WYOMING TAXPAYERS ASSOCIATION 2003 Annual Membership Luncheon

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1 WYOMING TAXPAYERS ASSOCIATION 2003 Annual Membership Luncheon Wyoming State Government Revenue Forecast Highlights Presented by: Buck McVeigh Administrator Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Wednesday, October 22, 2003 Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

2 Consensus Revenue Estimating Group (CREG) Official, non-partisan, revenue estimating body for all revenues of Wyoming State Government. Provides to both the Governor and the Legislature a single consensus estimate of revenues. Meets twice a year (October & January). Publications consist of the October and January forecasts (the green CREG and the Governor s Profile reports), the monthly report, and the monthly news release. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

3 The CREG Revenue Forecast The green CREG and the Governor s Profile. Neither provide other fund balances such as Budget Reserve Account, School Foundation. Both reports present only revenue side of the picture. The surplus money not evident in General Fund totals (because of de-earmarking). The goldenrod report is a Legislative Service Office product and provides a point-in-time estimate of the State s fiscal status. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

4 The Budget Surplus GF/BRA Carryover at end of FY03/04: $ 540.7M GF/BRA Revenue estimates FY05/06: Revenue available for appropriation this session: Less FY05-06 Standard Budget request: (This is not the Governor s total budget recommendation) Balance remaining after Standard Budget: Add other monies from Federal Jobs & Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 & excess SFP 1,797.5M $2,338.2M 1,464.0M $ 874.2M 184.6M Estimated budget surplus $ 1,058.8M Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

5 Energy Multipliers Price Changes Coal [ $0.25 per ton price change ] $12.8 million revenue change. Natural Gas [ $0.10 per mcf change ] $16.0 million revenue change. Crude Oil [ $1.00 per bbl. change ] $5.4 million revenue change. Note: revenue sources include severance taxes, federal mineral royalties, and ad valorem taxes. Source: October 2003 CREG Forecast. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

6 Sustainable vs. One-time (De-earmarking) Sets a cap on FMRs and severance taxes Traditional distribution up to cap levels Over cap distribution divided into sustainable/one-time Sustainable Funds 1/3 of FMRs over $200M go to School Foundation 1/3 of Sev. Taxes over $155M go to General Fund One-time Funds 2/3s from both sources go to Budget Reserve Acct. inheritance taxes over $10M go to the Budget Reserve Account rather than General Fund. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

7 The Governor s Profile Report Produced by the Economic Analysis Division. Provides executive summaries of prior fiscal year and current forecast. Provides comparison of current forecast to previous forecast. The following information is derived from the Governor s Profile. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

8 FY 2003 Summary General Fund Revenue Sources Revenue FY03 Forecast Source Actual Total $ % Sales & Use Tax $300,953,910 $308,000,000 ($7,046,090) -2.3% PWMTF & Pooled $77,862,130 $95,000,000 ($17,137,870) -18.0% Severance Tax $149,549,109 $116,200,000 $33,349, % All Other $96,318,862 $86,200,000 $10,118, % Tota l $624,684,011 $605,400,000 $19,284, %

9 FY 2003 Mineral Income Severance Tax Distributions by Entity Re ce iving FY03 Fore ca s t Entity Actua l Tota l $ % General Fund $149,549,109 $116,200,000 $33,349, % PWMTF $104,690,345 $69,400,000 $35,290, % Budget Reserve $105,317,276 $39,300,000 $66,017, % All Other $69,569,492 $68,600,000 $969, % Tota l $429,126,222 $293,500,000 $135,626, % Federal Mineral Royalty Distributions by Entity Re ce iving FY03 Fore ca s t Entity Actua l Tota l $ % Schools $226,142,938 $186,200,000 $39,942, % Highways $66,472,500 $66,500,000 ($27,500) 0.0% Budget Reserve $135,076,695 $54,400,000 $80,676, % All Other $48,577,500 $48,700,000 ($122,500) -0.3% Tota l $476,269,633 $355,800,000 $120,469, %

10 FY04-06 Forecast Summary General Fund Revenues by Source [ October 2003 Projections vs. January 2003 Projections ] October 2003 CREG Projections Fiscal Sales & PWMTF Pooled Severance Chgs. - Sales Franchise All Year Use Tax Income Income Tax & Services Tax Other (2) Total 2004 $320,500,000 $66,400,000 $15,600,000 $157,300,000 $20,700,000 $18,400,000 $61,200,000 $660,100, $324,600,000 $69,700,000 $16,400,000 $146,600,000 $20,700,000 $18,400,000 $65,500,000 $661,900, $332,400,000 $73,200,000 $17,200,000 $146,500,000 $20,700,000 $18,400,000 $63,000,000 $671,400, $343,500,000 $76,900,000 $18,100,000 $149,700,000 $20,700,000 $18,400,000 $60,500,000 $687,800, $352,700,000 $80,700,000 $19,000,000 $152,800,000 $20,700,000 $18,400,000 $60,500,000 $704,800,000 October 2003 CREG vs. January 2003 CREG [ Dollar changes. ] $ per Sales & PWMTF Pooled Severance Chgs. - Sales Franchise All Fiscal Year Use Tax Income Income Tax & Services Tax Other Total 2004 ($500,000) ($33,600,000) ($4,400,000) $39,100,000 ($200,000) $1,300,000 $17,200,000 $18,900, ($9,600,000) ($50,300,000) ($7,600,000) $25,400,000 ($200,000) $1,300,000 $23,400,000 ($17,600,000) 2006 ($15,800,000) ($44,800,000) ($6,800,000) $23,100,000 ($200,000) $1,300,000 $22,800,000 ($20,400,000) ($25,900,000) ($128,700,000) ($18,800,000) $87,600,000 ($600,000) $3,900,000 $63,400,000 ($19,100,000)

