Climate Change and Hydrology in the Sierra Nevada. Lorrie Flint U.S. Geological Survey Sacramento CA
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1 Climate Change and Hydrology in the Sierra Nevada Lorrie Flint U.S. Geological Survey Sacramento CA
2 Discussion Topics Climate change for California Methods to evaluate hydrologic impacts Water balance modeling Downscaling projections Processes contributing to impacts Timing of springtime snowmelt Soil moisture Cold air pooling and refugia Climatic water deficit Changes in delivery mechanisms: recharge vs runoff Implications for land and resource management
3 Climate for California: current and future conditions 4 scenarios Precipitation, mm/yr Historical GFDL- A2 GFDL- B1 PCM- A2 PCM- B1 Maximum Air Temperature, C Historical GFDL- A2 GFDL- B1 PCM- A2 PCM- B1
4 Climate for California: Extremes Atmospheric Rivers!
5 Climate Change and Extremes
6 Translating climate change to hydrologic response Requires an approach to simulate hydrology from available information Basin Characterization Model (BCM) grid-based data uses climate data, soils, and geology to calculate potential evapotranspiration recharge and runoff actual ET climatic water deficit snow accumulation and snow melt
7 Sublimation Precipitation Solar radiation Snow accumulation Air temperature Potential evapotranspiration Snowmelt Watershed available water (excess water) Actual evapotranspiration Climatic water deficit (PET-AET) Recharge Basin discharge Runoff Groundwater recharge
8 Soil moisture storage from SSURGO soils
9
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11 Impacts of a changing climate on hydrologic processes Soil moisture Snowpack and springtime runoff Changes in mechanisms for water delivery, partitioning recharge and runoff Cold-air pooling and refugia Climatic water deficit Demand estimates Landscape stress and resiliency
12 Soil water influences on water availability 120 0'0"W Available Soil Storage (mm) '0"W
13 1998 April 1 st Soil Water Content '0"W 120 0'0"W
14 April 1 st Snow Water Equivalent 120 0'0"W SWE lost to soils over melt season 120 0'0"W Relative volume (mm) 120 0'0"W 120 0'0"W
15 April 1 st Snow Water Equivalent 120 0'0"W SWE lost to soils over melt season 120 0'0"W Relative volume (mm) 120 0'0"W 120 0'0"W
16 Changes in April 1 st snowpack (SWE) Change from baseline ( ) to current ( ) Decreases due to warming at all but the highest elevations
17 Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios 12-km Kilometers Data are spatially downscaled to 270-m using Gradient-Inverse- Distance-Squared interpolation for hydrologic model application For every month an equation is developed for every grid cell using northing, easting, and elevation to incorporate elevational and regional gradients 270-m SIERRA NEVADA OWENS VALLEY Maximum Air Temperature June 2035 (C)
18
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20 Upper Tuolumne Basin GFDL A2 9 Minimum air temperature, degrees C Precipitation, mm/yr
21 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , Runoff, ac-ft August 0 200, , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600, Runoff, ac-ft December 0 100, , , , , , Runoff, ac-ft June 0 200, , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400, Runoff, ac-ft March Upper Tuolumne Basin Surface runoff contribution, no baseflow
22 120 0'0"W Changes in Recharge/Runoff Mechanisms How water is delivered to the system will change 40 0'0"N < > 2 Rch/run increases Rch/run decreases 35 0'0"N Loss of snow cover increases recharge Higher peak flows and compressed wet season increase runoff where there is shallow soils or no snow cover Deep soils can maintain recharge processes with compressed season, higher peaks, and increasing aridity 120 0'0"W
23 Change in ratio of recharge to runoff ( ) - ( ) Change in ratio of recharge to runoff ( ) ( ) Upper Pit < > 2 Rch/run increases Rch/run decreases 120 0'0"W Tuolumne American Merced 120 0'0"W
24 Snow data to assess cold-air pooling following Lundquist et al. 2008
25 No Cold Air Pooling With Cold Air Pooling -1.6 C 2001GA2jun <mm> ,000
26
27 Projected changes in wolverine habitat for consideration of reintroduction to Sierra Nevada Used 8 scenarios of climate change, size of home ranges, and relationship between snowpack and fecundity Currently enough habitat to support 170 adult female home ranges declining to 70 by 2100 Depending on scenario Projections of increased habitat to 60% loss by mid-century 11% to 90% loss by end of century
28 Climatic Water Deficit Annual evaporative demand that exceeds available water Potential Actual Evapotranspiration Integrates climate, energy loading, drainage, and available soil moisture storage Vegetation independent (indicator) Address irrigation demand Generally increases with all future climate scenarios SUPPLY PET DEFICIT 2001 mm/yr <
29 Climatic Water Deficit
30
31 Summary GCM output provides projections of climate change for the next century Needs downscaling for effective application and translated to hydrologic response to provide impacts of the interrelated processes at landscape level Climate change impacts hydrology with local variations Impacts in the Sierra Nevada and implications for management Rising air temperatures and earlier and more variable springtime snowmelt More frequent summer droughts Uncertainties in runoff due to soil moisture Landscape stresses due to increasing CWD Species distributions, forest health, wildfire Fine scale representation offers potential refugia and connectivity
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