2005 EUROPEAN GAS LEADERS CONFERENCE- MERRILL LYNCH

Transcription

1 G&P Business Trends Luciano Sgubini Chief Operating Officer Gas & Power Division London, June 23 rd 2005 EUROPEAN GAS LEADERS CONFERENCE- MERRILL LYNCH

2 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future results of Eni that are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projections about the industries in which Eni operates and the beliefs and assumptions of the management of Eni. In particular, among other statements, certain statements with regard to management objectives, trends in results of operations, margins, costs, return on equity, risk management and competition are forward-looking in nature. Words such as expects, anticipates, targets, goals, projects, intends, plans, believes, seeks, estimates, variations of such words, and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are only predictions and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. Therefore, Eni s actual results may differ materially and adversely from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, economic conditions globally, the impact of competition, political and economic developments in the countries in which Eni operates, regulatory developments in Italy and internationally and changes in oil prices and in the margins for Eni products. Any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Eni speak only as of the date they are made. Eni does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect any changes in Eni s expectations with regard thereto or any changes in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. The reader should, however, consult any further disclosures Eni may make in documents it files with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. 2

3 G&P Strategic Guidelines Italy Leverage on gas demand growth respecting ceilings Continue organic growth in power generation business Reduce presence in regulated business From a European International Secure and increase market share in valuable markets in Europe Ongoing development of profitable projects leveraging on upstream and downstream gas integration Developing worldwide LNG business to sustain long term growth to a global gas player 2004 & 1Q & 1Q 2005 achievements achievements consistent with consistent with strategy strategy 3

4 G&P: 2004 Growth driven by International Sales Bcm CAGR +7.8% 2004/2003 International * * +7.9% * 25.5* International sales: +19% Italian sales**: +2.5% Italy ** 52.8** 54.1** Compliant with Italian gas market ceiling 1st Jan. inlet ceiling to Italian market: 75% 1st Jan. Italian gas market fully open * Including gas sales in South America ** Including self consumption of 1.9 bcm in 2002/03 and 3.7 bcm in

5 G&P: Italy Acting Proactively in the Gas Market (Bcm) ITALIAN DEMAND Leveraging on gas demand growth +3.2% % Thermoelec. Driven by +2.2% -1.1% Industry Resid. & Comm. power-generation consumption INSTALLED CAPACITY * GAS SELF CONSUMPTION EBIT Growing in Powergen (GW) (Bcm) ( Mil.) * EniPower Commercial operation Reducing presence in regulated asset base Snam Rete Gas Sale of 9.05% stake in

6 G&P: 2004 International Expansion Sales % Associates Consolidated * 2004* * Not including E&P direct sales of equity gas (5 bcm in 2003 and in 2004) Transportation Abroad Diversifing supply sources Lybia: Greenstream project started in October 04 Monetize equity gas Gas sold to gas players (long term take or pay contract) Ownership: Eni 75% NOC 25% On On schedule schedule and and within within budget budget 6

7 G&P: 2004 results confirm strategic guidelines Transp. Abroad Power SRG 1% 3,373 8% 35% 1% Market & Distrib. 56% 58% 3,661 3,514 7% 11% 2% Competitive pressure in Italy 34% 36% offset by: Increasing gas sales and transportation abroad 51% Expansion in powergen in Italy Operating Income net of special items (Million ) 7

8 G&P: Industrial Developments Offset Competitive Pressure in Italy Million Overall competitive pressure estimated 600 million (based on average 2000/01 Ebit) 3, Industrial actions ,514 Competitive pressure Power Mkt abroad Transp. abroad Scenario & Others 2004 G&P Operating income net of special items 8

9 G&P: 1Q 2005 Results Sustained by Growing International Sales Bcm 1Q 2005/1Q % International sales: +13.2% Italian sales: -1.8% International 9.1* 10.3* Self consumption: % Italy 18.7** 18.4** 1Q Q 2005 * Including gas sales in South America ** Including self consumption of 0.8 bcm in 1Q 2004 and 1.3 bcm in 1Q

10 G&P: Adjusted Operating Income- 1Q 2005 and future trends Million 1, % 1, Competitive pressure expected in line with past years average Continuing power-generation capacity build up in Italy Strengthen marketing expansion across Europe and transportation activity abroad 1Q 04 1Q 05 Industrial actions more than offset competitive pressure GOING FORWARD 10

11 International Gas Market & Eni Gas & Power Strategic Targets

12 Gas Demand in Different Areas and LNG role Bcm Europe North America (Usa & Canada) CAGR 0.5% CAGR: 2.9% 1% 8% 11% Far East 8% 14% 14% CAGR 6.1% 15% % % 65% Source: Eni estimates on WoodMackenzie data

13 LNG Demand Growth Bcm 40 Europe North America Asia Production areas Demand areas Main routes LNG World Demand CAGR +8% Source: Eni estimates on Wood MacKenzie data

