Economic Forecast to Professional Republican Women Association. January 5, 2017

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1 Economic Forecast to Professional Republican Women Association January 5, 2017

2 Economic Headwinds National and international uncertainty Continued low energy prices Depressed business investment Unstable inflation outlook Consumer spending and consumer confidence remain low

3 Uncertainty at the National and International Level

4 National Economic Conditions

5 A period of increasing interest rates?... It s up to the Fed

6 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election 20,300 19,800 19,300 18,800 18,300 Election Day Dow Jones Industrial Average 19, ,800 10/18/ /25/ /1/ /8/ /15/ /22/ /29/ /6/ /13/ /20/2016 Source: Wall Street Journal

7 178,000 Jobs Added in November Million Jobs Lost Payroll Change 000 s Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 November Report In Line with Expectations Indicator Expectation Actual Total Nonfarm Payrolls 170, ,000 Unemployment Rate 4.9% 4.6% Private Payrolls 155, ,000 Monthly Average Hourly Wage Growth Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth 0.2% -0.1% 2.6% 2.5% Labor Force Participation 62.8% 62.7% Sources: Wall street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics

9 178,000 Jobs Added in November Payroll Change 000 s Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

10 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Nov 2015 to Nov 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -11.5% Total: 1.6% -0.4% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5% 1.9% 2.9% 2.6% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

11 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Nov 2015 to Nov 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

12 11.0 Unemployment Rate Lowest Level in Over 9 Years % Lowest Level Since Aug Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

13 Unemployed and Discouraged Workers Showing Little Change U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 Long-Term Unemployment Remains High Million Persons 8.0 Unemployed for more than 27 weeks March 2016: 2.2 m Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and American Bankers Association

15 % 68.0 Labor Force Participation Seeing Little Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted

16 % Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Over 35 Years Apr % Mar % Nov % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted

17 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 40% 30% Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

19 Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

20 Index Slower Recovery than Past Recessions Periods from Value Scaled to Recession 2001 Recession 1990 Recession 1981 Recession 1980 Recession 1973 Recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

21 4.0% Yearly Wage Growth Up Slightly in September 3.5% 3.0% Nov % 2.5% Average = 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained dollars

22 Consumer Confidence Increasing Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sept 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Source: The Conference Board

23 Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change Percent Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

24 5.0 Producer Price Index on the Rise Percent Year-to-Year Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

25 Consumption Drives Growth 5% Total GDP Growth 3% Growth Rate 1% -1% -3% -5% Fixed Investment Inventories Net Exports Government Personal Consumption 3Q GDP 3.5% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

26 65 ISM Manufacturing Index Increasing Below 50 signals contraction Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Institute for Supply Management

27 4.5% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Inflation Remains Under Target Aug 2011 Nov 2011 Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 May 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Feb 2014 May 2014 Aug 2014 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

28 3.5 Core CPI vs. Core PCE Yearly Change Rate Percent U.S. Core CPI U.S. Core PCE Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; Note: Core CPI and Core PCE represent all items less food and energy

29 The U.S. Dollar is Strong 1973 = 100 Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies Source: Federal Reserve

30 Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.39 $1.30 USD $1.20 $1.10 PARITY $1.00 $0.90 $ $1.06 Source: Investing.com

31 U.S. Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $ China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO 2005 China allows the yuan to rise 2010 China allows the yuan to rise Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amount in 20 years Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

32 $1.80 British Pound Dropped to New Low Following Brexit Vote $1.70 $1.60 USD $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $ Source: Investing.com

33 The Fed is Under Pressure Central Banks with Negative Interest Rates Japan European Central Bank Sweden Denmark Switzerland -0.10% -0.40% -0.50% -0.65% -0.75% Source: global-rates.com

34 U.S. Total Rig Count Recovering from Low as Oil Prices Rise $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $ Oil Prices Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs 2015 Active Oil Rigs ,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,

35 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 2 nd Increase in Over a Decade Federal Funds Target Rate = Source: U.S. Federal ReserveNote: PCE is total personal consumption expenditures

