The 2018 FIU Cuba Poll: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba

Transcription

1 The 2018 FIU Cuba Poll: How Cuban-Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba

2 The 2018 Cuba Poll Telephone surveys (cell phone and landline) of 1,001 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County. Interviews completed Nov. 14-Dec Margin of error is plus or minus 3.1%. 13 th in the series of Cuba Polls conducted since Results weighted to be representative of the Cuban-American community of Miami- Dade County as a whole. Sponsors: Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs Office of the President Cuban Research Institute Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center

3 General Takeaways from the 2018 FIU Cuba Poll The community is divided on how to deal with Cuba Some want to return to a more isolationist stance by supporting the embargo particularly migrants coming before 1980 A majority would like to continue some of the engagement policies initiated by President Obama The Cuban-American community overwhelmingly supported Republican candidates in the midterm elections

4 Characteristics of the divisions The divisions on attitudes about how to deal with Cuba are established by: Time of departure from Cuba Immigrant generations (second and third generation Cuban- Americans) Political ideology/party Political divisions are also guided by: Age Time of departure from Cuba

5 Brief Review of Findings Economic Policies Embargo Investment in Cuba Other Engagement and Immigration Policies Unrestricted Travel for AllAmericans People-to-People programs Diplomatic Relations Wet foot/dry foot policy Remittances Political behavior during midterm elections Who received support What issues motivated Cuban-American voters

6 Structure of Presentation Each variable is presented to clarify divisions in community 1. Total responses 2. Migration wave and birth outside of Cuba (second and third generations) 3. Age 4. Voter Registration 5. Pre-1980 vs. Other Cuban-Americans 6. Other significant correlations

7 The Embargo

8 How Well Has the Embargo Worked? 5% 12% Worked Very Well 5% Worked Well 12% 57% 26% Not Very Well 26% Worked Not At 57% Worked Very Well Not Very Well Worked Well Not at All All

9 Has Embargo Worked? (by age) 54% 59% 55% 65% and Older Worked Very Well Worked Well Not Very Well Not at All

10 Favor or Oppose Continuation of Embargo? Continue 51% 45% 49% 51% Embargo End Embargo 49% 44% Don t Know 11% Favor Continuation Oppose Continuation

11 Favor or Oppose Continuation of Embargo? (by migration/birth) 68% 58% 60% 60% Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Favor Continuation Oppose Continuation

12 Favor or Oppose Continuation of Embargo? (by age) 65% 51% 60% 40% 73% 27% and Older Favor Continuation Oppose Continuation

13 Support for the Embargo (by voter registration) 52% 53% 48% 47% Registered Favor Continuation Oppose Continuation Not Registered

14 Favor or Oppose Continuation of Embargo? (by vs Others) 44% 56% 68% 32% Other C-A Favor Continuation Oppose Continuation migrants

15 Support for Embargo (by have traveled to Cuba) 56% 56% 44% 44% Favor Continuation Yes Have Traveled No Have not Traveled Oppose Continuation

16 Support for Embargo (by Republican/Other) 69% 64% 36% 31% Favor Continuation Dem/Ind Republican Oppose Continuation

17 Opinions on the maintenance of the embargo over time ( ) 78% 63% 65% 58% 45% 56% 48% 63% 37% 51% stop embargo continue embargo

18 So What Happened Between 2016 and 2018 on this variable?

19 Support for Embargo (2016 and 2018 Polls by and Other Cuban American cohorts) 57.2% 68.4% 45.2% 44.5% Other C-A Cuba Poll Favor Continuation 2018 Cuba Poll Favor Continuation

20 Other Economic Relationships

21 Should U.S. companies doing business with Cuba expand, maintain or stop their activities? 32% 46% Expanded 46% Kept the 22% Same Stopped 32% 22% Expanded Kept the Same Stopped

22 Should U.S. companies doing business with Cuba expand, maintain or stop their activities? (by migration/birth) 55% 55% 60% 40% 36% 25% 23% 17% Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Expanded Kept the Same Stopped

23 Should U.S. companies doing business with Cuba expand, maintain or stop their activities? (by Age) 65% 65% 47% 38% 16% and Older Expanded Kept the Same Stopped

24 Should U.S. companies doing business with Cuba expand, maintain or stop their activities? (By Registered to Vote) 45% 51% 30% 35% 21% 19% Expanded Kept the Same Stopped Registered Not Registered

25 Should U.S. companies doing business with Cuba expand, maintain or stop their activities? (by vs Others) 54% 54% 24% 22% 21% 24% Expanded Kept the Same Stopped Other C-A Migrants

26 Should people living in U.S.be allowed to invest in Cuban businesses? 50% Allow Investments 50% 50% Do Not Allow 50% Yes No

27 Should people living in U.S. be allowed to invest in Cuban businesses? (by migration/birth) 71% 69% 63% 59% 29% 37% 41% 31% Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Yes No

28 Other Policies

29 Support for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations 37% Favor 63% Oppose 37% 63% Yes No

30 Support for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (by migration/birth) 75% 77% 59% 55% 41% Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Yes No

31 Support for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (by age) 83% 31 66% 55% 69% 31% and Older Yes No

32 Support for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (by voter registration) 61% 77% 39% 23% Support Registered Not Registered Oppose

33 Support for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (by vs Others) 71% 59% 41% 29% Yes No Other C-A migrants

