMA workings 4
5 Nominal GDP ( bn) forecasted to exceed pre-crisis peak in % 6.9% 5.4% 4.2% f 2017f Source: Department of Finance (SPU April 2015) 5
6 Energy prices and weaker euro likely to boost GDP growth further in Brent Oil /Barrel 120 Ireland s trade-weighted (Jan 95 = 100) Most competitive since early 2000s Source: Bloomberg Source: CSO, NTMA workings 6
7 Ireland s open economy translates into a strong response of Irish goods exports to euro devaluation A 1% devaluation in the euro raises Irish goods exports to the US by 1% 1.2% Response of Irish Exports to 1% Devaluation of Euro The equivalent figure for the UK is 0.5% and the rest of world is 0.9% 1.0% % 0.89 The EUR/USD exchange rate has a positive effect (elasticity of 0.37) on Irish goods exports to the EA, due to Irish-based multinational companies exports to EA for onward sale to the rest of the world 0.6% 0.4% % The elasticity of total goods exports excluding pharma to the exchange rate >1 0.0% US UK EA ROW EXP EXL PHA Source: CSO; NTMA analysis Note: All coefficients significant at 99% level 7
8 Labour market has recovered since 2012, though employment growth rate slowed in s Employment up 6% from cyclical low Unemployment rate down to 9.9% in Q Down >5pp from peak in three yrs Source: CSO
9 Rising employment and house price rises lift retail sales; confidence back at mid-2000s level Consumer confidence recovers Core * retail sales rise steadily Source: KBC, ESRI, CSO Volume Index (2005 = 100) Value Index (2005 = 100) *Excluding motor trade 9
10 Mild deflation driven by lower oil prices - underpinning real incomes 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Source: CSO Ireland HICP % change yoy Euro area HICP % change yoy 10
11 % of Disposable Income Interest burden high but suppressed by trackers; savings rate around euro area average % of Disposable Income (4Q MA) Interest burden on households has been suppressed by tracker mortgages 14 14% 18 Gross household saving rate rises, despite improving income prospects 12 12% % % 6% 4% 2% Euro Area Benchmark Ireland Italy Sweden Source: Eurostat, CSO Germany Spain Netherlands United Kingdom 0% Source: Eurostat, CSO Note: Interest burden is actual (i.e. excludes FISIM adjustment) and is calculated as a share of actual gross disposable income. FISIM estimates for Ireland in 2013 based on unchanged 2012 figures 2 EA-18 Ireland UK EU-28 11
12 Investment is rising from a low base, but plenty of scope for further expansion 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Building Investment % GDP M&E ex-planes % GDP Intangibles % GDP Source: CSO * 2014 figures estimated using first 3 quarters growth for
13 SECTION 2: FISCAL & NTMA FUNDING Ireland s Government debt ratio forecast to drop to 105% of GDP in 2015; country will reach landmark by exiting Excessive Deficit Procedure too 13
14 Four straight years of fiscal outperformance General Government Balance (% of GDP) f GGB EU target under EDP December 2010 Source: Department of Finance (SPU April 2015) CSO; Eurostat; 14
15 Ireland s mammoth fiscal turnaround Deficit to be fully closed by 2018 ( bn) 20% reduction in primary expenditure ( bn) f General Government Expenditure General Government Revenue Not easy to do in near-zero inflation environment f Nominal Real (Base =1997) Source: CSO; Department of Finance 15
16 Ireland has confirmed debt sustainability: debt is falling naturally through snowball effect 9 6 Primary surplus for 2015 expected; for first time since f 2016f 2018f Primary Balance Interest GGB Structural Balance (% potential GDP) Source: Department of Finance; Eurostat; IMF 16
17 Average interest on total Government debt below 4%; so interest rate-growth maths (i-g) in Ireland s favour 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% f 2018f GDP Growth (g) Source: Department of Finance forecasts; DataStream Average Interest Rate (i) 17
18 Gross Government debt fell to 110% of GDP at end- 2014; likely to drop to 105% by end Peak Net debt of 86.6% forecasted for F 2016F 2017F 2018F Net Debt Cash balances/other EDP assets GG Debt Source: Department of Finance (Forecasts from SPU April 2015), CSO, NTMA workings 18