11 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 ($ per MCF) Natural Gas Prices - Monthly Averages Differential Opal Hub Henry Hub $0 S O N D J 02 F M A M J J A S O N D J 03 F M A M J J A Prepared by the Economic Analysis Division

12 Major Mineral Commodities - Price & Production Levels [ October 2003 Projections vs. January 2003 Projections ] Natural Gas - All Production Calendar Price Product ion (mcf) Year Oct Jan Oct Jan $4.20 $2.00 1,800,000,000 1,800,000, $3.50 $2.25 1,800,000,000 1,880,000, $3.25 $2.25 1,850,000,000 1,960,000, $3.25 $2.25 1,905,000,000 2,040,000, $3.25 $2.25 1,962,700,000 2,120,000, $3.25 $2.25 2,021,500,000 2,200,000,000 Oct Gas Prices & Production 2,500 2,000 1, , $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Total P rod CBM Prod Meth Price CBM Price

13 Major Mineral Commodities - Price & Production Levels [ October 2003 Projections vs. January 2003 Projections ] Coal - Surface Calendar Price Product ion (t ons) Year Oct Jan Oct Jan $6.80 $ ,800, ,000, $6.00 $ ,600, ,800, $6.03 $ ,400, ,600, $6.13 $ ,700, ,400, $6.27 $ ,100, ,300, $6.48 $ ,100, ,200,000 Oct Coal Prices & Production 410 $9 400 $8 390 $7 380 $ $5 Coal Prod Coal Price

14 Major Mineral Commodities - Price & Production Levels [ October 2003 Projections vs. January 2003 Projections ] Crude Oil Calendar Price Product ion (t ons) Year Oct Jan Oct Jan $25.75 $ ,500,000 51,200, $22.50 $ ,400,000 48,400, $20.50 $ ,400,000 45,700, $20.50 $ ,400,000 43,200, $20.50 $ ,500,000 40,800, $20.50 $ ,700,000 38,600,000 Oct Oil Prices & Production $28 $26 $24 $22 $20 $18 Oil P ro d Oil P ric e

15 Severance Tax Distributions by Receiving Entity [ October 2003 Projections vs. January 2003 Projections ] October 2003 CREG Projections Fiscal General Budget Water Highway Cities, Towns, All Year Fund PWMTF Reserve 1 & 2 Fund & Counties Other Total 2004 $157,300,000 $110,400,000 $121,600,000 $22,600,000 $6,700,000 $20,300,000 $19,600,000 $458,500, $146,600,000 $99,400,000 $100,300,000 $22,600,000 $6,700,000 $20,300,000 $19,900,000 $415,800, $146,500,000 $99,000,000 $100,000,000 $22,600,000 $6,700,000 $20,300,000 $20,200,000 $415,300, $149,700,000 $102,200,000 $106,300,000 $22,600,000 $6,700,000 $20,300,000 $20,600,000 $428,400, $152,800,000 $105,900,000 $112,600,000 $22,600,000 $6,700,000 $20,300,000 $20,900,000 $441,800,000 October 2003 CREG vs. January 2003 CREG [ Dollar changes. ] $ per General Budget Water Highway Cities, Towns, All Fiscal Year Fund PWMTF Reserve 1 & 2 Fund & Counties Other Total 2004 $39,100,000 $39,300,000 $78,100,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $156,700, $25,400,000 $25,700,000 $50,900,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $102,200, $23,100,000 $24,000,000 $46,200,000 $0 $0 $0 $200,000 $93,500, $87,600,000 $89,000,000 $175,200,000 $0 $0 $0 $600,000 $352,400,000