36 Federal Funds Rate Forecast (December 2016) Long Run 2019 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

37 December 2016 Federal Funds Forecast Shows Expectation of More Increases than Previously Projected 4% 3% 2.9% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 2% 1% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 1.1% 2.1% 1.9% 0% Long Run Sep-16 Dec-16 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

38 Federal Funds Rate Longer Run Projections Going Down Over Time Average Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

39 Utah Economic Conditions

40 CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% HI 0.2% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.7% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Population Loss WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

41 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,051, , , Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population f 2018f Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate, f = forecast

42 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2014 to 2015 Box Elder 1.2% Tooele 2.2% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.1% Rich 0.8% Weber 1.3% Morgan 4.2% Summit Salt Lake 1.3% 1.3% Utah 2.4% Wasatch 5.0% Duchesne 2.7% Daggett -1.0% Uintah 2.6% State Average = 1.7% Juab 1.3% Carbon -0.7% Increase of 2.5% or Greater Increase of 1.7% to 2.4% Millard 0.7% Sanpete 1.5% Sevier 0.7% Emery -2.5% Grand 0.7% Increase of 1.0% to 1.6% Beaver -1.5% Piute 2.1% Wayne -0.8% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% Population Loss Iron 2.3% Washington 2.5% Kane -1.4% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 3.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

43 Utah s Population Continues to Grow 7,000, ,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Source: U.S. Census Bureau and University of Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

44 CA 2.3% Percent Change in Employment for States: November 2015 to November 2016 U.S. Rate = 1.6% OR 2.9% WA 3.1% NV 2.7% AK -0.9% ID 2.4% UT 3.0% AZ 1.1% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Utah Employment Growth 3 rd Highest in the Nation MT 1.2% WY -3.1% HI 2.5% CO 2.2% NM -0.3% ND -1.5% SD 2.4% NE 1.0% KS -0.3% TX 1.8% OK -0.9% MN 1.1% IA 0.6% MO 2.1% AR 0.7% WI 1.0% LA -0.3% IL 0.7% MS -0.2% MI 2.0% IN 1.3% TN 1.9% AL 1.0% OH 0.9% KY 0.8% GA 2.3% WV 1.4% VT 0.1% PA 0.7% NC 1.9% SC 2.2% VA 1.0% FL 3.2% NH 2.2% NY 1.1% 2.3% or more 1.6% to 2.2% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 1.6% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss ME 0.4% DC 1.8% CT 0.1% DE 1.2% MD 1.1% MA 2.0% RI 1.1% NJ 0.5%

45 Utah Total Employment at New Highs Thousands of Employees Loss of 92,000 jobs from Gain of 263,000 jobs from low in Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

46 Utah Employment Growth % 25% 20% 15% 10% Average Rate 3.5% 5% 0% -5% -10% e 2017f 2018f Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services e = estimate f = forecast

47 Utah Job Growth Greater than National Average U.S. Year Utah Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

48 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Annual Rate of Change in Utah Nonfarm Employment Average 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% e 2017f 2018f Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services e = Estimate, f = Forecast

49 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: November 2015 to November 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -10.8% Total: 3.0% 4.5% 3.7% 2.5% 0.9% 3.8% 4.9% 1.0% 2.1% 0.5% 9.3% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

50 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: November 2015 to November 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -1, , ,200 4,000 4,600 6,700 7,600 7,500 9,200 Total: 42,100-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

51 Utah Employment Change Rates By County Nov 2015 to Nov 2016 State Rate = 3.0% Box Elder 4.0% Tooele 4.7% Juab 2.0% Cache 1.9% Rich 15.7% Weber 2.5% Davis 1.2% Morga n0.9% Salt Lake 3.2% Utah 4.9% Summit 4.7% Wasatch 5.5% Duchesne -4.2% Carbon -2.1% Daggett 6.4% Uintah -11.1% 5.0% or more 3.0% to 4.9% Millard 0.8% Sanpete 1.7% Sevier 0.4% Emery -2.6% Grand 2.7% 1.0% to 2.9% Beaver -5.2% Piute -4.6% Wayne -2.1% 0.0% to 0.9% Iron 6.1% Garfield -0.9% San Juan -1.3% Loss Washington 6.2% Kane 1.0% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted

