Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times
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1 Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Grantham Institute for Climate Change Annual Lecture rd November 2011 Imperial College of Science and Technology, London
2 Living with limits From great divergence to great convergence Affluence and the demand for resources The biggest collective action challenge in history Irresistible forces meets immoveable objects Nightfall for a civilisation? Conclusion 2
3 1. From great divergence to convergence THE ENERGY REVOLUTION Chart 1: GLOBAL ENERGY OUTPUT FROM FOSSIL FUELS (exajoules) Source: Solid Liquid Gas
4 1. From great divergence to convergence ARRIVAL OF AFFLUENCE 250, , , , , Chart 2: ENERGY CAPTURE IN THE MOST ADVANCED WESTERN AND EASTERN ECONOMIES (kilocalories per head) Source: Ian Morris, Social Development,
5 1. From great divergence to convergence THE TRANSFORMATION Chart 3: GDP PER HEAD OF RICHEST WESTERN AND EASTERN COUNTRIES (1990 PPP $s) 30,000 25,000 Source:Angus Maddison, 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Italy Netherlands UK USA China Japan 5
6 1. From great divergence to convergence THE TRANSFORMATION $100,000 Chart 4: GDP PER HEAD OF RICHEST WESTERN AND EASTERN COUNTRIES (1990 PPP $s) Source:Angus Maddison, $10,000 $1,000 $ Italy Netherlands UK USA China Japan 6
7 1. From great divergence to convergence THE DECLINE AND RISE OF THE EAST Chart 5: GDP PER HEAD RELATIVE TO THE US (1990 PPP $s) 120.0% 100.0% Source: Angust Maddison, % 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Western Europe China India Japan 7
8 1. From great divergence to convergence PATTERNS OF CATCH-UP GROWTH 100.0% Chart 6: GDP PER HEAD RELATIVE TO US (2009 EK $s) 10.0% 1.0% Japan (from 1950) South Korea (from 1964) China (from 1978) India (from 1978) 8
9 2. Affluence and the demand for resources EMERGING COUNTRIES OUTPERFORM HUGELY Chart 7: GDP GROWTH RATE IN THE WORLD ECONOMY (10-year moving average, end year) Source: IMF WEO, September World Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies
10 2. Affluence and the demand for resources CHINA LEADS, BUT INDIA CATCHES UP Chart 8: GDP GROWTH IN ASIA (10-year moving average, end year) 12 Source: IMF, WEO Database, September China India Developing Asia
11 2. Affluence and the demand for resources ADVANCED COUNTRIES FALL, ASIA RISES 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: IMF WEO database, October Chart 9: SHARES IN WORLD OUTPUT (at PPP, per cent) European Union United States Other advanced economies China India Other developing Asia Other emerging economies 11
12 2. Affluence and the demand for resources ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVES WITH WEALTH Chart 10: ENERGY INPUT PER UNIT OF GDP (kilograms of oil equivalent and GDP at 2005 $s) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2011 UK US India China
13 2. Affluence and the demand for resources BUT ENERGY USE STILL RISES RAPIDLY 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,672 7,503 Chart 11: ENERGY USE PER HEAD (kilogram of oil equivalent) 3,597 3,395 1,049 1,871 US UK China India Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
14 2. Affluence and the demand for resources AND REAL PRICES OF RESOURCES ROSE Chart 12: MOVING AVERAGE OF REAL COMMODITY PRICES (previous five years) /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2011 Energy Agricultural Industrial Metals 14
15 2. Affluence and the demand for resources BUT STAGNATION HITS OIL PRODUCTION Source: IMF WEO April 2011 Chart 13: WORLD OIL PRODUCTION (millions of barrels a day) World oil production Trend Trend Trend 15
16 3. Biggest collective action challenge EMISSIONS AND THE FOSSIL FUEL REVOLUTION Chart 14: HISTORY OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS (million tonnes of carbon) S Source: Total carbon emissions from fossil-fuels (million metric tons of C) carbon emissions from liquid fuel consumption carbon emissions from cement production carbon emissions from gas fuel consumption carbon emissions from solid fuel consumption carbon emissions from gas flaring 16
17 3. Biggest collective action challenge HIGH PRICES HELP BUT NOT ENOUGH 1.4 Source: Chart 15: CARBON EMISIONS PER HEAD (tonnes of carbon)
18 3. Biggest collective action challenge DESPITE RISING EFFICIENCY Chart 16: CARBON DIXOIDE EMISSIONS PER UNIT OF GDP (kg and 2005 PPP $s) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators China India US UK
19 3. Biggest collective action challenge EMISSIONS PER HEAD RISE IN POOR COUNTRIES Chart 17: CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS PER HEAD (tonnes) 25.0 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators US UK China India
20 3. Biggest collective action challenge TOTAL EMISSIONS EXPLODE IN CHINA 7, , , , , , , , ,533.0 Chart 18: TOTAL EMISSIONS (m tonnes) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators , , , China US India UK
21 3. Biggest collective action challenge 40 Chart 19: CO2 EMISSIONS 400 Chart 20: vs GDP & ENERGY GDP Non- OECD OECD Source:BP ENERGY CO2 21
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