Three-speed economic recovery

Transcription

1 Three-speed economic recovery Projection after 2012 GDP growth, percent Euro area Source: IMF WEO, April Emerging market and developing economies U.S.

2 China will dominate the world s economy Composition of global GDP in 2005 PPPs Percent of global GDP in 2011 Percent of global GDP in 2030 Rest of the World 25% United States 23% Rest of the World 27% China 28% Other OECD 18% Euro area 17% China 17% Other OECD 15% Euro area 12% United States 18% Source: OECD Economic Outlook 91 long-term database.

3 Unemployment remains high in Eurozone Unemployment rates (percent) 12 Eurozone 10 8 U.S. 6 U.K. 4 Japan Source: Datastream.

4 The Fed has engaged in quantitative easing repeatedly Total assets of Federal Reserve banks (US$ trillions) /2009: QE1 expanded 11/2008: QE1 announced 09/2011: "Operation Twist" 11/2010: QE2 announced 9/2012: QE3 announced Sources: Federal Reserve, Milken Institute.

5 S&P 500 volatility has decreased Chicago Board Options SPX Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) Pre-crisis average, 2004 to June 2007: Source: Bloomberg.

6 Record low ten-year treasury yields Ten-year Treasury yield, percent Average: 6.7 percent Source: Bloomberg

7 U.S. gross public debt is roughly equal national income Percent of GDP Gross Federal debt Federal debt held by public Source: White House. 7

8 China s growth slows Quarterly GDP growth rate Percent change, year ago Average, : 9.6% 2012: 7.8% Source: IMF.

9 Instability is increasing in the Middle East Political stability and absence of violence/terrorism index (-2.5 = greatest instability) Political Stability Index Source: World Bank Yemen Syria Lebanon Iran Israel Egypt Libya Morocco Jordan Saudi Arabia UAE

10 U.S. cost of post-9/11 wars Department of Defense appropriations US$ billions / (est) Iraq Afghanistan Source: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University.

11 Iran and Gulf armor strength 2012 Number of units Main battle tanks AIFV/Recce/Lt. tanks APC's AIFV/Recce/Lt. tanks not included 0 Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar UAE Yemen Israel Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies and Institute for National Security Studies.

12 Iran and Gulf naval strength 2012 Number of units Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Major Naval Forces Gulf warships with anti ship missiles Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar UAE Yemen Israel Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies and Institute for National Security Studies.

13 U.S. troops on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq January 2002 December 2012 Number of troops 180, ,000 Iraq 120,000 90,000 60,000 Afghanistan 30, Source: Congressional Research Service and Brookings Institute.

14 Top 10 largest arms exporters Russia 26% U.S. 30% Germany (FRG) 8% Others 12% France 6% China 5% UK 4% Italy 2% Ukraine 2% Spain 3% Israel 2% Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

15 Top 10 largest arms importers India, 11.7% China, 5.6% Pakistan, 5.3% South Korea, 4.9% Others, 50.5% Singapore, 4.1% Algeria, 3.9% Australia, 3.9% Saudi Arabia, 3.1% UAE, 3.2% U.S. 3.3% Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

16 Top three arms exporters Constant 1990 US$ billions USA 14 Russia 12 Germany (FRG) Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

17 Largest arms suppliers to India Arms exports to India and other selected countries Singapore South Korea Pakistan China Israel Uzbekistan U.K. Italy India Russia U.S. Others Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute US$ billions

18 Egypt s military expenditure Percent of GDP Source: World Bank.

19 Egypt s arms imports Constant 1990 US$ billions Source: Stockholm Peace Research Institute.

20 Mexico s drug war murders Number of murders per month 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Source: The Guardian and Trans-Border Institute, University of San Diego.

21 Top global seizures of amphetamines 2012 Mexico China Saudi Arabia U.S. Thailand Laos Syria Iraq Iran Germany (2) (2) (2) (3) (4) (9) (14) (14) (15) (20) Source: UNODC Thousand metric tons (percent of world total)

22 Income inequality: Selected countries 2012 South Africa Brazil Nigeria China U.S. U.K. India Japan Egypt Sweden Gini coefficients, maximum income inequality = Sources: The Economist, OECD, World Bank.

23 Countries with biggest improvement in human development index since 1990 Percent increase in human developement index, South Korea Iran China Chile Saudi Arabia Argentina Malaysia Tunisia Turkey Qatar Note: Human development index is a composite index of indicators of life expectancy, educational attainment and income. Sources: The Economist, UNDP.

24 World s poorest countries in education, health and living standards 2012 Niger Ethiopia Mali Burundi Burkina Faso Liberia Guinea Somalia Mozambique Sierra Leone Percentage of population in multidimensional poverty Note: Multidimensional poverty index is calculated based on data on household deprivations in education, health and living standards. Source: UNDP.

25 Larry Zimpleman slides

26 Global Risks That Keep Me Up at Night Economic Risk, Operational Risk and Cyber Risk Economic Risk United States Overuse of Monetary Policy Eurozone Austerity Fatigue China Out of the Shadows Globally Balkanization in Extreme

27 Global Risks That Keep Me Up at Night Economic Risk, Operational Risk and Cyber Risk Operational Risk Accounting Risk Is Fair Value, Fair? Regulatory Risk Regulators Amuck?

28 Global Risks That Keep Me Up at Night Economic Risk, Operational Risk and Cyber Risk Cyber Risk The New Dynamic Not Nerds Anymore The Hacker s Goal Front Door, Back Door The Best Defense Teamwork, Teamwork, Teamwork

29 This 12-story building on the outskirts of Shanghai is the headquarters of Unit of the People s Liberation Army Source: New York Times.