CHINA S RISE & A CHANGING WORLD NOVEMBER 7, 2017 KOÇ UNIVERSITY

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1 CHINA S RISE & A CHANGING WORLD NOVEMBER 7, 2017 KOÇ UNIVERSITY

2 GDP, Current Price, Trillion USD Chinese Economy Rising Source: UN Statistical Division 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 France Germany Italy Japan Spain Turkey UK China 1,00 0,

3 Crude Steel Production CRS 2010

4 Expressway System Lenght km

5 China Impact Trade Domestic Market & FDI China s Investments Financial Impact & Fx Reserves International Projects Asia Centered World Economy Plight of the Middle Class? Rise of Populism?

6 Drivers of Past Growth SAVINGS DEMOGRAPHICS ADMINISTRATIVE SYSTEM FINANCIAL SYSTEM WAGES HUKOU

7 Potential Dampeners SAVINGS DEMOGRAPHICS ADMINISTRATIVE SYSTEM FINANCIAL SYSTEM WAGES HUKOU

8 More Dampeners SAVINGS DEMOGRAPHICS ADMINISTRATIVE SYSTEM MIDDLE INCOME TRAP FINANCIAL SYSTEM WAGES HUKOU POST STIMULUS PROBLEMS

9 China & Knowledge Power R&D Expenditure Education & Researchers Study Abroad Publications Patents Process & Product Innovation Industry Results Successes

10 Post Stimulus Problems Global Crisis & Chinese Response Debt Problem Over Capacity Shadow Banking Housing Markets

11 Q&A

12 Manufacturing Value Added Current USD UN Data 3,5E+12 3E+12 2,5E+12 2E+12 1,5E+12 1E+12 5E US CH

13 Top 10 Comparison countries

14

15 Recent Quarterly Growth Trading Economics

16 GDP 2011 Ranking World Bank Rank Country Million Int. Dollar 1 United States China Japan Germany France Brazil United Kingdom Italy Russian Federation India Turkey Singapore

17 Making GDP comparable Statistical inaccuracies Exchange rates Managed rates Financial flows Prices Frictions-distortions-tastes Non traded goods and services Purchasing Power Parity World Bank-ICP 2005, 2011 Penn World Tables-PWT 2005, 2011(2009)

18 GDP 2011 ppp Ranking World Bank Rank Country Million Int. Dollar 1 United States China India Japan Germany Russian Federation Brazil France United Kingdom Italy Turkey Singapore

19 GDP percap 2011 ppp Ranking World Bank Rank Country Million Int. Dollar 1 Luxembourg Qatar Macao SAR, China Norway Singapore Kuwait Hong Kong SAR, China Switzerland United States United Arab Emirates Turkey China 8.466

20 Ranking-Change & Significance Using PWT 7.1 July GDP= 47 B Yuan PPP adjusted T USD Probably overtake US in 2013? The significance of GDP rankings Assumptions and Uncertainties GDP and per capita GDP

21 2 WEIGHT OF INDUSTRY

22 Üretimin Bileşenleri Trilyon ABD Doları GDP by Components China US 2010 Current USD 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 China USA 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 Agriculture Industry Manufacturing Construction Trade Transport Other

23 Classification

24 Other

25 Manufacturing-GDP share %

26 Sectoral Classification Primary Sector (Agriculture) Secondary Sector (Industry) Industry Manufacturing Mining Utilities Construction Tertiary Sector (Services) Transportation, Storage and Post Information Transmission, Computer Services Wholesale and Retail Trade Hotel and Catering Services Financial Intermediation Real Estate Leasing and Business Services Scientific Research, Technical Services and Geological Prospecting Management of Water Conservancy, Environment and Public Facilities Services to Households and Other Services Education Health, Social Security and Social Welfare Culture, Sports and Entertainment Public Management and Social Organization

