This presentation contains preliminary data. Do not cite these data. Photography by Jake Davis
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1 This presentation contains preliminary data Do not cite these data Photography by Jake Davis
2 Study Team Members Dan Bjornlie (WGFD) Steve Cherry (MSU) Cecily Costello (MTFWP) Kevin Frey (MTFWP) Jennifer Fortin-Noreus (FWS) Kerry Gunther (NPS) Dave Gustine (NPS) Mark Haroldson (USGS) Pat Hnilicka (FWS) Curtis Hendricks (IDFG) Wayne Kasworm (FWS) Dan Thompson (WGFD) Dan Tyers (USFS) Frank van Manen (USGS) Kate Wilmot (NPS)
3 When you are studying any matter, or considering any philosophy, ask yourself only what are the facts and what is the truth that the facts bear out. Never let yourself be diverted either by what you wish to believe, or by what you think would have beneficent social effects if it were believed. But look only, and solely, at what are the facts. Bertrand Russell
4 Population estimates and trend Mortalities and mortality rates Occupancy by females with offspring Known-fate monitoring Food monitoring Some results are preliminary
5 National Parks = 10,344 km 2 Recovery Zone = 23,828 km 2 Demographic Monitoring Area (DMA) = 49,931 km 2
6 National Parks = 10,344 km 2 Recovery Zone = 23,828 km 2 Demographic Monitoring Area (DMA) = 49,931 km 2 Grizzly bear distribution = 58,314 km 2
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8 Annual counts based on Knight et al. (1995) rule set : sightings of unique females with cubs Cherry et al. (2007) applied estimator to correct for sighting heterogeneity (Chao2) Trend over time
9 54 aerial observation areas Round 1: 53 units Round 2: 42 units 1 unit not flown (BMU 38) 193 survey hours 307 groups (441 grizzly bears) X
10 144 observations 68 aerial (47%) 76 ground (53%)
11 144 observations 68 aerial (47%) 76 ground (53%) 50 unique F COY in the GYE Mean litter size = 1.96 Litter sizes 15 single (30%) 22 twins (44%) 13 triplets (26%)
12 144 observations 68 aerial (47%) 76 ground (53%) 50 unique F COY in the GYE Mean litter size = 1.96 Litter sizes 15 single (30%) 22 twins (44%) 13 triplets (26%) 45 unique females with cubs in DMA 9 individuals partially, 5 individuals fully outside the DMA
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14
15 Parameter Estimate Unique females with cubs 45 Chao2 50 Model-averaged Chao2 54
16 Females with cubs Chao2 Model average 0 Year
17 Females with cubs Chao2 Model average 0 Year
18 Derived from: Model-averaged Chao2 estimate of number of females with cubs vital rates and derived age structure to estimate population segments
19 95% CI Population segment Estimate Lower Upper Independent females ( 2yrs old) Independent males ( 2yrs old) Dependent young (cubs and yearlings) Total
20 Chao2 estimate True no. females with cubs Schwartz et al. (2008)
21 18 of 18 Bear Management Units (BMUs) occupied during of 18 BMUs occupied at least 4 of last 6 years ( )
22
23 33 known and probable mortalities in DMA 30 human-caused 2 natural 1 undetermined cause 20 outside the DMA All 20 human-caused 1 additional mortality from 2015 documented, sex unknown Mortalities
24 Age class Dependent Independent Area Sex (<2 years old) ( 2 years old) Total Female Inside DMA Male Unknown Total Outside DMA Female Male Unknown Total
25 Natural Malicious Hunting Related Site Conflicts / human injury Livestock related Accidental Undetermined Percent Inside DMA Outside DMA
26 7 males (5 subadults) 2 females (both subadults) Average = 1.9/year
27
28 All adult males
29 Population segment Independent females ( 2yrs old) Independent males ( 2yrs old) Dependent young (<2yrs old) Estimated N Documented mortality Estimated total mortality Estimate % mortality
30 Remote
31 Total captures = 108 Research = 59 Management = 49 Individuals bears = 96 Females = 33 Males = 63 New bears = 57