34 Support for the Termination of the Wet Foot/Dry Foot policy 8% Support 52% 41% 52% Termination Oppose 41% Unsure 8% Agree Disagree Unsure

35 64% Support for the Termination of the Wet Foot/Dry Foot policy (by migration/birth) 49% 51% 55% 7% 9% 9% 6% Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Agree Disagree Unsure

36 Support for the Termination of the Wet Foot/Dry Foot policy (by voter registration) 55% 57% 34% 37% 8% 8% Agree Disagree Unsure Registered Not Registered

37 Support for the Termination of the Wet Foot/Dry Foot policy (by vs Others) 63% 47% 45% 30% 9% 7% Agree Disagree Unsure Other C-A migrants

38 Support for Unrestricted Travel for All Americans 43% Allow Travel 57% 57% Do Not Allow 43% Allow Do not Allow

39 Support for Unrestricted Travel for All Americans (by migration/birth) 63% 68% 69% 49% 51% 37% 32% 31% Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Allow Do not Allow

40 Support for Unrestricted Travel by All Americans (by age) 72% 72% 61% 50% 50% 39% 28% 28% and Older Allow Do not Allow

41 Support for People-to-People Programs 26% Strongly Favor 44.0% 44% Mostly Favor 20% 10% Mostly Oppose 10% Strongly Oppose 26% 20% Strongly Favor Mostly Oppose Mostly Favor Strongly Oppose

42 Support for People-to-People Programs (by voter registration) 59% 41% 21% 18% 10% 28% 11% 13% Strongly Favor Mostly Favor Mostly Oppose Strongly Oppose Registered Not Registered

43 Support for People-to-People Programs (by vs Others) 52% 47% 24% 22% 13% 8% 16% 18% Strongly Favor Mostly Favor Mostly Oppose Strongly Oppose Other C-A migrant

44 Have you traveled to Cuba? Have Traveled 43% 57% 43% Have Not 43% Traveled Yes Have Traveled No Have not Traveled

45 Have you traveled to Cuba? (By Year Left) 68% 51% 75% 77% 25% Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Yes Have Traveled No Have not Traveled

46 Send remittances to family or friends 40% Send Money 40% 60% Send Other Items 36% Yes No

47 74% Send remittances to family or friends (by migration/birth) 72% 74% 44% 56% 26% 28% 26% Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Yes No

48 Politics

49 Citizens 12% Citizens 88% Registered voters (of Citizens) 95% Midterm Voters (of Registered Voters) 87% 88% Yes No

50 Citizens (by migration/birth) 98% 89% 96% 65% 35% 2% 11% 4% Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Yes No

51 Registered Voters (of citizens by party registration) 26% 1% Republican 54% 54% Democrat 19% Independent 26% 19% Republican Democrat No Party Affiliation Other

52 Party Affiliation of Registered Voters (by migration/birth) 72% 64% 36% 41% 11% 10% 25% 38% 28% 29% 25% 17% 0% 1% 1% 2% Republican Democrat No Party Affiliation Other Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba

53 Party Registration (by age) 76% 53% 61% 35% 40% 23% 24% 21% 20% 19% 17% 7% and Older Republican Democrat No Party Affiliation Other

54 Party Registration (by vs Others) 72% 46% 22% 11% 30% 17% Republican Democrat No Party Affiliation Other C-A migrant

55 Political Party Registration Over Time 69% 67% 68% 66% 53% 56% 46% 54% 55% 16% 18% 18% 18% 14% 15% 14% 15% 27% 20% 21% 23% 30% 24% 22% 25% 19% 26% Rep Dem Ind

56 Midterm Statewide Vote: Governor 1% Vote for Governor (by migration/birth) 84% 83% 29% 64% 51% 48% 35% 15% 17% 70% Ron DeSantis Andrew Gillum Other Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Ron DeSantis Andrew Gillum Other

57 Midterm Vote: Senator 1% Vote for Senator (by migration/birth) 30% 82% 76% 69% 50% 50% 18% 22% 31% 69% Before to to 2018 Not born in Cuba Rick Scott Bill Nelson Other Rick Scott Bill Nelson Other

58 Midterm Election: Congressional Districts

59 Congressional Vote by Party and by Gender 28% Congressional Vote (by party) 77% Congressional Vote (by gender) 67% 23% 33% 72% Republican Male Female Democrat Republican Democrat

60 What Issue Motivates Vote for a Candidate? (entire sample) 46.7% 29.2% 23.7% 8.0% 16.7% 20.4% 9.7% 12.5% 13.7% 9.1%

61 Motivating Issues (by party) 44.3% 54.5% 43.5% 40.9% 11.4% 22.0% 23.5% 13.0% 14.9% 15.6% Republican Democrat Independent

62 Conclusions: Hay Cubanos y Hay Cubanos The community is divided along specific demographic and ideological dimensions about how to deal with Cuba. A strong majority of most recent arrivals (from 1995 to the present) as well as second and third generation Cuban-Americans support policies of engagement towards Cuba. The pre-1980 migrants have retrenched to a more isolationist attitude towards U.S./Cuba relations. The Cuban-American vote remains dominantly Republican in its behavior even as Independent and Democratic registrants account for almost 50% of the community.

63 2018 FIU Cuba Poll View online at sipa.fiu.edu Thank you!