27 Sector Shares in GDP 2011 % World Bank AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY SERVICES China 10,3 46,2 43,4 Korea 2,8 36,8 60,4 Japan 1,2 25,9 72,9 Singapore 0,0 27,9 72,1 Turkey 9,3 25,9 64,7 Germany 0,8 26,8 72,4 United Kingdom 0,7 21,2 78,1 United States 1,1 19,6 79,3 World 2,7 25,2 72,0 European Union 1,5 24,1 74,5 Upper middle income 7,3 36,2 56,5

28 Agricult GDPShare-Income Level World Bank High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income

29 Services Share by Income Level World Bank % High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income

30 Industry GDPShare-Income Level World Bank % High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income

31 Service Share & Implications Trends Change by service type Personal-Household vs. Business Specialization vs. Industry shares Role of government services Role of off-shoring Implications Employement Wages

32 3 Saving and Investment Rates

33 Investment and Growth A simple model Harrod-Domar K/Y=Capital-Output ratio (COR) dk/dy=k, incremental COR, icor dy=(1/k)*dk dy/y= (1/k)*dK/Y g= i/k Growth rate= Investment rate/k HIGHER the INVESTMENT HIGHER the GROWTH Not necessarily vice versa

34 Chinese ICOR thru time Beim, 2011 Avg investment in preceeding 3 years/change in GDP

35 Limitations of the COR approach Product innovations Productivity improvements Changes in capacity utilization Efficiency of investment Project selection-profitability İmplementation efficiency Different types-impacts Residential, Infrastucture, Plant and Equipment

36 Investment Rate over Time %GDP 50,0% 45,0% 40,0% 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% Fixed Capital Formation-gross Inventory Accumulation Total Capital Formation 0,0%

37 Country Investment Rates 2010 World Bank REGION Investment Rate % China 47,7 Turkey 20,0 Singapore 22,1 USA 15,2 EU 18,6 World 19,9

38 Country Investment Rates % World Bank 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 China Korea, Rep. Japan Singapore Turkey Germany Netherlands United Kingdom United States 10,0 0,0

39 Investment Rate Income Groups World Bank High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income

40 Funding the Investments Savings Identity Y+NFP=C+I+X-M+NFP S=I+CA s= i + CA/Y Private and Government components of Consumption and Investment Saving deficit and surplus

41 Country Savings Rates 2010 World Bank REGION Saving Rate % China 52,8 Turkey 13,7 Singapore 46,6 USA 12,0 EU 18,6 World 19,9

42 Country Savings Rates % World Bank China Korea, Rep. Japan Singapore Turkey Germany Netherlands United Kingdom United States

43 Savings Rates Income Level % World Bank High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income

44 Saving and Investment Rates 2010 Savings Rate % Investment Rate % China 52,8 47,7 Turkey 13,7 20,0 Singapore 46,6 22,1 USA 12,0 15,2 EU 18,6 18,6 World 19,9 19,9 Q: What are the Current Account Deficit/Surpluses of these countries as % GDP?

45 4 Level of integration with the world

46 Channels of International Economic Interaction International Trade Exports Imports International Direct Investment Inward Outward International Financial Investment Inflow Outflow

47 Top Export-Importers 2011 WTO Rank Exporters Value Share Rank Importers Value Share 1 China ,4 1 2 United States ,3 United States ,1 2 China ,5 3 Germany ,1 3 Germany ,8 4 Japan 823 4,5 4 Japan 855 4,6 5 Netherlands 661 3,6 5 France 714 3,9 6 France 596 3,3 6 UK 638 3,5 7 Korea, 555 3,0 7 Netherlands 599 3,2 8 Italy 523 2,9 8 Italy 557 3,0 9 Russia 522 2,9 9 Korea 524 2,8 10 Belgium 477 2,6 10 Hong Kong 511 2,8

48 China Share-World Exports % UNCTAD

49 Export Share-Product Category 35,0 UNCTAD 30,0 Total all products 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 Manufactured goods (SITC 5 to 8 less 667 and 68) 7) Chemical products (SITC 5) Machinery and transport equipment (SITC Other manufactured goods (SITC less 667 and 68) Iron and steel (SITC 67) Textile fibres, yarn, fabrics and clothing (SITC ) 0,