32 Percent new Individuals New captures Individuals Year
33 Percent new Individuals New captures Individuals Year
34 Total captures = 144
35 Total captures = 151
36 Total monitored = 106 Adult females = 28 Currently radio-marked = 64 Females = 30 Males = 34 Bears missing = 0 /van Manen
37 VHF Flight hours = 790 Observations of radiomarked bears = 548
38
39
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41 Results through 2014 Over 900 individuals genotyped (20 microsatellite markers) No evidence of non-gye ancestry in any of the individuals genotyped to date
42
43 Survey Area Total carcasses Elk Bison Mule deer, pronghorn, bighorn Carcasses /km Firehole Norris Heart Lake Mud Volcano Northern Range Total
44 Number (x 1,000) or Effort Lake trout number Gillnet effort unit Year Yellowstone Center for Resources
45 Mean cutthroat trout / survey Mean grizzly activity / survey Cutthroat Trout Year Yellowstone Center for Resources
46 Mean cutthroat trout / survey Mean grizzly activity / survey Cutthroat Trout Grizzly Activity Year Yellowstone Center for Resources
47 30 confirmed sites multiple observations of bears feeding during more than 1 year 14 possible sites single observation of bear(s) feeding
48 Observations of 301 grizzly bears on 19 (43%) of the 44 sites 26% (n = 13) of 50 initial observations of unique females with cubs Josh Westerhold
49 Confirmed Sites % Sites Used No. Sites % Used
50 Confirmed Sites % Sites Used No. Sites % Used
51 No. bears Groups Bears Year
52 21 transects 185 trees surveyed Average no. of cones/tree = 35.9
53 Mean cones/tree
54 Live WBP trees
55 Population Population estimate = 690 No major change in trend since early 2000s No evidence of bears leaving core of ecosystem Mortality 38% of all mortalities occurred outside the DMA Primary causes: livestock, accidental (road kills and drownings), and site conflicts 2016 DMA mortality limits not exceeded to date Year of relatively good food supply Low availability of winter-killed carcasses Good berry production Above average whitebark pine cone production
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57 IDFG: P. Atwood, R. Cavallaro, C. de Caussin, J. Farr, K. Guy, C. Hendricks, C. Johnson, D. Kelsey, L. Lane, J. Nicholson, D. Petersen, J. Rydalch; MSU: S. Cherry, C. Peck; MTFWP: J. Cunningham, D. Fagone, K. Frey, C. Kerin, J. Knarr, B. Lloyd, A. Nelson, J. Ramsey, J. Smith, D. Scott, J. Smolczynski, S. Stewart; NPS: K. Atkins, C. Ausprung, D. Bergum, N. Bowersock, E. Boyd, S. Consolo-Murphy, R. Coscarelli, S. Dewey, Erwin, C. Flaherty, K. Gunther, D. Gustine, K. Harrigan, D. Harris, Q. Harrison, J. Jakicic, E. Johnston, E. Laubach, S. Mayberry, J. Mohr, E. Reinertson, T. Ritter, J. Roper, W. Scherer, D. Schneider, J. Schwabedissen, K. Simpson, J. Stephenson, K. Szcodronski, B. Tatu, T. Tatu, J. Warren, K. Wilmot, T. Wyman; Pilots and Observers: S. Ard, N. Cadwell, J. Ortman, M. Packila, T. Schell; Shoshone and Arapaho Tribes: A. Lawson, B. Snyder, W. Thayer; USFS: A. Pils, S. Pils, D. Tyers, J. Wilder; USFWS: Baker, S. Conrad, D. Dewey, P. Hnilicka, C. Hoover, M. Mazur, C. Servheen, S. Stoinski, B. Stone; USGS: C. Dickinson, M. Ebinger, M. Haroldson, B. Karabensh, M. Kurzen, F. van Manen, V. Villalobos, C. Whitman; WS: J. Rosst; WGFD: G. Anderson, C. Atkinson, K. Bales, B. Baker, D. Bjornlie, M. Boyce, J. Clapp, R. Clapp, C. Clark, A. Courtemanch, Crane, B. Debolt, L. Ellsbury, Gerharter, P. Gerrity, M. Gocke, Haley, Hunter, R. Kindermann, J. Kraft, B. Kroger, K. Lash, D. Lasseter, D. Lemon, S. Lockwood, D. McWhirter, K. Mills, P. Quick, Richins, Ryder, Sculloch, J. Stephens, S. Stephens, S. Stewart, D. Thompson, Z. Turnbull, J. Winter, Wood.
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