19 Net Government debt ratio (% GDP) now below that of Belgium our closest bond market counterpart Ireland Belgium Greece Italy Portugal Spain Net General Government Debt = Gross General Government Debt - EDP Assets EDP Assets = Currency and Deposits + Securities other than Shares (excluding financial derivatives) + Loans Note: EDP assets are all financial assets (excluding equities) held by general government Source: CSO; DataStream; NTMA analysis 19
20 Billions Improved maturity profile following IMF repayment Bond (Fixed) IMF EFSM EFSF Bond (Floating Rate) Bilateral Source: NTMA Note: EFSM loans are subject to a 7-year extension that will bring their weighted-average maturity from 12.5 years to 19.5 years. It is not expected that Ireland will refinance any of its EFSM loans before As such we have placed the EFSM loan maturity dates in the range although these may be subject to change. 20
21 Ireland s average maturity favourable when compared with other euro area countries 18 Debt Average Maturity Life (Years) IR IT PT GR ES BE FR FI AT NL Source: NTMA Bond Avg Maturity Life Adding Trokia Loan Maturity Life Bond Avg Life 21
22 NTMA has been funding approximately 12 months in advance; IMF repayments raised 2015 requirement Billions 20 Medium-term funding requirement improved following restructuring of IBRC Promissory Note, extension of EFSF/EFSM maturities and IMF deal ST Debt 3 18bn worth of IMF repaid in 2014/15 through new issuance and existing cash balances. NTMA pre-funded for whole of It expects to issue 12-15bn worth of long term bonds in bn has been issued so far in Exchequer had 11.1bn of cash and other liquid assets at end Open Cash 11.1 Y/E bn IMF Repay 9.3 Bond 2.2 EBR 3.5 Outflows + 15bn Long Term Debt (LT) 12 to 15 Funding ( 15-18bn) Close Cash 11.1 Y/E bn Bond 8.1 EBR Outflow 11.25bn Source: NTMA; Department of Finance 1. EBR is the Exchequer Borrowing Requirement 2. EFSF loans have been extended by a weighted average of seven years. EFSM loans are also subject to a 7- year extension. It is not expected that Ireland will have to refinance any of its EFSM loans before A 5bn EFSM loan originally due to mature in 2015 is therefore no longer part of the Latest Est. Funding Requirement. 22
23 SECTION 3: IRELAND'S RECOVERY IN EUROPEAN CONTEXT Ireland has become leaner, cheaper and relatively attractive to investors 23
24 Ireland s economy outperformed the rest of the euro area in 2014 and expected to do so again in 2015/ Department of Finance (April-15) Median Forecast (Oct 14 -Mar 15) Euro Area (Jan-15) Germany (Jan-15) France (Jan-15) Note: Real GDP y-o-y growth rates forecast by various institutions Source: Median forecast based on forecasts from IMF, EU Commission, ESRI and CBI. Euro area, France and Germany forecasts based on EU Commission projections. 24
25 High frequency indicators show uniform recovery is much stronger than euro area s Ireland growing faster than EA (PMI composite difference (pts.)) All sectors growing (PMI chg. as cumulative index level, June 2000=100) Source: Markit; Bloomberg; NTMA workings PMI Services as index (June 2000 = 100) PMI Manufacturing index PMI Construction index 25
26 Ireland s fiscal adjustment route quicker than peers Change to nominal GDP (%) F -2 EU EDP Target of -3% GGB % GDP shrinks quickly even during zero growth period Ireland Portugal Spain France Source: European Commission, DataStream Note: All black markers are 2009 starting points Underlying GGB % of GDP 26
27 Ireland s competitive position is different to the other non-core countries Relative Real Effective Exchange Rates have corrected sharply (base:2002=100) % Current Account balance (% GDP) 140 5% 130 0% 120-5% % % Ireland France Spain Ireland Portugal Spain Italy Portugal Belgium Greece Italy Belgium Source: AMECO Note: REERs are deflated by unit labour costs and measure performance relative to 36 industrial countries - double export weights Source: Eurostat; NTMA Workings Note Ireland s CA Balance re-calculated using ESA 2010 compliant GDP series 27