52 OR 5.0% CA 5.3% WA 5.3% NV 5.2% AK 6.8% ID 3.8% UT 3.1% AZ 5.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics UT Unemployment Rates 5 th Lowest in the Nation MT 4.0% HI 3.0% WY 4.9% CO 3.2% NM 6.7% November 2016 U.S. Rate = 4.6% ND 2.9% SD 2.7% NE 3.4% KS 4.3% TX 4.6% OK 5.1% MN 3.8% IA 3.8% MO 4.7% AR 4.0% LA 6.2% WI 4.1% IL 5.6% MS 5.7% MI 4.9% IN 4.2% TN 4.8% AL 5.9% 3.9% or less OH 4.9% KY 4.8% GA 5.3% WV 6.0% VT 3.2% PA 5.7% NC 5.0% SC 4.4% VA 4.2% FL 4.9% NH 2.7% NY 5.1% 4.0% to 4.6% (at or below U.S. rate) 4.7% to 5.5% 5.6% to 5.9% 6.0% or more ME 4.0% DC 6.0% CT 4.7% DE 4.3% MD 4.2% MA 2.9% RI 5.3% NJ 5.0%

53 UT Unemployment Rates Consistently Lower than the Nation Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2017 and 2018 forecast from Utah Department of Workforce Services U.S. Utah

54 Utah Unemployment Rates By County November 2016 State Rate = 3.1% Box Elder 3.2% Tooele 3.4% Juab 3.1% Cache 2.7% Weber 3.4% Morgan Davis 2.8% 2.8% Salt Lake 2.9% Utah 2.8% Rich 3.3% Summit 2.9% Wasatch 3.0% Duchesne 7.5% Carbon 5.3% Daggett 4.2% Uintah 8.6% 3.1% or lower 3.2% to 3.5% Millard 3.2% Sanpete 3.7% Sevier 4.0% Emery 5.1% Grand 5.0% 3.6% to 5.9% Beaver 5.2% Piute 5.8% Wayne 6.5% 6.0% to 6.9% Iron 4.2% Garfield 6.8% San Juan 6.8% 7.0% or greater Washington 3.2% Kane 3.2% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

55 CA 4.2% WA 4.6% OR 4.6% NV 4.5% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis UT Personal Income Growth Highest in the Nation AK -0.8% Percent Change in Personal Income : Q Q U.S. = 3.5%; UT = 5.0% ID 3.2% UT 5.0% AZ 3.8% MT 1.5% WY -2.3% HI 4.3% CO 3.5% NM 1.9% ND -0.5% SD 0.9% NE 1.8% KS 2.6% TX 3.0% OK 0.0% MN 3.2% IA 1.9% MO 3.7% AR 3.3% WI 3.0% LA 1.6% IL 3.5% MS 2.9% MI 3.9% IN 4.2% TN 3.2% AL 3.4% 4.0% or more OH 3.3% KY 2.5% GA 4.2% WV 0.4% VT 2.5% PA 2.9% NC 4.0% SC 4.3% VA 3.5% FL 4.8% NH 3.9% NY 2.8% 3.5% to 3.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 2.0% to 3.4% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease ME 3.9% DC 4.5% CT 3.4% DE 2.6% MD 4.0% MA 4.1% RI 2.6% NJ 3.4%

56 15% 10% Utah vs U.S. Personal Income Growth Yearly Percent Change in Total Personal Income 5% 0% -5% -10% Q1 U.S. UT Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

57 Utah vs U.S. Personal Income Growth Yearly Percent Change in Total Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% e 2017f 2018f Utah U.S. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate f = forecast

58 Slow Growth in Utah Average Annual Pay 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Average Growth 3.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% e 2018f Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services e = estimate f = forecast