14 Well positioned for international growth Key features Gas availability Monetizing equity gas through integrated projects Competitive long term diversified supply portfolio Network Implementing new infrastructures for new markets: Pipelines and LNG Projects Markets Developing in attractive and growing markets: Europe and Atlantic Basin 14

15 An International Player in the Growing Gas Market +7.5% (Bcm) OVERALL ENI SALES (E&P AND G&P) CAGR 4.0% ~ % ~70 % International ~50 Italy Increasing upstreamdownstream gas 120 integration E&P direct sales G&P Equity gas Contracted gas

16 Italy: growing Gas Demand Trend Italian Gas Demand Growth (Bcm) CAGR >3% >2% Powergeneration gas consumption CAGR 04/08: 4.7% 15% Trend in Grid electricity demand (TWh)* CAGR 2.3% Development in CCGT Capacity (GW) E 2010E Res & Comm Industry Thermoelectric 1.2 CAGR 46%

17 EniPower Ongoing Expansion in the Italian Market Capacity and production developement Ferrera Erbognone and Ravenna Mantova and Brindisi 1st group Brindisi Ferrara Installed Capacity (GW) Production (TWh) Final market share Final market share from 3% in 2003 from 3% in 2003 to 10% since to 10% since

18 Italy: confirming a proactive startegy in the Gas Market Opening Reducing Presence in Regulated Business TRANSPORTATION ACTIVITY (Snam Rete Gas) Further reduction to 20% by 1st July 2007 Diversifying Supply Sources Increase transportation capacity by 2008: TAG (3.2 bcm/y) and TTPC 3.3 bcm/y) Increase third parties access capacity into Italian market Strengthen relationship with producers countries (Russia and Algeria) 18

19 Europe: gas demand growth in main markets Bcm (*) UK CAGR+2.8% Germany CAGR+1.6% Iberian peninsula France CAGR+9.1% CAGR+2.8% Italy CAGR+3.2% Turkey CAGR+7.0% New entrants in the deregulated markets Competitive scenario New investments in infrastructures mainly LNG plants Increasing role of producing countries willing to monetize their gas reserves (Qatar, Egypt, Nigeria, Iran, etc.) (*) WoodMackenzie data 19

20 A Major Player in European Natural Gas Business Bcm European sales CAGR +9% 48 Target markets & shippers CAGR +30.3% Iberian peninsula Germany France Turkey Hungary UK & North Europe * E&P direct sales Equity * Associates Consolidated G&P E&P 20

21 2.6 Increase Market Share in European Valuable Markets Bcm Iberian peninsula 16.4% North Europe (UK, Hub) 6.2% Germany 11.6% Hungary CAGR Associates Consolidated France % Turkey 2.7%

22 LNG Development: a lever to sustain long term growth Eni equity gas reserves areas Eni target markets Main LNG routes Reserves* (Bcm) * 2004 figures 22

23 UF Gas Development leveraging on Upstream-Downstream Integration LNG Reganosa Damietta Plant: First LNG shipment on January 20th 05 Total outlet capacity 6.84 bcm/y* ** LNG Sagunto Including Eni equity gas * * Other Union Fenosa Gas onwards Damietta Egypt *10% efficiency discounted ** LNG will be delivered also to existing Enagas terminals Oman: 1bcm in 2004 and bcm from

24 LNG Developments Through Integrated Projects Regas. Cameron (Louisiana) - MoU Damietta (Egypt) 2 nd train - MoU 2.0 Regas. Capacity (bcm) Existing/under construction E CAMERON DAMIETTA Liquefaction Capacity (bcm) Existing/under construction E Eni PARTICIPATION Liquefaction Regasification New initiatives New initiatives Equity production Main LNG routes 24

25 LNG Developments Through Equity and Contracted Gas Bcm Eni equity gas reserves areas* North Africa America Reserves* (Bcm) Total gas sales by E&P and G&P CAGR +19% West Middle East Far East Africa * 2004 figures 25

26 G&P: investments profile Billion SRG Powergen Marketing & Distribution Transportation abroad LNG % 5% 18% 27% ~ Snam Rete Gas deconsolidation < % Aver Investments: ~ 4,200 mln in

27 Final Remarks G&P: 2008 strategic targets Increase gas sales in Europe: (+ 14 bcm) Expand LNG sales: (+ 6 bcm total E&P and G&P) Reduce presence in regulated business: SRG deconsolidation in 2007 Complete development in powergen in Italy: (5-6 GW of installed capacity) 2008 free cash flow generation in line with 2004 level LNG development through integrated projects for long term growth 27

28 G&P Business Trends Luciano Sgubini Chief Operating Officer Gas & Power Division London, June 23 rd 2005 EUROPEAN GAS LEADERS CONFERENCE- MERRILL LYNCH