50 Exports Close Up 2010 Manufacturing Exports Share: 15 + % Data processing Equipment : 46 % D/P including Hongkong : 50 % Data Communication Eq. : 40 %

51 Billions USD Top two FDI destinations World Bank China USA

52 Industry Output Share-Ownership NBS % 18% 31% 42% State Private HK, Macao, TW Foreign

53 China-Outward Direct Investment 75 Billion USD in 2011 One of the top source countries 178 countries, companies Green field and M&A Expected to exceed inward FDI by 2015 Cumulative 2-3 Trillion USD by 2010?

54 USD Million Chinese ODI over time

55 FDI-Top Source countries 2010 UNCTAD

56 Financial Investments FDI vs. Financial Investments Capital Controls Outward flows Relatively low control Official reserves and investment Private flows? Inward flows severely restricted

57 China-Official Reserves SAFE, Monthly Data Dec 1999 June 2012, Billion USD

58 5 Government s Role

59 Growth oriented management system Fiscal-Administrative Decentralization vs. Political Levels of administration and depth of decentralization Scope for local initiative Human Resouces Management Growth Incentives

60 Goverment Expenditures-Central Share 2010 % 90 OECD and NBS Canada France Germany Netherlans UK USA China

61 Administrative Structure Center Province Level Municipality Level 300 County Level 3000 Township Level 40,000 Village 700,000 (1M natural)

62 Administrative regions

63 6 Distribution of enterpreneurial and industrial skills

64 ,0 Registered non-agricultural institutional employment Millions 200,0 150,0 100,0 TVE non TVE 50,0 0,0

65 Registered non agricultural institutional employment % 42% 58% TVE non TVE

66 Low Reginal and Firm Level Concentration of Industry Regional Dispersion 27 of 31 provinces have auto idustry Similar in all industries Industry Concentration Low CR levels compared to other countries-except SOE dominated sectors Steel: Top 4 less than 20% Auto: Top 5 less than 35% Large number of producers per sector 150 Auto Producer 8.ooo Auto Supplier Steel Producer

67 Impacts Disadvantages Problem benefiting from Economies of Scale Efficiency-environment Advantage Availability of industry and management skills Fertile enterpreneurial eco-system

68 7 Scale of social cultural change

69 Traditional>Socialist>Market Based economy & Society Culture: Family-Society-Individual Authority: Emperor-Party-Markets Social Security: Up and down Equality: Up and down Rising status of the business person

70 Gini Coefficient Gini over time National Rural Urban 0

71 One Person in Every 1400 in China has at least 10 Million Yuan Chinese Wealthy Hurun Report 2012 Wealth Limit M Y Number Avg. age Wealthy , Super wealthy , Billionaire ,000 1 in 1300 wealthy 2nd largest middle class: M

72 Income Level Classification Low-income and middle-income economies are sometimes referred to as developing economies. Income group: Economies are divided according to 2011 GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. The groups are: low income, $1,025 or less; lower middle income, $1,026 - $4,035; upper middle income, $4,036 - $12,475; CHINA & TURKEY high income, $12,476 or more.

73 Sectoral Classification Primary Sector (Agriculture) Secondary Sector (Industry in general sense) Industry Manufacturing Mining Utilities Construction Tertiary Sector (Services) Transportation, Storage and Post Information Transmission, Computer Services Wholesale and Retail Trade Hotel and Catering Services Financial Intermediation Real Estate Leasing and Business Services Scientific Research, Technical Services and Geological Prospecting Management of Water Conservancy, Environment and Public Facilities Services to Households and Other Services Education Health, Social Security and Social Welfare Culture, Sports and Entertainment Public Management and Social Organization

74 References The Future of Chinese Growth,David O. Beim, 2011

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