National Housing Trends
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1 National Housing Trends
2 34% America s Choice of Best Long Term Investment 26% 17% 15% 6% Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds Gallup 2018
3
4 Home Sales in thousands P 2019P 6,277 6,270 6,158 6,180 6,123 6,120 6,123 6,065 6,075 6,070 6,042 6,092 MBA NAR Freddie Mac Fannie Mae
5 Projected Home Price % Appreciation Going Forward Source HPES Zelman & Assoc N/A N/A MBA N/A Freddie Mac N/A N/A NAR N/A N/A Fannie Mae N/A N/A AVERAGE
6 Housing Affordability 197 Index 1990 to Today Years when distressed properties dominated the market National Association of Realtors
7 1,400 1,200 1, Overbuilt during Housing Boom Residential New Construction The market needs more new homes! Underbuilt Housing need since the Bust Census Bureau
8 Upcoming Recession? Wall Street Journal survey of economists predicts a recession in 2020 Pulsenomics survey of economists and analysts predicts a recession in 2020 Recession Housing Crisis
9 When Will Next U.S. Recession Begin? 59% 48% Wall Street Journal survey of private-sector economists 24% 22% Pulsenomics survey of economists, investment strategists and real estate market analysts 14% 0% 4% 8% 8% 9% 4% 1% after 2022 Pulsenomics and WSJ
10 When do you expect U.S housing market conditions to shift decidedly in favor of home buyers? 43% 5% 7% 13% 18% 6% 9% Shifted already Prior to EOY After 2022 Home Price Expectation Survey Q
11 U.S. Northeast Midwest West -1.5% South -0.5% -4.1% -5.6% EXISTING Home Sales Y-O-Y by region -12.2% NAR 11/2018
12 Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price CoreLogic
13 Average Days on the Market NAR
14 Seller Traffic NAR
15 Buyer Traffic NAR
16 Foot Traffic indicator of future sales January February March April May June July August September October November December NAR 11/2018
17 Historical Mortgage Rates Have Averaged Around 8%
18 Mortgage Rate Projections Quarter Freddie Mac Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Four Q Q Q Q /2018
19 Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 - Actual - Projected Rate Q Q Q Q Q4 Freddie Mac
20 Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A Significant Difference In Home Affordability Amount Of Mortgage 3.5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 5% Mortgage 30-Year Cost 8% Mortgage 30-Year Cost $200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120 $300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360 $400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600 $500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480 $1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320
21 Greater Metro Atlanta Market December 2018 Report With Results Through November 2018
22 Metro Atlanta Homes Sold YTD Closed Units 2.3% Higher Than Pending Units Up 2.1%. Closed Volume Up 9%.
23 Metro Atlanta Closings 9000 Prior Year Current Month November Closings Down 7.5% Compared To October Closings November 2018 Closings Up 1.4% Compared To November 2017
24 Metro Atlanta Closings November 2018 (Number Of Transactions By Price) % Of Transactions In $100K-$500K Price Range < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-$1 mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil +
25 Metro Atlanta Closed Units By Price Point November 2018 Compared To November < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-$1 mil $1 mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil +
26 Listed Inventory January 2012 November 2018 Residential Detached, Metro Atlanta Inventory Up 30% From Recent Bottom Of Feb Inventory Down 3.8% From Last Month, Up 7.5% Compared To Last Year
27 7270 Metro Atlanta New Listings New Listings up 3.9% Compared to Last Year. Down 22.3% From Last Month.
28 Months of Inventory Change The Market Strategy LESS THAN 6 MONTHS BETWEEN 6-7 MONTHS GREATER THAN 7 MONTHS SELLERS MARKET Home prices will appreciate NEUTRAL MARKET Home prices will only appreciate with inflation BUYERS MARKET Home prices will depreciate
29 Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (November 2018, Based On Closed Sales) 22 6 Months Supply Is Considered Normal Market < $100K $100K-$200K $200K-$500K $500K-1 Mil $1 Mil - $2 Mil $2 Mil + Total Metro Atlanta Months Of Inventory Is 3.7 Months
30 Metro Atlanta Monthly Average Sale Prices $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 ASP $308,000 In October. ASP $304,000 Last Month. Up 1.3% From Last Month. Up 7.6% From Last November.
