The Demographic Factor

Transcription

1 AGEING A CHALLENGE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE COUNTRIES OF EASTERN EUROPE, CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA Chisinau, March 2007 The Demographic Factor Dimiter Philipov Vienna Institute of Demography 1

2 CONTENTS 1. Definition and measurement of ageing: Indicators, trends, pyramids 2. Demographic causes of ageing: Changes in fertility; recent trends Changes in mortality; recent trends 3. Demographic aspects of ageing (a brief): Marital status of the aged Gender differences in the aged population 4. Summary: the future of population ageing 2

3 1. Defining aging: Who is old? A person can be biologically old; or a person in pension; or a person who is a grandparent, etc. A demographic definition of old people : the proportion of the population aged 65 or more years (or 60 or more) - This is a basic indicator of population ageing Oldest-old: more than 80 years old 3

4 Other indicators: Median age of the population Old-age support ratio Usually defined as the ratio of the population aged 65+ to the population aged 15 to 64 completed years of age (per 100 persons) Other definitions: 65+/20-64; 60+/15-64; 4

5 BELARUS UN projection medium variant

6 Turkey Serbia + Montenegro Romania FYR Macedonia Croatia Bulgaria Bosnia and Herzegovina Albania Dependency ratio Percent 65+

7 Ukraine Russia Moldova Georgia Belarus Azerbaijan Armenia Dependency ratio Percent 65+

8 Percent 65+ Dependency ratio Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan

9 Italy Western Europe Europe Eastern Asia Asia World Dependency ratio 65+

10 UKRAINE 1960 UKRAINE AGE 50 AGE , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Males Females Males Females 10

11 Note: per thousand distribution of the total population 11

12 12

13 13

14 14

15 Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Males Females Males Females 15

16 Bulgaria:

17 Causes of demographic ageing: Two main causes: Drop in fertility. It has a relative effect Drop in mortality. It has a direct effect (Migration may have an effect) 17

18 Stages in the process of ageing: The demographic transition caused population ageing in all countries: First, a steady drop in fertility - the pyramid shrinks from below Second, a drop in mortality rises life expectancy - may effect the whole age structure; Exceptions: both changes start about together (some CEE countries). 18

19 Which cause has stronger effect? During the first stage: fertility During the second stage: mortality (after child and adult mortality have declined, old-age mortality decline continues) At present times the cause is country-specific - The first stage prevails in the CARK countries - The second stage prevails in the other countries (of our interest) 19

20 Fertility: recent trends TFR Mean age Postponement effects 20

21 total fertility rate Balkan countries (lower fertility) Bosnia- Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia Romania Serbia and Montenegro 5.0 Balkan countries (higher fertility) total fertility rate Albania Turkey

22 CIS countries (Europe) total fertility rate Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Moldova Russian F. Ukraine Central Asia Kazahstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan TFR

23 Mean age at first birth Mean Age at First Birth EU members Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovak Rep. 22 Slovenia Mean Age at First Birth Balkan countries Bosnia- Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia Romania Serbia and Montenegro 23

24 Mean Age at First Birth CIS European states Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Moldova Russian F. Ukraine Central A s ia Kazahstan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan MAFB

25 TFR(1) First-order TFR New EU members Czech Rep. Hungary Slovenia Poland Slovak Rep Russia and Baltic countries Estonia TFR(1) Latvia Lithuania Russian F

26 TFR(1) Balkan countries Bulgaria Romania Macedonia Croatia Central Asia Kazahstan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan TFR(1)

27 The effect of postponement of births on the TFR 24-yr. olds born in: Year Age: TFR CF

28 Tempo and Quantum of Fertility Observed TFR is distorted, because of the tempo effect; Demographers discuss the estimation of a TFR clear of tempo effect. It is called adjusted TFR; The adjusted TFR is a measure of quantum; Adjustment is done for each birth order. 28

29 Adjusted TFR(1) It is app % higher than the observed one. Observed Adjusted Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Kazahstan,

30 Fertility Trends - Summary Before the start of the transition: - Universality of childbearing; - First child at an early age; - Stopping childbearing at an early age; - App. 2 children per woman 30

31 After the start of the transition - No universality of childbearing, voluntary childlessness increased - Drop in fertility: Single-child families prevail - Postponement of childbearing - Increase in extra-marital births - Diversity in choices increased 31

32 Fertility forecasts Very high uncertainty Assumption that TFR goes back to replacement level is not as favorite as in the past UN projections: - Medium variant: ultimate value of TFR= Low variant: TFR(2005) High variant: TFR(2005)

33 Mortality Expectation of life at birth Infant mortality Adult mortality Causes of mortality 33

34 Expectation of life at birth: Balkan countries (1) Bulgaria Romania Turkey Left females, right - males 34

35 Balkan countries (2) TFYR Macedonia Albania Bosnia and H. Serbia and M. Croatia Left females, right - males 35

36 CIS - Europe 80 Armenia Belarus Russian Federation Republic of Moldova Azerbaijan Georgia Ukraine Left females, right - males 36

37 CARK countries 75 Kazakhstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Left females, right - males 37

38 Infant mortality Definition: number of deaths of babies less than 1 year old to 1000 live births WHO and ex-soviet definitions of a birth differ and their impact on infant mortality 38

39 Infant mortality Balkan Countries Albania Bulgaria Croatia FYR Mac. Romania Turkey

40 40 30 CIS - Europe A rmenia Belarus Moldova Ukraine A zerbaijan Georgia Russia CARK Kazakhstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan

41 Causes of Death Definitions: ICD-10 Main cause: Increase in cardio-vascular diseases and injuries in CIS+CARK; Alcohol consumption and Smoking; Reasons: unhealthy diet and lifestyle, result of impoverishment and stress; Impact stronger among people with lower education, lower income, unemployed 41

42 Mortality forecasts Lower uncertainty than those for fertility Gradual increase in life expectancy at birth due to: - fall in infant mortality - fall in adult mortality - fall in old-age mortality: main component 42

43 Demographic aspects of ageing Gender differences in the aged population Old women outnumber old men (cf. sexspecific life expectancy) Marital status of the aged Many old women are widows; frequently living alone Regional aspects of ageing: T-shaped pyramids can be observed! 43

44 SUMMARY (Back to population ageing) Population ageing is a slow, long-term process. Once begun, it lasts for decades. The pace of the process is determined by: - The age structure of the population - Changes in fertility - Changes in mortality 44

45 Summary: support ratio Old-age support ratio does not change considerably during the first state of population ageing (can even temporarily decline) It can be estimated with high accuracy for at least 15 years ahead 45

46 Summary: population ageing Is it a negative process? NO! Problems caused by population ageing need to be addressed with adequate policies Longer life raises the issue of healthy life Oldest-old: an emerging population subgroup 46