16 Federal Mineral Royalty Distributions by Entity [ October 2003 Projections vs. January 2003 Projections ] October 2003 CREG Projections Fiscal University Schools - Highway Fund & Cities & CTC & Spec. Budget All Year of Wyoming Fnd. & CapCon HF for Cnty. Rds. Towns Dist. CapCon Reserve Other Total 2004 $13,400,000 $210,400,000 $66,500,000 $18,600,000 $13,100,000 $156,300,000 $3,600,000 $481,900, $13,400,000 $198,000,000 $66,500,000 $18,600,000 $13,100,000 $132,000,000 $3,600,000 $445,200, $13,400,000 $188,800,000 $66,500,000 $18,600,000 $13,100,000 $131,900,000 $3,600,000 $435,900, $13,400,000 $163,700,000 $64,600,000 $18,600,000 $7,400,000 $139,300,000 $2,000,000 $409,000, $13,400,000 $168,000,000 $64,600,000 $18,600,000 $7,400,000 $148,000,000 $2,000,000 $422,000,000 October 2003 CREG vs. January 2003 CREG [ Dollar changes. ] $ per University Schools - Highway Fund & Cities & CTC & Spec. Budget All Fiscal Year of Wyoming Fnd. & CapCon HF for Cnty. Rds. Towns Dist. CapCon Reserve Other Total 2004 $0 $48,400,000 $0 $0 $0 $96,600,000 $0 $145,000, $0 $32,400,000 $0 $0 $0 $64,800,000 $0 $97,200, $0 $29,600,000 $0 $0 $0 $59,300,000 $0 $88,900, $0 $110,400,000 $0 $0 $0 $220,700,000 $0 $331,100,000

17 Assessed Valuations by Mineral [ October 2003 Projections vs. January 2003 Projections ] October 2003 CREG Projections Calendar Natural Crude Other Total Other Grand Year Gas Coal Oil Trona Minerals Minerals Property Total 2003 $4,883,800,000 $1,832,000,000 $1,253,900,000 $209,300,000 $56,800,000 $8,235,800,000 $4,951,600,000 $13,187,400, $4,069,800,000 $1,632,800,000 $1,051,800,000 $195,800,000 $58,100,000 $7,008,300,000 $5,199,200,000 $12,207,500, $3,884,100,000 $1,657,300,000 $958,300,000 $201,200,000 $59,100,000 $6,760,000,000 $5,459,200,000 $12,219,200, $3,999,700,000 $1,706,000,000 $996,300,000 $201,200,000 $61,500,000 $6,964,700,000 $5,732,200,000 $12,696,900, $4,120,700,000 $1,764,100,000 $1,036,200,000 $201,200,000 $63,500,000 $7,185,700,000 $6,018,800,000 $13,204,500, $4,244,200,000 $1,856,600,000 $1,097,100,000 $201,200,000 $63,800,000 $7,462,900,000 $6,319,700,000 $13,782,600,000 October 2003 CREG vs. January 2003 CREG [ Dollar changes. ] $ per Natural Crude Other Total Other Grand Calendar Year Gas Coal Oil Trona Minerals (2) Minerals Property Total 2003 $2,802,000,000 $261,100,000 $298,500,000 ($2,700,000) ($4,200,000) $3,354,700,000 $66,900,000 $3,421,600, $1,619,800,000 $27,200,000 $239,000,000 ($16,200,000) ($3,800,000) $1,866,000,000 $70,300,000 $1,936,300, $1,335,600,000 $16,600,000 $190,800,000 ($16,700,000) ($3,800,000) $1,522,500,000 $73,900,000 $1,596,400, $1,354,500,000 $27,000,000 $270,800,000 ($16,700,000) ($2,400,000) $1,633,200,000 $77,600,000 $1,710,800, $1,378,800,000 $46,000,000 $351,000,000 ($16,700,000) ($400,000) $1,758,700,000 $81,500,000 $1,840,200, $1,405,600,000 $98,900,000 $448,900,000 ($16,700,000) ($100,000) $1,936,600,000 $85,500,000 $2,022,100,000

18 "The danger is that people will forget that price spikes ever occurred until they occur again." Christopher Seiple, RDI Consulting in Boulder, Colo. Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

19 How to find us Economic Analysis Division EAD Dept. of Administration & Information Wyoming State Government Economic Analysis Division Wyoming State Government Copyright

20 $800 $700 General Fund Revenue: FY FY 2008 (in millions of dollars) Other Investment Income Sales & Use Tax Severance Tax $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Wyoming Economic Analysis Division

21 $500 Mineral Severance Taxes: FY FY 2008 (in millions of dollars) $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Other Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil Wyoming Economic Analysis Division

22 $500 Federal Mineral Royalties: FY FY 2008 (in millions of dollars) $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Other Local Gov't & District LRI/BRA Highway Fund School Foundation Wyoming Economic Analysis Division

23 $500 Mineral Severance Tax Distribution: FY FY 2008 (in millions of dollars) $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Other PWMTF Budget Reserve Acct General Fund Wyoming Economic Analysis Division

24 $15,000 $14,000 $13,000 $12,000 $11,000 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Total Locally and State Assessed Valuation (in millions of dollars) Other* Coal Gas Oil $ * Other includes other minerals, real and personal property Wyoming Economic Analysis Division

Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist. Stateof Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1

Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist. Stateof Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1 WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TREND LCCC LIFE Program April 7, 2012 Cheyenne, Wyoming Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist Economic Analysis Division Stateof Wyoming Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming