Zions Bank Economic Overview
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1 Zions Bank Economic Overview UAFS & NAIB Convention September 14, 2017
2 National Economic Conditions
3 Dow Breaks 22,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4 Business Optimism Booms Post Election Source: Trading Economics, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
5 Current Level of Consumer Confidence Remains High Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Source: The Conference Board
6 Trumponomics Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act Cut corporate and income taxes Increase spending on infrastructure and military Reduce government regulations Renegotiate trade deals But can they get it done?
7 August Job Indicators Indicator Expectation Actual Total Nonfarm Payrolls 180, ,000 Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4% Private Payrolls 180, ,000 Monthly Average Hourly Wage Growth Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth 0.2% 0.1% 2.5% 2.5% Labor Force Participation 62.9% Sources: Wall street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 156,000 Jobs Added in August 83 rd Consecutive Month of Growth Unemployment Near 16 Year Low 150, % Thousands of Employees 145, , , , % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 125, % Total Nonfarm Employment Unemployment
9 156,000 Jobs Added in August Payroll Change in thousands Million Jobs Lost 16.4 Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
10 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: August 2016 to August 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining 8.8% Construction 3.2% Manufacturing 1.1% Trade, Trans., Utilities 1.5% Information -2.4% Financial Activity 1.8% Prof. & Bus. Serv. 3.0% Ed. & Health Serv. 2.1% Leisure & Hospitality 2.1% Other Services Government 0.0% 1.5% Total: 1.4% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: August 2016 to August 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining 58 Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Wage Growth Stagnant 4.0% 3.5% August % 3.0% Average 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13 68% Labor Force Participation Seeing Little Change 67% 66% 65% 64% August: 62.9% 63% 62% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
14 Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years 68% 66% Mar % 64% 62% 60% 58% Apr % August % 56% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
15 Baby Boomers Head for Retirement 68% 38% U.S. Participation Rate 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% Share of % 20% U.S. Participation Rate Age 55+ Share of Working Age Pop Source: Zions Bank Analysis of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
16 Long-Term Decline of the Teenage Workforce 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Participation Rate Ages Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
17 Gap Between Unemployment and Underemployment Narrows 18% 16% 14% 12% 7.1% 10% 8% 6% 4.2% 4% 2% U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 10,000 The Number of Part-time Workers for Economic Reasons Spiked during the Great Recession Thousands of Employees 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,
19 8 Long-Term Unemployment Drops Unemployed for more than 27 weeks Millions of Persons July 2017: 1.8 m Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Numbers are rounded
20 Job Openings Hit All-Time High in July Level in Thousands 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2, Hires Openings Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
21 Fewer Unemployed Workers Per Job Opening July Unemployed/Openings Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
22 Labor productivity has declined since strong growth during late 1990 s and early 2000 s Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Real output per hour Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
23 Total Compensation $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Employment Cost Index Components of Total Compensation $23.29 $4.32 $0.80 $1.53 $16.64 Q % 3.4% 6.6% $26.42 $4.93 $0.95 $1.87 $5.11 $0.96 $2.08 $18.67 $19.58 Q4 2007: Start of Great Recession $ % 18.4% 3.6% 7.1% 3.5% 7.5% Q1 2010: ACA Signed into Law Salary and Wages Health Insurance Retirement Other Benefits $33.12 $6.22 $1.34 $2.50 $ % 70.7% 70.6% 69.6% Q % 4.0% 7.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
24 Producer Price Index increased in August 5% 4% 3% August 2.4% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Year-to-Year Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
25 Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par 5% 4% 3% Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change July 1.4% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
26 Inflation Continues to Underperform 4.5% 4.0% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% July 1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
27 Median Household Income Hits New High $60,000 $58,000 $56,000 $54,000 $52,000 $50,000 $48,000 In 2015 Dollars $59,039 $46, Source: U.S. Census Bureau
28 Consumer Spending Drives Growth 6.0% 4.0% Q % 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Personal Consumption Fixed Investment Net Exports Inventories Government Real GDP Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
29 The U.S. Dollar has Weakened Since the Start of Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad Index 1997 = 100 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
30 U.S. Total Oil Rigs and Oil Prices 1,700 1,500 $120 $100 Oil Rig Count 1,300 1, $80 $60 $40 Oil Prices 500 $ $0 US Oil Rigs Oil (WTI Crude) Sources: Baker Hughes and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
31 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 4th Increase in Over a Decade Federal Funds Target Rate = Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
32 4% June 2017 Fed Rate Increase Projections 3% 2.9% 3.0% 2% 2.1% 1.4% 1% 0% Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
33 Explosion in the Federal Reserve s Balance Sheet $5.00T $4.50T $4.00T $3.50T $3.00T $2.50T $2.00T $1.50T $1.00T $0.50T Recession QE1 QE2 QE3 $0.00T Mortgage-Backed Securities U.S. Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Other Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
34 3.0% Yield Curve Showing Signs of Distress 10-year minus 2-year spread 2.50% 2.0% 1.50% 1.0% 0.50% 0.0% -0.50% -1.0% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
35 Regional Economic Conditions
36 CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% OH 0.1% KY 0.3% WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss HI 0.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
37 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,051,217 25,412 34, Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population f 2018f Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate, f = forecast
38 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2015 to 2016 Box Elder 2.2% Tooele 3.1% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.2% Rich 1.0% Weber 1.7% Morgan 3.1% Summit Salt Lake 2.1% 1.5% Utah 3.0% Wasatch 4.7% Duchesne -2.1% Daggett -1.4% Uintah -3.7% State Average = 2.0% Juab 4.2% Carbon -0.2% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% Millard 0.4% Beaver 1.9% Piute -2.5% Sanpete 2.1% Sevier 1.6% Wayne 0.0% Emery -1.3% Grand 0.9% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Iron 3.4% Washington 3.1% Kane 3.0% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 7.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
39 CA 1.7% OR 2.9% WA 2.2% NV 2.7% ID 2.3% UT 2.5% AZ 1.2% Utah Employment Growth 5 th Highest in the Nation Percent Change in Employment for States: July 2016 to July 2017 U.S. Rate = 1.5% AK -0.3% MT 1.1% WY -1.1% HI 1.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.2% ND 1.5% SD 0.4% NE 1.2% KS -0.8% TX 2.4% OK 1.1% MN 2.1% IA 1.0% MO 2.0% AR 2.7% WI 0.9% LA 0.6% IL 0.6% MS 0.5% MI 1.4% IN 0.9% TN 1.7% AL 1.6% OH 0.9% KY 1.2% GA 2.2% VT 0.3% WV 0.2% PA 1.0% NC 1.5% SC 1.4% VA 1.5% FL 2.7% NH 1.8% NY 1.5% ME 1.0% DC 2.4% CT 0.7% DE 0.3% MD 1.9% MA 1.3% RI 1.7% NJ 1.2% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
40 Utah Total Employment at New Highs Thousands of Employees 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Loss of 92,000 jobs from Gain of 295,700 jobs from low in Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand Total Nonfarm Employment
41 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: July 2016 to July 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -5.8% -4.8% Total: 2.9% 7.3% 2.5% 3.3% 2.1% 5.2% 2.9% 2.1% 4.4% 1.9% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
42 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: July 2016 to July 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining -500 Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information-1,800 Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 6,900 3,100 6,800 1,700 5,300 3,000 1,800 4,300 10,700 Total: 49,300-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
43 Utah Employment Change Rates By County July 2016 to July 2017 State Rate = 2.9% Box Elder 3.2% Tooele 1.3% Juab 1.0% Cache 2.4% Rich -2.6% Weber 1.9% Da1is 4.0% Morgan 5.2% Salt Lake 2.6% Utah 5.7% Summit 2.9% Wasatch 3.5% Duchesne 3.2% Carbon -2.3% Daggett -4.5% Uintah 0.0% 5.0% + 3.3% to 4.9% 1.0% to 3.2% Millard 2.0% Beaver 2.3% Piute 7.1% Sanpete 2.0% Sevier 2.7% Emery -4.3% Wayne 1.7% Grand 2.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Iron 4.8% Garfield 1.6% San Juan 1.5% Washington 5.4% Kane 3.6% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted
44 Utah Unemployment 15 th Lowest in the Nation OR 3.8% CA 4.8% WA 4.5% NV 4.8% ID 3.0% UT 3.5% AZ 5.1% MT 3.9% WY 4.0% CO 2.4% NM 6.3% July 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.3% ND 2.2% SD 3.1% NE 2.8% KS 3.7% OK 4.4% MN 3.7% IA 3.2% MO 3.8% AR 3.4% WI 3.2% IL 4.8% MS 5.2% MI 3.7% IN 3.1% TN 3.4% AL 4.5% OH 5.2% KY 5.3% GA 4.8% WV 4.8% VT 3.1% PA 5.0% NC 4.1% SC 3.9% VA 3.8% NH 2.8% NY 4.8% ME 3.7% DC 6.4% CT 5.0% DE 4.8% MD 4.1% MA 4.3% RI 4.3% NJ 4.2% 6.0% + 5.5% to 5.9% AK 7.0% TX 4.3% LA 5.3% FL 4.1% 4.8% to 5.4% 4.0% to 4.7% 3.9% or less HI 2.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
45 Utah Unemployment Rates By County July 2017 State Rate = 3.5% B4x Elder 3.5% Tooele 3.8% Juab 3.5% Cache 2.8% Weber 3.8% Morgan Davis 3.2% 3.1% Salt Lake 3.2% Utah 3.0% Rich 3.4% Summit 3.1% Wasatch 3.4% Duchesne 5.8% Carbon 5.3% Daggett 5.6% Uintah 6.3% 7.0% + 6.0% to 6.9% 4.0% to 5.9% Millard 3.6% Beaver 4.0 Piute 5.5% Sanpete 4.1% Sevier 4.1% Emery 5.7% Grand 5.4% Wayne 8.0% 3.2% to 3.9% 3.1% or lower Iron 4.3% Garfield 7.7% San Juan 7.2% Washington 3.5% Kane 3.5% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
46 Utah, Idaho, and Washington Tied for Highest Personal Income Growth in the Country Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis CA 4.8% WA 4.9% OR 3.8% NV 4.8% AK 1.6% Percent Change in Personal Income : 2016 Q Q1 U.S. = 3.7%; UT = 4.9% ID = 4.9% ID 4.9% UT 4.9% AZ 3.8% MT 3.7% WY -0.5% HI 3.0% CO 4.4% NM 2.2% ND 1.0% SD 2.5% NE 1.2% KS 2.5% TX 3.2% OK 1.2% MN 3.6% IA 1.9% MO 3.5% AR 3.1% WI 3.1% LA 3.0% IL 2.2% MS 2.4% MI 4.4% IN 4.0% TN 4.4% AL 3.2% 4.0% or more 3.6% to 3.9% 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease OH 3.6% % WV 1.9% GA 3.8% VT 1.6% PA 3.9 % NC 4.4% SC 4.6% VA 4.4% FL 4.6% NH 3.1% NY 3.0% ME 2.9% DC 4.4% CT 2.5% DE 3.6% MD 4.9% MA 3.8% RI 3.0% NJ 3.5%
47 Utah Poverty Rate 5 th Lowest in the Nation CA 13.9% WA 11.4% OR 11.9% NV 13.0% AK 9.2% ID 12.3% UT 9.3% AZ 17.2% 2015 U.S. Rate = 13.5%, 2015 Utah Rate = 9.3% MT 11.9% WY 9.8% HI 10.9% CO 9.9% NM 19.7% ND 10.7% SD 13.9% NE 10.3% KS 14.2% TX 14.7% OK 14.2% MN 7.8% IA 10.4% MO 9.8% AR 16.1% WI 11.4% LA 18.6% IL 10.9% MS 19.1% MI 12.8% IN 13.5% TN 14.7% AL 16.3% 10.0% or less 10.1% to 11.0% OH 13.6% KY 19.5% WV 14.5% VT 10.7% PA 12.3% VA 10.9% NC 15.3% SC 14.3% GA 18.1% FL 16.2% NH 7.3% NY 14.2% 11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate) 13.6% to 16.0% 16.1% or more ME 12.3% DC 16.6% CT 9.1% DE 11.1% MD 9.6% MA 11.5% RI 11.8% NJ 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
48 Consumer Sentiment on the Rise Above 110 indicates economic prosperity U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index: 115 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Sources: Conference Board and Cicero Group
49 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Sep-11 Dec-11 Consumer Price Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 United States CPI: +1.7% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +3.4% Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
50 Economic Positives Strong consumer and business confidence Trumponomics pro growth agenda The Western US has: Strong population growth Strong employment growth Low unemployment Strong income growth Utah inflation is strong Economic Negatives National and international uncertainty Trumponomics success? Depressed business investment Unstable inflation outlook Skills mismatch Low productivity growth Overregulation from Washington
51 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone:
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