59 OR $60,834 CA $63,636 WA $67,243 NV $52,008 ID $51,624 AK $75,112 UT $66,258 AZ $52,248 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Utah Median Household Income Among Highest in the Nation MT $51, U.S. = $56,516; 2015 Utah = $66,258 WY $60,925 HI $64,514 CO $66,596 NM $45,119 ND $57,415 SD $55,065 NE $60,474 KS $54,865 TX $56,473 OK $47,077 MN $68,730 IA $60,855 MO $59,196 WI $55,425 AR $42,798 PA 60,389 OH IL IN $53,301 $60,413 WV $51,983 VA $42,824 KY $61,486 $42,387 NC TN $50,797 $47,330 SC $46,360 MS AL GA $40,037$44,509 $50,768 LA $45,922 MI $54,203 $65,000 or more VT $59,494 NY $58,005 FL $48,825 NH $75,675 $56,516 to $64,999 (At or above U.S.) $50,000 to $56,515 $45,000 to $49,999 $44,999 or less ME $50,756 CT $72,889 DE $57,756 MD DC $73,594 $70,071 MA $67,861 RI $55,701 NJ $68,357

60 $70,000 Utah Median Household Income Higher than National Average $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45, Utah United States Source: U.S. Census Bureau

61 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Jul 2011 Consumer Price Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 United States CPI Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 July 2016 Oct 2016 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

62 Consumer Attitude Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index 60.0 United States Consumer 50.0 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group

63 Utah Has the Most Diverse Economy in the Nation Ten Most Diversified Economies in the Country: Hachman Index 2015 Utah Georgia North Carolina Illinois Missouri California Arizona Tennessee Pennsylvania Ohio Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute Analysis of BEA data Note: A Hachman Index value of 100 means that the distribution of employment among industries is exactly the same as the nation. The closer the value to 100, the more diverse the state s economy.

64 Three-Year Average Annual Population Growth Rate % 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% United States Mountain States Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming Source: ERG reporting of U.S. Census Bureau data

65 Three-Year Average Annual GDP Growth Rate % 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% United States Mountain States Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming Source: ERG reporting of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data

66 Three-Year Average Annual Employment Growth Rate % 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 2.3% 1.9% 1.6% 1.7% Average Employment Growth Rate 1.7% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% United States Mountain States Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

67 Utah Poverty Rate 5 th Lowest in the Nation CA 13.9% WA 11.4% OR 11.9% NV 13.0% AK 9.2% ID 12.3% UT 9.3% AZ 17.2% 2015 U.S. Rate = 13.5%, 2015 Utah Rate = 9.3% MT 11.9% WY 9.8% HI 10.9% CO 9.9% NM 19.7% ND 10.7% SD 13.9% NE 10.3% KS 14.2% TX 14.7% OK 14.2% MN 7.8% IA 10.4% MO 9.8% AR 16.1% WI 11.4% LA 18.6% IL 10.9% MS 19.1% MI 12.8% IN 13.5% TN 14.7% AL 16.3% 10.0% or less 10.1% to 11.0% OH 13.6% KY 19.5% WV 14.5% VT 10.7% PA 12.3% VA 10.9% NC 15.3% SC 14.3% GA 18.1% FL 16.2% NH 7.3% NY 14.2% 11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate) 13.6% to 16.0% 16.1% or more ME 12.3% DC 16.6% CT 9.1% DE 11.1% MD 9.6% MA 11.5% RI 11.8% NJ 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

68 Utah Poverty Rates Lower than Nation Percent of Population in Poverty U.S. Utah Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

69 Utah Economic Indicators f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales e 2017f 2018f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast

70 Utah Accolades CNBC: Utah Named 2016 Top State for Business WalletHub: Utah Named 2016 State with Best Economy CNBC: Salt Lake City (18), Ogden (7), and Provo (2) Named Among Top 20 Metro Areas to Start a Business in U.S. Forbes: Utah Named #1 Best State for Business (top stop 5 out of past 6 years) Standard & Poor s, Moody s Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings: Utah One of only 10 States with AAA Bond Rating

71 Readings on the U.S. economy Utah Named As the 2016 Best State for Business since the turn of the year have been High scores in: somewhat mixed. Economy (#3) Business Friendliness (#10) Workforce (#12) Infrastructure (#13) Quality of Life (#13) Technology and Innovation (#16) Cost of Doing Business (#19) Major improvements in: Workforce (up 17 spots) Infrastructure (up 17 spots) Education (up 8 spots) Quality of Life (up 7 spots) - Janet Yellen

72 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone:

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