28 % decline since peak Competitiveness recovery still exceptional even when compositional effects are accounted for Competitiveness gains not explained away by shift to highly productive/ less labour-intensive sectors Source: Bruegel, Real effective exchange rates for 178 countries: a new database Note: REERs cover business sector excluding agriculture, construction and real estate activities and are calculated against 30 trading partners using fixed weights from Q Data available to Q See Darvas, Z (2012) for more details. 28
29 Internal devaluation enabled recovery of lost price competitiveness, but low EA inflation slows progress 130 Ireland closed the gap quickly between 2008 and 2010 (index: euro area=100) e Source: Eurostat; NTMA workings Note: Price levels are based on household final consumption expenditure including indirect taxes 29
30 Irish banks have higher regulatory ratios than banks in non-core countries 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% CET1 Transitional CET1 Fully Loaded Ireland Italy Spain Portugal Source: Various banks financial reports, NTMA workings Note: Based on the biggest 3 domestic banks in each country for
31 % Latest ECB data show dispersion in SME interest rates persisting across EA (new NFC loans <1yr, < 1m) 8 7 Rates on loans (< 1m) to Irish NFCs over 150bps over EA average Over 150bps Max Min Ireland Euro Area Source: ECB Note: Annualised Agreed Rate is defined by the ECB as the interest rate that is individually agreed between the reporting agent and the NFC for a loan, converted to an annual basis and quoted in percentages per annum. The rate shall cover all interest payments on loans, but no other charges that may apply. 31
32 World China Chile Korea Israel Russia Ireland Iceland Cyprus Poland US New Zealand Australia Romania Canada Luxembourg Norway Malta Lithuania Slovenia Czech Rep. Hungary Estonia Netherlands UK Spain Austria Bulgaria Belgium Switzerland EU-27 Denmark Portugal France Finland Greece Sweden Germany Italy Hungary Romania Poland Latvia Portugal Germany Spain Malta Italy Austria Czech Rep. Greece Slovakia Croatia Cyprus Bulgaria Estonia Luxembourg Switzerland Euro area Slovenia EU-27 Denmark Lithuania Netherlands Finland Belgium Norway Sweden UK Iceland France Ireland Turkey Favourable population characteristics underpin debt sustainability over longer term Old age dependency ratio (65+ : ages 15-64) compares well against OECD countries Fertility rates in Ireland are above typical international replacement rates Source: World Bank WDI; OECD 32
33 Irish house price valuation is still attractive versus European countries 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Deviation from average price-to-income ratio BG UK SD NW FR OE DK IT NL FN GR IR PT ES BD Deviation from average price-to-rent ratio NW SD UK BG FN FR OE DK LX BD IT NL IR ES GR PT Source: OECD, NTMA workings Note: Measured as % over or under valuation relative to long term averages since All data updated to 2014 Q3 33
34 Ireland continues to attract foreign investment (average FDI inflows per annum as a share of GDP, ) Ireland has the second largest average annual FDI inflows as a % of GDP in the EU Source: UNCTADStat 34
35 Disclaimer The information in this presentation is issued by the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) for informational purposes. The contents of the presentation do not constitute investment advice and should not be read as such. The presentation does not constitute and is not an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities. The NTMA makes no warranty, express or implied, nor assumes any liability or responsibility for the accuracy, correctness, completeness, availability, fitness for purpose or use of any information that is available in this presentation nor represents that its use would not infringe other proprietary rights. The information contained in this presentation speaks only as of the particular date or dates included in the accompanying slides. The NTMA undertakes no obligation to, and disclaims any duty to, update any of the information provided. Nothing contained in this presentation is, or may be relied on as a promise or representation (past or future) of the Irish State or the NTMA. The contents of this presentation should not be construed as legal, business or tax advice. 35
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