31 Metro Atlanta Annual Average Sale Prices $261 $268 $209 $189 $190 $176 $183 $229 $250 $266 $276 $289 $ Annual ASP Up 74% From Bottom Of 2011
32 Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta Jan 2010 Through Sept 2018 (Reported November 27, 2018) Home Values Up 75% From Recent Bottom Of March 2012.
33 Case-Shiller Gain/ Loss For Metro Atlanta Comparisons Based On The Latest Case Shiller Index Compared To The Average Index For The Year Property Was Purchased. Year Property Bought Gain/ Loss Year Property Bought Gain/ Loss % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2018 YTD 2.04% Case Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta - September 2018 As Reported November 27, Micro Local Markets And Price Points May Have Significantly Different Outcomes.
34 Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta Recent Bottom Was March Metro Average Home Values Back To Normal Trend Line.
35
36 Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Georgia Properties
37 YTD Closed Units November 2018 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent 11,286 10,574 7,048 5,079 4,968 4,304 3,632 BHHS KW-AP ATL Comm MB HNR CB AFH Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.
38 YTD Closed Volume November 2018 FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent ($ Volume in Billions) $3.74 $2.87 $2.28 $2.15 $1.91 $1.40 $1.21 BHHS KW-AP HNR AFH ATL Comm CB MB Information Provided By Trendgraphix and BHHS GP Internal Reports.
39 Georgia Economic & Housing Trends
40 Top State For Business Site Selection Magazine 6 Years in a Row!
41 Buyers Moving To Atlanta! Here is the Top 10 List including previous rank: 1. Atlanta (1) 2. Phoenix (4) 3. Tampa/Sarasota (2) 4. Dallas/Fort Worth (3) 5. Orlando (5) 6. Denver (7) 7. Houston (8) 8. Seattle (6) 9. Las Vegas (10) 10.Chicago (9) Penske Truck Rental published their latest moving destination list and Atlanta was ranked #1 for the 6 th year in a row. The trend of moving to the sunbelt has returned. Desirable attributes that help Metro Atlanta include a business friendly environment, low cost of living for a metro area, airport, moderate weather with 4 seasons and a high quality of life.
42 Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close To Their Children & Grandchildren. Rank of Share Total Population Under Dallas 6,144, Atlanta 5,271, Phoenix 4,179, Denver 2,466, Riverside 4,081, Houston 5,629, Portland 2,174, Seattle 3,309, Sacramento 2,091, Washington 5,306,125 Metro 14 Atlanta 3 Has 23 The: Los Angeles 12,875, San Diego 2,974,859 #2 Population 8 14 Age San Francisco 4,203, Orlando 2,032, Minneapolis #5 Population Under 20 3,208, Chicago 9,522, New York 18,815, Boston 4,482, Cincinnati 2,134, Baltimore 2,668, Detroit 4,467, Philadelphia 5,827, St. Louis 2,802, Miami 5,413, Tampa 2,723, Cleveland 2,096, Source :Census Bureau Pittsburgh 2,355,
43 Rustbelt To Sunbelt
44 Population & Employment Growth Trends
45 Population & Employment Growth Trends U.S. Conference of Mayors Report predicts that Metro Atlanta will be the 6 th largest city in the nation by Metro Atlanta will grow from 5.8 million residents to 8.6 million residents. That means 2.8 million people will move to our area! This is great news for our long-term real estate values!
National Housing Trends
National Housing Trends 34% America s Choice of Best Long Term Investment 26% 17% 15% 6% Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds Gallup 2018 Housing Affordability 197 Index
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